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Non-Farm Friday – Is America Working? **Trade Review**

SPY  5  MINUTEWe're waiting on the Non-Farm Payroll Report

Yesterday, we got the happy talk we expected from Minneapolis Fed Governor Kaplan and, he did such a good job goosing the markets at 11:30 yesterday, that he's speaking again today at 10:45.  Of course he'll say the same thing but will the markets react the same way?  That depends on the jobs report and how FAKE this low-volume rally we've been having really is.  

As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, volume yesterday was a pathetic 94.8M and the spikes of volume on the way down were most of the up day's trading.  On the whole, we opened the year on Jan 4th at 200.49 and dropped to a low of 181.09 (down 9.6%) intraday on Feb 11th and now, March 4th, we're back to 199.78 which is just over a 10% gain from the low (199.19).  

According to our 5% Rule™, after a 10% run we expect a 2% pullback as we retest the highs and a bit of consolidation.  Today's NFP report will either pop us over that top or, more likely, give us that 2% drop test we've been looking for.  We shorted the Russell yesterday at 1,065 and after a very small drop, that trade failed but then, in our Live Member Chat Room, we shorted it again at 1,070 an hour later (10:44) and the 2nd time was a charm as it dropped back to 1,066 and we took a $350 profit off the table at 1,066.50 an hour later.  

This morning, ahead of the NFP report, it's a bit too dangerous to bet the Futures so we're just waiting to see what happens for now.  We headed downhill after last month's NFP report but, as I mentioned the following Thursday (2/11), a lot of that has to do with scaring people into buying bonds each month – so people won't notice that no one actually wants to buy notes that pay 2% interest, let alone 0%!

Nonetheless, in our Live Trading Webinar that week, we called a long on Nikkei (/NKD) futures at 15,700 and this morning they hit 17,050 for a gain of 1,350 or $6,750 per contract.  For the Futures impaired, our options trade idea was:

We haven't done much gambling in the STP lately so let's see if we can turn $2,200 into $3,300 bucks real fast buy buying 40 EWJ March $10 calls for 0.55.

EWJ finished yesterday at $11.40 and should be $11.50 this morning and those $10 calls will be $1.55 for a $1 per option gain at $6,200 (+$4,000 on 40 contracts) – not bad for 3 week's "work".  In that same post, we also mentioned staying long on oil at $30 with a $35 target by July but we hit $35 yesterday already for a $5,000 per contract gain there as well.   This is just the stuff we give away for free folks – you're welcome!  I even reiterated that call when CNBC interviewed me on Wednesday that week.

On Wednesday, Feb 17th, we reviewed our SDS hedge (still on track despite the rally) and we discussed our Dec 2nd's Institutional Newsletter's trade idea on WYNN, where we sold the 2018 $45 puts for $8.50 as they were still playable at $7.60 (+10%) but now they are $5.15, up another 32% in three weeks and well on track for our full 100% gain (isn't this stuff easy?).  The next day (18th), as we got more confident in the rally, we called for a very aggressive bullish trade (TNA).   

Buy 10 TNA March $41 calls for $3 ($3,000)

Sell 10 TNA March $44 calls for $1 ($1,000)

Sell 1 BA 2018 $80 put for $7 ($700)

TNA is a 3x ultra-long on the Russell and it's blasted up to $52.76 as of yesterday's close and already the bullish spread is at $2.25 ($2,250) while the short puts have dropped to $5.50 ($550) so net $1,700 is up $400 already (30% on cash) on a 10% gain in the Russell but there's no reason to think we won't collect the full $1,700 (130% back on cash outlay) if we're patient.  

The next morning (Friday, Feb 19th) we called for long Russell Futures (/TF) at 1,000 and with the Russell now at 1,075, that's up $7,500 per contract but, of course, we flipped short yesterday with the contracts only up $6,000.  As it was a weekend we talked about adding more hedges but nothing specific in the morning post but we did also call a long on oil again at $32.50 but those contracts are only up $2,500 at our $35 goal (sorry).  

Monday, Feb 22nd, I was doing a presentation at the NY Trader's Expo and I gave our morning readers an advanced look at our PowerPoint presentation which concluded that FCX was bottoming at $6.92 and our trade idea using an options spread was:

  • Sell 10 FCX 2018 $5 puts for $2.16 ($2,160) 
  • Buy 20 FCX Jan $5 calls for $3.15 ($6,300) 
  • Sell 20 FCX Jan $10 calls for $1.25 ($2,500)

FCX has already blasted up to $9.11 as of yesterday's close and should be over $9.50 this morning on news they are spinning out a copper mine, so that train has left the station (but you can subscribe here and never miss these trade ideas again).  The aggressive spread is well on track to pay off the full $10,000, which will be an $8,360 profit on the $1,640 cash committed (509%).  That one will take all year to finish, though, at the moment, it's only up to $3,700 or a 125% return on cash in 2 weeks.  

This is a HUGE point that we teach our Members at Philstockworld:  You do not have to take aggressive positions to make aggressive returns.  Our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" strategy video has been viewed 450,000 times on YouTube and we have taught this system to thousands of traders and again, THESE ARE JUST THE FREE TRADE IDEAS from our recent morning posts.  

In that same post, we also went with a short put sale on Fitbit (FIT) into earnings, selling the May $13 puts for $2.  Earnings were a disappointment and the stock fell below $13 to $12.47 as of yesterday's close but, because we were BEING THE HOUSE and selling earnings premium, the short puts are only $2.20 now – down 10% for our first loss of the month but, of course, if FIT did hold $12.50 into May, the puts would only be worth 0.50 for a $1.50 win so we're down but not out by any means (and yes, I still like that trade)!  

That Tuesday (23rd) I bitched about debt in the morning post and no free trade ideas and Wednesday (24th), I reiterated my long calls on Russell (/TF) and Nikkei (/NKD) futures, so we won't count them twice but we will count S&P (/ES) Futures at 1,900, as they were a new call and now up $4,500 per contract at 1,990.  I also noted we still liked the SDS and SQQQ hedges as well and it's a good rule of thumb, in an extended rally, to start putting 25-30% of your daily unrealized gains into aggressive downside hedges to lock in your balance.  

Thursday (25th) it was all about natural gas and we talked about our Trade of the Year on UNG, which is NOT off to a good start and down $4,215 (46% on cash) in our Options Opportunity Portfolio but we're more likely to add to the position than bail on it (see post for our logic).  We also liked LNG, the company that is physically exporting the natural gas, and they've already popped from $30 to $37.05 for a very nice 23% gain in two weeks and, of course, we had an option trade but I didn't post it for the public (sorry).  I also mentioned our bullish take on Ford (F), which was $12.08 that morning and is already $13.54 (up 12% in two weeks).

Another trade idea that day was our Apple (AAPL) Trade of the Year from 2015, which was still in progress and up only $1,500 ($9,500) that morning.  That trade was:

  • Buy 20 AAPL Jan 2017 $90/120 bull call spreads for $13.50 ($27,000) 
  • Sell 20 AAPL Jan 2017 $85 puts for $9.50 ($19,000)

AAPL went on a tear since then and is back on track and now the bull call spread is $12.80 but the $85 puts are just $6.50 for net $6.30 and $12,600 on the spread, up $3,100 (32%) in two weeks – another example of how powerful our "Be the House" strategy can be, even in the short-term.

Obviously, with all these gains, we wanted to lock in our profits so, on Friday, Feb 26th, we added a short hedge using the ultra-short Russell ETF (TZA) but we offset it by selling puts on FCX, which we were still in love with.  That hedge was:

  • Buy 10 TZA April $52 calls for $7 ($7,000) 
  • Sell 10 TZA April $57 calls for $5.50 ($5,500) 
  • Sell 5 FCX 2018 $5 puts for $2.10 ($1,050)

TZA has fallen to $48.79 and the April $52 calls are now $3.29 ($3,290) while the short $57 calls are $1.89 ($1,890) but, fortunately, the short FCX puts are $1.55 ($775) so the net on the trade is $625, amazingly still UP $175 (38%) from our $450 cash outlay – even though TZA went completely the wrong way.  How does that happen – by Being the House – NOT the Gambler!  

8:30 Update:  OK, enough of that nonsense, the Non-Farm Payroll Report is out!  In our Live Member Chat room right at 8:33, my comment to our Members was:

I think we need (and I know I said this) just under 200 to be in Goldilocks mode.  Too far over will be too strong and puts the Fed on the table, too low will show weakness that scares people.

Oops, here it is – blowout with 242,000 jobs AND +30,000 revised to last month.  It's too hot with a Fed meeting coming up but hourly earnings down 0.1% so maybe not so bad.  

Labor Force Participation down yet again so maybe the gains are BS but, on the whole – I don't see this as being enough to pop 2,000 so I like /ES short at the lone watching 17,000 on /YM, 4,350 on /NQ and 1,080 on /TF and 17,200 on /NKD.  If ANY of them are over their lines – I wouldn't short but I would short /ES for sure below 2,000 with tight stops.

Sure enough, the indexes are already heading south, so a bit late for the free readers but, hopefully, you have that excellent TZA hedge to protect you!  Still, I do like this number, even if the market does not, as it indicates a robust recovery and maybe the Fed will put the brakes on but we can afford it so they should and maybe Corporate margins will contract a bit (about time) but it's all worth it if we finally get a rise in household income that can bring the consumers back to the table.

Don't forget Kaplan gets to spin this back at 10:45 so don't get too attached to these short plays – it's just nice to lock in some quick profits (about $500 per contract at the moment) to pay for some weekend fun and trust in the TZA and SDS hedges to be our main protection.  This might even help bring back our natural gas contracts (/NG), which are trading at $1.62 this morning.  

Have a great weekend,

- Phil

 


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  1. Here they are again at CNBC – talking about the Labor Dept manipulating numbers to influence the election! At least, if this administration lies to manipulate the process, 3000 people won't die!

