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Sunday, February 15, 2026

Fed Says Two Hikes, Down From Four; Market Says One

Courtesy of Mish.

Following today’s FOMC announcement in which the Fed scaled back its rate hike projections from four to two, the market scaled back its assessments even more according to CME Fedwatch analysis of Fed Fund Futures.

Let’s compare rate hike odds on March 14 to today to see how the odds shifted.

June 15 Meeting Odds on March 14

Fedwatch 2016-03-14B

“In June, the odds of a rate hike were nearly 50%. Moreover, the odds of two hikes are 8.2% vs. the odds of a cut of 1.9%. A month ago, the odds of no hike were 81.5%.”

That’s how I reported things on March 14. Let’s take a look at today.

June 15 Meeting Odds on March 16

Fedwatch 2016-03-16A


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