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Friday Market Follies – There Ain’t No Way Out

"I lose so many nights of sleep worrying about my responsibilities
Are the problems that screw me up really down to him or me
Dish me out another tailor-made compliment
Tell me about some destiny I can't prevent
And however much I squirm
There ain't no way out" – Townshend

Women our age (45-64 – and I like being in the low end of a demographic) are killing themselves 63% more often than they did before the dot.com bust and we men are not too far behind with a 44% bump in bumping ourselves off (and we do it 3 times more often anyway).  Even worse for my demographic, white men are killing themselves 59% more often and white women an astonishing 80% more often.  Men mostly shoot themselves (we luvs our guns!) and women prefer to take poison.  40% of all suicides were due to "external economic factors."  

As a serial entrepreneur, I am generally an optimistic person.   I started a dating service in college (Personality Plus - early 80s), worked for others for a while but, at 25, I realized I would never be a millionaire at 35 working for other people so I started my own company (Accu-Search – real estate data) and hit my goal in less than 10 years.  After I sold that company in 2004 and "retired," knocking about as an Business/M&A and consultant.  I got bored and started this company (now called PSW Investments) in 2006 and now, 10 years later – also worth millions.  

I'm not saying this to brag but I'm saying this to anyone who is worried about their future financial situation – you can completely turn your life around in 10 years if you work hard at it.  Hell, as an investor in a start-up, if I give you $50,000, I expect to be getting back $100,000+ in 3 years or less or I wouldn't even bother with the investment, that's 33% per year and that's LOW for venture capital – that is the EXPECTED PERFORMANCE for people who work hard and start their own business.

Don't despair over money – do something about it.  Take control of your finances and start feeling better about your life.  PSW Investments funds start-ups, so I'm always meeting people with great ideas who remind me of me when I was 25 and it also reminds me that, at 53, I've got as many good years ahead of me as the people I'm mentoring do between now and when they are sitting in my place and the only difference between them and you is that they don't have 25 years of baggage weighing them down!  

If your life is off-track to the point where you are depressed and even thinking about ending it – then why not just change it?  From the time you get your first job (16ish) to the time you are 26, you are generally learning the ropes and then, at 26 the alphas tend to start businesses or get on fast-track careers and others choose the safety of steady paychecks.  And there's nothing wrong with that – as long as that steady paycheck is going to help you get to your life goal – which should, of course, include a well-planned retirement (see "How to Get Rich Slowly" to get on track).  

A company who's finances are totally upside down simply goes bankrupt and starts again.  Donald Trump has gone bankrupt 5 times and he's on track to be our next President – so don't tell me you can't rip off life's band aid and start again – you just have to muster the will to do so!  

This is not a self-help blog so I'm not going to get into details but I just want to say you CAN change your life pretty much any time you want to – you just have to Let it Go (that's why the song is so popular).  

"Everything that's broke

Leave it to the breeze

Why don't you be you

And I'll be me

I used to recognize myself

It's funny how reflections change

When we're becoming something else

I think it's time to walk away"

Let it Go applies to your portfolio as well.  We let go of our underperformers last month to make room for more winners.  The same has to go for you life (or a business) – take a step back and look at the things that are stopping you from hitting your goals and DO SOMETHING ABOUT THEM.  That includes looking at your savings and expenses and making real changes – like getting rid of a house or a car that's costing too much.  So many people these days are going broke just trying to keep up appearances (read "The Overspent American") - no wonder they are stressed!  

One of the inefficiencies of modern Capitalism is the availability of debt.  It's not that you CAN have debt financing – it's that it's pretty much shoved down your throat because that is how banks make money – lending it to you.  In the old days, banks would pay you to hold your money (a thing we used to call interest) and they would, in turn, lend the money out for homes or other large expenses at higher rates of interest – to be paid out over time.  