    And Rick Santelli now saying that jobs numbers don't matter, it's productivity that's important. Unless of course we have a bad job number in which case it will be important. Why don't these guys apply at Fox?


  2. Good morning! 

    From previous post (in case you missed it):

    I think we need (and I know I said this) just under 200 to be in Goldilocks mode.  Too far over will be too strong and puts the Fed on the table, too low will show weakness that scares people.

    Oops, here it is – blowout with 242,000 jobs AND +30,000 revised to last month.  It's too hot with a Fed meeting coming up but hourly earnings down 0.1% so maybe not so bad.  

    Labor Force Participation down yet again so maybe the gains are BS but, on the whole – I don't see this as being enough to pop 2,000 so I like /ES short at the lone watching 17,000 on /YM, 4,350 on /NQ and 1,080 on /TF and 17,200 on /NKD.  If ANY of them are over their lines – I wouldn't short but I would short /ES for sure below 2,000 with tight stops.


  3. BTW Phil, Labor Participation went up, not down…

    A separate unemployment gauge that includes those not actively looking for a job or at work part-time for economic reasons fell to 9.7 percent, the lowest reading since May 2008. A declining labor force participation rate had played a big role in the decline of the headline jobless number, but the gauge rose in February to 62.9 percent, its highest level since January 2015.


  4. Good Morning!



  5. Timeline: The March to a Billion Users [Chart]


  6. BTW, that GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

    And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now.


  7. Phil can you come up with an explanation of why the dollar popped .50 on the release of the report and then over the next half hour dropped a full $1? Why is there so much confusion over this report? Was there something here that initially confirmed a rate hike and then after review they decided no hike?


  8. And finally, when is that "tax cut is the solution" mantra going to finally die? Look at what happened in Louisiana with Jindal:

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/how-bobby-jindal-wrecked-louisiana/

    They are now talking about more cuts in colleges, closing hospitals and hospices. People will die…  The same thing is happening in Kansas where they will have to close schools in May because they are running out of money. For some reasons, when you cut taxes, you have lower revenues. But still, we will keep on hearing that tax cuts are the way to go in November. Damn the facts!


  9. Dollar/Craigs – Because the Dollar is traded by idiots who react like idiots and then the professionals step in and it goes back to where it was.  More jobs means more Dollars needed to pay people so Dollar positive but then more jobs can mean Fed tightening, also Dollar positive but the Dollar already rallied on that plus expectations of BOJ easing that Abe and Koroda said are not forthcoming so now Dollar strength rests on the ECB meeting next week and, if they disappoint, the Dollar won't hold 98+.  97.50 is right for now but back to 95 is the ECB doesn't ease further.  

     

      


  10. I can't stand Hillary, but I do like her approach of taxing the rich.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/clinton-tax-hikes-rich-raise-192500691.html


  11. Sold more CNX. 


  12. Better than the GOP plans Albo:

    On the Republican side, Trump, Cruz and Rubio have all proposed major tax reforms to spur economic growth, but all at enormous potential costs to the Treasury. Trump’s plan, for example, would drain the federal coffers of $9.5 trillion over the first decade and another $15 trillion over the second ten years, according to a separate Tax Policy Center study.

    Cruz’s revolutionary idea to switch from the current federal tax code to a simple, European-style “flat tax” would add $8 trillion to the deficit over the coming decade, according to a new study by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. And Rubio’s tax cuts and simplification plan would reduce federal revenues by $6.8 trillion over a decade, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

    It goes to what I was posting above regarding Louisiana. These tax cuts never pay for themselves!


  13. Still green, just not as green as we were in the Futures.  Next crosses to watch are 16,950, 1,990, 4,320 and 1,070 with /NKD 17,000 – can get back in and short the laggard there.  

    Oil determined to hold $34.75 into the weekend.  /RB $1.31 off $1.25 yesterday and we forgot to play it!  /NG $1.64 on front-month and $1.76 on /NGK6 – still way low.  Gold $1,272.50, Silver $15.50.

    CNBC/StJ – Generally I keep my brain turned off when watching it.  Sometimes it's so annoying I have to shut the sound off (and listen to Bloomberg, which is always on in the living room, where I relax).  Santelli and Kudlow are almost instant mutes these days as are some of their guests like Jack Welch or Ken Langone.

    Labor/StJ – That's what I said, isn't it?  

    Big Chart – Lookin' good (for now).  It's really no worry if we consolidate back to the 50 dmas, as long as they hold.  

    Debate/StJ – I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other – it was the only low they hadn't sunk to.  Rubio and Trump were actually trading penis comments!  Meanwhile, I almost fell off my chair when he talked about other people using "shameful" language.  Bill Maher nailed it this weekend.  

    Tax cuts/StJ – You are working under the supposition that the party wants to do something to help the economy.  They don't give a crap about the economy – it's just a word they kick around like a football.  They care about keeping what they have and not sharing or having any of it taxed away.  If you told these guys that each person they kill could save them 1% on their taxes, most of them would be reaching for their guns without hesitation.  This whole Republican/Democrat thing is just to distract people from the real two parties in this country – the 1% and the 99% but, since it's a "Democracy", they have to find other ways to divide the people that don't cause them to lose power.  

    Hillary/Albo – What's $1.1Tn in 10 years?  Same as what's drowning 1,000 lawyers in the ocean – a good start, but not much more.  


  14. Phil, What do you think of AVGO now? Earning came in great and it popped 6.50% today.  I had sold some Arpil puts on it yesterday since S&P had forcasted above earnings estimates.  :  )  !


  15. Labor / Phil – You said down, but actually participation went up. So the numbers are bit more meaningful as people might be coming back to work. On the other hand, hourly wages down 0.1% so still some slack there but it keeps the Fed away for now I would guess.

    And true about tax cuts – I try not to get too cynical but you pull me back in…


  16. ABX is golden !


  17. Dang……I hate it when i get assigned on a bull call spread….RIG 7/8  bull call….They assigned the short 8's but only half of them….GRRRR  Where is Jabo when ya need him :)


  18. Here the big future player before opening played /ES long and got out before opening with a great 50$ this is now the second time I did this Phil do you think I have potential????(((((


  19. Yodi, I am impressed.  After my hairy experience some years ago in futures (I made a big return but couldn't sleep at night(s).  I am reluctant to even start back again.  Did you create an operating manual on Phil's "how to"?  Newt  


  20. willsons— can't you just exercise your 7s and be flat?


  21. Jabo….Yep    I was just being lazy


  22. Shorted some X at $13.43.


  23. ABX, RIG, CLF… did Phil give them the right flea collars???

    http://puppytoob.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2014/12/akita-540×418.jpg


  24. Phil,

    ABX, RIG, CLF, FCX … has the train left for all of these. looking at money moving into commodities can we take benefit from it at this time with some option set ups for the next leg up.

    regards


  25. AVGO/Newt – I still like them but I'd still rather wait for them to get cheaper.  Might never happen.  

    Labor/StJ – My bad, thanks.

    ABX/Albo – Gold is golden at the moment.  

    RIG/Willsons – Well, saved you a bit of premium.  

    LOL Yodi – that's right, the young man shows great promise!  wink

    Don't be down on my dogs Jabob!  angry

    Commodities/Pat – Interesting as I'm about to be interviewed on that subject.  Next week remind me to take a good look at who's still a bargain. 


  26. newthugger no just took the dart board!!!!((((


  27. Just look how things going /ES down 6PTS now up 2.5 pts even the casino can do better than this market


  28. Opt & Pstas – Are you guys still in TSLA puts ?


  29. I am- for now. 


  30. Thanks.  I caught a down draft the day that Citron announced they were short.  But, unfortunately, added back too soon. 


  31. OOPs !  Posted on wrong site.  DUH !


  32. rig—wow!


  33. Phil – are you shorting oil here?


  34. jabo/RIG

    how about WOW RIG!!

    :-)


  35. CMG/Phil

    I still have the Mar 530/570 BCS. Should I continue to hold it or get out with the movement today?


  36. go oil!!!!!


  37. Wow, things are all over the place!  

    That spottiness on the Nikkei indicates violent, low-volume moves.  

    Oh, silly me, it was Kaplan again – right on schedule.

    Can't play this mess – too crazy!  

    I'm being interviewed in NYC Monday afternoon re. our UNG trade.  It's for Voice of America, who are very big overseas so I'll be talking about the logic of exporting and the price differentials.  I just looked up Europe and they are down to $4.90 from $9 at the start of the year.  Asia is still at $8.25 but that's down from $15.50 so huge changes in global prices.  HOWEVER, we are down from $2.50 to $1.65 but we're the ones that are exporting and causing global prices to drop – that does not make sense.  Call Cochran!  

    RIG/Jabob – Nice!  Those damned funnymentals do matter eventually…

    Submitted on 2015/02/26 at 12:25 am

    RIG/Palotay – Took a huge impairment charge but cash-flow is solid and EPS for the QUARTER is 0.95 per $16 share before the impairment and a loss (non-cash) of $2.04 vs 0.64 profit last year.  

    Revenue of $2.24Bn is down 1.3% since last year and they project no major change in revenue for 2015:

    Don't forget, it's a new CEO so he's writing off everything so the turnaround can be amazing. 

    Output/Randers – Well more output in June would be terrible timing. 

    RIG/Steve – Yes but hard to say how RIG will be affected by next earnings.  If oil isn't back to $60 by July, this trade could be in real trouble.  On selling, no, you have 2,000 shares, you sell 10 contracts Jan 2017 for $2 and then, in Jan 2016, if the 2017s are $1 or less, you sell 10 2018s for $2 and put a stop on the 2017s at $1 and, hopefully, over the next 12 months, the 2017s expire worthless and the 2018s drop to $1 and then you sell 10 2019s for $2 and put a stop on the 2018s.  You are only 1/2 covered on the first sale, after which you use stops to keep your upside flexible.  You do realize you are selling, in the case of CLF, a 2017 $5 call for $1.75, which is 35% of the stocks price.  That means, if you sell those calls 3 times, you have a zero cost basis in the stock. 

