Courtesy of Mish.
In the wake of the Wisconsin primary that really didn’t change anything, the amount of media hype to the contrary is amusing to watch.
For example, Jake Novak at CNBC says Forget Trump. Paul Ryan is the likely GOP nominee.
Novak bases his analysis on the idea that a genuinely brokered convention requires three things.
- Two leading candidates neither of whom has a majority.
- Irreconcilable differences such that neither would ever support the other.
- A third compromise candidate that both sides can begrudgingly support.
Novak believes Trump cannot defeat Hillary (an idea I strongly refute), and this will cause the delegates to rally around Paul Ryan.
Silver Says Cruz, Not Ryan
Nate Silver says Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention.
It’s like something out of an Aaron Sorkin script. After their bitterly divisive primary, the Republican delegates come together to nominate John Kasich on the fourth ballot at a contested convention in Cleveland, despite his having won only his home state of Ohio. Or they choose House Speaker Paul Ryan, despite his not having run in the primaries at all. Balloons descend from the ceiling, celestial choirs sing and everything is right again with the Republican Party, which goes on to beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November.
As I said, it’s like something out of a TV show. In other words: probably fiction. It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington.
But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will.
Delegate Selection Process Favors Cruz
Silver goes into a detailed explanation of the five major delegate selection mechanisms, noting a whopping 1,358 delegates (55% of the total) are chosen through state and local conventions.