These days, if you go to the 7-11 to get a Big Gulp, you are encouraged to pay with a credit card.  As recently as the 90s, I would get 5% for putting money in the bank and saving it and, when I went to get a car loan or a house loan – it would be 7-9% and that spread would be how the banks made money.  These days, banks CHARGE you to hold your money and still charge you 4.5% for a home loan and 19% for credit cards – they WANT you to be in debt up to your eyeballs, because then you are working for them, not for yourself.  

When I was a kid (70s), I remember my Grandfather had a Diner's Club card and very often the restaurants would look at him like he was mad when he would ask if he could settle his bill with a bit of plastic instead of good, old cash.  Just 10 years before that (1959) was the first time MICR codes were invented, leading to the widespread use of checks.  Before that – CASH!!! was how we paid for things.

When you pay for things with cash, a funny thing happens – you don't buy things you can't afford.  When you can't afford your house – you move because, well because you can't afford it, silly.  Easy access to credit gives us easy access to fantasy lifestyles that are not sustainable and are leaving most Americans with no savings and even debt as they get near retirement.

If you are worried about retiring, you might want to consider letting go of your current expenses and checking our cheaper places to live, like Memphis, where a 2Br apartment costs $726/month and the cost of living is 14% lower than the national average.  Virginia Beach is another place that is nice and cheap (so is Thailand, for that matter).  When you are struggling to save for retirement, consider cutting those costs before you retire, not after.  

As to the markets, who cares?  It doesn't matter if your portfolio makes 10%, 20% or 30% this year if you are not taking the steps NOW to put yourself in a position to comfortably retire in the future.  Don't let short-term gains fool you into overspending now and getting yourself into a trap.  

Yesterday, our week-long short bet on the S&P Futures (/ES) on the 2,100 line finally paid off and we plunged to 2,085 for a $750 per contract gain (you are welcome!).  Oil also worked very well as we toppled back to $43 for a $6,100 gain on the 5 /CL contracts we mentioned in yesterday's morning post, which we initiated in Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar.  $6,100 pays for a whole year's rent in Thailand!  We took the money and ran on both but I think we flatline into the weekend and next week is heavy, heavy with earnings and we'll begin to get a clearer picture of what's been going on in Q1.

There's a Fed Meeting next Wednesday and lots of data starting with New Home Sales on Monday, Durable Goods, Case-Shiller and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, MBA Index, Pending Home Sales also on Wednesday and Thursday we get our first estimate of the Q1 GDP (yikes!) and Friday will be Personal Income and Spending and a very iffy Chicago PMI but all that data will be lost in a sea of earnings reports.  

So, spend the weekend considering the things you need to let go and DO IT!  Life is far too precious to waste it dwelling on the past or even wallowing in the present – the future is a bright and exciting place and you can make it whatever you want it to be – just take that first step and start heading there! 

Have a great weekend,

- Phil

 


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  1. Suicide shift/Phil – good post, Phil. When I was still in grad school (early 80s, ahem), I did a piece of epidemiologic research comparing suicide and homicide, and one thing that stood out was the high suicide rate for men 67 – 69. That was when most places had the mandatory age 65 retirement policy. So these men identified strongly with their work, then retired and so to speak found that they had lost that identity, with nothing to replace it, and felt useless. So they decided to die, essentially. I dug deeper into the broader statistics, and it wasn't just suicide, overall mortality for men was highest at those ages. So if you were able to adapt to being retired, you had a good twenty years ahead of you – if not, that was the end.


  2. Joe Walsh Fans

    How low can you go  ( interesting how Fox reports the story compare to Joe)

    Republicans Tried to Trick Eagles Guitarist Joe Walsh Into Attending GOP Convention

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/04/21/gop-trick-eagles-joe-walsh-attending-republican-national-convention.html

     

    http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2016/04/21/eagles-joe-walsh-drops-out-gop-convention-show/


  3. /dx up, /si up, /cl up?  ummm….. no sense



  4. coke—-if u played the channel on /qgn6  ( which is nat gas) u should be looking to get out now around 2.335 for about $67.50  gain on $385 margin for 1 contract


  5. Good Morning!


  6. MSFT earnings last night and we have a BFly on them with Jun short options.  Good day to roll down and close upside call?