     

    RIG/Steve – You are right to be "squeamish" as commodities are collapsing and may, in fact, be leading to an overall market collapse so I hope you have good hedges to protect all those material stocks.  If you want to talk rolls, I need specifics on those positions and if you are looking to establish new ones, the rolls we just made for the LTP are a good place to start.  I've lost faith in BTU but I like all the rest, which in no way means they won't get cheaper still – just that I like them at these prices for a LONG-TERM investment.  

    Also, I wouldn't get ABX, FCX, HMY, SLW and NEW – it's not very diversified as they are all in the same gold sector (FCX about 10% gold).  You may as well just buy GLD if that's your bet (or ABX, which I think is the most likely to survive).  

    All those bets are bets on Global Infrastructure spending, rising inflation and expanding GDP – none of which we're seeing at the moment but, over the next decade – probably.  

    It's always darkest before it gets lighter…

     

     

    Submitted on 2015/06/10 at 2:05 pm

    RIG/Scott – I like our LTP position but we doubled down on the puts when RIG hit $13.  Now it's $19 and you're late to the party but I still like the 2017 $18 calls ($4.60) and the short $15 puts ($3.70) for net 0.90 and, after RIG gets closer to $25, then we will find a suitable cover.

    Submitted on 2015/07/23 at 11:44 am

    RIG/BDC – There's no bottom if these markets start failing.  Just make sure you have cash to begin buying when the dust clears.  

    Submitted on 2015/08/21 at 8:05 am

    RIG/LTP, Craigs – RIG is at $13.25 and you have the same spread we have in the LTP and it's essentially the same story as the 2017 $13s are still $3.50 and we'll roll them to a lower 2018 spread and leave the short $20s to twist in the wind (with stops, of course).   With RIG at $13, the odds of them suddenly getting bought for over $20 is pretty slim so we can be comfortable with the set-up (and, in AAPL's case above – they're NOT getting bought since $700Bn is the size of Switzerland's GDP, the 20th largest in the World).  

    Unlike our LTP, you already sold RIG puts but $15 is a good target and the $5.75 doesn't matter unless you were lying to yourself when you promised to buy RIG for net $11.85.  Of course, when 2018 comes out, you can roll it lower.  The Jan $18 puts are $5.85 and you have the 2017 $15 puts at the same price so probably you can do an even(ish) roll to the 2017 $12 puts – which is why the only thing we really fear is bankruptcy in these kinds of plays – as it ends our rolling process.  

     

    RIG/QC – In the LTP, We still have a 2017 13/20 bull call spread that we paid $2.25 for and we sold 2017 $27 puts for $8 and $15 puts for $4.95.  Now that 2018s are out and we're past earnings, I'm going to be inclined to roll the puts to a combined 2018 $17 short puts ($6.60 at the moment) but we'll see where we are in two weeks when it's time to make changes.  

    Submitted on 2015/12/10 at 3:48 pm

    RIG/Craigs – Yep, it will have to be considered but it's not like we'll stop next year and RIG is priced like we will.  Let's say oil is dead in 20 years – that means 5% a year decline.  RIG is down 65%, as is a lot of the sector.  While they may be right looking out 5-10 years, in between they probably aren't as bad as feared.  Still, all these companies slashing CapEx makes me think we may need to cut it loose. 

    Submitted on 2016/01/21 at 2:14 pm

    RIG/Palotay – Amazing how far it's fallen.  Now $3.4Bn for the whole company with $9Bn in revenues running at $1.2Bn in profit for the last two Qs. 

    Submitted on 2016/02/04 at 10:01 am

    RIG/QC – In the LTP, we still have the Jan $13/20 bull call spread with short $15 puts (another one we rolled and doubled down on).  2018 is out but I'm not sure we'll have to wait that long to hit $15 again so we haven't rolled yet..  

    It's funny to look back on these long-term trades!  

    Oil/Bulls – They punched over resistance so silly to short them.  And it's Friday so another reason not to short them.

    Dollar down about half a point on the day – that helps. 

    CMG/Ravis – That's a tricky one!  On the one hand, I think they are only being slowed by the 2.5% Rule, on the way to a bigger comeback but, on the other hand, March is dangerously close.  

    We have that CMG March $530/570 spread in the STP (from 12/21) and it was net $15 and now we can sell the $530s for $22 after the spread was near worthless at one point.  The $570s are $5.40 so small net profit if closed and we already bought the Jan $450/560 bull call spread as a DD when CMG went the wrong way on us so, officially, I think it's smart for us to take $22 and run on the $530s but we can leave the short $570s as they are well-covered by the bull spread and hopefully they expire worthless.   

    Raviis – If you don't have the long spread, it's a pretty dangerous play.  The $570s have a 0.23 delta so let's say CMG pops $20 on Monday – that's going to cost you $5 with CMG at $557 and dangerously close to getting in the money so that's the risk if it runs away.  Since we only paid $25 for the $110 Jan spread – I don't mind risking $5 ($5,000) as that would mean our $110,000 play is almost all in the money and needs protecting anyway.  

    Oil/Jabob – You am a genius – great call!  


  38. StJL – "talking about the Labor Dept manipulating numbers to influence the election! At least, if this administration lies to manipulate the process, 3000 people won't die!"

    Sad to say my friend, under this administration, there are about 45,000, and since 1998 about 500,000 Lost Americans, that might argue with that. Out.


  39. LABU:   I filled the short postions but not the long $5 calls.   Offer more at this point or wait for the price to erode some?


  40. Naybob /Lost Americans – now happening to lower-middle class whites, so maybe found soon.

    Or maybe not.

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/why-is-the-death-rate-rising-among-middle-aged-white-americans


  41. Naybob

    Thanks for the flow edumacation. Boy you've got some depressing stuff on your blog. Hang in there.


  42. SQQQ / OOP – Has Mar 23/28 BCS, perhaps it's time to roll this out?


  43. CHK  – Finally back to profitable on CHK after averaging down and rolling.  Not my favorite way to trade, but sometimes it works out.  Unreal !    Don't people realize that they are primarily in nat gas ?   Doesn't seem to matter as almost all energy names moving up.

    Guess that X is getting additional play because of their meaningful position in oil and gas tubing. 

    Short squeeze in energy and material names is unbelievable.


  44. StJL – nothing personal, it was the 3K "deaths" comment that sparked me, been sitting on that powder keg for awhile, thanks for the inspiration.


  45. No problem Naybob… I was limiting my scope!


  46. Rexx – Lost Americans – go to the link in the missive and download Case and Deatons study.  A real eye opener that makes one want to projectile vomit whenever they hear or read the MSM narrative of aging and secular stagnation.  Anyone who buys into that Orwellian tripe needs to commit themselves to an asylum

    What that New Yorker piece linked neglects – If it was an increase in that demographic or the secular aging and stagnation of MSM narrative then how does one explain this? All-cause mortality rates for white non-Hispanics aged 65–74 continued to fall at 2% per year from 1999 to 2013; there were similar declines in all other racial and ethnic groups aged 65–74. The mortality decline for white non-Hispanics aged 55–59 (the next bracket up from 45-54) also slowed, declining only 0.5% per year over this period. 

    Even Gelman who dissented wrote: “I agree with Case and Deaton on the main point,” he notes. And he goes on: “the change compared to other countries and groups is huge.”  Douthat also suggests, "the members of this group may have lost their “sense of meaning and purpose,” making them more apt to succumb to drug addiction, alcoholism, and other diseases."  And there you have it. Out.


  47. CMG /Phil – Sorry Phil, may be my question was not clear.

    I have 1 Mar 530/570 Bull Call, that i paid 15.87. It is at 16.45 today.

    So take a wash and run or wait in the hope of making 2500 USD if CMG is at 570 by Mar exp, risk is I could lose the 1587 if it turns below 530.  Am I missing something?



  48. LABU/Tangled – Well you don't want to be in the exact opposite position of what you intended but they are slow fills.  The $5s are $3.80/4.20 and they've been going for $3.35-$4.20 since I called it yesterday but mostly only over $4 when impatient people overpaid right when I made the call.  I don't know what you filled the shorts for ($2.20 was goal for the Sept $9s) but I'm sure you can get the $5s for $4 right away and $3.90 if you put in an offer is very likely.   $3.70 might not come back if we're rallying.  

    TLT coming down fast again:

    SQQQ/Cordoor – Monday but I'd rather hold on until then – just in case.  Don't forget, those were just to protect the short SQQQs that we just bought back with a huge win.  

    CHK/Albo – What an amazing 3 days.  What other CEOs can we kill?  cheeky

    Oil tapped $36 before calming down, now $35.68.

    Mortality/Naybob – I work with a lot of charities and this is the trend I see with middle and lower middle-class people:  Even when they do have health care, they avoid using it because deductibles are creeping up and co-pays on pills can run them $100+ month so they just don't take their medicine.  20 years ago, virtually all white middle class people had 100% health care that was almost completely free of additional costs.  

    It's the marginal cost creep that's impacting the white middle class as their coverage ratio had nowhere to go but up while non-whites, especially on the lower end of the scale, have gone the other way since now people with several part-time jobs are able to access health care they didn't have before.

    Another huge factor is stress.   This chart says it all:

    What a nightmare approaching 50 with not even $100,000 saved for retirement.  Social Security is a max of about $2,500 but most people get closer to the $1,200 average and Medicare doesn't start until 65.  On the whole, it's cheaper to die than to try to keep going at a certain point!  

    CMG/Raviis – I doubt it would go up in that time-frame.  You'd be better off using the cash to make a longer spread, like the Jan $520 ($78)/560 ($58) bull call spread at $20 that makes $20 more at $560 so you can actually end up with $40 back on $20 vs $14 back on $16 if all goes well.

