Archive for 2015

Debt-To-GDP Ratios Demand Debt Jubilee

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Sprott Money.

Jeff Nielson for Sprott Money

In the 1980’s, Canada was governed by (at that time) the most incompetent, fiscally irresponsible regime in the Western world: Brian Mulroney’s “Conservative” government. In a mere eight years; Canada’s national debt tripled, and its debt-to-GDP ratio soared to what was (at the time) an astronomical level above 70%.

Canada was considered to be in an official “debt crisis”. What is meant by the term debt-crisis? It’s all a function of simple arithmetic. It is where the total debt-load approaches a point where it is no longer mathematically possible for the economy to remain viable over the long term.

While the precise quantum where an economy passes “the point of no return” is somewhat dependent upon economic assumptions; a very crude standard is the 100%-level. Once an economy accumulates a mountain of debt equal to its entire, national, economic output; that economy no longer has sufficient financial/economic mass to (responsibly) “service” this mountain of debt.

In other words, once past that point-of-no-return, as a simple function of arithmetic it is inevitable that total debt (and thus total interest payments) must just continue to go higher and higher and higher, until…? Outright bankruptcy. The economic Holy Grail of a “balanced budget” is no longer even mathematically possible; maintaining the same fiscal course is nothing less than economic suicide.

With the only possible (long-term) outcome being national bankruptcy, and with every year a government continues past the point-of-no-return inflicting enormous, additional, economic harm; once past the point-of-no-return any legitimate/responsible government would immediately look to either “restructure” (i.e. reduce) its total debt-load – or simply default (i.e. declare Debt Jubilee).

In the case of Canada, its debt-crisis of the 1980’s led to a new, fiscally responsible government taking power: Jean Chretien’s Liberal government. Its harsh fiscal management produced a full decade of budget surpluses, where the debt-to-GDP ratio was roughly cut in half.

It was an example of successful “Austerity”, the only such success, anywhere in the Western world, over the past quarter-century. It was successful precisely because Canada had not yet passed that economic point-of-no-return.

Flash ahead roughly a quarter century. Canada has a new Conservative regime, meaning another woefully incompetent/grossly irresponsible government. Not only has Stephen Harper undone all of Canada’s previous debt-reduction during his “reign of error”; but Canada’s debt-to-GDP…
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Xiaomi's $64 Camera Burns GoPro, But Boosts Ambarella

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Xiaomi's $64 Camera Burns GoPro, But Boosts Ambarella

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GoPro Inc (NASDAQ: GPRO) stock is down more than 4 percent on Monday after Chinese smartphone company Xiaomi launched a wearable action camera that offers similar features as the GoPro Hero camera.

The new Yi Action Camera retails at $64, half the price of the GoPro Hero, which is available for $130. It features a 16-megapixel camera, which can shoot 1080p video at 60 frames per second, better than the Hero (which shoots 1080p video at 30 fps, or 720p film at 60 fps). The device also has a better image sensor than the Hero, and double the storage space.

Although the Yi will first be obtainable in China only, analysts are already speculating about an international release.

Where Does Ambarella Come In?

Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ: AMBA) shares are up more than 6.6 percent on Monday following the news of the Yi launch. Why?

The new Yi camera features an integrated Ambarella A7LS high-performance camera processor. This, and other specs are featured on the Chinese Yi site

Here are the specs, translated into English:

  • Length X width X height: 60.4mm x42mm X21.2mm
  • Body weight: 72g
  • Ambarella A7LS high-performance image processor
  • Sony 16 million pixel back-illuminated Exmor R BSI CMOS image sensor
  • HD optical glass aspherical lens / F2.8 large aperture 155 ° super wide-angle
  • ST high-performance three-axis gravity sensor
  • Professional diving depth of up to 40 meters (waterproof shell accessories sold separately)
  • Storage: Maximum support Micro SD 64G

screen_shot_2015-03-02_at_16.01.51.png

Image credit: Public Domain

Posted-In: Sony XiaomiLong Ideas News Short Ideas Movers Tech Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





Analyst: Abercrombie & Fitch Is 'Ripe' For A Disappointing Earnings Report

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF)'s fourth quarter consensus earnings estimate is "misguided," and the company is bound to miss expectations when it posts results Wednesday, an analyst said on Monday.