  7. PFE – New recovery high.  Baby steps.


  8. And over $44.  Feels like she's gonna run today into the weekend


  9. savi, i am curious--are you long or short /qgn6?


  10. Good morning all.  Phil , any interest in shorting the Nikkei? Pretty decent boost today.


  11. Phil, how/when do you decide to roll a short call? I think I worry more about missing the maximize profit than I do protecting gains already made. Here's an example: On your advice, I have -40 2018 BID 20 put and +40 2018 18/30 BCS – looks good. But left over from initial BID sales I also have -20 Jul puts and -20 Jul 30 calls. When do you roll the Jully calls. Do you wait until expiration? Would you roll it sooner at 32?, 34?


  12. nice moves on RIG and BHI.


  13. Team PSW….let's keep a bind on it…we can relate to this yesterday.

    ~~The news yesterday that Chyna and then Prince had died caused a couple of starts for oil analysts until it became clearer what or who exactly we were talking about.

    I remember watching Chyna on one Dr. Drew's intervention show – she seemed nice but very troubled.  RIP.


  14. Inspirational morning post, Phil.

    Got some things to think about…. 


  15. Covered some BAC with Jan 17 $17 calls following this 2+ point move in the past two weeks.


  16. Phil

     Whats our trade on GILD?

    Thanks


  17. lunar—I just use the pp charts that Phil uses in his webinar when talking about futures—/QGN6 hit the pp and bounced this morning and I just went long and got out when it closed in on R1—i do this only on the small futures acct as I feel I can weather a $5000 wipe out :-)


  18. For those who want to play oil for less margin like Savi is doing on Nat gas, /QM is another way to go. More expensive than nat gas as the big ones are it is about half the cost of /CL and pays out half as well or  $12.50 for $.025 moves.


  19. A note on credit cards – they can be used like cash if you pay them off before interest is charged. Personally I find cash annoying. I dislike it in the unusual circumstance when I'm about to pay for something with cash and I know change is coming back (i.e., actual coins). I almost wish every purchase in the US was rounded to the nearest dollar, or rounded up to the nearest dollar and the difference goes to a savings account or brokerage.

    Actual I have an Acorns account and it does exactly this, but I have to use a card.

    But funny enough Phil, getting back to the feeling you are describing of paying with cash so you actually feel the money leaving your hand (as opposed to using credit), is exactly how I feel spending bitcoin or an altcoin, so maybe we've come full-circle. A $100 bill now only bought $16.79 worth of goods in 1970, and in 1970 a $100 bill bought almost 3 ounces of gold. So a pile of cash doesn't buy what it used to either, a subtle way the government encourages us to SPEND on credit, sort of like how a casino will color up your chips if you are doing well.


  20. biod/bitcoin

    Do you use coinbase to buy bitcoin or other?


  21. Hello PSW mates…things are crazy in Biotech land!  We are filing our IMPD in the EU for our new drug to test in humans, and also gearing up for another one 9 mo or so behind it.  The speed at which we are moving is quite incredible to say the least, and trumps my last company.  Needless to say, I am quite busy.  In addition, our company is moving, so this is also quite a feat.  My personal life is busy with running our Baseball league….I barely have time to sit.  I am lurking, but nothing to note right now, as I don't like the environment of biotech investing.

    GILD…while they may have best in class, ABBV and MRK are right there….so they need to watch the pricing.  I would be very careful with them.  SGYP and CRIS remain my favorites, and I will try and get something out on why in the next week or so.  For mid tiers, BMRN, REGN and ICPT could be take over targets, and I would watch them.  Scouring the landscape for others.

