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Thursday, February 19, 2026

Mish Projection: Trump Wins Nomination with 1,246 Delegates (9 More than Needed)

Courtesy of Mish.

Starting with the projections of a Panel of Experts on Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website, and deviating surprisingly little, I project Trump will win the Republican nomination, albeit with a scant margin of nine.

Mish Projection

How Trump Wins

State by State Details

Trump path to Nomination 1

Some of the expert projections cannot happen. For example: Nebraska, Delaware, and Pennsylvania are all winner take all states. One of the experts made a mistake but the averages are shown.

I accepted the consensus estimates, plus or minus 1, in 15 of 18 cases. In the 19th case (uncommitted delegates), the experts made no prediction. I do not expect Trump to win many of those, but I do not expect he will lose every one of them. I awarded Trump a mere 15 out of 125.

Some states I know very little about and there are no recent polls. Five states, shaded in blue, (Colorado, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico) are places where I went with the expert opinion. However, I suspect Trump can pick up a handful somewhere.


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