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Semi-Super Saturday: Needs vs. Expectations; Trump’s Bluff

By Ilene
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Courtesy of Mish.

Semi-super Saturday is over. It was a horrible night for Marco Rubio. Ted Cruz won Kansas and Maine by huge and unexpected margins. Donald Trump won Louisiana and Kentucky by a bit under expected margins.

Performance Expectations

In How the States Voted on Semi-Super Saturday, Nate Silver commented on the performance of the candidates vs. expectations.

Silver declared Ted Cruz the winner. Compared to expectation, he gave Trump a 2 out of 10,  Cruz a 9, Rubio a 1, and John Kasich a 4.

The problem with such analysis is that it is meaningless. It matters not how well one did vs. expectations. What matters is how well candidates did vs. what they needed to do.

Needs vs. Expectations

Trump had a poor showing, but let’s be serious.  Semi-super Saturday results were hardly a disaster for Trump.

Trump lost two caucuses. So what?


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