    Hope all is well for everyone!  -Pharm


  22. Pharm, why did PLX s.t.bed?


  23. Phil is there any level where you would jump into futures today or is it too crazy to even try on a Friday? It just looks like we are getting too high again on many of the trades you follow. However maybe this is just the start of a new leg up, so I await your calls. Happy Passover to all who are celebrating this evening.

    BDC- Using credit even when you pay it off can be tricky for anyone who is not totally disciplined. Many people will avoid bad news, so they don't open mail for fear of seeing a new bill or they will avoid looking at bank accounts to avoid seeing how low it has gotten. Using credit can be like this, they will spend and not look at how much they have spent until they are in over their heads. This is the psychology that has made people poor and credit companies very rich. They prey on people who do this. Usually it is not the wealthy, who aren't afraid to look, but most people will get in very deep just to avoid facing how bad their situation is and keep themselves in a state of denial. 


  24. PLX/Bur – I still own them, lots of them, but for right now, they are flat lined until they can get some traction with the new biosimilars.  Time, time time…..so, accumulate slowly.


  25. pharm, do you have a quick opinion on ARNA.  thx for your thoughts on PLX.


  26. ARNA…dead.  Early discovery, and not worth the time right now.


  27. Phil, Rustle, Burr, Scottmi – from yesterday – it's small, it's purple, it's from Minnesota, it's dead at 57?  RIP Prince Rogers Nelson aka "Love Symbol" or Font, immense talent, another tragic loss, so young.


  28. Good morning!  

    Nice video explaining the scam at the Federal Reserve.  

    And, meanwhile, WTF – police pepper spraying students like they are roaches.  

    Retirement/Snow – Leading killer of men over 65 – you won't catch me doing it!  

    Walsh/QC – Good for him!  

    April 20, 2016 – “It was my understanding that I was playing a concert which was a non partisan event to benefit the families of American veterans on Monday, July 18 in Cleveland. The admat I approved said this specifically. Today it was announced that this event is, in fact, a launch for the Republican National Convention. In addition, my name is to be used to raise sponsorship dollars for convention-related purposes. Therefore, I must humbly withdraw my participation in this event with apologies to any fans or veterans and their families that I might disappoint.

     

    I am very concerned about the rampant vitriol, fear-mongering and bullying coming from the current Republican campaigns. It is both isolationist and spiteful. I cannot in good conscience endorse the Republican party in any way. I will look at doing a veteran related benefit concert later this year.”

    No sense/Burr – That's why I said it's a no play day.  

    /TF jammed up real good too. 

    Big Chart – Gotta consider it strong with RUT over the 200 dma and all those rising 50 dmas – won't be bearish now until we fail the 50s and 200s  and, since that's 80 S&P points away (4%) – it means we don't need to add more hedges over the weekend because the worst we are likely to get is back to where we were last week with our current mix – so why spend money we don't need to.

    LTP is now up 93.9% at $969,500 and STP is up 383.4% at $483,362 for a combined $1,452,862 – which is up about $100,000 for the month so THAT is our hedge for the moment.  Anything over a combined 100% ($1.2M) is so far ahead of our 3-year goal that it would be silly not to let the market play out if it really wants to rally.  Don't get attached to that extra $100,000 though, it can disappear as fast as we gained it in a small correction but we do have record amounts of cash too and the STP is using just $55K in margin so that may as well just be a pile of cash we can deploy!  

    The Butterfly Portfolio is up 161.4% ($261,355) using $98,250 in margin (1/5) and the OOP is up a whopping 43.5% at $143,527 using $77,000 in margin (1/4) – so we're right where we want to be – very cashy, very flexible…  I'll put up the updated portfolios later.

    MSFT/Butterfly, Burr - I certainly don't think MSFT is coming back and putting the short June $55 calls in the money again so not sure I want to spend $600 (0.6% of the portfolio) to get rid of it.  Also,  I don't want to buy back the short June $55 put right when it's spiking to the high of the day and I don't want to make a commitment to DD on the short put side by selling more since it's 20, not 10 so the best thing to do seems to be watching and waiting to see how it shakes out.  

