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Wednesday – When Fed Doves Cry, the Market Flies

How can you just leave me standing?
Alone in a world so cold? (World so cold)
Maybe I'm just too demanding
Maybe you're just like my mother
She's never satisfied (She's never satisfied)
This is what it sounds like
When doves cry

Janet Yellen could not have been more doveish yesterday.

SPY 5 MINUTE

In what was effectively a sharp rebuke of the recent speeches by Fed hawks, the Fed Chairwoman talked down the economy, pointed out global weakness and other potential dangers that will, if nothing else, keep the Fed on a very slow path towards raising rates.  Some Fed watchers thought Yellen's message was murkier than usual and raised doubts about the central bank's forecasts and monetary path.   

"Janet Yellen gave her audience limited lip service to 'baseline' projections and expectations for dual mandate improvement and rate normalization, but carpet-bombed her audience with possible downside caveats. In so doing, she created the distinct impression that she had little confidence in the Fed's baseline outlook," wrote Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, in a note.

SPX DAILYAs Dave Fry notes:  "Fed Chair Janet Yellen has it both ways—she continues to suggest U.S. economic growth is “solid” but says global growth is weak (China) hence, raising interest rates will be measured or slow.  This is mana for bulls which then means bulls can play and so too can other markets. Since growth is slow, even in the U.S., this is the cover the Fed has to please Wall Street, voters and bulls.

"Who is she kidding?   No matter the contrived BS bulls now can assume the recent recovery rally was well-known by insiders on Wall Street.  We have some substantial positions in stocks since tape action is the discipline we must follow even as we rage against obvious dishonesty and the machine.  The assurance of lower interest rates also benefits commodities with commodities overall especially gold but not crude oil, at least this day."

That's the page we were on in last week's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here if you can't afford a live feed), where we went long on Silver Futures (/SI) and, as you can see, we're already up $2,150 on 4 contracts and we'll take 2 off the table here ($15.35) and put a stop on the 2 remaining at $15.29 to lock in most of our gains.  Congratulations to all who played!

That Natural Gas (/NG) trade we discussed in yesterday's post has doubled this morning, to almost $3,000 in profits at $2.24 and that's our goal, so we're done with those entirely for now.  That brings our Futures gains on last week's Webinar up over $5,500 – not bad for a week's work!

Natural Gas is our Trade of the Year and we're using the ETF (UNG) to make our long-term play – the Futures trades are just a bit of fun while we wait.  Since we are watching /NG Futures anyway, we may as well pick up a bit of extra cash as they bounce around within our range.  

In general, we're leaning towards using this FREE MONEY rally to lighten up our portfolios.  None of the macro fundamentals have changed – this is just another shot of adrenaline getting a twitch out of a comatose economy – nothing more – especially on the global scale:

 

That's just this morning's headlines and no, I didn't skip the good news – there wasn't any – other than a nice, old lady who says she will always give us free money, we just have to join her in her candy house in the woods – what can possibly go wrong!

"In the past, she and I might have looked at a glass of water and disagreed about whether it was half full or half empty," wrote Amherst Pierpont's chief economist, Stephen Stanley. "Today Yellen took the partially full glass and dumped most of the water out and defiantly declared the glass mostly empty. Her assessment of the economic and policy outlooks is well out of step with most of her colleagues on the FOMC as well as most private sector economists."

CASH!!! Is my play for today.  You can get a lot of it for your stocks today and the Dollar is low (95), so you get a bonus when it bounces back in June when the Euro collapses!

 


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  1. Good Morning!


  2. good morning phil,  when you have a chance, your advice on rolling CVX and the SDS adn TZA hedges.  thx.


  3. I am starting to think that I might not see interest rate normalization in my lifetime. There always seem to be a reason to keep rates low (or negative) and maybe it's just globalization catching up to us where economies transfer their deflationary factors to the rest of the world… Inflation (or at least wage inflation) seems under control to that's one factor behind raising rates extinguished.

    Of course, these low rates also serve to support a higher premium for stocks – if you are going to be paid 0.1% to hold bonds, you might be willing to pay more for stocks paying a 2.5% dividend. I guess interest rate is a factor that might not be taking into account when people look at historical P/E charts (maybe someone can draw a chart with both). The interest rate environment is clearly very, very different today.


  4. Good morning!

    Futures look like 17,657, 2,061, 4,496, 1,114.5 and 17,080 on NKD.  Watch 4,500 on the Nas as that's very bullish if we pop over but we're up on an AAPL upgrade, so take it with a grain of salt.

    No real demand…

    What, us worry?


  5. Rolling/Lunar – My advice is to wait until next week to see whats real   One we lighten up on the longs – those hedges turn into bets.

    Reasons/StJ – Japan has been finding reasons for ZIRP for 30 years now.  I agree on stocks vs bonds – money has nowhere else to go – that's why these silly valuations keep going.


