Comment by phil

View Single Comment

phil
January 18th, 2016 at 7:21 am

Good morning!  

Our futures are up about half a point and Europe barely over flat (but that's good as they are ignoring our Friday sell-off) other than Italy, who are down 1.5%.  

/RB/Burr – No special target, I just thought $1 would hold and now $1.04 I sell 1/2 and put a stop on the rest at $1.02 to lock in $1.03 and maybe at $1.05 I sell 1/2 more if I don't like the line and raise the stop to $1.04 and just let the last couple ride.









/NG looks very tempting but our FUNDAMENTAL premise (LNG exports) has been put off by 3 months and then we have this ahead:



So there's certainly no good reason to buy now, is there?  Don't forget, we wanted to go long at $2.20 and now $2.05 so, if it rockets higher – I don't mind playing the $2.20 line as a bullish cross (with tight stops below), but I have no reason to play $2.05 – there's nothing special about that line though $2 MIGHT form up as a base and prove that $1.68 was silly, but we let that happen – we don't bet on it without proof!  



Also, our other premise for /NG is that the exports will equalize the World prices somewhere between our $2 and Asia's $9 but now Asia is down to $5 and we're still at $2.  I still don't think we equalize at $2.50 or even $3 but this was unexpected and we don't like unexpected things when betting the Futures – so safer not to bet until things clear up (but this is not enough to put us off our longer-term UNG trade).  



By the way – it looks to me (and I'm not sure if I'm reading this right) that the Futures will halt at 1pm and resume at 6pm today.  I'm not working, but I will be checking in.

Over in Davos, they are circling the wagons and telling us to stop worrying about China.  Of course I agree – I wrote about that last Thursday – I think it's baked in at this point, unless it's worse than we think it is (or as bad as Naybob thinks it is) – then we are in for a lot more trouble ahead. 

Davos Veterans Say Stop Worrying About China's Market Meltdown





Here is what you need to know about the world's most exclusive meeting — #Davos: http://cnnmon.ie/1Q8XroI 

The ticket is around $20,000 and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Travel can cost thousands, and a night in a medium-range hotel is around $600. Add to it wining, dining, and essential accessories like snow boots, and the total bill can add up to around $40,000.

Besides the skiing, what's it all about? Meetings. Hundreds of them. With major companies, countries and media represented, there is hardly a better opportunity to schmooze and make deals. But the forum is not about big public announcements. Meetings are informal and take place behind closed doors.

The U.S. will be represented by Joe Biden and John Kerry. Loretta Lynch, the U.S. Attorney General, is also coming, as is Penny Pritzker, the Secretary of Commerce.

45 amazing scientists coming to Davos 2016 http://wef.ch/1W7TJhz  #wef

That's the basis of my optimism for a turn here – the 62 people who really control the World have one of their 2 annual gatherings (the other does not invite the press) and it just so happens to be on the same weekend that the wealth of the Top 1% has now surpassed the combined wealth of the Bottom 99% – go us!  



Of course, even if you are in the Top 1% (70M of us Worldwide) – these 62 guys have to terrify you:



If they want to keep growing their wealth at the current rate – it has to come from somewhere and, logically, they can't take 100% of the bottom 3.5Bn's remaining assets to double up again so a good chunk of that money has to be conTRIBUTED to them by those of us in the bottom 49-99.9999999% – so get ready to pony up folks – because now "THEY" are coming for you!  



Think about it.  When the CEO (top 1% for sure) of a company you invest in takes another few million this year to keep up with inflation – that's money out of your pocket, isn't it?  They are directly taking money from you – the bottom 99.9% investor, to make themselves richer!  Maybe it's only 0.10 per share but you have 1,000 shares so a guy who makes $20M a year and gets a $2M raises spread across 20M shares is taking 0.10 per share out of your pocket or $10.  You can afford it, so you don't complain but it's a petty theft they can efficiently perform 20M times each quarter and that's how the rich get much, much richer while you wonder why it's so hard to get ahead.  This is something I wrote about 8 years ago:

The Dooh Nibor Economy (that's “Robin Hood” backwards …



An Economy for the 1%, shows that the wealth of the poorest half of the world's population – that's 3.6 billion people – has fallen by a trillion dollars since 2010. This 41 per cent drop has occurred despite the global population increasing by around 400 million people during that period. Meanwhile the wealth of the richest 62 has increased by more than half a trillion dollars to $1.76tr. Just nine of the '62' are women.

Although world leaders have increasingly talked about the need to tackle inequality, the gap between the richest and the rest has widened dramatically in the past 12 months. Oxfam's prediction – made ahead of last year's Davos – that the 1% would soon own more than the rest of us by 2016, actually came true in 2015, a year early.