    PFE/Albo – Told you so!  

    It really amazes me how people just walk right past these value plays to put their money into things that cost 50+ multiples of earnings.  One of the best things you can do as a trader for the long-term is to embrace the boredom of owning strong stocks like PFE and simply ignoring silly things like TSLA or ONTY or VRTX.  Yes, some of them go parabolic but many of them don't and that steady 15% per year will make you so rich!   MCD, for example, has returned over 500,000% since it started – one hamburger at a time (and Michael Keaton is playing Ray Kroc in an upcoming movie about it).  

    Nikkei/Latch – See previous post comments this morning, but no is the short answer.  

    When/Jmd – Like the rabbit says, only when it's funny!  It always depends on what you have vs. what you think you'll need going forward and the risk/reward of making a change.  Unless you are 75% certain you're better off rolling – DON'T.   So with BID, it's at $28 and you sold July $30 puts and calls – that's called being RIGHT ON TARGET – what madness would make you want to change that?  The only reason you'd change it is if you think, for some reason, that BID will be significantly higher or lower than $30 in July that you will pay take a hit on the bid/ask spread on both sides of the roll and pay additional broker fees just to change your target.  If you are that sure of another target – please enlighten us so we can all get rich!  

    By the way, the guy who projected $30 in July – BRILLIANT!  

    RIG/Lunar – I was going over the LTP and forgot what a big bet we still have on RIG.  Every time I run the numbers I end up deciding to stick with them.  BHI, on the other hand is one of the most mispriced stocks I've ever seen – I've banged that table into splinters, I think.

    Thanks BDC. 

    GILD/QC – Well, Yodi has a portfolio play and all we have is the 10 short 2018 $70 puts in the LTP that we sold for $9.80 back on 1/29 – sadly, we're only going to get to keep the $9,800 as it never came back down enough for us to add a bull call spread:

    That's the downside to having great timing…  blush


  29. Phil – cash, credit, cessation and casualties (financial), like lawyers guns and money, a sobering and true AM post. We kicked around the mortality issue here some months back, I Nattered here and here about the Lost Americans. Makes one wary of their mortality.  Yesterday we wax nostalgic, today we are here, and tomorrow we know not. Hence, the present is the gift, so celebrate it and throw flowers at the living.  Out.


  30. phil, why are you expecting a sell off in /NG on monday--you mentioned it yesterday.  thx.


  31. Phil / MSFT –  I only have 2 butterflys on.  If you only had a small postiion, would you sell lower July puts here?


  32. Credit cards/BDC – I agree, I use cards and pay them off.  I'm always yelling at my family and friends if they don't – it's completely insane to pay 19%+ interest on anything.  Good point on coloring up chips – too bad it's not because America is doing well though.  

    Thanks for summary Pharm, glad to hear things are going well.  

    Futures/Craigs – We had 4,500 for /NQ – that was a good line but now I don't see anything exciting other than /TF below 1,135 (now 1,136.8) if the Dow fails 17,800 and the S&P fails 2,072.50 as those are S1 lines for them while the Nas is below S2 and /TF is still over it's mid-point, so lot's of catching up to do if things begin to fail but, personally, I'm not in the mood to gamble.

    Oh yeah – Happy Passover.  I better get my last sandwich for lunch!  

    Good point on denial, Craigs.  

    /NG/Lunar – I sells off most Monday mornings, that's all.  No particular reason but we've done very well buying those dips.  

    MSFT/Burr – I'd sell into the excitement by selling 2 Aug $50 puts ($2.30) and rolling the 2018 $62.50 calls ($2.20) down to the $57.50s ($3.50) and adding 2 more of those.  That's taking advantage of the legs you can (assuming a recovery) and then you can sell more short calls when they recover or, of they don't recover, you sell calls anyway!  


  33. Helluva post today, Phil. Great one. More of the the added value you are always putting in, above and beyond "stocks." It makes a difference, and is appreciated.