  6. Lululemon reported higher-than-expected earnings for its fourth quarter and full year 2015 early Wednesday, and the stock is jumping higher.<p>The company announced earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.85 per share, stronger than expectations of $0.80 per share. In addition, Lululemon generated $704 …


  7. (Reuters) – Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc (VRX.TO) (VRX.N) said it had asked its lenders to agree to waive a condition of its credit facility that would put it in breach of covenants if the company did not file its annual report by April 29, as planned.<p>The company said earlier in the …


  8. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. is trying to buy itself some time.<p>The embattled pharmaceutical giant on Wednesday morning announced that it’s launched a process to extend the timetable for filing its financial statements. Traders are sending the company’s shares up 3.5% in pre-market …


  9. LONDON (AP) — A closely watched survey shows that economic confidence across the 19-country eurozone fell in March for a third month running to a 13-month low, the latest in a run of figures to indicate that the recovery is losing pace.<p>In its monthly assessment of confidence, the European Union’s …


  10. (Reuters) – Boeing Co (BA.N) will eliminate about 4,000 jobs in its commercial airplanes division by the middle of this year and another roughly 550 jobs in a division that conducts flight and lab tests, company spokespeople told Reuters.<p>The planemaker will reduce 1,600 positions in the commercial …


  11. Phil/BID

    moving up a lot today? upgrade?

    regards


  12. Bidding $2 for the MSFT Butterfly play.  Long 2018 42P 62.5C.  Short June 55C and 55P.  Mid on trade is 1.98.  


  13. Diet soda sales were especially weak.<p>Slumping demand for diet sodas sold by PepsiCo and Coca Cola propelled a decline for the broader industry, as overall sales of carbonated soft drinks dropped for the 11th consecutive year in the U.S.<p>Total volume declined 1.2% in 2015, an acceleration from 2014’s …


  14. Former Fox Business Network analyst Tobin Smith on Tuesday settled with the SEC over payment for a penny-stock promotion.<p>Tobin Smith fined more than $257,000<p>Former Fox News and Fox Business Network analyst and commentator Tobin Smithwill pay almost $258,000 to settle U.S. Securities and Exchange …


  15. Foxconn agrees to buy Sharp for $3.5B

    TAIPEI, Taiwan – The Taiwanese company that assembles Apple’s iPhones agreed Wednesday to buy control of financially struggling Sharp Corp. for $3.5 billion in the first takeover of a major Japanese electronics producer by a foreign company.<p>The agreement by Foxconn followed weeks of uncertainty …


  16. This simple indicator is surprisingly accurate in predicting bear and bull markets, writes Brett Arends.<p>This simple indicator is surprisingly accurate in predicting bear and bull markets<p>The “death cross” technical indicator is still flashing red on the stock market, and those who respect it should …


  17. Japanese industrial output cratered in February, recording the largest monthly contraction since the devastating earthquake and tsunami that crippled the Japanese economy in March 2011.<p>According to the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), factory output fell by 6.2% after …


  18. Who wins with a $15 minimum wage?

    The people who stand to benefit most from minimum wage hikes across California are low-income adults, most of them household breadwinners, according to an analysis by UC Berkeley’s Center for Labor Research and Education.<p>A law proposed by Gov. Jerry Brown would gradually lift the statewide minimum …


  19. Pre-ordered the playstation virtual reality headset and starter kit yesterday. Good chance it's a flop or maybe its the start of something very interesting. If i was more patient I would wait until its been out for a while and see how ti develops. Unfortunately I'm doomed by my curiosity for these new technologies. I'll let you all know how it is when it arrives. 

    The preorders have been selling out quick. 


  20. In the past three months, former Dallas Fed president (before he was replaced with a former Goldman M&A banker) and current Barclays senior advisor, …


  21. TOKYO (AP) — Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says he has no plans to nix a consumption tax hike planned for next year, denying speculation that it will be postponed amid suggestions that Japan’s economy won’t be able to handle it.<p>Speaking at a news conference marking parliament’s formal approval …


  22. Image source: Michael Kors.<p><b>Michael Kors</b> stock is truly firing on all cylinders lately, shares of the fashion retailer were trading around $35.50 by Jan. 15, and they are now in the area of $56.50 per share, accumulating a staggering gain of roughly 60% in a relatively short period of time.<p>Let’s …


  23. “Not it’s not,” Trump replied, unaware he was proving Cooper correct, “It’s not!”<p>In tonight’s CNN town-hall, Anderson Cooper asked GOP front-runner Donald Trump about a photograph he re-tweeted which appeared to anyone with eyes to cast Texas Senator Ted Cruz’s wife Heidi in an unflattering …


  24. <b>What Would A Brexit Cost Europe And The U.K.? by [email protected]</b><p><i>Mauro Guillen and Bulent Gultekin on the Costs of a Brexit</i><p>Fears triggered by last …


  25. <b>Andy Hall: Oil Prices Have Bottomed</b><p>Andrew J. Hall, the head of commodity hedge fund Astenbeck Capital believes that the price of crude oil has …