    Labor Force/StJ – That's why COST had to boost wages too.  Getting hard to keep good people.  


  49. <b>Just stunning.</b><p>German newspaper Der Spiegel reported yesterday that the <b>Bavarian Banking Association has recommended that its member banks start</b> …


  50. VC firm has a message for its limited partners. And founders.<p>Last summer, First Round Capital took the highly unusual step of publishing its quarterly letter to limited partners. At issue was the tech bubble, and if it would soon burst. It didn’t take a frmal position, but did argue that too few VC …


  51. The U.S. stock market’s rally since early February has not boosted bullishness among market timers, writes Mark Hulbert.<p>Market timing community is bearish — and that’s a good sign<p>CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Even though the stock market’s rally has stalled over the last couple of trading …


  52. So Republicans are going to nominate a candidate who talks complete nonsense on domestic policy; who believes that foreign policy can be conducted via bullying and belligerence; who cynically exploits racial and ethnic hatred for political gain.<p>But that was always going to happen, however the …


  53. Before his presentation to the University of Texas, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio gave a far-ranging interview to Bloomberg’s Erik Shatzker which we will …


  54. One week ago, we reported that even as traders were focusing on the daily headline barrage out of OPEC members discussing whether or not they would …


  55. Hongkongers’ sensitivity about their language has been pricked again by a mooted plan to teach simplified Chinese in schools.<p>At the start of last month, it emerged that the Education Bureau’s latest consultation document said local pupils should learn to read simplified characters.<p>Traditional …


  56. After the ECB’s December meeting, president Mario Draghi stepped up to speak to the press having just cut the bank’s deposit rate by just 0.1%, disappointing the markets.<p>At that point, things in Europe weren’t looking too bad. As a note from Credit Suisse analysts led by Neville Hill released on …


  57. RIG up nicely.  SDRL up 75% today !


  58. Hope some of you guys still have SDRL.  I don't.


  59. Simple.<p>Butter.<p>Sprayed.<p>Thanks to recent studies, butter is making its way back into peoples lives. In fact: Butter consumption in the U.S. has hit a …


  60. BlackRock’s Gold ETF (IAU) has seen fund inflows every day in 2016 (no outflows at all) and with the stock trading above its NAV for most of the …


  61. The iPhone at the center of the ongoing encryption dispute between Apple and the FBI may contain a “dormant cyber pathogen”, according to the San Bernardino county District Attorney.<p>The curious claim appears in an amicus brief filed by Michael Ramos with a California court on Thursday. In the …


  62. The headline jobs number was certainly good, beating expectations and well higher than last month’s disappointing (and upward revised) 182K print. …


  63. Phil – "It's cheaper to die than to try to keep going at a certain point!"  No kidding, and you wind up like this, when you know the truth.

    Enfilade – Edumacation/depressing – Your welcome.  We calls em like we sees em. Not a pessimist, not an optimist, just a realist. Filters are used to limit exposure of the weak (body, mind, spirit) . Swimming in the Hudson, bathing in the Ganges or having a dip in the Nile, with all that flotsam, jetsam, ligan, derelict and shit, tends to make one immune. Smiley With Horns. Out.


  64. "dormant cyber pathogen" – OMFG. That DA is a complete and utter tool.


  65. Donald Trump did not amass a majority of delegates on Super Tuesday. But he could soon.<p>If the people in the rest of the nation vote as the Super Tuesday results suggest they would, Mr. Trump would easily amass a majority of delegates and avoid the contested convention that his opponents hope to …


  66. <i>The remaining Republican presidential candidates took the stage Thursday night following a speech by former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney that threw the election into greater disarray. Romney called on the field to stay in the race until the convention in order to stop Donald Trump,</i> …


  67. There are a lot of banks out there.<p>Some are better, some are worse. Some advertise with talking babies. More and more of them are developing strong online services — and there are external apps like Mint that can help you manage your money. But mostly, banking is still a terrible experience …


  68. The U.S. economy is on track to grow 2.2 percent in the first quarter following government reports on jobs and international trade, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday.<p>That pace is faster than the regional Fed’s prior estimate of 1.9 percent growth on Tuesday, the …


  69. By Camillus Eboh<p>(Reuters) – Nigeria may reduce the oil benchmark of $38 per barrel outlined in its 2016 budget if global crude prices continue to fall, the budget and planning minister said on Thursday.<p>The drop in the oil price to around $30 a barrel, from over $100 in 2014, has prompted the worst …


  70. It packs 16 terabytes in a 2.5-inch container.<p>Samsung has started shipping the 16TB (well, okay, 15.36TB) SSD it showed off at the Flash Memory Summit in California last year. The company says the positively tiny, 2.5-inch drive has the largest capacity among all the SSDs in the world. It still …


  71. Samsung SSD – that is truly incredible.


  72. pstas, what TSLA puts are you in?  do you plan to roll? looks like TSLA wants to go to 220


  73. Labor / Phil – And not to beat a dead horse, but all these years that labor participation went down, that's all the CNBC crew would talk about. Now it's going up and not a peep… Jobs are going up as well so they concentrate on productivity because it's not doing as well! It's never good news for that crew – at least as long as there is Dem in the White House. Because 150K jobs with W. was a great month at CNBC… Idiots!


  74. Samsung SSD – Wow, that's about 5,000 ripped Blu-Ray movies right there! And about 5M songs! 


  75. SDRL - And that is why we stick with these stocks if we have conviction.  When you have major sell-offs, they can come back very violently and you don't get a chance to get in after the fact.  

    As I often say in the Webinars – you have to trade things that you understand so you KNOW what the VALUE of a stock is – regardless of what the PRICE is at any given moment.  With SRDL, we just adjusted to the 0.50 calls on 2/18 from the original $5/10 bull call spread.  Now those 0.50s are $4.25 in the money and we have 50 of them!  

    Speaking of ones we have conviction on – BHI back to $47!  

    Truth/Naybob – I think the truth is that we've got no more than 10 years before there's a radical (and expensive) restructuring of the safety net.  The boomers are only just starting to retire and they have 20 years of voting to go and their kids (us) don't want our parents moving back home because they can't afford their own places so we will VOTE for more SS benefits.  Probably it begins in this election but, if not, then a huge snapback after 4 more years of retirees strain the system.

    Cyber Pathogen/Scott – He actually filed that claim with the court!  I have to imagine one of his staffers was goofing on him with that one and he fell for it.  Anyway, I smell movie plot or at least a great band name: "Dormant Cyber Pathogen"!

    This is a great example of how you really can't have flexibility on these issues because there's always some jackass in government that will make up whatever crap they feel like to bend the law their way.  That's why the ACLU is forced to defend freedom of speech for Nazis – you can't make exceptions or the door gets thrown wide open.  

    Samsung/Scott – That does blow my mind.  When I was peddling computers in the 80s, my first big server sale was to a doctor and we had to special order a 325Mb drive for $25,000.  At the time, we were all freaking out about that technological marvel that could hold 300 floppies (what's a floppy?) worth of information on it and – even better, deliver it in under 300Ms.  Now this thing is 50,000 times more dense and faster and probably not even $1,000.  Specs are here.

    The 2.5-in SSD is based on a 12Gbps Serial Attached SCSI (SAS) interface for use in enterprise storage systems. The PM1633a has blazing fast performance, with random read and write speeds of up to 200,000 and 32,000 I/Os per second (IOPS), respectively. It delivers sequential read and write speeds of up to 1200MBps, the company said. A typical SATA SSD can peak at about 550MBps.

    BiCS 3D NAND Toshiba

    CNBC/StJ – True, the "loyal opposition" takes their job very seriously.  


  76. StJ / Gov manipulation – we need more GOP voices in here (and I'm relaly not one) so I'll advocate the other side here that Gov't almost always tends to err on the side of self-preservation, regardless of the "truth". Market forces always allocate scarce resources more efficiently than the gov't does.

    Albo – CNX – I'm not swing trading this one (bought low as a long term retirement hold), but this sector is overheating. I may wait for the pullback and deploy another tranche of incoming cash, if people want to follow an accumulation pathology. I'll probably do this over the next few quarters and have a nice position that sits at a good, but averaged, overall entry. I'll sell it in 20 years.

    Congrats to everyone that held to their guns of deploying fresh powder on issues like RIG, SDRL, CNX, CLF, CHK etc etc. All of Jan/Feb has now been erased. Granted, these guys have been going down for 18 months just to hit last December's lows, so we were correct in assuming the Jan/Feb downturn was very seriously oversold territory, how much of the year-and-a-half loss do they make back from here?

    SDRL hit 6.25 while I've been sitting here! Wow! It's like the world collectively realizes in one instance that the company owns a bunch of half billion dollar offshore rigs that operate for 30-plus years, and where oil prices change minute to minute.

    Phil/NG – do you know when the March contracts roll over? I think UNG might be pinned until they roll into the Aprils and we might see some big green candles (a.k.a. "like everybody else) immediately after the roll and 100%-sure-to-coming short squeeze.


  77. Pretty amazing how all these markets and equities are going up, up, up. All that free money from Japan, China, EU?


  78. As of Feb 28 it looks like UNG owns the Aprils. I'm not sure when they roll to May and where the max pain is for shorts… but with all of the right information you might be able to make a good educated guess on the UNG low and pending spike up.


  79. SDRL hit 7.49!


  80. Samsung SSD / Phil – I read that it was $5,000… But cheap relatively speaking.


  81. The Russell is basically up 15% in less than a month! It's behaving like a 3x ETF. Did we see the lows for year already? Did the all clear siren go off? Creeping up on the 200 DMA and our 10% lines with 2 of the indices.