The specialty apparel retailer changed hands recently at $24.29, off $0.45, and has seen its shares fall nearly 13 percent since December.

Wunderlich's Eric Beder reiterated a Sell rating and a $17 target, and said it's "nearly impossible" for the company to meet its fourth quarter earnings forecast.

Short interest equals about 28 percent of Abercrombie's 69.3 million shares outstanding. That's down from nearly 30 percent in November.

Waning interest from teen customers, foreign exchange headwinds and "fashion issues" will conspire to force Abercrombie to take "a material step backwards" when it posts quarterly results, Beder said.

Related Link: The Top 10 Analysts On Wall Street

About 30 percent of the company's stores are in its international segment.

The Wall Street consensus for earnings growth in fiscal 2016 is "somewhat delusional," according to Beder.

Analysts on average expect 2016 earnings of $1.68 a share, up from $1.57 expected for the current year.

For the recently-ended fourth quarter, Wall Street expects earnings of $1.16 a share, while Beder is forecasting fourth quarter earnings of just $0.77 a share.

The company is "ripe once again to provide investors with a material disappointment," Beder said.

Latest Ratings for ANF

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2015 Morgan Stanley Downgrades Equal-weight Underweight
Feb 2015 Telsey Advisory Upgrades Market Perform Market Outperform
Feb 2015 Credit Suisse Downgrades Neutral Underperform

View More Analyst Ratings for ANF
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Posted-In: abercrombie & fitch Eric BederAnalyst Color Short Ideas Previews Reiteration Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas





Best Buy Q4 Earnings Preview

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: BBY) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings Tuesday morning and the Street expected EPS of $1.35 on revenues of $14.35 billion.

If Best Buy reports in line with consensus for Q4, it will have experienced a nearly 1 percent decline in sales from the prior year period. Amid concerns of revenues being under pressure, the stock was still up 3.67 percent over the past three months and had traded in a range between $34 and nearly $40.

In January, JP Morgan issued a note projecting that comps will be in the range of flat to low negative single digits for the first half of the current fiscal year. The biggest issue for Best Buy was price competition, according to analyst Rod Hall.

In February, however, Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel upgraded the firm's rating from Perform to Outperform and thought "the worst is likely over" for the retailer. Nagel also set a $43 price target on the stock.

Looking ahead, consensus for Q1 EPS was $0.31 on revenues of $8.73 billion which would be a sales decline of 3.4 percent compared to the year-ago period.

Ahead of its earnings release, Best Buy closed Monday at $38.63, up 1.4 percent.

Latest Ratings for BBY

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2015 Oppenheimer Upgrades Perform Outperform
Jan 2015 Citigroup Maintains Buy
Jan 2015 Jefferies Maintains Buy

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Posted-In: Brian Nagel JP Morgan Oppenheimer Rod HallAnalyst Color Previews Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas





UPDATE: SunOpta Aquires Citrusource, LLC.

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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SunOpta Inc. (Nasdaq: STKL) (TSX:SOY), a leading global company focused on organic and healthy foods today announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Citrusource, LLC. (“Citrusource”). The acquisition transaction closed contemporaneously with the execution of the definitive agreement.

Citrusource is a leading supplier of premium not-from-concentrate private label organic and conventional orange juice and citrus products in the United States with revenues of approximately $30 million. They operate a national sourcing and supply operation utilizing a number of processing and packaging partners to serve a variety of well-known retailer customers.

“This acquisition aligns with our core integrated two-touch strategy and leverages our vertically integrated operations as well as our Consumer Products strategy to grow our healthy beverages portfolio,” said Steve Bromley, Chief Executive Officer of SunOpta. “The acquisition of Citrusource will leverage our integrated juice operation located in San Bernardino, CA, which is now operational. In addition, the Citrusource team brings significant market, commercial and operational expertise to SunOpta, which we expect will help us to drive synergies across our current healthy beverages segment and better serve our customers.”