  26. NEW YORK (Reuters) – Bond manager Bill Gross, who runs the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said central banks are “running out of time” to reflate global economies as their aggressive policies including quantitative easing and low, even negative, interest rates are losing their …


  27. Are rich colleges better? Can colleges buy a reputation for high quality? In a word, yes — but within limits. We looked at endowments of 650 universities and related that to reputation, as measured by the 2015-16 Forbes Top College list. As the graph below shows, schools that had large endowments …


  28. <i>This is the first in a series on China’s currency, the renminbi. Once posted, you will be able to find all the posts here.</i><p>China is in the middle of a …


  29. Too bad, CL never came back to the 37.50 bounce point from yesterday.  What a nice long it would have made today.   Although you did call 38 bullish, which I just read now.  Really have to read in detail here! :)


  30. <b>Ten years ago, a major Hollywood film entitled “Idiocracy” was released, and it was an excellent metaphor for what would happen to America over the</b> …


  31. With the Zika virus spreading largely unchecked in Latin America and the Caribbean by way of a now-notorious insect, some of the nation’s leading mosquito researchers are striving to assemble a state-of-the-art DNA map that they say will help them fight the disease with the mosquito’s own genetic …


  32. Dollar Heads for Worst Month Since 2011 on Slower Fed Rate Path

    The dollar headed for its worst month in five years as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the central bank would act “cautiously” as it …


  33. <i>This is a syndicated repost courtesy of oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith. To view original, click here.</i> Reposted with permission.<p>Share!<p><i>How many startups</i> …


  34. This race is still far from over, but that won’t stop the establishment from trying to hand the nom to Hillary<p>It’s not over. Far from it. The economic and political establishment, which includes the Democratic National Committee, its Wall Street and corporate backers and the major media—most of it …


  35. The U.S. manufacturing sector just batted five-for-five in its version of spring training.<p>Since mid-2014, the collapse in oil prices has hit …


  36. Craigs – I sold some Sept OPK $10 puts.  Have recently been out of the stock, but willing to re-enter at the $8 level.


  37. oil inventories time


  38. BID/Pat – They just had an auction in London that went well.  As I keep saying, the business has ups and downs at various auctions, which makes it a great stock to by low as most suckers are way too impatient and have no concept of art market cycles.  

    • Oil up 2.3Mb
    • Gasoline down 2.5Mb
    • Distillates down 300,000

    That's bullish for oil but it already popped so I wouldn't play it so close to $40.


  39. Saw opk just got a full response letter from fda. It was on my Twitter feed. 


  40. Albo and Burr, not sure what to make of the Opko news. The drug has been approved and the packaging and inserts as well. There is an unexpected delay due to issues with the third party manufacturer which makes other companies vitamin D drugs, so can't really understand why Opko's is a problem. So looking at a slight delay in the launch, but not too long if they can address the issues in a timely way. The stock is selling off some, but recovering a bit already. 


  41. From Briefing Trader earlier :

    OPK~~ is trading lower today (-7%) after some news from the FDA. Basically, Opko's third party manufacturer had some deficiencies at its manufacturing site. It does not relate to the possible NDA approval for Opko's hyperparathyroidism drug Rayaldee. Overall, we see it as a negative but a manageable negative


  42. NG rig count at 70 (down from 800). So I'd say we should be seeing supply slightly decreasing here. Slightly.


  43. Oops, distillates up 900,000 and gasoline only down 1.1Mb.   Not bullish at all.

    Crude inventory builds lesser than expected in the last week

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories:
    • Crude +2.3M barrels vs. +3.3M consensus, +9.4M last week.
    • Gasoline -2.5M barrels vs. -2.2M consensus, -4.6M last week.
    • Distillates -1.1M barrels vs. +0.1M consensus, +0.9M last week.
    • Futures +3.5% to $39.63.

  44. Phil am I reading the report wrong/? Gasoline is down 2.5Mb yet you say 1.1. Distillates down 1.1Mb yet you say up 900k. What is wrong with my read and what did I miss?


  45. Playstation/Crs – Ilook forward to hearing about it but I never buy version 1s.

    /CL/Burr – You have to be flexible with targets as, often you don't quite get there.  This was the key point yesterday:

     (premium)  

    Phil $38 holding so far on oil, but looks like you think we may test $37.50 before it heads higher, is that right?

    March 29th, 2016 at 11:38 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    Oil/Craigs – It's better support than $38 but, as we're getting an air turn above $37.50, then $38 can be played bullish too.

    We never got the test we hoped for at $37.50 but we had to allow for the weaker Dollar raising the bar and, clearly, we were getting good consolidation – so it made sense to go long there.  

    LOL Jabob!

    /NG/BDC – We may see a sharp drop-off in supply at some point but still a LOT of excess inventory to work off.

    Inventories/Craigs – I was reporting what heard on CNBC – it wasn't even close to reality!