  82. /CL – I keep expecting oil to pop over 36, but it just can't seem to get there as of 2:09 PM. Looks like it is retreating now ,so I guess we will have to wait for another fake rally to move it up that high again. Even when I am not trading I can't take my eyes off of oil as I am now fascinated(some would say obsessed)  by how it works. 


  83. Holy crap – maybe TASR will also get a big order:

    Cleveland is seeking to buy 2,000 sets of riot gear … for July's Republican National Convention. [The city is seeking] "Elite Defender" riot-control suit[s] manufactured by HWI Gear and … 26-inch baton[s] manufactured by Monadnock, plus 2,000 bags to carry them. The city also wants to buy 310 sets of riot-control gear — long-sleeve jackets, gloves and shin guards.


  84. Wow looks like someone poured some lighter fluid on coal too because because even BTU is up another 10% today.  

    Are we finally going to see some inflation in this country?


  85. phil, an earnings play on HOV?


  86.   Lunar- TSLA- that trade is from over on Optrader's side. 

    I am in 170's; 175's and 195's. – scaling- I/we are in a holding pattern now waiting to see what happens. Not sure what I am going to do i.e., reduce, close, or roll. No fundamental reason for the move other than possible short squeeze.        


  87. X short now slightly in the money.  Stops at entry.


  88. SRDL/BDC – It was getting to the point where I was starting to question some basic math.  

    /NG/BDC -TOS says 24 days left on APRIL, March is done.  53 days until our May /NGK6 contracts expire.  Tick tock….  Figure the real pressure comes in the last 10 days of a contract but /NGs were particularly messed up by the 3-month delay in LNG's exports.  

    SSD/StJ – $5,000?  Don't need one that badly.   Give it a year, then under $1,000 when the 64TBs come out.  My kids tried to sell some 3 year-old computers at a garage sale last summer, couldn't even get people to give them $20 to take away machines that cost over $1,000 – technological advance is a bitch to the old stuff! 

    All clear/StJ – Still not even over 2,000 on /ES. And, don't forget, RUT was at 1,200 – it's still down the most.

    Obsessed/Craigs – That about sums it up.  It's going to fight for every Dollar back to $45 between now and May/June.  Any break in OPEC ranks and it can drop really fast. 

    TASR/StJ – I don't think they want evidence on camera.  Can you imagine Trump going in with a huge delegate lead and then getting robbed at the convention?   His people will riot!  If I were Cleveland, I'd do a preemptive strike on the whole arena – just to be sure we vaporize all the troublemakers.  angel  Of course, if Trump were in charge – that would not be going far enough and he'd want to get their whole families as well!  

    From the CNN poll’s internals:

    — Trump is dominating among Republicans and GOP leaners who are college graduates, with 46 percent, to 19 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and nine percent for Kasich.

    — Trump is dominating among suburban Republicans, with 51 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 13 percent for Cruz, and six percent for Kasich. As James Hohmann has reported, Rubio’s strategy is heavily focused on winning suburban areas in many Super Tuesday states and beyond.

    — Trump is dominating among Republicans who make $50,000 or more, with 50 percent, to 16 percent for Rubio, 15 percent for Cruz, and eight percent for Kasich.

    — Trump is dominating among Republicans who are under 55, with 47 percent, to 17 percent for Rubio, 14 percent for Cruz, and five percent for Kasich. (Unfortunately, the samples are too small to break out younger groups.)

    Inflation/Kinki – How many years have I been saying that this economy needs rising wages to recover?  Took them long enough to come around.

    HOV/Lunar – Very tricky to call since the recent housing numbers were terrible.  Very low expectations though.  I would just sell the Jan $2.50 puts for $1.10 as that nets you in for $1.40 worst case and gives you most of the gain of a move up with the option to let them expire worthless if they earnings are really good.  

    Ouch, big sell-off now, things turning red.  

    /NGK6 $1.794 so back to 10 for me!  


  89. Phil, this is the best caricature of Trump that I've seen.

    https://twitter.com/Jessewelle/status/705536765575176193/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


  90. Here you go Albo… Missing is one supposedly large appendice!


  91. Keep pushing Rubio, Trump might just whip it out and show us all!

    At this point it wouldn't surprise me at all. So sad.


  92. Phil – NG – kind of late to the game. What new Options or futures play(s) do you recommend for fresh entry?


  93. Make Donald Drumfp again!


  94. Wow (LTP):

    And WOW (STP):

    $1.354M!  That's because we had so many materials plays in the LTP!  Holy Crap, can I take a vacation now?  

    Butterfly is up 125.4% ($225,430) and OOP 18.7% so all good.  

    Speaking of things we've had to work out of trouble on:

    Trump/Albo – I would like to know what's actually up with the hair.  

    Whip it/Mkucs – That Bill Maher parody isn't far from the truth if things keep going the way they have been.  

    /NG/Bull – Not late at all!  Very early innings per our expectations of $2.20 in the near future and $3 eventually on /NG.  With 50% upside expectations we should counter decay on UNG so I still like:

    • Sell 10 2018 $7 puts at $2.15 ($2,150)
    • Buy 20 2018 $5 calls at $2.10 ($4,200) 
    • Sell 20  2018 $9 calls at 0.90 ($1,800)

    That's net $250 on the $8,000 spread and the break-even is $5.50, a bit lower than it is now on 1,000 shares if assigned.  Upside is making $7,750 and the margin is just $1,205 so very efficient. 

    1,990 on /ES and 1,075 on /TF held up well.  

    Oil right on the $36 line. 


  95. If I were Cruz, I would have punched Trump right in the face at the last debate. Might do wonders for his campaign. Call me a liar like that, you got it coming. To hell with the consequences.


  96. Haha i love when Trump calls him a liar, he says it in such a dismissive way too. Same with when he calls Marco Rubio "little Marco", cracks me up every time. 

    I'm happy Trump is in the race and doing well. Not that I agree with him on the things he says but from my (not very well informed) perspective the Republican Party had degraded so far. It seemed like it had just become business interests pandering to the religious right and it was getting really tiresome, and leaving not much choice (i.e. if you dont necessarily agree with democratic policies your really left with no logical option). 

    Hopefully, whether positively or negatively Trump (and maybe Bernie to some degree on the other side) can act as a catalyst for some kind of change in the stagnant political system.

    Just my 2 cents.


  97. SDRL/Albo- I am still riding that stock.  Never a doubt…but I haven't  slept in months either.  The rig count is finally down below 400 where we should see some progress over time with inventory draws yet  it will still be a painfully slow process.  Fortunately demand for oil globally is still increasing and is projected to continue to do so through 2035 (EIA, IEA, BP, National Academies of Science).  Whether SDRL will dilute share value is still unanswered.


  98. Good 0.02 CRS.  

    SDRL/Sibe – They need $40+ to stablize.  Goes for most of these guys.  We've really only been below $40 for 3 months and people acted like the World was ending – like it should never be possible to have a bad quarter?

    Well, nice little surge into the close keeping us green but only barely.  That's still red for the week but we cleared the bounce lines so more shopping to do next week if we're holding up. 

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil


  99. Sibe – Glad to hear you're still in SDRL.  The last three days have been wonderful for energy positions.

    Have a good weekend, everyone.


  100. OPEC- Phil I know they have done it before, but for these guys to break ranks now and say the wrong thing would seem to be committing economic suicide as well as just plain dumb . Especially since they finally have this thing going the way they want it after 18 months . 


  101. OPEC/Craigs – But SA's goal was to break the frackers.  That hasn't really happened yet and that would mean their whole plan and all the pain they've taken would be for nothing because the other Members chickened out a few months too early.  I'm sure they are having that meeting right now. 


  102. Phil are there any bull call spreads in the portfolio that are near expiration? I think I understand how these work, but I have yet to ride one all the way to the end and I still fear that I will screw it up. Do you have an example of one that went to the end where you can show us the entry price and what the exit trade was to maximize return? I understand the concept but would like to see it in real life. Thanks. 


  103. Frackers- rig counts are way down, production forecasts are being cut drastically, banks are bailing. What constitutes "breaking" them? And does that mean you think we will have another round of price drops to finish them off or will $40 oil do the job?


  104. One last question, for today, do you think oil popped more than it would have on the news of N. Korea going on standby for nuclear strikes in response to US move to impose sanctions? 


  105. /NG – Maybe working out of trouble. We've seen days like this so not counting on this being the bottom.


  106.  

    Phil/X

    Can you look at X and explain what exactly you would look at to determine when a rally is near exhaustion. I had an X BCS that I had worked down from the 20's to the single digits selling puts and calls on the way down near $6.  I ended up with naked $8 long calls after buying back the numerous short calls I had. I watched X in this latest run up blow through $8, $11, and finally $13 the 200dma.  I covered my calls at that point only to watch it shoot up to $14.5 before coming back down.  Are there signs that you look for when a stock goes up this quickly to determine when the buying begins to exhaust, and in my case when to cover?  I have tried to be disciplined with pre-determined ranges using the "squiggly line stuff", but today I was early, and I am not sure if there isn't more to come.

    Fundamentally I don't see the steel industry coming out of its funk for another year or two, and I want to own X down here (many sold puts). The new tariffs are nice, but those alone won't be enough to bring valuations much higher, right?