The business was acquired for a combination of cash on closing of $13.3 million, plus future payments based on specific performance targets, and are subject to certain post-closing adjustments. The acquisition was funded from available credit facilities and is expected to be immediately accretive.

“We are very excited to be joining SunOpta as this will allow us to better serve our customers as we leverage SunOpta’s vertically integrated business and international sourcing expertise,” said Bob Aicklen, Managing Partner at Citrusource. “Our product and process expertise will fit nicely with SunOpta’s focus on healthy and organic beverages. As a result, we will be better able to leverage our combined expertise to expand our product capabilities and customer portfolio.”

In addition to juice, SunOpta’s CPG portfolio includes products for retail and foodservice use such as aseptic beverages, fruit snacks, specialty snack bars, roasted grains, individually quick frozen (IQF) fruits and vegetables, and re-sealable pouch products.

Posted-In: News M&A Press Releases





Wedbush: Net Neutrality Developments Could Be A Positive For Netflix, Amazon

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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In a report published Monday, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter commented that the latest net neutrality developments are "positives" for both Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Amazon.com, Inc's (NASDAQ: AMZN) Instant Video.

On February 26, the FCC adopted "strong" net neutrality rules to protect the open Internet through "bright-line rules" that ban blocking, throttling, and paid prioritization by Internet providers.

Pachter noted that the developments positively impact Netflix, which has seen increasing streaming delivery expenses in recent quarters resulting in part from payments to Internet Service Providers to maintain or improve the performance of its streaming capabilities. The analyst added that it is "likely" that Amazon also experienced similar increases in delivery expenses.

However, Pachter stated that he expects the new rules will be modified or overturned by legislation, given the Republican majority in Congress. If this were to occur, Netflix shares will be "negatively impacted," while shares of Amazon will also be "negatively impacted" but at "a lesser extent."

"Ultimately, we don't expect a Republican Congress to accept greater government regulation of the Internet, and we expect a legislative solution addressing the FCC's actions," Pachter concluded.

Latest Ratings for AMZN

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2015 Piper Jaffray Maintains Overweight
Jan 2015 Citigroup Maintains Buy
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Posted-In: Congress FCC Michael Pachter net neutrality WedbushAnalyst Color Analyst Ratings Tech





Spirit Airlines And Alaska Air Could Make A Good Pair Trade, But The Short Side May Surprise You

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE: ALK)'s Seattle competition is overrated, while Spirit Airlines Incorporated (NASDAQ: SAVE)'s stock may get pressured by a growing rivalry in Dallas, an analyst said Monday.

Stifel's Joseph DeNardi upgraded Alaska Air to Buy with a $85 target, and said that Delta Air Lines Inc's (NYSE: DAL) move to muscle in on Alaska's Seattle market will start to slow down this year.

Alaska Air, which fell more than 3 percent in February on worries over Delta, is up 2.4 percent in Monday morning trading.

Related Link: Why This Analyst Is Bullish On Spirit Airlines

A Pair Trade?

Although not specifically referenced by the analyst, there could be a pair trade opportunity here. DeNardi also cut his rating on Spirit to Hold because of expanding capacity at Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) in Spirit's Dallas market.

Spirit's outlook reminds DeNardi of the "Alaska-Delta competition 12 months ago," when investors failed to anticipate increasing capacity in Alaska's key market.

Moreover, Spirit's expansion plans in Atlanta and Houston are likely to get answered by both Southwest and Delta.

As for Alaska Airlines, its competitive head winds from Delta will start to abate in the second quarter, with an improving trend into 2016, the analyst noted.

Alaska's investment-grade balance sheet helps prospects for stock buy-backs and its relatively favorable labor contracts should help keep costs low, DeNardi added.

Latest Ratings for ALK

Date Firm Action From To
Mar 2015 Stifel Nicolaus Upgrades Hold Buy
Feb 2015 Raymond James Upgrades Outperform Strong Buy
Jan 2015 Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ALK
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Analyst Color Long Ideas Short Ideas Upgrades Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas





Barclays Still Loves Berkshire Hathaway, But Notes 1 Risk

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Barclays reiterated an Overweight rating on Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) Monday following the release of the company's annual shareholder letter.