  34. /DX, /CL, /SI – Burr, I get it this time..all the funds that were flushing out of GOOG and MSFT.. Those all had to go somewhere…


  35. Prince/Naybob – I thought he was just a noisesome screechy guy until I saw Purple Rain when it first came out. Totally converted, discovered the talent and genius, and respected ever since. I'm impressed with the breadth of tributes… I'll choose to view them all as a testimony to his impact, individually and societally.  


  36. UNG

    My long bought on Tues at 7.07 doing well – tgt is 7.60 for this move – and my stop was really tight at $6.85.  And yes, I'm a pure technical guy – witchcraft – I know Phil.  But as you said, enough traders use it to make it quie effective when combined with Standard Deviation channels and other support and resistance data points.  About 76% effective in my 100's of trades sample.


  37. Phil – the fed stockholders get SIX PERCENT???????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Now I know why I'm long FLX forever. Shit!


  38. oops! XLF…


  39. Speaking of letting things go – the kids agreed to sell our Star Wars Pinball machine for $3,500 and we put it all on LQMT!  Here's the key note from the Conf Call:

    Now as all of you are aware, on March 10, we closed a round of funding for $63.4 million in conjunction with a parallel license agreement with EONTEC, a Hong Kong-based corporation publicly traded on the Shenzhen Exchange. The initial investment of $8.4 million was received on March 10, and we expect the remaining 55 million to be funded sometime in the third quarter of 2016, subject to shareholder approval of our request to increase the company's authorized shares. For a more detailed discussion on the transaction, please refer to our 8-K filed with the SEC on March 14, 2016.

    To provide some perspectives, the $63.4 million investment was made by Mr. Lugee Li, who is the Chairman and CEO of EONTEC. Pricing was based on investment tranches as per share prices of $0.08, $0.15, and $0.25. This works out to be on average of about $0.16 per share, which was 100% premium on our stock price at the time of the transaction.

    In addition, Mr. Li's investment will have a tremendous impact on our ability to advance our Liquidmetal technology. Compared to prior fundraisers done through investment funds, Mr. Li's investment is long term and is strategically focused, which aligns well with the company's financial goals.

    We can now focus on deploying our financial resources to invest in global operations without the concern for raising money in the foreseeable future. I am truly excited about the partnership with EONTEC and look forward to working with Mr. Li as our newest Board member.

    Also:

    Request for quotes or RFQs increased from 20 in 2014 to an impressive 308 in 2015. Furthermore, the quality of RFQs continued to increase throughout the year as we continued to educate a growing number of engineering and procurement professionals about our technology.

    Between our MSRs and the Liquidmetal staff, 265 customer visits were made in 2015 versus 10 in 2014, and we presented face-to-face technology presentations to 620 engineering professionals versus 50 in 2014. This effort resulted in nine orders of which two were for production part.

    This is a list of specific applications where we have early positive interest from customers regarding our value proposition, whether it be our material properties, design flexibility or cost. We track the value of these applications in terms of projected annualized revenue. Our list totaled $500,000 at the end of 2014 but grew to $27 million by the end of 2015. Seeing in the increase in application opportunities is exciting, however, more important to me is the quality of customers we've managed to engage with to see their serious interest in our technology.

    While our sales cycle is long, our efforts throughout 2015 have moved several applications far enough along the development path that we anticipate being able to secure 10 to 15 new customer orders this year. I am enthusiastic about our ability to achieve these results evidenced by the nine orders we received in 2015, all of which were identified on our 2014 opportunities list.

    So our optimism going into 2016 is that we went from 20 RFQs to 308. Out of the 308 RFQs, we have already identified about $27 million worth of annualized opportunities that will start falling of that opportunities list and flow through our prototype and then production system during the year.

    We have filed over the year 126 patent applications, which includes from 2010 when we signed our kind of watershed agreement with Apple. We only had 53 filed at that point in time. We're up to 126 now.