  107. Former Bank of England Governor Lord Mervyn King said another financial crisis will be inevitable, but that it won’t start in the banking sector.<p>Central banks are stuck with record low interest rates as a short-term fix to the 2008 financial crisis, and that the short-term measures distort the …


  108. The escalation in tensions between the FBI and Apple is quite a serious affair that has potential long-term ramifications for the safety of online security as we know it.<p>The FBI asked Apple to unlock the iPhone of Syed Rizwan Farook who killed 14 people in a shooting rampage in December 2015. Apple …


  109. NEW ORLEANS — An almost constant stream of protesters interrupted Donald J. Trump’s nighttime rally here Friday, often resisting removal and dropping to the ground as security personnel tried to hustle them from the event.<p>Almost every Trump rally has attracted protesters, but on Friday night they …


  110. Many Wall Street strategists started out the year forecasting that stock market returns would be modest, if not unspectacular.<p>But in the first few weeks of 2016, stocks have turned more sour than expected.<p>The market had its shakiest start to a year ever, the S&P 500 is down 9% year-to-date, and …


  111. And the revelations just keep on coming.<p>One day after the St. Louis Fed spent thousands in taxpayer funds to “discover” that, gasp, “<b>consumers across</b> …


  112. 16 Billionaires Who Started Working From Home


  113. Rank and File Republicans Tell Party Elites: We’re Sticking With Donald Trump

    From Michigan to Louisiana to California on Friday, rank-and-file Republicans expressed mystification, dismissal and contempt regarding the instructions that their party’s most high-profile leaders were urgently handing down to them: Reject and defeat Donald J. Trump.<p>Their angry reactions, in the …


  114. Many Russians feel the U.S. and their country are much alike. Both are vast, they share a sense of adventure, along with underlying lawlessness and violence, and in both, the infrastructure often is an afterthought. So what is keeping Russia from turning into another America — a democratic nation …


  115. The last 3 weeks have been a near unprecedented rip higher in stocks… as markets anticipated <b>G-20 cooperative actions</b> (and then BoJ and ECB …


  116. Bob Dudley, the chief executive of BP, earned nearly $20m last year – at a time when the company ran up the biggest losses in its financial history and axed thousands of jobs.<p>The $19.6m (£14m) remuneration bonanza was condemned by the High Pay Centre as another example of a company losing “contact …


  117. Is there a big infrastructure project anywhere in the country as disrespected as California’s bullet train?<p>The high-speed rail project, designed to carry passengers between Los Angeles and San Francisco in two hours and 40 minutes, at speeds averaging 220 mph, has been labeled a “train to nowhere” …


  118. People will have to work longer and pay more taxes as ageing populations put a strain on government finances, according to the managing director of the International Monetary Fund.<p>Christine Lagarde said the challenges facing governments this century required a policy overhaul.<p>Without reforms, the …


  119. 5 Charts From the Week in Markets – WSJ

    1 Recession Fears: Greatly Exaggerated?<p>Investors put U.S. recession fears in the rearview mirror, pushing the Dow industrials to their third straight weekly gain and their first close above 17000 in two months. The Labor Department said Friday that more jobs than expected were created in February, …


  120. BEIJING — China’s leadership tried to quell anxiety about its slowing economy following financial turmoil and rising labor unrest as it cut its growth target Saturday and promised to open oil and telecoms industries to private competitors in sweeping industrial reforms.<p>Premier Li Keqiang …


  121. The Federal Reserve plays a major—some would say oversize—role in American life, but it is, for many citizens, a mysterious entity: Unelected officials pore over reams of data and rely on abstruse models and theories to set interest rates, regulate banks and otherwise ride shotgun for our vast and …


  122. IMAGE SOURCE: CISCO.<p>According to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, shares of <b>Cisco Systems</b> gained 10% during February. While the company is operating in a challenging environment, the recent earnings report from Cisco Systems give investors a reason to be optimistic.<p><b>Cisco delivers</b> …


  123. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama on Friday accused Republicans of trying to “talk down” the U.S. economy by painting a doomsday picture on the campaign trail and said the rhetoric used by Republican candidates was unworthy of the American people.<p>In remarks to reporters at the White …


  124. Many Americans tell pollsters and politicians that they’re angry. Why?<p>At least part of the answer might be tucked inside the February jobs report, released Friday by the Labor Department. Consider this:<p>On the one hand, the report was brimming with good economic news. It showed employers added …


  125. With the European Central Bank’s next meeting looming, analysts and investors have begun to take a much closer look at how negative rate policies impact bank balance sheets, and how that might vary across the eurozone’s different economies.<p>The results so far aren’t too pretty. Lower interest rates …


  126. DUBAI (Reuters) – Moody’s Investors Service has cut its outlook for the debt ratings of Saudi Arabia and three other Gulf states while lowering Bahrain’s rating to junk, citing concern over the impact of low oil prices on their finances.<p>Saudi Arabia’s Aa3 rating was placed on review for a possible …


  127. SAN RAMON, Calif. (Reuters) – What does a nice meal out say about the U.S. economy?<p>Quite a lot, as it turns out, and the Federal Reserve is taking note, especially after a whopping 40,200 food service and drinking establishment jobs were created last month. That represented nearly 17 percent of …


  128. After the ECB’s December meeting, president Mario Draghi stepped up to speak to the press having cut the bank’s deposit rate by just 0.1%, disappointing the markets.<p>At that point, things in Europe weren’t looking too bad. As a note from Credit Suisse analysts led by Neville Hill released on Friday …


  129. For those of us old enough to remember television in the ‘70s the epitome of cool was the Six Million Dollar Man, Col. Steve Austin and his bionic enhancements. But what was once the purview of science fiction is inching closer to becoming an everyday reality, as optics specialist Eric Tremblay …


  130. Today’s jobs report confirms much of what we already know: Workers are finding employment at a steady but unspectacular rate, private-sector job creation is good but not great, hours worked are ever so slowly ticking up and wage increases are pretty much nonexistent.<p>This got me thinking about the …


  131. What rally? 40% of stocks still in bear

    It’s tempting to get excited about the market’s recent rally. But as impressive as the bounce has been, it is far from repairing some of the worst damage.<p>There are still 198 companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500, or 40%, mired in bear markets, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from S&P …


  132. Six Truths about Washington—Regardless of Who Wins<p>Both Congress and the White House are up for grabs in 2016, but when the dust settles and the votes …


  133. Cash Can’t Fix the Nigeria Village Ruined by Shell’s Oil

    As canoes glide past mangroves blackened by oil in the Niger River delta, two dozen children splash around in a creek covered by a sheen of crude …


  134. <i>This is a syndicated repost courtesy of The Felder Report. To view original, click here.</i> Reposted with permission.<p>Share!<p>The January margin debt …


  135. LAST month a local official in Aichi prefecture set out a daring proposal. Tomonaga Osada suggested that the authorities could distribute secretly …


  136. ECB Preview: Easing Mix in Sight as Draghi Aims to Over-Deliver

    The ECB is expected to deliver a package of easing measures at a March 10 meeting, or risk disappointing markets that are already pricing aggressive …


  137. The fundamental focus will shift temporarily from the Dollar over the coming week – just as trend pressure comes into view – with China’s NPC meeting …


  138. Holy Mitt, what a meltdown.<p>Add this one to Donald Trump’s lengthening list of firsts: He’s forced a Republican Party reckoning overdue for years, all in a few days. It took the Trump-dominated Super Tuesday contests to awaken Republican leaders to the fact that the darkest elements of the party’s …


  139. Spreads/Craigs – We don't have any in the money bull spreads that are expiring but, if you let them go to the end in the money – it depends on your broker and how they handle it. TOS pays you the net of the spread but they won't call it a policy so, technically, they reserve the right not to.  If you are worried about a spread, just make sure you close it out into the close, usually you can do it for maybe 0.05 less than the max on each leg, which is not a big deal.  It's rare for us that we haven't unwound a spread before it closes, that's why we have none open at the moment.  

    There's really no "screwing it up" because, if you do get assigned a long call, the stock is dropped in your account and the money is taken out.  If, however, you have a short call assigned, money is placed in your account and the stock is taken out.  So if you have a bull call spread that expires in the money – you really can't lose anyway.  

    Frackers/Craigs – Breaking them means they go out of business vs "cutting back production" which goes back on line as prices go up.  What the Saudis need to do is BK enough frackers that it will be hard for others to get investment capital, even if the price of oil does come back out of fear it will happen again – that's how they win.  The only reason we have so much US production on-line now is because companies were able to forecast profits for investors based on projections of $80+ oil for years to come.  If we ran right back to $80, or even $60 – what lesson would be learned?   As I have said since day one, they need Q1 and most of Q2 sub $40 and mission accomplished so far as E&P spending have scaled back drastically but that's not enough – they need a certain percentage of production shut down completely.  

    NoKo/Craigs – I don't think anyone's taking them too seriously.  They haven't even had a successful long-range missile test yet and I don't think a nuclear test either so there's nothing for them to go on standby with.  This is probably and excuse for Kim to purge more "traitors" internally and consolidate/protect his power.  By strutting around and telling America they'd better watch out, he makes himself seem tough at home.  Notice he doesn't warn China or Japan or even South Korea to watch out – they are all within slapping distance but the US is the gentle giant that small bullies can kick and insult to prove how tough they are.  

    Anyway, as to oil – it's mainly up on expectations of an OPEC agreement to cap production and a strong(er) US economy.  Now that it's up over $35, rather than constantly trying to make predictions – how about sitting back and watching how it behaves for a few days and then maybe a new range will present itself.  If you want to get rich – you have to learn not to play when you don't know what's going to happen – otherwise you'll just be giving back your winnings all the time.

    /NG/Cordoor – Same as oil, just have to watch and see where it goes for now.  

    X/DC – X is very hard to value so I don't play it but clearly was too cheap at $7ish.  From $7 to $14 is a 100% move so you then, per the 5% Rule, expect a 20% of the run-up pullback ($1.40) to $12.60, which is exactly what happened.   That's a weak pullback which indicates the stock is still bullish but below $11.20 would be signs the rally is failing.  Also, you can see from the daily candled the difference between acceleration and deceleration – that makes it pretty obvious where to cover (as should the 100% move!).  

    I do think the tariffs are a huge help but 31% of US milling capacity is off-line so, if they jump to restart that production, we'll have the same glut we have now but just with different suppliers.  Demand needs to pick up to really fix this industry and that's a long process.  

