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Thrilling Thursday – Another Webinar, Another $1,000 Profit

That's right, we did it again!

Yesterday's Live Trading Webinar was open to the public (see yesterday's post) and, during the session, we found a trade on the Russell 2000 that made $500 per contract and, into the close of the Webinar, we decided to go long on the Nikkei (/NKD) at 16,985, looking to get back to 17,200 and we NAILED IT into the close for a $1,075 per contract win in just hours!  Futures trading is fun – don't be afraid – check out our Options Opportunity Portfolio and get access to all of our Live Trading Webinars.

Also in yesterday's morning post (and on our Twitter feed) I mentioned the Alert we sent out to our Members in the morning, noting the following long plays in the Futures:

  • 1,900 on the S&P (/ES), closed 1,907 – up $350 per contract 
  • 16,100 on the Dow (/YM), closed at 16,320 – up $1,100 per contract 
  • 0.975 on Gasoline (/RB), closed at $1.045 – up $2,940 per contract 
  • $30 on Oil (/CL), closed at $32.50 – up $2,500 per contract

Yes the futures are risky (and we were down before we were up in the Webinar) but they give you a tremendous advantage in volatile markets as you can use them to better balance your portfolio before the market opens or after it closes – rather than sitting and sweating while you wait for the opening bell to trade.  Since we practice a generally Balanced Portfolio Approach at Philstockworld, we mostly play the Futures for fun but the experience we get while having fun really comes in handy when there is an after-hours surprise in the market.  You've probably seen this commercial recently:

And no, it doesn't matter who your broker is (most of us use TD's Think or Swim) but this commercial hits it right on the head – being able to trade the Futures gives you a tremendous edge on the market.  Let's say you only used one of our trade ideas and made just $1,000 yesterday on a single contract.  What percentage of your portfolio is that?  How many times a year would it be nice to save $1,000 here or $1,000 there by being able to balance your positions based on news you received before or after the trading floor had closed?  

Not wanting to trade the futures because they are risky is like only wanting to have dull knives at the dinner table: It will usually work out OK – until it's steak night!  

The same thing goes for our Options Hedges – another valuable tool you should have in your toolbelt.  Our Short-Term Portfolio carries the primary responsibility of protecting our 4x larger Long-Term Portfolio (20% allocation to short-term positions) and, in it, we keep our option hedges that protect us against downturns.  At the moment, we have 50 S&P Ultra-Short (SDS) March $22/27 bull call spreads that we paid net 0.85 for ($4,250) as our primary hedge (we're not that bearish, yet) and it pays $25,000 if SDS is over $27 at March expirations (18th) and SDS is currently $22.37 and moves 2x to the S&P, so it would take a 10% drop in the S&P for us to hit our $27 target on the 2x ETF.  

To pay for that spread, we sold 5 Apple (AAPL) 2018 $80 puts for $9 each ($4,500) in which we got paid cash up front in exchange for our promise to buy 500 shares of Apple should it drop another 15%.  If that doesn't happen by January 19th, 2018, then the put contracts we sold expire worthless and the $4,500 is free.  This is a trick that works with any stock you REALLY want to own at a discount (see "How to Buy a Stock for a 15-20% Discount").

As I noted above, we're not that bearish – yet – but we will be adding more aggressive hedges into the weekend if we can't hold our weak bounce lines (see yesterday's post for levels) and, frankly, not making our strong bounce lines into tomorrow's close is still going to be a big concern and we're a long way from making those this morning.  

Today is a big data day with Chain Store Sales, Jobless Claims, Productivity Report, Consumer Comfort, and Factory Orders – all ahead of tomorrow's market-moving Non-Farm Payroll Report.  After Conoco (COP) this morning, there's nothing too exciting on the earnings front until next week – which is the biggest earnings week of the quarter.  After that is our favorite time of the year, when we get to make short-term bets on earnings calls that come in towards the end of the period – when we have enough information in each sector to make intelligent guesses on the remaining company reports – be sure to tune in for that fun!   

Meanwhile, today is a bit of a watch and wait day though we will, of course, still want to go long on the S&P (/ES) above the 1,900 line and the Russell (/TF) above the 1,000 line while we'd love a re-entry on Natural Gas (/NGK6) at $2.15.  There are, of course, ETFs for all of those (SPY, IWM, UNG) but we love the quick "In and Out and Back to CASH!!!" trading of the Futures – especially in suck a volatile market!  

Our biggest concern at the moment is that much of this rally can be attributed to the rapid decline of the Dollar this week – down from 99.50 to 96.50 is more than a 3% decline and that SHOULD give a 3% lift (at least) to commodities and equities and, indeed, Gold has rocketed up to $1,155 (we're long GLD) and Silver has shot up to $14.90 (we're long SLW and /SI Futures) and Copper has jumped back to $2.12 (we're long /HG and FCX) but the equity indexes are dead in the water and, perhaps, only supported – for the moment – by the Dollars weakness and about to take a huge plunge in the near future!  

How's that SDS hedge looking now?  As I said, we'll be looking to add more hedges if we're forced to stop out of our Futures longs and, even if they are successful, we'll be taking those profits and using them to purchase more hedges if we fail to take back those strong bounce lines.

That's our game plan, what's yours?  


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  1. Phil,

    The recent slump in the US$, where do you see the futures trades/ levels for today. We are starting to roll lower into S1 territory…..your thoughts and guidance appreciated. thanks

  2. I'm making a poster with this and putting it in my office!  I never use a dull knife and I love a good steak, so this resonates for sure…quote of the day for me!

    "Not wanting to trade the futures because they are risky is like only wanting to have dull knives at the dinner table: It will usually work out OK – until it's steak night! "

  3. Phil would CLF be a good new position?

  4. jeff You need however watch your steak like a hawk or you can lose it in a flash of an eye lid 

  5. The lager is the /NQ today are we ready to take the steak of the grill Jeff ?

  6. Phil / IRBT-  What are your thoughts on IRBT selling its defense and security business to Arlington Capital Partners?  From Briefing – "This transaction enables iRobot to solidify its position as the leader in diversified Home Robots and focus on technologies for the connected home".  With no potential pop from a military contract are you still on board with this stock?  Thanks as always-

  7. JMD: lie down on the floor until the feeling to trade CLF goes away :) . It's a dog, pure and simple. True, it is probably as low as low can go, and it has been a board recommendation every tick down from the mid $25. But, there are thousands of other stocks out there that warrant perusal. Phil's BAC put sale from yesterday has a nice risk/reward profile.

  8. Yodi, very true!! 

  9. Good Morning!

  10. And…I just bought an nice steak this morning!!! /TF off the 1000 line, out now for a quick few hundred. 

  11. Phil- I shure would have liked the /NKD play and $1075 from the end of webinar tip.  I have had a flashing on and off window at the very end of several sessions "you have been disconnected"….humm, curious as to why this is happening…especially when I miss a lucrative pearl after 1 1/2 hour session with my screens off and my attention focused.

    But, that was yesterday…today I have been watching /PL, /SI, /HG & /DX….I want some of those…pretty graphs just keep going up.  Hey, first red at resistance PL & SI & HG ..DX still going up.

  12. Good morning!  

    Jackie got first honors again and texted asked what I was going to get her so I texted back "I'm raising the bar from now on" with this video.  I love Dutch – can barely understand a thing but I find it such a pleasing language…  

    Futures/Jasu – That's why it's a tough day to trade.  96.25 is too low for the Dollar (97.50 maybe) so expecting a bounce in the Dollar will put downward pressure on everything else.   Best bet is to just sit back and see how the market goes today and tomorrow.  Of course I always say that on days we end up making 10 trades…  cool

    Poster/Jeff – I should do a Will Rogers tour – we need a new set of aphorisms for the 21st Century.  

    CLF/JMD – Aw, why do you have to ask that AFTER they pop 50%?  Sure, I still like them long-term (we have a $20,000 bet on them in the LTP) but they could easily turn ugly again.  I certainly like selling the 2018 $1 puts for 0.66 as that's a net 0.34 entry and, as long as you don't go too crazy – that's a short put even an IRA investor could love with a 200% return on cash or margin!  

    If they get bought, you cash in early.  

    Cliffs Natural Resources: It's Bullish!

    Uh-oh, they have Cramer in a suit on CNBC – that's never a good thing.

    Big Chart – We really NEED to pop those bounce highs by tomorrow.  

    Oil on the run again – $33.52, Brent $35.68.

    IRBT/EmailMike – I don't like it.  The defense business is what I was excited about with IRBT.  This will remove it from our Stock of the Century pedestal and I'm not sure I'm even interested now.   I'd say sell at $35 but, in the OOP, we have a March play we can ride out ($35 was the target).  In the LTP, we have a Jan $33 target so silly to sell that early if we don't have to but I'm VERY concerned now – down from VERY confident.

    iRobot sells off military robotics business. Focus is on home robots.

    I think they are totally nuts.  Reacting to a difficult cycle in military sales prematurely. 

    /TF continues to be a broken slot machine – stop at 1,010 for +$1,000 now.  /ES can stop at 1,905 with a trailing 1 stop.  

    Webinar/Coke – Sorry you got disconnected, we don't have a lot of control as it's a 3rd Party App we subscribe to.  I would not be long the metals here because the Dollar may bounce and knock them down sharply - be very careful!

