Courtesy of Mish.
Political pundits are ringing the death bell for Trump if he loses big in Wisconsin.
However, those rumors are remarkably premature ahead of the New York primary.
A sweep in New York (and that looks increasingly likely), will more than cover any losses in Wisconsin.
New York Rules
New York Primary rules are complex but here is the story from Front Loading.
On the one hand, there is a qualifying threshold. If a candidate wins more than 20 percent of the vote, then that candidate becomes eligible for either statewide or congressional district delegates.
On the other, there are winner-take-all thresholds at play in New York as well. If a candidate wins a majority of the vote either statewide or in a congressional district, then all the delegates either statewide (at-large and automatic) or in a district are allocated to the majority winner. That winner-take-all trigger, if tripped, renders the 20% qualifying threshold unnecessary.
Should some candidate win a majority, this process becomes a lot easier. Anyone over 50 percent is allocated all 14 at-large and automatic delegates.
I am still not quite positive what that says, but if Trump wins the state with over 50% and most of the districts with over 50% at a minimum he will win the vast majority of the delegates at a minimum.
This is one I have been following closely, and this is what it looks like courtesy of Nate Silver.
Trump’s Odds