    As far as I know, this tariff suit was first bought in summer of 2014 and that doubled X up from $22 to $44 but then it dragged on and they went down and down and down since.  Now we have the tarriffs and hopefully they can get back to the $20s bit the 200 dma is at $13.50 – so watch that to see if they can take it out first.  


  140. Craigs – ITM Bull Call Spread at Expiration

    At Fidelity, my in-the-money bull call spreads have been exercised / assigned at expiration. Fidelity charges a normal $7.95 fee for assignments on both call options, thus I am left with the $ spread value in the account. In some cases, this is cheaper than unwinding the spread (and paying option commissions) prior to expiration…  


  141. Thanks Phil and Eric for the explanation of BCS expirations. Appreciate it. As to oil, Phil I am in agreement that it is a wait and see time. I was just curious if there was any news that helped the price pop and the NoKo story was all I could find, so I appreciate the knowledge that wasn't it.


  142. Moments ago, for some unexplained reason, the St.Louis Fed – which recently issued a research report which “discovered” that “Consumers Across The …


  143. It could lead to quantum systems that<p>It’s no mean feat to find the factors of a very large number — even a supercomputer can take years to find all the multipliers. However, MIT researchers have found a way to clear this massive hurdle. They’ve built a quantum computer that discovers number …


  144. SpaceX failed to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge on Friday night, striking the robotic ship in the Atlantic Ocean and disappointing billionaire Elon Musk in his quest to perfect the reusable rocket.<p>“Didn’t expect this one to work (v hot reentry), but next flight has a good chance,” Musk later …


  145. Little-reported but extremely critical data point for the oil and gas industry emerged yesterday. With insiders in the debt business saying that risk levels in the sector have risen to unprecedented levels.<p>That came from major ratings service Moody’s. With the firm saying that one of its …


  146. In a split decision, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump each captured two victories in Saturday’s four-state round of Republican voting, fresh evidence that there’s no quick end in sight to the fractious GOP race for president. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders notched wins in Nebraska and Kansas while …


  147. You no longer need a big oven to get fast, super-precise cooking.<p>Induction cooking is great for budding chefs: it rarely needs preheating, it’s energy-efficient and it’s safer than conventional burners. Getting it has usually meant going for a full-size oven or cooktop, however, which isn’t …


  148. Getty Images<p>You probably know that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s main job is to set policy for overnight interest rates. You may not realize that the Fed also produces an annual forecast of not only interest rates, inflation and unemployment, but also the potential impact of those forecasts on the …


  149. The labor market is proving to be one of the most resilient sectors of the economy in 2016.<p>On Friday, we learned that the US economy added an impressive 242,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate was unchanged at an eight-year low of 4.9%.<p>However, wage growth was disappointing, although …


  150. Frankfurt (AFP) – The European Central Bank will almost certainly announce new stimulus measures at its policy meeting next week, analysts said, as eurozone inflation turned negative and the economic outlook continues to cloud over.<p>After disappointing financial markets with what were widely to …


  151. China’s economy isn’t headed for a hard landing and isn’t dragging on the global economy, China’s top economic planner said on Sunday, but uncertainty and instability in the global economy do pose a risk to the country’s growth.<p>China on Saturday acknowledged it faced tough challenges but said it …


  152. In a split decision, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump each captured two victories in Saturday’s four-state round of Republican voting, fresh evidence that there’s no quick end in sight to the fractious GOP race for president. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders notched wins in Nebraska and Kansas while …


  153. <i>(Reuters)</i> – China aims to become a world leader in advanced industries such as semiconductors and in the next generation of chip materials, robotics, aviation equipment and satellites, the government said in its blueprint for development between 2016 and 2020.<p>In its new draft five-year development …


  154. Google today confirmed that it will remove some search results from all of its sites starting next week, if those searches are made within the European Union.<p>In 2014, an EU court decided that Google must comply with requests to remove some search results, in a decision that became known as “the …


  155. Credit Suisse analyst Eugene Klerk and his team published a note recently on the types of jobs most likely to be “disrupted” by new technology. Most people regard “disrupted” as a euphemism for “destroyed.” Klerk cites a 2013 study that found 47% of jobs — mostly in sales, services, and admin — are …


  156. As China’s leaders and policymakers gather for the annual parliament meetings, they are facing some harsh economic challenges: sluggish industrial growth, weak foreign trade and four full years’ of industrial deflation.<p>Growth in industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales likely all …


  157. WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve on Friday proposed new limits on how much financial exposure the biggest U.S. banks can have to one another, part of a rulemaking process that aims to protect the system from a failing-bank domino effect in the event of a future crisis.<p>The Fed first …


  158. (Reuters) – A majority of Wall Street’s top banks now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates only two more times by the end of the year, a downgrade of earlier expectations that may presage the Fed’s own revised view of its path when it meets in less than two weeks.<p>A Reuters poll shows …


  159. NEW YORK (Reuters) – The bulls have gained the upper hand in the U.S. stock market in recent weeks and strategists are cautiously optimistic the rebound will continue.<p>A lot is riding on whether economic data can continue to hold up, since upbeat reports in recent weeks have eased fears the United …


  160. <i>This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here.</i> Reposted with …


  161. SAN RAMON, Calif. (Reuters) – What does a nice meal out say about the U.S. economy?<p>Quite a lot, as it turns out, and the Federal Reserve is taking note, especially after a whopping 40,200 food service and drinking establishment jobs were created last month. That represented nearly 17 percent of …


  162. European government bond traders counting on the European Central Bank to boost stimulus pushed German two-year note yields to a record low this …


  163. Norway Seeks EU Assurances on Gas

    SLEIPNER, The North Sea—For three hours on a recent Thursday, Norway’s state-owned oil-and-gas company Statoil ASA transformed these offshore rigs into a marketing platform for a special guest: the European Union’s energy czar, Maros Sefcovic.<p>Natural-gas fields like Sleipner have helped cook meals …


  164. AT no point in recorded history has our world been so demographically lopsided, with old people concentrated in rich countries and the young in not-so-rich countries.<p>Much has been made of the challenges of aging societies. But it’s the youth bulge that stands to put greater pressure on the global …


  165. I’m not so sure anymore. When we talk about climate change and extinctions, we generally discuss polar bears, not bacteria. Microbes seem to be able to handle anything. But that might not be quite correct. Which is troubling.<p>A new study that just came out from Battelle’s Pacific Northwest National …


  166. <i>This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here.</i> Reposted with …


  167. Does the economy have room to grow? Could we create many more jobs and wealth if we really tried, or have we reached the limits of what we can …


  168. Why Alphabet Is A Better Long Term Investment Than Apple

    For years, Apple and Alphabet—the old Google, which last August announced a corporate restructuring and the forming of an umbrella company called <b>Alphabet</b> — have been great companies and great investments, handsomely rewarding investors who held on to their stocks.<p>Recently, both stocks have paused, …


  169. The Full List Of Every American Billionaire 2016

    While the rest of the world continues to mint fortunes at a fast pace — including 70 new billionaires from China this year alone — the United States still reigns supreme. America boasts 540 billionaires, more than any other country on the planet and more than all of Europe combined.<p>It was a rough …


  170. Lower oil prices lead to lower gas prices which leads to greater retail spending in other sectors. According to a February 13th Jefferies Franchise …


  171. <b>Are Small Caps A Better Bet In The Current Environment? by Estimize</b>The fourth quarter earnings season, in a word, has been underwhelming. The S&P 500 …


  172. Gorillas once lived happy lives, all free and easy in the jungle without any worries. But now, we’ve taught them how to express themselves and …


  173.  

     

    Phil//Any idea what “Losses” mean in this graph?


  174. Just still a comment on the ITM BCS TOS charges 15$ for each assignment so that is 30$ debit to my account!!!!!!!!!!! Thank you TOS


  175. Trump's kids in Africa hunting endangered species because when you have enough money, laws don't apply:

    http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2016/03/05/les-fils-trump-braconniers-d-afrique-proteges-par-la-loi-et-par-papa_1437727

    Un léopard et deux crétins.

    What a bunch of jackasses… What's the point really! There are plenty of other animals to hunt if you must!


  176. Good morning!

    All was well until Europe opened but they are trading down 1%+ now and we're turning down to follow (not as much so far).  

     

    Investors Fret as ECB Looks Poised to Get More NegativeSome fear unintended consequences as European Central Bank is expected to cut a key rate further into negative territory. For investors, one question dwarfs all the others this week: How low can you go? The European Central Bank is expected on Thursday to push a key interest rate even further into negative territory, a move that is at once widely anticipated by markets and viewed with trepidation. Analysts and investors say the ECB’s action likely will drive down government-bond yields, further reducing borrowing costs that are already near…

     

     

    Bank for International Settlements warns of negative rates riskNegative interest rates risk backfiring the longer and more deeply central banks in Europe and Japan venture into this unconventional monetary policy, economists from the Bank for International Settlements have warnedThe caution over one of the most important experiments in monetary policy’s history comes before the European Central Bank’s meeting on March 10. Markets expect the ECB to push its deposit rate deeper into negative territory — lowering it 10 basis points to minus 0.4 per cent — to help stave off the threat of deflation. ?

    Draghi Tries to Rescue the Eurozone Again - Mario Draghi already has saved the eurozone twice. Now the pressure is on the European Central Bank president to do so a third time.

    The European Project Was Always Bound To Fail" – Europe Without The Union

     

    Europe Faces Pension Predicament

     - Mismatch of lifespans and birthrates means too few workers are paying into European state pension plans.

    These 4 charts show just how dire the European economic situation is

    Europe’s Banks Find Dumping Ground for Losses

     - ‘Corporate centers’, a vaguely defined area set up as a catch-all for shared costs, is becoming a dumping ground for losses related to everything from bad acquisitions to penalties for wayward business practices.

