After having ridiculously and recently placed Trump’s odds of winning the nomination in the low single digits, then the teens, Nate Silver now assesses Trump’s odds of winning at 50%.

Every step of the way, Silver underestimated the real driving force behind Trump: Attitudes.

Instead of following changing attitudes, Silver relied on history regarding non-mainstream candidates.

Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War

On February 21 Silver wrote Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War.

In that article, Silver gave a nice portrayal of the optimists vs. the skeptics but failed to note his own miserable track record as a skeptic. Regardless, Silver has finally seen the light as this Silver quote shows.

“Betting markets, weighing all of this information, see the Republican race thusly: Trump at about 50 percent to win the nomination, Rubio at 40 percent, and the rest of the field at 10 percent. I might quibble here and there, but that seems like basically a sound assessment. Now, let’s get back to arguing on Twitter.”

I can quibble too. Rubio at 40%! Why?

The only reason I can come up with is a brokered convention.

Product of Failed System

Whether or not you like or hate trump (or Bernie Sanders), both are the Product of Failed System.

Donald Trump’s shocking transformation from reality-show host to Republican presidential front-runner is not some random and bizarre twist of fate. It grows from the failure of our political system to adapt to demographic change, economic disruption and a reorganizing world.

Trump’s victory Saturday in the South Carolina primary appears to have cleared away the cobwebs of denial.

Rubio promises an aggressively interventionist foreign policy of the kind that gave us more than a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Cruz pledges to double down on failed economic policies — deregulation, tax cuts, tight money — and turn back the clock on social changes such as same-sex marriage. Neither offers much that sounds new or promising.

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