Courtesy of Mish.
Nate Silver had Hillary Clinton’s odds of beating Bernie Sanders in Michigan at 99%.
That now sounds laughable but I sympathize somewhat. I too expected Clinton would win, but with nowhere near Silver’s degree of confidence.
The reason? Michigan is one of the states hardest hit by an exodus of manufacturing jobs.
Donald Trump came out strongly in favor of tariffs, isolation, and walls.
Michigan spoke.
Like Trump and Sanders, Michigan sided with protectionism and isolation. That idea speaks volumes about the the remainder of the nomination process, and the election itself.
As I have stated for months, Silver desperately needs to update his thinking well beyond historical factors.
Florida provides a nice example, and one that is coming up.