    Spanish Deadlock Dents Rebound - An 11-week political impasse in Spain has hurt the country’s rebounding economy, as some businesses say they are holding back on investment plans as they wait for a new government to take shape.

    Spain Set for Stalemate After No- Confidence Vote

     - The Spanish parliament’s failure to choose a prime minister sets the stage for an extended stalemate that will keep the country under weak caretaker leadership with limited leeway to consolidate an economic recovery.

    And China didn't help either:

    While China Disappointed Stimulus Expectations, Here Is a Summary Of The Main NPC Announcements

    Yuan Breaks Four-Day Advance as Leaders Shy Away From SpecificsThe yuan snapped a four-day run of gains as China’s leaders refrained from announcing specific support measures at their biggest gathering of the year. The nation will push ahead with efforts to make the yuan more convertible and promote its use overseas over the next five years, according to a development plan released at the National People’s Congress on Saturday. The currency will remain stable against a basket of exchange rates, People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Yi Gang said on Sunday, using a line that has been repeated by several officials over the past few months. The currency fell 0.09 percent to 6.5127 a dollar as of 9:52 a.m. in Shanghai, ignoring the strongest central bank fixing in two months, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices. The offshore yuan traded in Hong Kong dropped 0.05 percent to 6.5059. The PBOC raised the currency fixing by 0.26 percent to 6.5113.

    How Hedge Funds Are Getting Around the PBOC's Market MeddlingHedge funds with a bearish view on China’s currency are increasingly betting against yuan proxies instead, after the central bank stepped up efforts to stabilize the exchange rate. Colorado’s Crescat Capital is shorting U.S. exchange-traded funds that track Chinese and South Korean stocks, while the won and Taiwan’s dollar are among those favored by Hong Kong-based Bright Stream Capital Management. The exchange rates tend to decline on negative China sentiment because the nation is their biggest export market. The need for alternatives to direct bets on the yuan intensified after China’s central bank burned speculators earlier this year. The monetary authority drove offshore borrowing costs to record levels by choking the flow of funds out of the nation, mopping up yuan supplies and intervening to support the currency. Crescat Capital returned 4.4 percent in January as its bearish ETF bets paid off, while Bright Stream said its macro fund gained 2.8 percent, helped by short wagers on the Taiwan dollar and the Korean won.

     

    China’s Leaders Put the Economy on Bubble Watch

    China’s leaders made clear they are emphasizing growth over restructuring this year, but suggested they are trying to avoid inflating debt or asset bubbles as they send massive amounts of money coursing through the economy.

     

    China’s Surging Credit Has Some Raising the Caution FlagChina Resources chairman says he is closely watching risks tied to expanding money supplyA credit boom is creating anxiety among executives and economists over heightened risks in China’s financial system and a wave of soured loans. China’s slowing economy—whose growth Beijing said Saturday would be maintained at an average of 6.5% over the next five years—is compounding a policy conundrum: how to generate lending without fueling what analysts have already flagged as the return of a residential property bubble….

    Hong Kong Homes Sales Tumble 70% as Slowdown IntensifiesHong Kong residential home sales plunged 70 percent in February from a year earlier to a 25-year low, as falling prices and economic uncertainty deterred buyers. In February, 1,807 homes were sold in Hong Kong, compared with 6,027 a year earlier, according to government statistics. Home sales fell from 2,045 in January, the data show. “The newspapers keep on saying the market is going down and buyers think they can get a cheaper house half-a-year later or one year later so are waiting," said Thomas Fok, a property agent at Centaline Property Agency in Hong Kong’s upscale Mid-levels West district where he hasn’t made one sale this year.

    Shanghai Property Market Is `Overheated,' Top City Official SaysShanghai’s most-senior official said the city’s property market has “overheated” and should be more tightly controlled after a recent surge in residential housing prices. “An irrational and overheated sentiment have emerged in the Shanghai real estate market, and these sentiments have raised home prices," Han Zheng, the city’s Communist Party chief, said at briefing during annual legislative meetings in Beijing Sunday.

    ChemChina $50 Billion Loans Flag New Chapter in China Debt BingeJust as Moody’s Investors Service warns of the strain on China’s finances of debt among state-owned enterprises, the companies are loading up on record overseas loans to buy assets around the world. China National Chemical Corp. got $50 billion in such financing for its $43 billion purchase of Swiss pesticides producer Syngenta AG, people familiar with the matter have said. Loans syndicated offshore for Chinese firms undertaking acquisitions, including those in the pipeline, have reached at least $36.3 billion this year, compared with the record $23.3 billion completed in 2015. Moody’s cut China’s rating outlook to negative from stable last week, saying state-sector leverage raises risks of a worse slowdown in economic growth as funds are diverted to service debt. Among the 38 SOEs with lowered outlooks were conglomerate CITIC Ltd., plagued by overruns in an Australian mining project, and Bright Food Group Co., which bought British cereal maker Weetabix Ltd. in 2012 and whose total debt was 137 percent of equity at end-2014. “Some of the SOEs only focus on growth right now without paying close attention to their balance sheet,” said Xia Le, chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong. “There will be risks for debt investors down the road. The huge amount of offshore loans the SOEs are taking on right now will make them vulnerable to changes in macro conditions and their own operations.”

    Downfall of Brazil’s Lula marks end of Brics fantasyThe dream of a Brics ascendancy has ended in sadness and squalor after the iconic figure of the era was seized by police at his home here, to the rapturous applause of Brazil’s stock exchange.

    Funding Slowdown May Signal Turning Point in Liquidity, BIS SaysA decline in international financing may signal the beginning of a tightening in global credit markets, according to the Bank of International Settlements.Outstanding debt securities fell the most in three years, with repayments surpassing new issuance by $47 billion in the fourth quarter, the Basel, Switzerland-based institution said in a report published Sunday that cited drops in a raft of measures of international financing. The decline in outstanding debt was driven by weak issuance by financial companies in developed economies. The slowdown may indicate financing is drying up, according to the report, which highlighted the “uneasy calm” in financial markets in late 2015 amid the prospect of higher Federal Reserve interest rates, slowing demand from China and plunging commodity prices. The deterioration of global growth prospects has rattled markets from the start of this year. “These developments in international bank and securities credit are significant because they may signal a turning point in global liquidity,” BIS said in the report. If tighter liquidity conditions persist, they “may raise stability risks in some countries, especially those where other indicators already point to a heightened risk of financial stress.”

    Faith in 'healing' central banks has faded: BISWhile financial markets have regained some composure since the start of the year, mounting global debt levels, sticky growth and the prospect of long-term negative rates are issues that are not going away anytime soon, the Bank for International Settlements has warned. Concerns about growth in China and other emerging market economies and the health of some of the world's largest banks made for a very difficult start to 2016 for most investors, resulting in one of the worst stock market sell-offs since the financial crisis of 2008.

    Debtor days are over as BIS calls time on world credit bingeThe world’s credit boom is beginning to show dangerous signs of unraveling, ushering in a period of fresh turmoil for the over-indebted global economy, the Bank of International Settlements has warned. The globe’s top financial watchdog called time on the world’s debt binge, noting that debt issuance and cross border flows in emerging economies slowed for the first time since the aftermath of the global credit crunch at the end of last year.

     

    Fed Experts Deliver the Bad News: Productivity Slump Is for Real. (videoIt’s a paradox that’s been puzzling economists for a while. How can U.S. productivity growth be slowing down at the same time that innovation in everything from smartphones to 3D printing seems to be speeding up? A trio of economists from the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund think they have the answer and it’s not particularly pretty. They argue in a new paper that the down-shift in productivity is for real. It’s not a mirage of mis-measurement by government statisticians unable to keep up with rapidly changing technology.

    Fears over US commercial property lending surgeA surge in commercial property has fuelled the fastest annual expansion of US banks’ loan books since 2007, a sign of greater confidence that also raises concerns that lenders are taking on too much risk. Holdings of commercial real estate loans — an area regulators are scrutinising closely because of worries about risky lending practices — jumped about a tenth last year.

    Peak Oil Squeeze? Hedgies Capitulate On Bearish Oil Bets

    Sanders turns up attacks on Clinton at feisty debate, Dem front-runner fights back. (videoFresh off a series of weekend victories in state caucuses, Bernie Sanders turned up the heat on Hillary Clinton at Sunday’s debate in Flint, Mich., sharply challenging her economic credentials and suggesting her gun control stand would ban guns in America. But the Democratic front-runner fought back, blasting him for voting against the auto bailout, dismissing him as a “one-issue candidate” and hitting him once again for his stance on guns. The Vermont senator reached back to the 1990s as he went after Clinton’s support for “disastrous trade agreements” like NAFTA. His rhetoric was notably more pointed and, reflecting the tension in the race, Sanders even cut her off at times as she tried to speak over him. “Excuse me, I’m talking,” Sanders snapped, during one feisty exchange on the economy. - LOL, I love that one, for the Dems, that's considered "snapping."  

    Donald Trump’s business disaster is worse than you thinkDonald Trump ran his public company into the ground, but pocketed millions for himself.

    Former-PM Admits "Future Existence Of Japan Was At Stake" As Mutations Appear In Fukushima Forest

    Is This The End Of CNBC As We Know It


  177. That's still a lot of reserves!

    .

     How do we "borrow" $6.6Tn at -0.5%?  That's $33Bn a year in interest just to hold the money!  

    Here's an excellent piece about Scalia's significant help to big business in rigging the American economy.  

    Melinda explains why girls today will spend thousands more hours than boys doing unpaid work

    HSBC’s Major says don’t bet against 's Draghi

    Not a good-looking dashboard:

    The actor and comedian Aziz Ansari goes to India, and lets his stomach lead the way

    Meet the 14 unicorn startups that have created 25 billionaires:


  178. To be noted for today is the alround meeting in Brussel, where they will discuss a fundamental decission on Fluechtlinge toproblemto be permited to enter Europe. No one seams to agree.