  13. /NQ rejected hard at 4160

  14. Ok, thanks for the info, was interested in shorting up here and wondering if I might be staying up…PL has been up couple of days.  HG dropping, but you said it's just currency rise and I am not familiar enough but might try a little drop if keeps going down.  Thanks 

  15. IRBT – Phil – I am sure Buffett would agree – such a significant change of business strategy – where's the door marked EXIT!?

  16. /TF-Phil -  Ok for another poke at 1000 or wait for the Factory orders report at 10?

  17. IRBT – it's those damn contrarians – IRBT posting an 8% gain!!!

  18. Phil

    Transocean Ltd. (RIG)

     Do we have Rig in our portfolio?



  19. Phil / IRBT – Thanks! 

  20. Wow, do my Futures calls make the market collapse now?  That was crazy – as soon as we set stops the whole thing fell apart!   

    Your welcome Coke.  Very dangerous trading environment. 

    IRBT/Winston – Needs to be considered.  I almost want to unwind to a short position.  

    RIG/QC – In the LTP, we still have the Jan $13/20 bull call spread with short $15 puts (another one we rolled and doubled down on).  2018 is out but I'm not sure we'll have to wait that long to hit $15 again so we haven't rolled yet..  

    You're welcome Mike.

    • P-E firm Arlington Capital is buying iRobot's (NASDAQ:IRBT) defense/security robot business for up to $45M, after factoring a milestone-based contingent payment. The deal is expected to close "in the next few months."
    • Activist Red Mountain Capital previously called on iRobot to explore options for its defense/security robot ops, noting they account for less than 10% of revenue and aren't expected to grow significantly over the next few years. iRobot's Defense & Security sales fell 42% Y/Y in Q3 to $6.2M, with gross margin dropping to 42.9% from 53.3% a year earlier.
    • CEO Colin Angle: "iRobot sees significant growth opportunities in the consumer robotic technology market, particularly in light of the successful Roomba 980 launch and the potential presented by the connected smart home … The divestiture of the Defense & Security business will allow us to focus on the Home Robots business, bring new products to market, continue our expansion in China and build upon successful new marketing campaigns."
    • Along with the sale, iRobot has announced it's expanding its buyback authorization by $65M, bringing the total value of its 2016 program above $100M. A 1M-share buybackwas announced in late December.
    • iRobot has rallied above $35. Q4 results arrive on Feb. 10.

    Shkreli (drug pricing) testifying before Congress and pleading the 5th to everything but his name.  

    /TF/Raviss – AFTER we get more information, THEN we can play. 

    Consumer Comfort Index is just below its per-recession average

    Florida governor declares Zika health emergency

    • Florida Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in four counties where people have been diagnosed with the Zika virus.
    • While nine cases of the mosquito-borne illness have been detected in the state, health officials believe all of the viruses were contracted while traveling to affected countries.
    • The disease, for which there is no vaccine and no specific cure, has been linked to a recent surge of birth defects in Brazil.

    Draghi: Failing to act early on inflation is risky

    • The risk of acting too late on ultra low inflation is greater than that of acting too early as a wait-and-see stance could lead to a lasting loss of confidence, ECB President Mario Draghi said at a Bundesbank event in Frankfurt.
    • "And if that were to happen, we would need a much more accommodative monetary policy to reverse it," he added. "Seen from that perspective, the risks of acting too late outweigh the risks of acting too early."
    • Euro +0.4% to $1.1159.


    • Credit Suisse (NYSE:CSreported its first annual loss since 2008 as it wrote off billions of dollars in goodwill, set aside litigation provisions and suffered a trading downturn.
    • Statoil (NYSE:STOslashed its capital spending budget but said it would keep its dividend steady after topping fourth quarter expectations.
    • Driven by a robust performance in its retail and wholesale divisions, ING posted a better-than-expected Q4 and announced a full-year dividend of €0.65 per share.
    • AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZNexpects low to mid-single digit percentage drops in earnings this year, in part due to a flood of generic cholesterol drugs.
    • Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD) met expectations with a 1.4% rise in revenue during FQ3, its sixth consecutive quarter of growth, as a recovery in Europe gained pace.
    • The Bank of England is happy to continue letting the Fed experiment with rate hikes. As expected, it holds its benchmark overnight rate at 0.5%.
    • In somewhat of a surprise, the vote was unanimous this time – in recent past meetings, one member had held out for higher rates.
    • The dovish move sends the pound lower by about 100 pips. It's now flat on the session at $1.4572. The FTSE adds to gains, now higher by 1.2%
    • Results from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey show banks tightened standards on commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans in Q4. Lenders also expect standards to tighten more over the course of this year.
    • Deutsche's Jim Reid says there's never been two consecutive quarters of tightening standards without signaling an eventual move into recession and a notable default cycle.
    • Households loans look to be a different story, with the survey finding a moderate easing of standards for residential mortgages, as well as on auto loans.

    • ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) -5.8% premarket after missing Q4 earnings estimates and cutting its dividend by 66%.
    • COP lowers its guidance for 2016 capex by 17% to $6.4B from a December outlook for $7.7B, primarily driven by reduced activity in the continental U.S., and guidance for 2016 operating costs by 9% to $7B from $7.7B.
    • "While we don't know how far commodity prices will fall, or the duration of the downturn, we believe it's prudent to plan for lower prices for a longer period of time," says Chairman/CEO Ryan Lance.
    • COP says Q4 production 1,599 MBOED, an increase of 32 MBOED Y/Y, primarily due to new production from major projects and development programs, as well as improved well performance; the total realized price was $28.54/boe, vs. $52.88/boe in the year-ago quarter.
    • COP also revised its FY 2016 production guidance to be essentially flat with 2015 production of 1,525 MBOED, and sees Q1 production at 1,540-1,580 MBOED.

    cheeky Harmony Gold Mining reports FQ2 results

    • Harmony Gold Mining (NYSE:HMY): FQ2 Production profit of $91M (68% Q/Q) due to 7% rise in gold price.
    • Revenue of $321M (10% Q/Q).
    • Shares +8.3% PM.
    • Press Release
    • Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) reports revenue was up 4.0% in Q4 if currency swings and the impact of acquisitions are backed out.
    • Operating income fell 24% Y/Y to $2B, driven lower by a 31% drop in European Union OI.
    • Cigarette volume fell 2.4% to 209.8B units during the quarter.
    • The company expects 2016 EPS of $4.25 to $4.35 at prevailing exchange rates vs. $4.42 consensus.
    • Previously: Philip Morris EPS in-line, misses on revenue (Feb. 04 2016)
    • PM -2.55% premarket to $87.50.

    Toshiba predicts largest-ever yearly net loss

    • Toshiba (OTCPK:TOSYY) expects to record the biggest annual loss in its 140-year-old history as the firm wrote down the book value of several units, including energy and infrastructure, while restructuring costs ballooned.
    • For the full fiscal year ending in March, Toshiba predicted it would record a net loss of ¥710B ($6b), larger than the previous ¥550B net-loss forecast in December.
    • After a major accounting scandal last year, CEO Masashi Muromachi began to implement across-the-board shake-ups, including cutting thousands of jobs and spinning off non-core businesses.

  21. Six Oil Producers Agree on Emergency Meeting, Iran's Shana Says

    Venezuela minister says 6 and non-OPEC countries agree on emergency meeting http://www.

    OPEC delegates divided on holding a meeting with non-members:

    Would a Russia-OPEC cut even cut it for oil prices?

    OPEC may have missed a huge opportunity that could leave oil prices stuck under $40 a barrel for the next 5 months

    Embedded image permalink

  22. Will Rogers/Phil – don't forget the rope tricks with the political quips.

  23. USO – Thoughts on buying at $9.50 and selling the March $9.50 strike straddle for $1.65?

  24. OPEC went through the exact same gyrations in the 1980's and were unable to get agreement and/or not cheat on quotas for nearly twenty years.  I hope they can get the price up but I seriously doubt that can be coordinated, especially with US shale still viable if prices recover and many nations really needing the cash. 

  25. Phil; any thoughts on DECK as tonight they have earnings tonight, high IV with 11 PE and expected to earn $4.70/share on a $49 stock.   We have traded them before.  Hard to see them do have blown out earnings with this mild winter.

  26. Good morning everyone! 

    The webinar replay is now available on our YouTube channel here:

  27. Phil,

    Would like your input – I have the remnants of a short position in oil (inverse oil and gas, DUG @82, now 73), having scaled out of half higher, and feel oil will move back down in a lower for longer scenario due to supply. In the meantime to minimize sleep loss, would you consider a (1) late-to-the-party offset via a long position in UCO, (2) take the loss in DUG with a review to re-entering lower or (3) another strategy ? I realize the appropriate time to hedge has passed and this is a rear guard action, but I must deal in the present – any thoughts. Thanks in advance.

  28. Wow, nice rebound.  /NKD is still the lagger – right where we left it (16,960).

    More bad news is good news:

    Rope tricks/Snow – I have a knot-tying badge from Boy Scouts – good enough?  Boy, there's a skill that never came in handy.  Funny because the scoutmaster used to tell us we'd never survive without it.  Kind of like trigonometry…

    USO/JJ – Sure, if you buy it at $9.50 and sell the March $9.50 puts and calls for $1.80 you net a crazy low $7.70 with an excellent chance of making $1.80, which is more than 20% in 43 days – good call.