  46. Craig – The data I see agrees with what you are saying. I did not see any revisions.


  47. /CL- So I guess the data is still a bit bullish then, right? Still not a great play I guess after it popped close to $40, but perhaps if it drops back below $39?


  48. Ha, I made $320 shorting it off Phil's comments from cnbc on /CL and they were wrong.  Dumb and dumber right?


  49. Craig – I continue to buy dips created by bears who think oil will never ever go up again. The bears always create the fuel for the next rally. I work in the industry and no one is making any kind of reasonable return at these prices, except for the really low cost producers such as SA.. Unfortunately much of the industry needs higher prices and the combination of declines we are seeing in production levels and the increase in demand we are seeing world wide will result in prices grind up over time. Crude runs in a long cycle and as I stated yesterday, I am looking for a cycle high in the early 2020's. 


  50. @Gingbaum

    You're forgetting by 2020, the world's consumption of oil might drop by another 25-30%.  Not arguing it won't go somewhat higher again with inflation but hard pressed right now to think it goes up significantly.


  51. Oil/Craigs – Not bullish enough for $40+.  BAck at $38.50 we can try again but it didn't hold yesterday (though the Dollar is even lower today).

    And what Ging said (modified by what Rustle said).

    Good job Burr!

    Here's a nice summary of all the factors driving oil and the markets up since Feb:

    Down 5%

    Up 10%

    Up 20%.


  52. Wow, Trump might on to something according to Krugman – but mostly by chance we think:

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/03/28/trade-deficits-these-times-are-different/?_r=1

    In normal times, the counterpart of a trade deficit is capital inflows, which reduce interest rates, and there’s no reason to believe that trade deficits reduce employment on net, even if they do redistribute it. But we are still living in a world awash with excess savings and inadequate demand, where interest rates can’t fall (or at any rate not much) because they’re already near zero. That is, we’re in a liquidity trap. And in that kind of world it’s true both that trade deficits do indeed cost jobs and that there are basically no benefits to capital inflows — we already have more desired savings than we are managing to invest.

    One indicator of how the rules differ in these circumstances: Remember all the hand-wringing about our dependence on Chinese financing, and how U.S. interest rates would spike if the Chinese stopped buying our bonds? Well, the Chinese have stopped buying bonds and started selling them. And US interest rates remain very, very low — still under 2 percent on 10-year bonds.

    I’m not saying that Trump has any idea what he’s talking about; he doesn’t. But we are living in a world where, for the time being — and maybe for a long time to come, if secular stagnation theorists are right — mercantilism makes a fair bit of sense. But then Keynes could have told you that.


  53. Rustle – That's definitely the theory. I agree oil demand will peak out at sometime and it may be in the 2020's but I just don't see it dropping 25%-30% in the next 4 years, barring some sort of major, major worldwide recession. Until I see a major shift to conservation of all things, and not just fuel efficiency standards (as almost all things made have some oil component to them, including clothing, iPhones etc etc), the demand for oil will continue to grind higher. That's my thesis, and I will take positions in that regard.


  54. Fed's Evans open to June rate hike

    • One of the leading doves at the Fed – though not an FOMC voter this year – Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says there's a high hurdle to an April rate hike, but June is a possibility should the employment numbers continue to improve.
    • He's fine with the current "dots" showing two rate hikes this year, but says there could be more if the economy performs better than expected.

    BAML: Sell these overowned stocks

    • "What concerns us most is the continued extreme overweight in lower quality stocks,"says BAML's Savita Subramanian. A strategy of buying the ten most underweight stocks and selling the ten most overowned stocks has generated an average alpha of 15 percentage points per year, she says.
    • This chart from the BAML report shows the 11 most overowned stocks based on percentage of funds holding vs. their weighting in the S&P 500. At the top is PCLN, followed by MABIIBVMDTTWXESRXBAAMGNCELGAMZN.
    • Among those underowned are: AGL Resources (NYSE:GAS) and Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO).
    • via Scott Barlow

    MetLife flies as judge shoots down SIFI label

    • Dow Jones is reporting a federal judge as rescinding the government's labeling of MetLife (MET +5.6%) as a systemically important financial institution.
    • Update: The court's opinion is sealed, pending a meeting on April 6 between MetLife and the Financial Stability Oversight Council at which they will determine what should remain confidential.

    Prudential and AIG on the move as MetLife wins SIFI case

    • Unlike MetLife, Prudential (PRU +3.5%) and AIG (AIG +2.2%) chose to accept, rather than try and fight The Man over being labeled as systemically important. That's not stopping them from joining in MetLife's rally today as a judge – noting MetLife is already dealing with regulators in 50 states – rescinds the federal government's layering of new rules on top of that.
    • Previously: MetLife flies as judge shoots down SIFI label (March 30)

    Reuters: Nigeria seeks help in revamping refineries from Chveron, Total, Eni

    • Nigeria is in talks with Chevron (CVX +1.2%), Total (TOT +2.8%) and Eni (E +4%) to get help in revamping the country's aging refineries, the oil minister tells Reuters.
    • The country, Africa's top crude oil producer, has been trying to restart its outdated refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna to end its dependency on costly fuel imports.
    • The minister also says the state-run oil firm NNPC has reached deals with oil majors, with which it works in joint ventures, to help make up for a shortage of dollars due to a slump in oil revenues hindering fuel imports.