Analyst Jay Gelb commented that the company's Q4 operating earnings were below the firm's projections and were "driven by lower-than-expected earnings in both the insurance and non-insurance businesses although quarterly results can be lumpy."

One of the items that interested analysts about Berkshire's future, however, were succession plans for CEO Warren Buffett, who indicated that "he now had the right internal person to become CEO the day after he dies or steps down, and that he or she should be relatively young," according to the analyst note.

Gelb saw BH Energy chief Greg Abel or BNSF chairman Matt Rose as potential candidates for the CEO position.

Also looking ahead, Gelb thought that upside on the stock would be limited if it moves from its current book value of 1.51x towards 2x. Buffett could, however, partner with other firms on acquisitions or establish a dividend and share repurchase program if it "is unable to attractively reinvest in the business."

Despite the Q4 operating EPS coming in 13 percent below the analyst's outlook, Gelb raised Class B 2015 EPS estimates from $7.50 to $7.70 and 2016 EPS estimates from $8.10 to $8.35. The EPS revisions were largely due to "bolt-on deals" involving Duracell and auto dealer VanTyul.

The analyst note was also positive on Berkshire's "leverage to an improving economy in its non-insurance business" and also saw "opportunities for accretive acquisitions" in the future.

In terms of risk, Gelb mentioned that insurance earnings could decline modestly but that CEO succession remained the number one risk, "although less so since Buffett's succession plans are in place."

Berkshire Hathaway Class B Shares recently traded at $146.84, down 0.39 percent.

Latest Ratings for BRK-B

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Barclays Maintains Overweight
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Posted-In: Barclays Jay Gelb Warren BuffettAnalyst Color Reiteration Analyst Ratings





Credit Suisse Downgrades Sucampo Pharmaceuticals To Underperform

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Analysts at Credit Suisse downgraded Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCMP) from Neutral to Underperform.

The price target for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals has been raised from $10.00 to $13.00.

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals shares have gained 81.15% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has surged 14.02% in the same period.

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals’ shares fell 3.87% to close at $15.38 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for SCMP

Date Firm Action From To
Mar 2015 Credit Suisse Downgrades Neutral Underperform
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Posted-In: Credit SuisseDowngrades Analyst Ratings





Benzinga's Top Upgrades

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI) from Equal-weight to Overweight. The price target for United Rentals is set to $115. United Rentals’ shares closed at $93.06 on Friday.

MLV upgraded Rose Rock Midstream, L.P. (NYSE: RRMS) to Buy. Rose Rock Midstream’s shares closed at $46.38 on Friday.

Analysts at Global Hunter upgraded Superior Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE: SPN) from Accumulate to Buy. Superior Energy Services’ shares closed at $22.38 on Friday.

Analysts at Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE: ALK) from Hold to Buy. Alaska Air Group’s shares closed at $63.65 on Friday.

Latest Ratings for URI

Date Firm Action From To
Mar 2015 Morgan Stanley Upgrades Equal-weight Overweight
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Posted-In: top upgradesUpgrades Analyst Ratings





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Brexit: how the end of Britain's empire led to rising inequality that helped Leave to victory

 

Brexit: how the end of Britain's empire led to rising inequality that helped Leave to victory

AC Arts Photography via Shutterstock

Courtesy of Danny Dorling, University of Oxford and Sal...



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Zero Hedge

World Trade War I: US Asks South Korea To Join Anti-Huawei Campaign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The bilateral trade war between the US and China is gradually becoming a global trade war of global geopolitical and commercial dominance between the US and Chinese spheres of influence.

Shortly after the two largest mobile phone companies in the UK decided against launching Huawei-built 5G phones this morning, and roughly around the time a bevy of Japanese tech and telecom companies including ARM Holdings, Panasonic and SoftBank all imposed a boycott on supplying Huawei with mission critical components joining Australia, and New Zealand as major US allies to end commercial relat...



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Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

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Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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