    You can also buy 1,000 shares of USO for $9.50 ($9,500) and sell 10 of the July $10 calls for $1.15 ($1,150) and 10 of the July $10 puts for $1.60 ($1,600) and that's net $6.75 ($6,750) with a call away at $10 ($10,000) for a $3,250 gain (48%) in 6 months – I like that enough to add it to the OOP.

    OPEC/Sibe – More motivated now, I imagine but still easier for a Koch brother to pass through the eye of a needle….

    DECK/Options – Mild winter means no way on them.   I'm sure this is a good entry but not for an earnings play.  Hopefully it's a disaster and you can add them at $40 or less.

    DUG/8800 – There's a reason we never play that ETF – it decays horribly.  I don't agree with your base premise – we said Feb would be the bottom back in July and nothing has happened to change our opinion.  The last big negative war Iran supply hitting the market and that's a done deal so what downside catalyst do you think will push oil back below $30, were about 25% of the people producing it are losing money?  

    We ARE long oil with our UCO/USO spreads as well as the new USO above.  Don't forget, flat oil will still take DUG down – time for DIG!  

  29. Phil,

    Thanks for the tune up on oil

  30. The TransPacific Partnership (TPP) has finally been signed, in Auckland, the remotest big city in the world, chosen in part because New Zealand first proposed the agreement more than a decade ago. It may also have to do with the city’s distance from the swarms of people likely to protest.

    The deal …

  31. FLINT, Mich. — Charles White, a carpenter, sat on the couch in the living room of his small bungalow, his gaze fixed on his 5-month-old, Vaughn, nestled in a bouncy chair at his feet.

    Mr. White, who has lived in Flint most of his life, said that he was at his job the day before when his girlfriend, …

  32. GoPro is in a massive tailspin

    New York (CNN) — Layoffs, new cameras and a strategy shift. Nothing seems to be working for GoPro, which has plummeted to yet another all-time low.

    After posting a huge loss last quarter, the company fired its chief financial officer and slashed its product lineup to just three different …

  33. The following reader comment, posted originally in the FT is a must read, both for the world’s lower and endangered middle classes but especially the

  34. There’s that word again.

    For the first time since the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession, the R-word has returned in a serious way to economic dialogue.

    Most economists are quick to downplay the risk that the US economy is on the verge of contracting, but the very fact that it’s even up for …

  35. Is Saudi Arabia cash strapped?

    Saudi Arabia still has money, but if the oil price stays here for another three years the country’s basically bankrupt. In my opinion, the whole Middle East will go back to where they came from — deserts. The oil price for the Middle East, considering the huge …

  36. Here’s your morning jolt of news, insight and analysis on the global energy business. Send us tips, suggestions and

    Sign up for this newsletter:


    Royal Dutch Shell PLC reported its …

  37. Shares in Daimler AG fell 5% in early trade after the German auto maker that owns the Mercedes-Benz luxury car brand said Thursday growth in earnings and sales this year is likely to be slower than in 2015.

    The share fall came despite Daimler posting record sales and strong earnings last year.

    The …

  38. Retail store owner Kohl’s and clothing maker Ralph Lauren are both down double digits in morning trading on Thursday after reporting disappointing earnings.

    Ralph Lauren reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.54, below the expectation for $2.13 per share. The company also projected lower profit …

  39. TOKYO (Reuters) – Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank was not engaging in a currency war by adopting negative interest rates, stressing that the move was aimed at stimulating the economy through lower borrowing costs.

    He also reiterated the BOJ’s determination to push …

  40. The hedge fund psychiatrist in Showime’s Billions isn’t just a plot device.

    In Showtime’s new drama Billions, traders in a rut at hedge fund Axe Capital have someone to turn to: Wendy Rhodes, played by Maggie Siff, who is the firm’s in-house psychiatrist and performance coach.

    In one scene, Rhodes …

  41. Elizabeth Warren: American Justice Is ‘Rigged’ In Favor Of The Rich

    “There are two legal systems: One for the rich and powerful, and one for everyone else.”

    WASHINGTON — In a scorching speech from the Senate floor on Wednesday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said the American criminal justice system is rigged in favor of the wealthy, and condemned new legislation …

  42. This week’s roller-coaster ride in the global crude oil market was likely fueled in part by the sudden liquidation of a $600 million leveraged fund bet on falling prices, market sources said on Wednesday.

    Unknown investors in the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil Exchange Traded Note (ETN) – which …

  43. Credit Suisse announces 4,000 job cuts

    GENEVA – Credit Suisse says it’s cutting roughly 4,000 jobs to reduce costs after announcing a massive pre-tax loss in the fourth quarter that includes “substantial charges which are not reflective of our underlying business performance.”

    The Swiss banking giant posted a net loss of 5.3 billion …

  44. Every entrepreneur understands that overhead costs can sink a business, which leads many to find creative ways — such as bootstrapping to outright living in squalor conditions — to reduce them

    One utility, electricity (power), is an essential part of running an office, warehouse or manufacturing …

  45. When it comes to Wall Street permabulls, no one name sticks out more than that of FundStrat’s (formerly JPM’s) Tom Lee. Which is why, when even the …

  46. Just got off a 2 hour conference call and saw the IRBT news. I closed my positions because I don't care about vacuum cleaners that much. Not that exciting. I might be wrong, but better be safe I think.

  47. I guess we need a new Stock of the Century now…

  48. IRBT/Phil.

    I have the 2017 $30/$40 IRBT Bull call spread Phil.Would you sell some cheeky calls against this position and if so for what strike and what month.Maybe even consider selling calls on half.

    You opinion appreciated.



  49. Phil are you looking for another bounce off 1010 or is it game over today?

  50. UCO / Phil,

    Similar to the above covered calls/puts on USO for the OOP, the July option prices look very attractive for UCO considering its only selling at $8.44.  Those $10 calls/puts brings the UCO price down to only $3.60.    Would you recommend doing the same for UCO as you did in the OOP for USO?

  51. So much for that "rally".  Oil round-tripping – someone must have said no meeting again.

    New stock/StJ – Yeah, that's going to be a tough call.  Still robotics or AI, I think though LMT may be a good horse if the fusion thing pans out.  I would prefer it if they were cheap to start with but I already regret letting go of them last year – that's a good sign.

    IRBT/DM – On that one I'd sell the Jan $30s ($8) and stay short the $40s ($3.10) – I don't see that happening by Jan.  You can cap margin by selling the $55s for $0.50

    /TF/Craigs – Tsk, tsk – very greedy!  It would have to hit 1,000 for me to go long again, not 1,010 and, of course, everyone else would have to show strength at the pink lines (/ES 1,900, /YM 16,150 and /NQ 4,150, which already failed).  With oil failing to hold $32 – we could get a nasty sell-off and the Dollar hasn't even recovered yet!  

    I am long 2 /NKD at 16,800 – that one I couldn't resist!  

    Will be back in /NGK6 @ $2.10 or $2.12 if that comes first with a DD at $2.10 for $2.11 avg.

    UCO/GC – That's why we took that July bull call spread.  I prefer that to owning UCO – keep in mind we sold USO puts, not UCO, to avoid the decay issue. 

  52. UCO / Phil

    Thanks.   I"m in the UCO BCS and short USO puts exactly as you previously recommended and happy to ride it out. 

  53. Badness taking us down:

    • The retail sector is struggling after Kohl's issues soft guidance and with several reports from store chains (Cato, Zumiez, Fred's) tipping weak January traffic.
    • Department store decliners include J.C. Penney (JCP -3.1%), Macy's (M -2.7%), Nordstrom (JWN -5.6%), and Dillard's (DDS -1.3%). While mall names Gap (GPS -1.4%), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO -1.6%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF -2.2%), Children's Place (PLCE -3.1%), and Carter's (CRI -1.9%) are also weak compared to the broad market.
    • Target (TGT -3%), Costco (COST -2.8%), and Wal-Mart (WMT -1%) are also lower. Earlier today. Costco reported a +1% comp in the U.S. for January.
    • Discount-leaning Fred's (FRED -8.7%), Dollar Tree (DLTR -3.1%), Dollar General (DG-1.6%), Big Lots (BIG -3%), Five Below (FIVE -2.9%), TJX Companies (TJX -2.2%), and Ross Stores (ROST -1.2%) are also feeling a pinch.