    Shell investigated in Italy over Nigeria oil field

    • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) says Italian prosecutors are investigating the company about its role in a controversial oil deal in Nigeria.
    • Shell also says its headquarters in the Hague were searched last month by Dutch police and prosecutors as part of the investigations.
    • Shell acquired the offshore OPL-245 block, which is estimated to contain 9B barrels of oil, with Italy's Eni in 2011 for $1.3B, ending a long dispute over its ownership.

    Bloomberg: Seadrill hires bankers for loan restructuring talks

    • Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) has hired Houlihan Lokey and Morgan Stanley to advise it in negotiations on restructuring $11B of loans and bonds, Bloomberg reports.
    • SDRL has $2.6B of unsecured bonds and $8.4B of bank facilities, with nearly $3.5B of debt due by the end of next year, according to the report.
    • CEO Per Wulff has said SDRL aims to have a plan agreed with bondholders and banks by the end of June, but that reaching to a deal will be complex, in part because the company has more than 40 bank creditors across a dozen syndicates.

    A dive into electric vehicle sales numbers in Europe

    • A new website funded by the European Commission is tracking EV and plug-in hybrid sales in Europe. The top-selling EVs in Europe through the end of February as tabulatedby the European Alternative Fuels Observatory are listed below.
    • Pure EVs (ranked by volume): 1) Renault Zoe 2,976 2) Nissan Leaf 2,556 3) Volkswagen e-Golf 1,500 4) Tesla Model S 1,194 5) BMW i3 993. 6) Kia Soul 700.
    • Plug-in hybrids: 1) Mitsubishi Outlander 2,513 2) Volkswagen Golf GTE 1,517 3) Volvo XC90 1,352 4) Audi A3 e-Tron 1,246 5) BMW X5 40e 825 6) Mercedes C350e 648.
    • Overall, EV sales are below the pace from a year ago.

    Breakout by Harley-Davidson extends

    Strong booking trends lift Carnival

    • Carnival (CCL +3.6%) rallies after posting a strong FQ1 report which topped the consensus estimates of analysts.
    • The company's net revenue yield for the quarter was 5.7% vs. guidance for a 3.5% to 4.5% increase.
    • The net impact on EPS of lower fuel prices and derivate settlements was $0.03 to the positive side.
    • 2016 bookings are ahead of last year's pace and at higher prices. Carnival sees 2016 EPS of $3.20-$3.40 vs. $3.10-$3.40 prior guidance and $3.37 consensus.
    • Previously: Carnival beats by $0.07, beats on revenue (March 30)

    Lockheed liftoff: Bags $480M airship deal

    • Nearly 80 years after the Hindenburg disaster, airships are poised for a comeback.
    • Straightline Aviation has signed a letter of intent to acquire 12 new Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) hybrid airships – 280 feet long, able to carry 20 tons of cargo – in a deal valued at about $480M.
    • The company plans to use the massive blimps to run air operations for oil-and-gas companies, transporting their equipment and commodities to and from remote locations.
    • Previously: Lockheed wins Hybrid Airship certification from FAA (Nov. 17 2015)

    iRobot files proxy materials and mails letter to shareholders

    • In its latest move to defend against activist Red Mountain, iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBTsaysit it has filed definitive proxy materials with the SEC and mailed out a letter to shareholders detailing the “significant progress and accomplishments achieved” under current management.
    • In the letter, iRobot also strongly recommends that shareholders vote for its independent director nominees Mohamad Ali and Michael Bell, and says Red Mountain has “not provided an an alternative strategic plan to drive additional value for iRobot shareholders.”
    • iRobot shares are up 1.9% in early trading.
    • Earlier this month: Board battle at iRobot hits higher gear

    Lululemon jets higher as conference calls tips growth drivers

    • Execs with Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) are saying all the right things early into the post-earnings conference call (Q&A still coming).
    • The company says it's placing a sharper focus on digital channels and international expansion. Those investments explain in part the 2016 guidance from the company that came in below expectations.
    • Incremental markdowns helped Lululemon clear inventory in Q4. Looking ahead, management says it's confident inventory and sales level are now in sync. Q1 is expected to be the last period in which inventory overhang will have to be managed.
    • Previously: Lululemon Athletica beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (March 30)
    • Previously: Lululemon solid in Q4, guidance comes in behind expectations (March 30)
    • LULU +7.61% premarket to $65.90 after being in negative territory earlier.