    So, it's unlikely that we'll get to profitability in 2016, but we certainly should be moving in that direction and feel good about those opportunities. And, again, what I would say is with the addition of the capabilities that we're picking up from EONTEC, we think we'll be able to address more parts more quickly, and we actually have capital to take advantage of some of the opportunities that are on the horizon course that we would not have been able to take advantage of without that.

    Well, I never want to predict what the stock market would do. I think it's going to take people a little while to understand how beneficial this is to the industry, to our customers, and ultimately then to us.

    It's a fun play that has a chance to be a 10+-bagger over time.  $1.30 would be a $700M valuation – I think $25M in earnings eventually should justify that.  

    Thanks Scott.  

    Prince/Scott, Naybob – TMZ is saying it was drugs.  I thought he didn't do that? 

    Another day, another mass shooting in Ohio.  

    Multiple fatalities at Ohio, media reports say seven dead

     

    We have a lot of catching up to do if we're going to break 2015's record. 

    UNG/Hanj – Well you missed our in at $6.50 but that was when the chart looked really crappy.  wink

    Good morning!  

    Speaking of the death of oil – cool new transparent solar technology will spread it to many, many more devices.  Here's a video.

    I just got interviewed by Benzinga (9am) and we talked about shorting the S&P, long UNG (back to $6.50), long LL, shorting TSLA and, when push came to shove BHI is still my favorite long in their Uram Ihsayabok (no-lose) situation and still trading down at $42.70.

    6%/BDC – Yeah, isn't it amazing?  


  40. MPC      someone is making huge cheap bets they go up.  There are 80,000 Jan17 $50/$60 bull call spreads and 12,500 Jan18 $60/70 spreads.  Don't see any corresponding puts sales.


  41. AMZN     looks like they will trade anything.  Someone bought 2000 Jan17 $1020 calls for $1.55.  That is the highest strike available


  42. Phil

     Your thoughts on FB earning due on the 27

     Whats the best way to cover sell calls, buy put

     Put spread

     Thanks


  43. Speaking of penny stocks, the guys putting out GreenCoinX (sorry BDC) are actually listed as GRNBF, a penny stock trading at 0.184 at the moment (I have 20,000 – mentioned it a while ago).  The difference with GreenCoinX is that it's NOT anonymous and that means, MAYBE, they will have an easier time being accepted by Governments, which matters a lot in the 3rd World, where they are targeting their business as an on-line bank alternative.  Their limit is supposedly 200M coins and they are currently trading at $1.15 and GRNBF has 60M of them as an asset.  They charge no fees and don't make money on the use of the coin – just if the coin makes money. 

    I may interview these guys in a week or two and I'm not suggesting that this stock is anything more than a craps roll BUT I like the discount that owning GRNBF gives you to the currency as, in theory (if GreenCoinX were widely traded) they own $69M worth of coins yet 0.18 values the company at less than $3M so it's the 20:1 discount to THEORETICAL value that makes it interesting to me.  

    If these were BitCoin-like and took off to $10 each, then the company would get noticed and the value of their holding would be realized (at $600M) and the stock, IN THEORY, could hit $600M as well and that would be 200x on the investment so it pays better than roulette with a bit less odds of success.

    GreenBank Subsidiary GreenCoinX Enables XGC to Trade on 15 Crypto Currency Exchanges

    Isle of Man Welcomes GreenCoinX

    Now Obamas trying to talk the UK out of leaving the EU.  Wow, I guess it would be globally catastrophic if there's a Brexit because everyone is scrambling to stop it. 

    AMZN/Stock – Someone sold 2,000 Jan $1,020 calls to some sucker for $1.55 is the real story!  

    FB/QC – No friggin' idea.  It seems to me that all these guys had a rough quarter but FB keeps pulling rabbits out of its ass so I wouldn't bet against them.  

    Gold is pretty unstable along with /SI.  Dollar over 95 again does the trick. 