    MetLife lower after disappointing results; buybacks suspended

    • Weak investment returns thanks to hedge fund and private-equity investment losseswere behind the insurer's big miss last night. It's not just MetLife (MET -3.8%) – AIG promises a significant reduction in hedge fund investments after "a very negative experience in 2015."
    • Met also experienced weaker profit margins in a number of its core insurance underwriting businesses.
    • Other issues include whether the company should keep its Snoopy and other Peanuts characters as its splits of its U.S. retail business. Marketing experts expect the dog to go with the operations. "Would anyone buy the Corona brand without the lime? Or the cola business from Coca-Cola without the contour bottle?"
    • On the earnings call, management says concern regulators could require a boost in capital thanks to its variable annuities business was a key reason for the split plan.
    • As the company has material nonpublic information about its separation plans, it's suspended its buyback program indefinitely.
    • Previously: MetLife stung by poor investment performance (Feb. 3)

    I love my value plays!  Mattel shakes off another bear at 52-week highs

    • Mattel (MAT +0.5%) scores a two-notch upgrade from Argus. The investment firm moves to a Buy rating from Sell after digesting Mattel's earnings and guidance earlier this week.
    • Mattel is up over 20% this week and carved out a 52-week high yesterday.
    • SA contributor's Dave Dierking post-earnings dive on Mattel concludes that the lush dividend should stand.
    • Previously: Mattel picks up upgrade after strong earnings (Feb. 02 2016)
    • Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) is up 14% to recover nicely from the Amazon bookstore development earlier this week that threw a death scare into investors.
    • It's unclear what Amazon's plans are on the brick-and-mortar front which puts B&N back in the same position it was in to begin the week.
    • College bookstore player Barnes & Noble Education (BNED +5.8%) is also solidly higher.
    • Previously: General Growth CEO walks back Amazon comment (updated) (Feb. 03 2016)
    • Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD) is off 2.5% in U.S. trading following a fiscal third quarter showing continuing growth in underlying revenue, feeding the company's story that Europe (its biggest regional business) is back on track.
    • Underlying service revenue grew 1.4% and the company is tracking toward in-line full-year earnings of £11.7B-£12B. Decline in underlying revenue in Europe slowed again, to 0.6% from Q2's decline of 1%.
    • Emerging markets saw underlying revenue growth of 6.5%. "We have taken another step forward in the last three months, with the highlights being a strong performance in South Africa and improving trends in Germany and Italy," says CEO Vittorio Colao.
    • Its "Project Spring" worldwide upgrade plan is 92% through its mobile buildout, with 4G coverage now at 84% in Europe. The company has committed £19B to the plan.
    • Press release

  54. Wow, this market is insane!  16,900 already tested on /NKD, back over 1,910 on /ES, 16,327 on /YM.  I still like /NKD best because it can zoom up on a stronger Dollar.

  55. Insane indeed – there are 2 kinds of day traders in this market, the quick and the dead it seems.

  56. NRA: Restaurant industry contracts in December

    Due to weak sales, Restaurant Performance Index falls below 100 for first time in three years

  57. And restaurants were supposed to be doing well? 

  58. GoPro, once a high flying tech company and Wall Street darling, is getting destroyed.

    The stock is down over 80% in the past 12 months and revenues are sliding along with it.

    After a disastrous quarterly report, the company and its executives are trying to re-brand themselves and convince investors …

  59. As stocks have fallen from their highs last July, the dividend yield for the S&P 500 has risen up to 2.35%. With the yield on the 10-Year Treasury …

  60. Republicans have a problem with poverty

    Senior politicians including Marco Rubio, the presidential candidate, and Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House of Representatives, are among the …

  61. Tidjane Thiam’s sweeping restructuring was meant to convince investors that Credit Suisse was finally on the road to recovery after several difficult …

  62. Defunding Planned Parenthood clinics leaves some poor women unable to access the most effective forms of birth control, according to a new study from …

  63. Google is trying to make smartphones that can solve problems on their own

    Last October, Google CEO Sundar Pichai spoke about what machine learning means for Google.

    He called it “transformative,” and said that Google was “rethinking everything we’re doing” in the context of machine learning.

    A subset of artificial intelligence, machine learning is an approach in which …

  64. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) fired off a fundraising solicitation on Thursday based on a recent interview in which Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein discussed Sanders’ campaign.

    “Make a $3 contribution today to say you have had ENOUGH of Lloyd Blankfein and the billionaire class buying up …

  65. Fed’s ‘accommodation’ outrun by tightening credit

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Even as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in December its message was clear: it wanted to keep monetary conditions loose and felt the United States still needed accommodation to keep a modest recovery underway.

    Now, markets seem to have taken matters into their …

  66. A lot has happened in markets just five weeks into the new year.

    For one, the S&P 500 has fallen about 6%.

    And in a note Thursday, UBS equity strategist Julian Emanuel revised his 2016 S&P 500 year-end target down to 2,175 from 2,275.

    His target had been among the most bullish on Wall Stret at the end …

  67. Sports Authority Said to Take Steps Toward a Bankruptcy Filing

    Sports Authority Inc. is preparing to file for bankruptcy as it faces a debt payment due in 10 days, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

  68. Recession Fears Stoked as Higher U.S. Labor Costs Crimp Profits

    The biggest rise in U.S. labor costs in eight years is squeezing company profits and heightening fears of a recession.

    Expenses per worker — so …

  69. New div play on CSCO buy stock @ 23.38 and sell Mar1 23.5 call for .80 Return 3.6%

    downside protection 22.58 as well expected div of .21 cents 

  70. I have no position in oil but this article has a nice map showing locations of the various oil play fields we read about:

  71. Phil/NKD

    Did you stop out earlier? Reloading? 

  72. NKD/Phil – we are below 16800, I don't have a position, should I add 1?

  73. Phil – Financials/Banks –  "the KBW Bank Index extended its three-day decline to as much as 7.5 percent earlier Wednesday – the fifth time this year a loss has exceeded 5 percent over such a stretch, data compiled by Bloomberg show. At times this week, losses from Bank of America Corp. to Citigroup Inc. have exceeded 10 percent.  Daily drubbings in financials are rapidly supplanting anxiety over oil and its related shares as the equity market's biggest headache. At 15.7 percent of the Standard & Poor's 500, banks, brokerages and insurance companies are second only to technology companies as the biggest group and more than twice the size of energy producers."

    The banks invest more in UST's than in business loans, and the flattening yield curve is destroying their NIM's i.e. the differential between their cost of funds and the yield they earn on Treasuries. If anyone "thinks" energy is a problem, with lower rates, credit concerns, a flatter yield curve, and un advertised systemic liquidity issues, there is a reason financials are getting punished.   IMHO, I would stay just as far away from US banks as Euro banks, don't care how much of a bargain it may seem to be.

  74. Phil - This market is insane -  Saw this tweet re yesterday: "stocks rallied because oil rallied, oil rallied because the dollar sold off, the dollar sold off because stocks sold off, I'm going home now."

  75. Phil, re knot tying, well it worked, you're still alive… LOL

  76. Phil,

    This has got to be heavy central bank intervention of dollar selling…..$ down to 96.44……to maintain market levels. Market forcing fed's hand for "mo free moniee". 

  77. Nattering,

    I have some Goldman, Well fargo, and JP Morgan preferred stocks with 6-7 % yields that have been rather steady since the 2008 finacial crisis in my ira.  Do you think they would be OK?  Thanks in advance

  78. Any suggestion on RSS reader or iphone app that will help keep up with the posts through the day without setting in front of a PC and hitting refresh? Thanks in advance

  79. Any thoughts on KSS (Kohl's)?

  80. Bulls, check that you didn't disable automatic comment retrieval by mistake. 

  81. Jeffdoc,

    That is enabled. But what I meant is that I don't want to sit in front of the PC if I can get each post as a notification on my phone so I can read it right away instead of refreshing or waiting for the autorefresh. I don't want to be tied to my machine

  82. rs_trade – bank stocks – I don't want to lead you astray and I don't make the market rules.  Like I've said before, it all depends on their BALANCE SHEET position.  NIM and UST carry compression is NOT good for their "current" business model.  Negative rates or NIRP, make that even worse.  Tougher times could be ahead for banks, as witnessed by the referenced index. Maybe there is a bottom forming, and maybe there is a MAJOR rotation currently in progress, along those lines….

    Phil – If you want to know what I think all this oil up, dollar down, market, bond kerfuffle is about, take the red pill and click this link.  Its not long, but its not short and in the end, its about YOUR favorite mantra, which many are taking to heart.  SMILEY while WINKING.

  83. Is that the 3 pm express about to leave the station an hour before the NY close?

  84. /NKD/Jeff – No, still in 2 and looking to DD at 16,600 (assuming 1,900 holds).  16,650 was yesterday's low, it's a violent index!  

    Banks/Naybob – That's why we have NONE in our portfolios.  Well, we do have CM still in the LTP and some leftover FAS in the STP…  They are getting cheap enough that they are getting attractive again (like BAC) as there's nothing going on that hasn't been an obvious trend for months.

    Intervention/Jasu – But who is intervening to weaken the Dollar?  Only really in our interest other than the Swiss, who want a stronger Euro (so weaker Dollar is a side effect).  I think the Dollar was irrationally exuberant (with all the "King Dollar" BS) and is simply reverting to mean now that it's obvious the Fed isn't going to be ratcheting up rates any time soon AND the other Central Banks don't really have a taste to ease any further.  

    Money going back into TBills and Gold and Safety Stocks (fear) means less demand for Dollars and slow consumer spending, slow retail and we're back to the old zero velocity problem our money is having – no matter how much of it they print.  I'm very surprised that no candidate (other than Bernie) is talking about infrastructure spending and no one in Europe or Asia is doing it either.  If we don't start spending money on things that create jobs and use materials – then we will fall into a recession.

    RSS/Bulls – Every morning there's a link at the bottom of the post (right before the first comment) to the RSS 2.0 feed for that day's live chat.  I don't know what the best reader is – I never use them but there are dozens out there.