    Box office jitters hit movie theater stocks

    • AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) is down 3.2% after B. Riley downgrades the exhibitor stock to a Neutral rating from Buy over concerns of Q2 box office numbers.
    • Cinemark (CNK -2.6%) and Regal Entertainment (RGC -1.1%) were lowered to Neutral by the B. Riley team as well on the same box office anxiety. IMAX (IMAX -0.8%) and Marcus Corp. (MCS -1.2%) were left alone by B. Riley, but are also in retreat.
    • The YTD box office gross in the U.S. is tracking behind last year's level, according todata from Box Office Mojo. The comparison could be troubling with last year's film slate back-end loaded.

    Apple estimates have bottomed, says Cowen

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is up 1.1% in premarket trading after Cowen analyst Timothy Arcuri upgraded the company from Market Perform to Outperform, proclaiming that estimates have bottomed.
    • Arcuri also boosted his PT to $135 (from $125), implying upside of about 25% to the Tuesday close.
    • Arcuri believes that Y/Y comparisons/forward estimates have bottomed, and sees the stock benefitting from the iPhone 7 launch. He also notes that the shares trade at a healthy 25% and 30% discount to large-cap peers and the S&P 500, respectively.
    • Earlier today: Apple could pursue details about FBI iPhone hack

    GOP presidential candidates back away from loyalty pledge

    • None of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates would guarantee Tuesday night that they would support the eventual GOP nominee for president, departing from previous vows to do so and injecting new turmoil into an already-tumultuous contest.
    • Front-runner Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich were each given a chance during a CNN town hall in Milwaukee to definitively state they would support the nominee, but all three declined to renew their "loyalty pledge."


  55. Wonder where Lockheed gets the helium for their blimps. Is that a limited resource?


  56. Snow – I can go drill a well in New Mexico that produces large quantities of helium, so it is not a limited resource at this time.


  57. Helium/Snow – Second most abundant element in the Universe, but not much on Earth (relatively).  Oddly enough, the number one consumer of helium is not Party City but cryogenics – super-cooling magnets in MRI machines and such.  Anyway, the amounts used in a blimp are minor as its gas, not liquid and they could extract helium from nat gas or even create it with fusion, if we needed more.  In the case of nat gas,the amount of helium we waste by not extracting it is probably staggering – could be a nice business…

    And what Ging said (you are a fountain of useful info today!).   

    Gartman/Jabob – Wow, that statement was total click bait, Gartman's a whore!


  58. Phil –  Guessing you have no futures open right? Closed /SI and /NJN6 and /CL.  

    I have alerts setup at the following

    /SI = 15.05   /CL = 37.50

    /NGN6=2.10  /HG = 2.10

    that I like for longs.   


  59. Any updates on LABU – how would you unwind it?

    Also, still comfortable CMG, CVX trades?


  60. HE/all – you guys are so informative, even for just a quick throw-away question. This is a great place!


  61. st jean/trump-onomics   – even my grandfather's broken Nazi watch is right twice a day


  62. Emphasis on Nazi for this reference rexx?


  63. st jean – good catch


  64. Did I miss the link to the webinar??


  65. webinar tomorrow, Phil mentioned it yesterday


  66. mkucstars1    *Thank you very much


  67. No Futures/Burr – Yeah, and I only have 3 screens in this hotel, it's barbaric!  How can people trade like this?? surprise

    Good thing we got out of silver (or did us getting out of silver cause the drop?)

    That's why we only buy at major supports (currently $15-15.25).  Even then, it's a rough ride.

    LABU/JMD – Let's look tomorrow, when I have more screens.

    Fed Minutes not today – next Friday!


  68. True Scott, only mine are generally filled with news and earnings reports:

    screens


  69. Good repartee guys

    Phil, do you think window dressing is over because of t + 3


  70. Dressing/Albo – What do you mean by "over"?  They've pulled out all the stops, I don't think they'll b,ow the close tomorrow – it's next week I'm worried about but, with the Fed minutes coming Friday and now cast in a new light – we may not drop next week either.  

    Earnings are now projected to be down 6.9% (only -2%, ex-energy).   With such low expectations – we may end up with beats.   


  71. Fed minutes changed to April 6th? Did they change this? I think so.

    Why does that make you think we will not drop next week Phil? Confused.


  72. By "over" I mean that even if they add winners or sell losers at this point it won't dress the windows since holdings go by settlement date rather than trade date.  At least I think that's the case.


  73. We’ve spent quite a lot of time documenting the inexorable rise in housing prices across some of the world’s red hot markets.


  74. Following last Tuesday’s attacks on the Brussels airport and metro where nearly three dozen people were killed and hundreds more were wounded, the …


  75. albo--I think it goes by trade date. If you buy AAPL today or tomorrow it will be on your March statement. So 1 more day to window dress.