Oxfam is calling for urgent action to tackle the inequality crisis and reverse the dramatic fall in wealth of the poorest half of the world. It is urging world leaders to adopt a three-pronged approach – cracking down on tax dodging, increased investment in public services and action to boost the income of the lowest paid.  As a priority, it is calling for an end to the era of tax havens which has seen increasing use of offshore centres by rich individuals and companies to avoid paying their fair share to society. This has denied governments valuable resources needed to tackle poverty and inequality.

Keep in mind, we are talking about this at the same time as a Billionaire (#121 on Forbes), may actually be placed as the President of the United States.  A Billionaire already controls Russia and  other Billionaires already control Ukraine, Georgia, Lebanon, Nigeria, Sweden, Nepal, Mexico, Cyprus and the Czech Republic.  More to come – not less!  

Asian Stock Rout Deepens as Japan, Australia Bear Markets Loom. Asian stocks slumped, with Japanese and Australian shares on the cusp of joining China in a bear market, as concern grew over the strength of the global economy amid a continuing collapse in oil prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1 percent to 118.94 as of 11:10 a.m. in Tokyo, extending this year’s slide to 9.9 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 1.4 percent after plunging as much as 2.8 percent in early trading. The gauge is down 19 percent from a June peak. A drop of more than 20 percent at the close would meet the definition of a bear market. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.7 percent, and is currently down 19 percent from an April high.

Japanese Stocks Enter Bear Market, Credit Risk Surges To 20-Month Highs

China's Stock Strategists Are Bracing for a Deeper Bear Market. There will be little let up for investors in China’s beleaguered stock market. That’s the consensus of strategists interviewed last week as the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell into a bear market on waning confidence that the government can manage the country’s transition to a new growth model and to a more freely-traded currency. Analysts from Bocom International Holdings Co. and Wells Fargo Funds Management say the index may drop 14 percent to 2,500. Zhongtai Securities Co. sees the gauge losing as much as 300 points, or 10 percent, before bottoming out. Phillip Securities and Central China Securities Co. expect more selling pressure even after the Shanghai Composite sank 3.5 percent to 2,900.97 on Friday, falling 21 percent from its December high.

China’s High Stock Valuations Worry Investors. Even after drop in mainland shares this year, price-to-earnings ratios are much higher than in U.S. and Europe. The plunge in Chinese stock markets this year has already grabbed global attention. Judging by the frothy prices at which shares there still trade relative to their earnings, they could have further to fall. The main index of Shanghai, China’s biggest stock market with a total value of $3.7 trillion, has already dropped 18% this year, to its lowest level in more than a year. Still, the median stock traded in Shanghai is valued at 24 times the profit analysts expect the company to generate this year, a common…

 





Offshore Yuan Gains as China Steps Up Defense of Its Currency. The offshore yuan strengthened, building on its biggest weekly gain since October, after China stepped up efforts to curb speculation against its currency beyond its borders. The People’s Bank of China will impose reserve-requirement ratios on yuan deposits held on the mainland by offshore participant banks from Jan. 25. according to people familiar with the matter. Premier Li Keqiang on Friday pledged a “stable” exchange rate, and said the nation has no intention of stimulating exports through competitive currency devaluation. The central bank strengthened its daily reference rate for the yuan by 0.07 percent on Monday, the biggest gain in four weeks. 

Australian Shares Could Join China in Bear-Market Territory. Concerns about China’s economy, falling commodity prices and weak U.S. economic data sparked fresh falls.     ?

Mid-East Massacre: Qatar Crashes, Saudi Stocks Plunge Most Since Black Monday

 

The Saudi stock market is in free fall. The Saudi Tadawul All-Shares Index (TASI), the largest Arab market, dived 6.5 percent to below 5,500-points just minutes after the start of trading. The level was last seen in early 2011. The leading petrochemicals sector dipped 8.0 percent, while banks lost 5.3 percent. Since the start of 2016, the TASI has dropped 21.1 percent, more than all of its losses last year.



Hedge Fund Bets Signal There's More Pain Ahead for Commodities. The commodity meltdown that pushed oil to a 12-year low and copper to the cheapest since 2009 isn’t over yet. At least, that’s how hedge funds see it. Money managers increased their combined net-bearish position across 18 raw materials to the biggest ever, doubling the negative bets in just two weeks. A measure of returns on commodities last week slid to the lowest in at least 25 years. Metals, crops and energy futures all slumped amid supply gluts and an anemic outlook for the global economy.

Wells Fargo's(WFC) Problem Emerges: $17 Billion In Junk Energy Exposure

Wells Fargo(WFC) Is Bad, But Citi Is Worse

JPM(JPM) Explains How Crude Carnage Creates $75 Billion SWF "Contagion" For Equities

Peak Desperation: Clinton Campaign Deploys Wall Street 'Strategist' To Attack Bernie Sanders