    KSS/Tangled – Are they still in business?  The last time I liked them was back in later 2012 at $43.76:

    2012/12/11 at 9:44 am

    SS/RJ – There is much debate as to whether their new strategy will work out.  I like them down here ($43.76) but you can certainly expect a rough ride so I'd blow off the dividend (2.9%) and go with an artificial buy/write like shorting the 2015 $35 puts for $4.40 and buying the $38/50 bull call spread for $5.20 for net .80 on the $12 spread that's $5.76 in the money to start.  That way, your worst case is owning them at net $35.80 (18% off) at 1x, which is nice and flexible and, of course, the upside is a very respectable $11.20 gain.

    That worked but, since then, we have not been fans.  Now that they are back to $41.50, they are fairly priced given the margin squeeze all retail is under but less M&A activity and a pullback in FREE MONEY means you can't count on buyout rumors to sustain them and SHLD has been flooding the World with retail properties for sale, so the breakup value is not as certain as it was 3 years ago.  So, given all that – I'd have to say pass for now – until we see a better overall market.  

    Also Bulls – make sure you go to your Member Profile (top right) and have Top Trade Alerts checked off – we only do them once or twice a week but it's a good way to get trades to your phone.  

    Actually, we're working on a very cool project at PSW Investments where we will be able to send trade ideas to mobile devices and there will be a TRADE button that will connect to your broker and automatically set up the trade in your account.  Still in App development but looks promising enough (and we have brokers on board) that I can mention it now.   Does that sound cool? 

    Volatility/Naybob – Brent failing to hold $35 is the story of the markets today. Also, Companies aren't holding off Bond auctions because they don't want to sell bonds that pay 0% or lower rates – that would be silly, wouldn't it.  Only a company with zero debt wouldn't want to do that.  The problem is the 0% is artificial and no one is going to give a company money at that rate unless the CBs go deeply negative and, at that point – what is the purpose of money if all it does is lose value?   They are cancelling auctions to maintain the fantasy of demand at 0% so they can lower the rates they pay to starving seniors and their own creditors (also starving seniors since they looted retirement accounts to fund the debt).  

    Anyway, this is why we are long gold, especially ABX and NEM, who have actual gold and not that BS paper ETFs depend on.  HMY (high-risk) and NAK (purely speculative) are my other 2 favorite miners.  

    The thing is, Naybob, that this is something we bet on a year ago and we're already loaded up for ZIRP and this is simply the inevitable end game we expected that will, in time, get the inflationary ball rolling – not lead to a 10-year recession.  Try not to get on the wrong side of this one.  

    Submitted on 2015/11/08 at 6:37 pm

    Miners/Mkucs – As you know, I only like ABX.  GG not so bad, HMY as a junior (but SA is a disaster at the moment) and NAK as a speculative long-shot.  For silver I like SLW.  Companies like AG or HL dilute or borrow to keep themselves afloat while ABX or GG sell off assets.  Not really saying one is better than the other but ABX, for example, sold off 40M ounces of gold reserves for about $8Bn in the past year – that's why I like them, because they have that choice (and still 100M ounces left).  As to nat gas – 1) It gets cold in the Winter, 2) A Gulf Hurricane can send prices flying up 3) We're below the cost of production for probably 1/3 of the wells and 4) LNG export terminals are coming on-line.  I don't know WHEN /NG will finally pop back to $2.50-3 but I have a hard time seeing why it won't happen over the next 4 months.  

    /NKD still a short at 19,500 (now).

    Gold/Pat – Well my main view on gold is that it costs about $1,050 to pull it out of the ground so that's a floor I'm willing to put my foot down at.    Of course, you can't play it like a trade – you have to "buy" gold – meaning if it goes down you take delivery or DCA lower and simply wait for the day when the excess supply finally drains out and they have to pay the miners again to get some more.  

    Of course mining costs are down due to lower oil and lower labor costs and ABX says they are down near $900 but they were in a unique position to sell off all their "expensive" mines and just keep the efficient ones.  Normal-sized miners don't have the luxury of simply not bothering to mind gold that doesn't fetch a good price.  

    So I don't have a short-term prediction (certainly not for this week or next) but the Dollar is up 1.4% and gold is down 2.3% today, which is right about what you'd expect and the the Fed wasn't that hawkish and Draghi wasn't that dovish (though Abe was) so I don't think 100 will pop on the Dollar and, once the Dollar stops going up, the downward pressure on gold and silver will subside and they can drift back up.


    GDX/StJ – So many oversold miners but still I think ABX is a better bet than just picking the index along with its bad apples.  NEM, HMY, and NAK are still my more speculative faves. 

    Submitted on 2016/01/29 at 9:56 am

    Only talked about gold with Bloomberg.  This guy was their gold specialist and he had no idea the COMEX is massively over-subscribedand he has no idea how GLD and other gold ETFs function – scary!  

    I mentioned ABX, of course and we do have 25 2018 $3 calls in the LTP at $3.60, now $6.80 but I'm not inclined to cover them just yet.  We'll see how they do at the $10 line.  We helped paid for them with 10 short April $7 puts at $1.57 and they are now dead at 0.13.

    As a new play on ABX, I'd sell the 2018 $10 puts for $3 and buy 2x of the $7 ($4)/$12 ($2.20) bull call spreads for $1.80 so net 0.60 on $10 worth of spreads that are $5.20 in the money to start.

    So, as I said, we've been on this play for ages.  We're already past this ZIRP "crisis" and looking ahead to the next thing.  

    3pm/Jasu – Still on cue!  Amazing how we can count on something like that, isn't it?  

    And /NKD is back to 16,850!  

  85. LOL, sorry, didn't realize it was 3:30 already.  I went off on a tangent looking over gold miners.  Still like ABX best, then NEM and then HMY more aggressive and NAK just diluted in Dec but still potential for a 10-bagger if this and that goes right for them down the road (highly speculative).  

  86. Speaking of miners – GDX breaking over its 200 DMA pretty decisively today! It has been a while since that has happened. I am glad I didn't cover yesterday!

  87. Oh, and check out GDX:

    This is what I mean about ETFs – why play an ETF when you can just play the strongest stocks in the ETF.  GDX (same as XLF and others) includes a lot poor performers and, after a prolonged downturn like this, some of them might not make it out the other side.  That drags the index down, even when gold is turning around and unfettered plays like ABX or HMY are doubling up.  

  88. And got busy with calls today and no time for earnings information…

  89. Phil/NKD

    Hold them overnight? 

  90. Phil – New App – That would be cool…Thanks

  91. GDX / Phil – The ETF will be less volatile on the upside but also the downside. It's the risk/reward trade-off. ABX lost more than 50%, HMY over 70% while GDX lost less than 40% in the chart that you showed. And I am OK with that trade-off myself.

  92. Why should the Dollar be over 100?

    See, these monthly charts can provide real clarity!  cool

    Gold is not all about the Dollar.  Gold is about how much gold there is in the World vs. how much currency there is in the World and gold should grow with the global money supply (we can't increase the amount of gold (which comes from rare neutron star collisions, so the only way there will be more gold is if the earth is destroyed by a gold asteroid).  And we know we've been cranking up the money supply like crazy recently.  It was only a matter of time before gold began to reflect it.  

    /NKD/Jeff – It's only 2 long so I'm going to stick with it.  Hopefully they stick save the week into China's week-long holiday next week.

  93. Phil – So long gold/short earth would be the perfect pair the day we find out an asteroid is coming our way. I'll keep that in mind! 

  94. Phil/GLD

    I guess the GLD train has already left. It has been going up for the past few days without much break. the ABX 7/12 BCS with put sale – is this a new trade that you will look at now.

    It is so weird that most of people here were talking of bottoming in march/april and then suddenly gold and silver are running up like crazy…one cannot hit those bottom calls with market news as it is so manipulated. You method of finding value and setting up trades in advance with margin of safety helps in long way……


  95. GLD/StJ – Not long gold if an asteroid-full is coming!  It is strange how amazingly unlikely it is that a habitable planet would have been hit by a gold asteroid at one point that boiled back up to the surface and left deposits in the crust.

    ABX/Pat – That was an old one – I have been banging the table on ABX for a year.  As a new play I'd sell the 2018 $10 puts ($2.55) and buy the $10 ($3.80)/17 ($1.80) bull call spread for $2 so net 0.55 credit on the $7 spread that's $1.20 in the money to start.  Worst case is you own ABX for $9.45.

  96. Asteroid / Phil – What do you mean, the earth was not created 6000 years ago and all these deposits (gold, oil and others) left behind for us to find by the gods? 

    BTW, note for next time – leave resources in easier places to reach and peaceful regions!

  97. StJL – YES and dinosaurs never existed hundreds of millions of years ago, the Earth is flat, a man cannot run a mile in under 4 mins, the speed of sound cannot be broken… They are not gods, progenitors or Prometheus and we are the aliens. As I always say, when you need to get laid, call an ancient astronaut theorist, as they always say YES!!!  Mankind could not achieve anything without those other world beings violating the prime directive. Is it coincidence? I think not. LMAO.

    Phil – The looters and rapists - "unless the CBs go deeply negative and, at that point – what is the purpose of money if all it does is lose value?"    Exactly what we brought up in the ZIRP bank paradigm. The market reaction along with negative swap spreads indicates the final arbiter does not believe Kuroda, Draghi or Yellen. Imagine that?  Only a market implosion can result in higher rates. And as the CB's will not allow it, if they can, a rather large TBD.  We can only hope, put that in one hand and you know what you get first in the other… that Bernie gets elected and somehow overcomes the "gridlock by design" which gives the illusion or delusion of democracy. Out.