  76. There is evidence that much of the rebound in the energy space has been fueled by a short covering rally and this rally has relieved some pressure on the overall market. Case in point: Chesapeake Energy. has surged over 140% since February 19. The problem is that Chesapeake Energy is doing so …


  77. The ‘Gig’ Economy Spreads

    Uber drivers aren’t the only “gig” workers rattling the U.S. economy. Older workers, especially women, increasingly are filling in as contractors across a range of traditional industries, from highway inspectors to health aides.<p>As companies look to shed noncore tasks and government budgets come …


  78. Startups that build robots are on the rise.<p>Visit a small business in 2016 and you might notice a fresh face in the room: a robot.<p>Hulking robotic devices have long been a fixture on factory floors and in other heavy industrial environments. And the dirt-sucking Roomba and its peers, rudimentary …


  79. Placing monetary policy in the hands of stock, bond, and derivatives traders is like putting the definition of meters and seconds into the hands of …


  80. Rating agency Standard and Poor’s has cut its forecasts for euro zone economic growth and inflation, blaming the ”nosedive” in financial conditions since the start of the year. Hayley Platt reports.<p>? Hide Transcript<p>? View Transcript<p>Markets sighed with relief after Janet Yellen urged caution. …


  81. <b>Central Banks – Do You Believe In Magic? by Russ Koesterich, CFA – BlackRock</b><p>Markets have rallied from their lows in February, but do the conditions …


  82. Sonic Corp. shares rose the most in a month after the drive-in chain posted better-than-expected sales and increased its annual forecast, helped by …


  83. Ted Cruz remained silent when asked repeatedly to simply say he had been faithful in his 14 year marriage.


  84. I'd like to review last week's webinar. Would someone send me the link please?


  85. Thanks, Jabob.  Somehow I got it in my head that it was settlement date.  So, possibly one more day of this nonsense.


  86. By Pippa Norris, <i>Harvard University</i><p>The world is currently transfixed by the spectacle of American elections.<p>From New York, London and Paris to …


  87. New abortion drug label could undo several state laws

    OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved a new label for a common abortion-inducing drug that could undo restrictions on medication abortions passed by several states.<p>The FDA notified the manufacturer of the drug Mifeprex in a letter on Tuesday that the drug is safe …


  88. Banks are probably safer than people believe, and real estate, the sector investors are rushing to, has become riskier<p>In the U.S., the financial crisis still looms large. The banks are treated with distrust and the markets with anxiety, and few believe the economy will ever return to normal.<p>After …


  89. The new housing crisis isn’t just about homes themselves, but about the land they stand on.<p>At least that’s according to Stuart Miller, CEO of Lennar Corp., the second-largest home builder in the US.<p>In a quarterly conference call after the company’s earnings, Miller laid out the two biggest …


  90. <b>New York (CNN) —</b> It looks like the Gulf of Mexico didn’t get the oil crash memo.<p>U.S. oil production in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico is on the rise and on track to reach a record high in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration.<p>That’s despite the enormous costs associated …


  91. Exxon Climate Science Probe Expands as New York Gains Allies

    Massachusetts became the latest state investigating whether Exxon Mobil Corp. misled investors and the public about how climate change may affect its …


  92. Wisconsin GOP Establishment Unites Against Trump

    ROTHSCHILD, Wis.—Wisconsin’s presidential primary next Tuesday represents the biggest test yet of Donald Trump’s ability to overthrow a Republican establishment united against him.<p>Top Wisconsin GOP players, from Gov. Scott Walker to state legislators to the powerful conservative talk-radio voices …



  93. Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Washington this week to participate in a major global summit on nuclear issues. Xi will also meet on …


  94. <b>Is Economic Growth In Its Final Innings? by Frank Holmes</b><p>The start of baseball season is still several days away, but a recent survey conducted by …


  95. The way information is stored and shared may now be forever changed thanks to a recent major five-dimensional (5D) digital data recording and …


  96. For half a century, climate scientists have seen the West Antarctic ice sheet, a remnant of the last ice age, as a sword of Damocles hanging over human civilization.<p>The great ice sheet, larger than Mexico, is thought to be potentially vulnerable to disintegration from a relatively small amount of …


  97. Next week/Jabob – Because now we have the Fed minutes to look forward to and more doveish spin  

    Over/Albo – True but there's also the psychology of getting a good print to close the month.

     Webinar/Latch – Go back a few days on the main page, there's a whole replay article.

    Well, that was an interesting day, I'm off to the command center!


  98. Sorry Phil I went back and could not find it.

    By the way, how was the Batman vs Superman movie?


  99. Webinar/ Latch : last week's webinar is here https://youtu.be/tfW78tc1wJc

    You can also find the link in the 3/24 chat (search for Greg's post), early in the day.


  100. Phil – what are your thoughts on shorting TSLA after the announcement of Model 3?


  101. Hey Latch,

    You can see the entire webinar archive on YouTube here: PSW Trading Webinars

    The link for tomorrow's live webinar will be in chat tomorrow morning. 


  102. CBOE Put/Call ratio for ETFs today well above average. Leveraged index protection perhaps?

    Total Put/Call Ratio ………………………………… 1.13
    Index Put/Call Ratio ………………………………… 0.83
    Exchange Traded Products Put/Call Ratio …. 3.41
    Equity Put/Call Ratio ……………………………….. 0.62
    CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Put/Call Ratio …. 0.41


  103. /cl touching 38. Phil where are u thinking now?  Retest 37? Long or short?