  98. PHIL/ABX

    I have an APR 5/7 BCS  you recommended a while back  maybe in OOPS. On TOS,  closing it it shows 2.07…. more than the 2.00 at expire!

    My inclination is Buy back the short APR 7 call and leave the long APR 5 uncovered for now.  

    What do you think?

     also have an  ABX Jan17 5/17 BCS with a Jan 18 5 short put which I'll leave alone for now.

  99. LNKD getting killed AH… For some reasons investors seem to be now demanding actual profits!

  100. Now would be the time to do it:

    Of course, oil companies and their buddies in Congress are opposed to it:

    As expected, the oil industry is not amused. American Petroleum Institute CEO Jack Gerard issued the following statement: "The White House thinks Americans are not paying enough for gasoline, so they have proposed a new tax that could raise the cost of gasoline by 25 cents a gallon, harm consumers that are enjoying low energy prices, destroy American jobs and reverse America's emergence as a global energy leader." He continued,"On his way out of office, President Obama has now proposed making the United States less competitive."

    They were of course not that worried about US consumers when oil was at $100 and they were raking billions in profits.

  101. GDX/StJ – Well the trick is to buy at the bottom, not the top! 

    /NKD back to 16,800 after just missing our 16,600 goal on a spike down.- what a ride!  

    Half back out, of course and stop now at 16,800 to lock in the gains.  

    Same for /NG, stop now $2.17

    ABX/Gerry – If you can get $2+ for a $2 spread – TAKE IT!  No sense in trying to turn it into something else when you can just take the $2 and simply buy another spread that will gain another 100% plus you already have the $5/17 spread so why be greedy?

    LNKD/StJ – Going to be a rough ride for the Nas if that's the case.  

    Oil tax/StJ – Wow, that's my proposal from last time oil was this cheap.  Would be great if he could actually pull it off.

  102. Share buyback machine remains in overdrive and experts warn it will end badlyCompanies are draining funds with buybacks, instead of investing in growthCompanies, even those that are missing profit and sales estimates and cutting outlooks, or restructuring and cutting jobs, are still announcing buybacks. Coming after a long period of intensive spending on shareholder returns, the news is bad for investors hoping to see a return to growth. “We continue to be skeptical about how companies are deploying capital, especially when it’s tied to stock-based compensation,” said Ben Silverman, vice president of research at InsiderScore, a research firm that tracks buybacks and legal insider trading for institutional clients. “We believe buybacks can be used to mask management’s inability to grow the business and be innovative thinkers.” William Lazonick, professor of economics at University of Massachusetts Lowell and director of the Center for Industrial Competitiveness., went a step further, suggesting that buybacks have the potential to push the U.S. into recession. He argues that companies are using them to prop up share prices at the expense of reinvesting in the business and supporting job stability and long-term growth. “It has the potential to really drive the economy into the ground,” he said. “Companies have given away so much money, it’s been a long-run secular problem that has contributed to why income is so concentrated at the top.” Data shows that 78% of the total compensation paid to executives at the top 500 U.S. companies in 2014 went on stock options and stock awards, he said. “Executives are basically incentivized and rewarded for getting the stock up, and buybacks are a prime way of doing that,” he said.

    Fed's Mester: 'Gradual' rate hikes to continue

    HY Primary Markets Are All But Shut" – What Keeps BofA's Junk Bond Analyst Up At Night

    U.S.-based stock funds post 5th straight week of withdrawals: Lipper.Investors pulled $6.5 billion out of U.S.-based stock funds during the week ended Feb. 3, Lipper data showed on Thursday, as investors largely shunned risky financial assets for the fifth straight week. U.S.-based corporate investment-grade bond funds, another gauge of risk appetite, also saw significant cash withdrawals, with investors yanking $1.5 billion from the sector for an 11th straight week. U.S.-based emerging market debt funds posted $415 million in outflows, the group's 15th straight week of cash withdrawals, Lipper said.


    Brexit support snowballs. Support for Britain leaving the European Union — Brexit — has gained a massive amount of momentum since the UK's Prime Minister David Cameron published his draft EU deal this week. In the latest YouGov poll, commissioned by The Times newspaper, 45% are in favour of leaving the 28 nation bloc while 36% support staying in the EU.


     China’s Foreign Reserves Poised for Record Drop on Yuan DefenseChina’s foreign-exchange reserves, already at a three-year low, are poised to post a second consecutive record monthly drop as policy makers intervene to support the yuan. The central bank will say Sunday that the currency hoard fell by $118 billion to $3.2 trillion in January, according to economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey. That would exceed a record $108 billion decline in December, which brought last year’s total draw-down to more than half a trillion dollars and capped the first annual decrease in the reserves since 1992. Policy makers are burning through billions of dollars to hold up a weakening currency amid flagging growth and $1 trillion in capital outflows last year. The yuan sank to a five-year low last month as the People’s Bank of China set the reference rate at an unexpectedly weak level, a signal that it’s more tolerant of depreciation as growth slows. “China is facing a significant capital outflow problem,” said Krishna Memani, who helps oversee $217 billion as chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Funds Inc. in New York. “It’s an astounding reduction in their capital account position. This is an issue they’ve been aware of, and they have to find a way of managing it. The economy itself cannot turn this around.”

    Japan's Bear Market Digs In as Stock Pessimists Crash BOJ Party. Japanese stock investors trying to escape from bear territory may want to prepare for a long and painful road back. Since the Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled more than 20 percent from a peak last month, Japanese equities have made several attempts at rallies, only to falter as the market gets swept along in a global selloff spurred by tumbling oil prices. Even optimism over central bank stimulus — a frequent rescuer of stocks during the bull market — has failed to spark a sustained rallyHistory supports the view that the recovery will take time. Wiping out a bear market takes seven and a half months on average, according to an analysis of the index’s 14 occurrences since 1989. Worse, shares tend to fall further after the initial 20 percent drop — the Nikkei has slid an additional 18 percent on average, according to the data that include steep selloffs in the early 1990s, the Asian financial crisis, the dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis.

    Yen Set for Best Week Since 2009 as Fed Outlook Overtakes BOJThe yen is set for its biggest advance against the dollar in more than six years as concern about global economic growth and mounting doubt over whether U.S. interest rates will rise this year overshadow the impact of Japan adopting negative rates.

    Asian Stocks Fall as Japanese Shares Drop Amid Strengthening Yen. Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index heading for a weekly loss, after Japanese shares declined as the strengthening yen pressured major exporters. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.5 percent to 120.53 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure is poised for a 0.7 percent decline this week as Japan’s Topix index erased its gains from last Friday’s Bank of Japan stimulus and the yen headed for its best weekly gain in seven years.“It’s still way too early to say we’ve found the bottom,” Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., said by phone.

    Reserve Bank of Australia issues confident outlook

    • The Reserve Bank of Australia issued a cautiously optimistic report on the economy in Australia in a new monetary policy statement. The RBA sees growth of 2.5% to 3.5% this year and headline inflation of between 2% and 3%.
    • The central bank warned that uncertainty with key trading partner China is still a significant risk.
    • Analysts think that if the RBA is it to be moved off its 2% benchmark rate level, it will be due to offshore headwinds.

    World's Biggest Containership "Hard Aground" As Baltic Dry Crashes Below 300 For First Time Ever

    The 'transportation recession' is getting worse

    Welcome To The Recovery: 1 In 7 Americans (45.5 Million) Remain On Food Stamps

    Genworth plunges; halting sales of traditional life insurance and fixed annuities

    • Q4 net operating loss of $82M or $0.17 per share vs. $415M and $0.83 one year ago. This year's result includes after-tax charges of $184M or $0.37 per share mostly driven by assumption changes in universal life insurance.
    • The company will begin moves aimed at separating and isolating the long-term care business. In addition, Genworth (NYSE:GNW) is suspending all sales of traditional life insurance and fixed annuity products, which should save about $50M annually (will post a $15M pre-tax charge in 2016 Q1).
    • Book value per share, excluding AOCI, of $19.71 vs. $21.09 one year ago.
    • Conference call tomorrow at 8 ET
    • Previously: Genworth Financial EPS of -$0.59 (Feb. 4)
    • GNW -15.8% after hours to $2.35.

    Citi: 'We Should All Fear Oilmageddon'A feedback loop of the U.S. dollar, crude, capital flows, and emerging markets. Markets are currently in a well-oiled "death spiral," according to Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Jonathan Stubbs. "It appears that four inter-linked phenomena are driving a negative feedback loop in the global economy and across financial markets," the analysts write, citing the resilient U.S. dollar, lower commodities prices, weaker trade and capital flows, and declining emerging market growth. "It seems reasonable to assume that another year of extreme moves in U.S. dollar (higher) and oil/commodity prices (lower) would likely continue to drive this negative feedback loop and make it very difficult for policy makers in emerging markets and developing markets to fight disinflationary forces and intercept downside risks," the analysts add. "Corporate profits and equity markets would also likely suffer further downside risk in this scenario of Oilmageddon."

    Four Days After Predicting Oil Will Double, T. Boone Pickens Sells All Oil Holdings

    A Saudi-Russian Oil Détente? Not LikelyMoscow’s call for talks went nowhere, but oil prices jumpedA deal is not only “highly unlikely,” in the estimation of Goldman Sachs, but “self-defeating” for the Saudis. By cutting production now and boosting prices, Saudi Arabia would effectively bail out U.S. shale producers just as the Saudi strategy of keeping prices low to squeeze them out of the market is beginning to work, Goldman’s Jeff Currie argues.

    Big Oil Opts for Payouts Over Debt RatingAs cheap oil siphons cash, companies borrow to pay dividends, threatening credit standing. The world’s biggest energy companies have a tough decision to make amid languishing oil prices: Do they keep their coveted investment-grade credit ratings or maintain century-old practices of paying shareholders annual dividends worth billions in cash?

    • Investors punished ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), sending shares down 8.6% in today's trade, after cutting its dividend by two-thirds and resulting in a dividend yield of 2.6%, in line with the average yield of 2.4% for independent E&P companies but below the 4.4% average of oil majors.
    • Several analysts on COP's earnings conference call asked what the company now has to offer investors, following decades of offering lower growth but strong shareholder distributions through buybacks and a growing dividend.
    • CEO Ryan Lance called the decision to cut the payout "gut wrenching," but he believes the business still offers a competitive dividend and a low-cost supply of oil and gas resources that will generate free cash at a lower break-even price.
    • Paul Sankey of Wolfe Research questioned the magnitude of the cut, saying COP’s problems were less dire than those at many of its rivals, adding that he was concerned that "you've capitulated at the bottom" of crude oil prices.
    • Wells Fargo’s Roger Read, on the other hand, argues the company “did what had to be done," seeing COP's position as now "fundamentally strengthened for a sustained lower oil price environment."
    • Petrobras (PBR +8.6%) is downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at J.P. Morgan, which says many challenges remain despite management having taken "necessary and adequate" steps to resolve the financial challenges facing the company.
    • JPM analyst Marcos Severine compares current sentiment on the stock to the 1980 boxing match between Sugar Ray Leonard and Roberto Durán when the latter threw in the towel, saying “no más, no más" – Severine also is saying "no más," because of a "never-seen combination of macro conditions – very low Brent prices and sizeable FX devaluation – followed by limited access to the debt market."
    • Severine says PBR is facing ongoing constraints in accessing the debt market with the stock now downgraded to junk, and thinks PBR will have to announce additional measures to further curb its cash needs in 2016-19.

    Mining Rally Questioned by Jefferies to Investec Amid GlutThe best two days for mining companies since the depths of the recession might be the end of the good times as the gluts across metals keep prices low. That’s the view of analysts at Jefferies LLC and Investec Plc who predict the gains won’t last. The Bloomberg World Mining Index surged 10 percent, adding more than $44 billion to the combined market value of the 80 companies tracked by the measure. The rally was propelled by a weaker dollar that makes commodities, including copper and gold, attractive alternative investments. Industrial-metal prices plunged 27 percent last year, the worst performance since 2008, as the market grappled with excess supplies amid cooling demand from China, the world’s biggest consumer. While miners including Freeport-McMoRan Inc. and Glencore Plc have trimmed production, the cuts haven’t been deep enough to end the glut. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts copper will remain in surplus through at least 2020. A resilient U.S. economy will keep a lid on gold, which has fallen for the past three years, according to Societe Generale SA. “The bounce may be short lived because the fundamental outlook is still troublesome and looks likely to remain that way for some time,” Tai Wong, the director of commodity products trading at BMO Capital Markets in New York, said in a telephone interview. “These short-term players will sell as quickly as they bought.

    • In addition to missing FQ3 sales estimates (while beating on EPS), Deckers (NYSE:DECK) is guiding for 7.2% Y/Y FQ4 revenue growth (7.9% exc. forex) and EPS of $0.07, below a consensus for 13% growth and EPS of $0.36.
    • Along with the numbers, Deckers has announced a restructuring featuring office consolidations, brand management "realignment," and 20 retail store closings. The company is aiming for $35M/year in cost savings, with plans to reinvest $10M.
    • CEO Angel Martinez: "Our third quarter was more challenging than we expected as warm weather and weak store traffic across retail pressured demand." USS brand sales +1% Y/Y to $743.2M; Teva +3.2% to $14.1M; Sanuk -17% to $17M; other brands +48.4% to $21.6M.
    • U.S. sales +3.2% o $543.3M; international -2.2% to $252.6M. Gross margin fell 380 bps Y/Y to 49.1%; it's expected to be up 80 bps Y/Y in FQ4 to 45.5%. Inventories +26.1% to $370.6M. Deckers ended FQ3 with $263M in cash and $23.5M in borrowings.
    • Deckers has tumbled to $43.80 after hours. Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) has dropped to $8.75.
    • Deckers' FQ3 resultsearnings release
    • Hanesbrands (NYSE:HBI) disappointed in Q4 after sales fell off for both the activewear and innerwear product lines. The sales drop was more pronounced in the international segment due to F/X translation.
    • The company expects to deliver EPS of $1.85 to $1.91 this year vs. $1.90 consensus.
    • Execs rolled out the warm weather excuse as a factor for weak demand in key categories.
    • Previously: Hanesbrands misses by $0.02, misses on revenue (Feb. 4)
    • Shares of HBI fell over 11% in the after-hours session

    Ubiquiti up 18.3% after FQ2 beat, strong FQ3 guidance

    • Ubiquiti (NASDAQ:UBNT) has surged to $33.20 after hours after soundly beating FQ2 estimates and issuing strong FQ3 guidance – revenue of $160M-$170M and EPS of $0.53-$0.60 vs. a consensus of $158.8M and $0.51.
    • Top-line performance: Lifting FQ2 sales: Service provider revenue rose 10% Y/Y to $109.6M, after having dropped 4% in FQ1. Enterprise revenue (driven by Wi-Fi hardware) fell 2% to $52.3M, after having grown 12% in FQ1. North American, South American, EMEA, and Asia-Pac sales each rose Y/Y.
    • Financials: Gross margin rose to 48.8% from FQ1's 48.5% and the year-ago period's 45.1%. GAAP operating expenses rose 23% Y/Y to $22.6M – $15.4M was spent on R&D and $7.4M on SG&A, and another $257K was recovered from last year's fraud loss.

      Ubiquiti ended FQ2 with $496.7M in cash and $125.5M in debt. The company's $50M buyback program (announced with the FQ1 report) has been completed.

    • Ubiquiti's FQ2 resultsearnings release

    LinkedIn -27.5% due to guidance; field sales growth expected to slow, acquisition announced

    • LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD): Q4 EPS of $0.94 beats by $0.16.
    • Revenue of $861.9M (+34.0% Y/Y) beats by $4.31M.
    • Expects Q1 revenue of $820M, below an $866.7M consensus.
    • Expects 2016 revenue of $3.6B-$3.65B and EPS of $3.05-$3.20, below a consensus of $3.91B and $3.67.
    • Shares -19% after hours.
    • Press Release
    • While discussing its 2016 guidance, LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) says it expects its field sales hiring solutions business to see mid-20% growth in 2016, after exiting 2015 at 30% growth. The outlook is said to reflect "continued pressure in EMEA and APAC given current global economic conditions," and single-digit growth for self-serve products. It also doesn't assume "meaningful contribution" from LinkedIn's Referrals and new Recruiter products.
    • Also: For its Marketing Solutions (ad) business, LinkedIn is shuttering its Lead Accelerator product as a standalone offering, and incorporating its technology into the Sponsored Updates ad product. The move is expected to have a short-term revenue impact. Nonetheless, LinkedIn forecasts Marketing Solutions will "accelerate in 2016."
    • Meanwhile, spending will stay aggressive: Capex will equal a high-teens % of 2016 revenue, and aggressive investments will be made for LinkedIn's Sales Solutions and Learning & Development (formerly platforms.
    • Q4 sales/traffic details: Talent Solutions revenue (62% of total) +45% Y/Y to $535M – hiring revenue +32% to $487M, Learning & Development revenue totaled $49M. Over 3K corporate solutions accounts were added, raising the total above 42K (+29% Y/Y); LinkedIn won't disclose this metric going forward. The add-on/renewal rate "decreased moderately" Y/Y.
      Marketing Solutions +20% to $183M, with Sponsored Updates surpassing 50% of segment revenue and display ad sales dropping by a high-30s % amid ongoing "secular-driven headwinds." Premium Subscriptions +19% to $144M, with Sales Navigator providing a lift. LinkedIn notes general subscriptions are now growing only at a single-digit rate as subscribers migrate to products such as Job Seeker and Recruiter Lite.
      Registered members rose by 18M Q/Q to 414M. Unique visiting members only rose 7% to 100M (57M mobile). Member page views +26% to 37B. The U.S. was 61% of revenue.
    • Financials: 2015 free cash flow was $300M, up from just $21M in 2014. GAAP costs/expenses rose 39% Y/Y in Q4 to $877.9M. On a non-GAAP basis, sales/marketing spend was 31% of revenue, R&D 18%, G&A 11%, and cost of revenue 12%. LinkedIn ended 2015 with $3.1B in cash and $1.1B in convertible debt.
    • In other news, LinkedIn has announced it's buying Connectifier, a startup that has developed A.I.-based search technology for helping recruiters find job candidates. LinkedIn, which bough job search engine/listing platform Bright in 2014, says Connectifier will "further strengthen our core products and accelerate our product roadmap, leveraging powerful machine learning-based searching and matching technology to help recruiters and hiring managers find the perfect talent fit."
    • LinkedIn has tumbled to $139.46 after hours.
    • LinkedIn's results/guidanceearnings releaseslides (.pdf)