  104. Good morning!  

    Boy it's always great to be home – that's how much I love my command center!  I can't be the only guy with this problem.  I think it would be a good business to deliver high-powered set-ups to hotel rooms, maybe $100/day?  I'd certainly pay it, as would any trader to work on the road – especially if I didn't have to lug my own stuff around too!  Realistically, I could make due with an HP Touchsmart 23" in the middle ($1,399) and a couple of 21" screens on the side ($299) so $2,000 for a basic set-up gets paid back pretty quickly.  

    Asia was flattish and Europe down 1% so far and our Futures off just a bit:

    Last day of the month, so expect a lot of silliness. 

    Thursday's economic calendar

    MSCI restarts talks on including China A-shares in EM index

    • MSCI is resuming discussions on including Chinese mainland-listed shares in its Emerging Markets Index (ETF: EEM), though it expressed concern about barriers to investment.
    • The move would be a coup for the country, and potentially bring billions of dollars into Chinese shares from funds that passively track the index.
    • Chinese markets rallied around 50% in the first half of 2015, but slumped over 30% from mid-June after MSCI decided not to include A-shares in its benchmark.
    • Previously: MSCI paves road for A-share inclusion through ADRs (Nov. 02 2015)
    • Previously: MSCI: China A-shares still on track to join benchmark (Sep. 02 2015)

    Eurozone inflation remains negative in March

    • Consumer prices in the euro-area remained in negative territory in March, weighed down by a sharp fall in the energy sector.
    • Eurostat's flash estimate showed annual inflation of minus 0.1% against the previous month's reading of negative 0.2%.
    • The disappointing figure comes despite an ECB decision this month to launch an even bigger bazooka of stimulus measures to fire up the eurozone economy.
    • Euro +0.3% to $1.1367.

    Tesla fans line up for Model 3

    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has received its first pre-order for its Model 3 in Australia, the first market to begin selling its highly anticipated mass-market EV.
    • An overnight tweet from Elon Musk: "Tomorrow is Part 1 of the Model 3 unveil. Part 2, which takes things to another level, will be closer to production."
    • Despite yesterday's Electrek leak that described some of the car's specs, many are still waiting to see what will be included with the vehicle's basic configuration.
    • Supercharging? Autopilot? Other bells and whistles?

  105. Batman/Superman/Latch – See my review on Tuesday.   As to Webinar, Ilene usually does a main page post the day after.  

    TSLA/Bulls – Well it depends how the announcement goes, what the numbers look like and what the market's reaction is.  They are getting back to where I'd like to short them but why guess ahead of the announcement and reaction?  It's been higher and it's been lower, so it could go either way – that's my prediction!  

    Tesla Model 3 Electric Car Seen Getting 225 Miles Per Charge

    The 17 Secrets We Think We Know About Tesla's Model 3

    Tesla’s Initial Model 3 Reservations Seen Topping 100,000

    Poll: Putting down $1,000 for a new Tesla Model 3?

    Model 3: How Ambitious Are Tesla Motors Inc.'s Production Plans?

    Tesla Model 3 Could Be Timed Perfectly For Mass Market Electric Driving

    How Big An Impact Will Model 3 Have On Tesla’s Growth?

    Why Tesla's Model 3 Could Be the Big Boost Shareholders Have Been Waiting For

    Tesla’s Newest Electric Enemy: Chevy

    A Lot Riding on Tesla’s Model 3 Unveiling

    Even If Model 3 Launch Is A Blockbuster, The Pressure's On Tesla To Deliver A Huge Sequel

    The key to making winning stock picks is waiting PATIENTLY until I see something I think other people may be missing and, if I don't see something that gives me a strong conviction – I simply go find something else that does.  There's no reason my timing should be forced just because TSLA is having a press conference today – I don't see any obvious set-up so it's a coin-flip – why bet it?  

    Put/Call/Scott – VIX is low though – hard to say that's meaningful.  Still very overbought on NYSI but NYMO (short-term) has come down a bit:

    NYSI DAILY

    NYMO DAILY

    VIX WEEKLY

    Oil/Burr – Oh sorry, that chart I posted last week wasn't just for Craigs – it goes for anyone trading oil:

    You have to watch the Dollar too, as it's very low at 94.50 and so had a danger of popping back up and that could force commodities lower.  

    Silver popped nicely off $15.25 (as usual):

    Copper just goes down and down:

    As does the Dollar:

    You KNOW this is wrong so, therefore, we expect the Dollar to come back soon:

    By the way, tomorrow the ECB begins throwing $1Bn more per day onto the fire (Draghi's increase) – that should put somewhat of a floor on things, one would think….


  106. Phil – Thank you for the words of wisdom. I have to shut off that part of my brain that tells me to try to guess


  107. Previous comment egarding TSLA