    New York Times grows profit on flat revenue, plans newsroom revamp

    • The New York Times Co. (NYSE:NYT) finished up 1.6% after a Q4 earnings report characterized by 48% growth in net income paced by digital growth, but revenue that was flat overall.
    • The company is undergoing a strategic newsroom revamp, designed to advance its digital growth but also to continue success with cost-cutting.
    • “We must turn some things off, and build up the areas that set us apart,” Editor in Chief Dean Baquet said in a memo, adding that "cost is a factor in this exercise.”
    • Revenue breakout: Circulation, $213.3M (up 1.3%); Advertising, $204.8M (down 1.3%); Other, $26.5M (up 0.2%).
    • Circulation revenues benefited from a digital-sub effort, and a price increase for home delivery mitigated an overall decline in print copies.
    • Press Release
    • Shares of News Corp. (NWSNWSA) have had no movement in after-hours trading following an earnings report where revenue slipped for the fourth quarter in a row.
    • Advertising continued its decline in core news services. Revenue overall beat slightly but fell 4.4% Y/Y; EPS of $0.20 missed by $0.01, but fell by a third from the prior year (and by more in continuing operations). Real estate services (paced by provided the bright spot.
    • "Macro-economic conditions in most of our markets have not been auspicious, and foreign exchange fluctuations have been particularly volatile," said CEO Robert Thomson, "but we believe in the enduring value of our prestigious brands and the sound logic of our digital strategy.”
    • Revenue by segment: News and Information Services, $1.4B (down 8%); Book Publishing, $446M (down 5%); Digital Real Estate Services, $208M (up 35%); Cable Network Programming, $106M (down 5%).
    • EBITDA by segment: News and Information Services, $158M (down 27%); Book Publishing, $57M (down 26%); Digital Real Estate Services, $73M (up 28%); Cable Network Programming, $39M (down 28%).

    Sierra -20% after Q4 miss, soft Q1/2016 guidance; buyback plan approved

    • In addition to missing Q4 estimates, Sierra Wireless (NASDAQ:SWIR) is guiding for 2016 revenue of $630M-$670M and EPS of $0.60-$0.90, below consensus estimates of $673.7M and $0.98. Q1 guidance is for revenue of $135M-$145M and "slightly negative to slightly positive" EPS, worse than consensus estimates of $149.4M and $0.10.
    • Sierra on Q4: "[W]e experienced softer demand at select OEM customers [in Q4]. We believe this reflects increased caution on the part of some customers in the face of an uncertain macro-economic environment. Notwithstanding the current environment, we expect our business to gain strength over the course of the year as we enter commercial production on a number of new customer programs, and continue to bring new industry-leading products and solutions to market."
    • Q4 details: OEM Solutions revenue fell 6.2% Y/Y to $121.5M. Enterprise Solutions fell 15.3% to $16.5M. Cloud and Connectivity Services revenue totaled $6.8M.

      Non-GAAP gross margin fell 240 bps Y/Y to 31.2%. Operating expenses rose by $1.8M to $41.9M. Sierra ended Q4 with $93.9M in cash and no debt.

    • Sierra uses its Q4 report to disclose the Toronto Stock Exchange has approved a normal course issuer bid to buy back up to 3.4M shares (9.7% of outstanding shares).
    • Shares have tumbled to $11.75 after hours, making new 52-week lows in the process.
    • Sierra's Q4 resultsearnings release

    Lions Gate down 5.3% as movie weakness spurs Q3 misses

    • Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE:LGF): FQ3 EPS of $0.42 misses by $0.07.
    • Revenue of $670.52M (-10.8% Y/Y) misses by $96.89M.
    • Shares -5.66%.
    • Press Release
    • Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE:LGF) is off 5.3% after hours following a fiscal Q3 miss on top and bottom lines.
    • Theatrical films were softer than expected, acknowledged CEO Jon Feltheimer, but he pointed to strength in TV and a more diversified film slate ahead, with lower costs.
    • Revenue by segment: Motion Picture, $505.8M (down 14.3%); International Motion Picture, $140.1M (down 1.4%); Television Production, $164.7M (up 2.1%).
    • In the Motion Picture segment: Theatrical revenue was comparable at $183.1M but with lower margins due to higher P&A expenses from four wide releases vs. two the prior year. Home entertainment revenue fell 22.4% to $142M based on timing of wide releases. TV revenue from the segment was down to $48.6M, also due to window timing.
    • Filmed entertainment backlog was up to $1.3B on Dec. 31.
    • Conference call to come tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET.
    • Press Release

    WSJ Poll: Bernie Sanders Maintains Big Lead in New HampshireSurvey taken after Iowa caucuses finds that Vermont senator leads Hillary Clinton 58% to 38%.

    Clinton says she's not beholden to Wall Street while raking in $21.4 million

    Odds for Dem Nomination:  Hillary Clinton .71 -.06, Bernie Sanders .25 unch. and Joe Biden .05 +.01.


    Trump Drops 9 Points In National Poll After Losing In Iowa As Rubio Rises, Cruz Steady

    Odds for GOP Nomination:  Marco Rubio .52 +.02, Donald Trump .29 -.02, and Ted Cruz .17 unch.

  103. Damn, stopped out of /NG too early – crossing $2.20 now on /NGK6.  

    Oil spiked up to $32.35 but now back under $32 – what a ride. 

    /NKD still flat around 16,800 

    Futures are flattish too but Europe is moving up so maybe we can pull it together.  Shanghai dropped 0.5% into the close but over 2,700 into the week-long holiday.  

    U.K. car production hits ten-year high

    • U.K. car production hit a ten-year high, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
    • A record level of exports boosted production to almost 1.6M units. Strong sales in the U.S. and Europe offset weakness in deliveries to China.
    • Toyota (NYSE:TM) is on track to top three trillion yen ($25.7B) in annual operating profit even after suspending production in Japan last week due to an explosion at a plant and fighting through recalls.
    • This year, the automaker is outpacing the profit of the rest of the Japanese automakers combined.
    • Toyota recorded Q3 sales of 7.34T yen ($63B) to top the estimate of analysts. Strong sales in North America helped to take up the slack from dips in Europe and Asia.
    • The number of visitors to Macau from Mainland China rose 11% compared to an equivalent pre-Chinese New Year period last year.
    • The number of total visitors to the gambling destination was up 5%.
    • This year's Chinese New Year season is seen as critical for the local arms of Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), and MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM).
    • The official Chinese New Year holiday period begins on February 7.

    Brazil stays committed to Summer Olympics

    • Olympics organizers in Brazil say they have no plans to cancel the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro due to the Zika outbreak.
    • A statement from the Sports Minister Group says the government is "fully committed" to ensure the games take place.
    • Local media on the continent has been buzzing on the prospect of the first Olympics cancellation after the World Health Organization issued a stark warning on Zika earlier this week.

    The final Democratic debate before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary was two hours of trench warfare between skilled rivals who now know their opponent’s weaknesses as well as they know their own strengths. Both made strong attacks, and both defended effectively. This was the most intense debate of the entire cycle, possibly foreshadowing an epic, long-running series of face-to-face contests alternating with primaries and caucuses well into the spring.

  104. I love it when humans celebrate their impending obsolescence:

  105. This is interesting:

    Embedded image permalink

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  106. Here's something cool from another company PSW Investments is working with.  Blade is a point-to-point discount service for private planes and helicopters – they have a really nice package in NYC for valentine's if anyone wants to do something impressive:

    This Valentine's Day,

    Rotors are the new Roses.


    On Valentines Day weekend, BLADE is giving you and your special someone a night you'll never forget.


    Cocktails at the BLADE Lounge

    Your evening begins with cocktails and hors d'oeuvres in our private West Side BLADE Lounge before taking off in your own private helicopter. 

    Your own Private Helicopter Charter

    You and your date will enjoy a stunning flight from the midtown west BLADE Lounge to the lower East Side of Manhattan with panoramic views of the Statue of Liberty, The Freedom Tower and Ellis Island along the way.

    Dinner at Sessanta

    Upon landing, a member of the BLADE C/X Team will guide you to an awaiting car for a short trip to Sessanta, the chic new Italian restaurant in Soho. Once seated at your reserved table, you'll both enjoy a fabulous three course meal of your choosing (cocktails not included).


    The entire experience costs just $595 per couple.

    Speaking of PSW Investments – we have two big projects we're looking at this Q so we're going to open up to take on more investors (or one big one!).  Must be HNW qualified but, if interested, let us know – $100K minimum.  For those of you who don't know, PSW Investments is our fairly new Berkshire-style LLC that owns Philstockworld and makes investments in various early-stage projects.  

  107. /NKD/Phil The Nikkei is currently 16,760, low in its channel but what is the impetus for it to climb?  The news suggests Japanese investors are getting nervous.  Unless China or better Japan does another round of easing it would seem down is as likely as up.

  108. Sibe/

    NKD is a USD denominated Nikkei future. Since USD has lost 5Y in a week (122 to 117), this long play is as much a bet on an Asian stick save before the NY holidays than a currency play.

    We will all find out in 40 min with NFP what gives :)

  109. Thanks lionel.