    Markets holding up OK since Dollar is up 1% since yesterday.  Oil doing super just under $94.


  44. Phil any thoughts on GOOGL actually how the cards fall Last Thursday I added some more Apr4 800 callers to my holdings and sold them @ 10.30 Today worthless. GOOGL is a very margin incentive play but they possible will come up fast again. Down today 47$


  45. BTW that last Thursday was Yesterday just to correct the day


  46. Phil/UNG  yeah thats what I get for taking 6 weeks to sign up. haha


  47. QCmike 

    Re GILD  That play Phil mentioned I started 6 weeks ago with three different stocks, with the intention to make a conservative 24% in 52 weeks. Looking at GILD I purchased the stock for 88.85, 6 weeks ago. Stk is trading at 101 today so quite a difference. In six weeks I am up 15.3 %. Wish not to predict where I will be in an other 46 weeks.

    I publish my weekly rolls every Monday. 


  48. MSFT Bought Jan18 55 call for 4.55 and sold the Aug 50 put for 2.19  Now waiting for a recovery to sell calls.


  49. Phil/GreencoinX   The other bitcoin ETF – GBTC trades at a whopping +50% premium to the underlying price of the BC value.  Plus they take a 2% mngmnt fee – the cheapest way to trade BC is still directly.  The other ETF, ARKW buys shares of GBTC.  GBTC ratio is one share for 1/10 of BC.  Or, you can go solar, replace all your lights with led's, and buy a mining rig ($4000) and breakeven in about 12 months, depending on your power consumption.  Mining waaaay harder than it used to be.


  50. /NG flying back up already:

    GOOGL/Yodi – Pretty much what we expected, same as last Q:

    Submitted on 2015/01/29 at 11:46 am

    GOOGL/Lolo – I don't have any idea what they are doing.  They are kind of like GE – just doing tons of different things but GOOG is much more speculative, which could be good or bad.  With the Glass failure though, I think long is a bad idea at the moment but I sure wouldn't short them either. 

    Submitted on 2016/02/04 at 6:03 am

    GOOGL/Maya – I think the deeper look inside their "moonshot" programs spooked people with their big losses and no results.  Of course, that's why hardly any companies are willing to do R&D anymore so I'll be happy to buy GOOGL on a big sell-off ($600) because I LOVE R&D (why I like IBM and AAPL) as a long-term investor.

    If you click on the link, there are charts and graphs – nothing has changed – they are pricey here and ad-blocking software should be a much bigger concern to their investors than it seems to be.  

    GOOGL/Maya – Ad-blocking is a big concern:

    As Apple Ad Blocking Spreads, Wired Curbs Access To Ad-Block Users

     

    LOL Hanj!  

    GBTC/Hanj – GRNBF is not an ETF, it's an on-line bank that owns/controls GreenCoinX and simply has 60M of them as an asset so no friction cost of ownership is another nice feature but just silly speculation – the most interesting one out of dozens of them I wouldn't put a penny into.  Yes, mining is hard – it was hard in 1849 when tens of thousands of people headed west to mine for gold in the US and, you know what – none of them made any money either – but they did dig up a lot of ground and made the people selling the land and selling the mining equipment and maps very rich – so I prefer to stay on that side of the trade – the side that sells to the traders!  


  51. yodi 

     

    Thank you for the information


  52. So if your feeling like we are sitting on our hands today – how does Albert Edwards feel?!  :)  

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-22/albert-edwards-finally-blows-im-not-really-sure-how-much-more-i-can-take


  53. Hands/Latch – It's Friday!  I don't think we should work Monday's or Fridays and certainly not Mondays.  All we're doing is arbitrarily moving bits of paper around (seemingly at random) – certainly it's something the World can function without 3 days a week?  


  54. DHAKA (Reuters) – Bangladesh’s central bank was vulnerable to hackers because it did not have a firewall and used second-hand, $10 switches to network computers connected to the SWIFT global payment network, an investigator into one of the world’s biggest cyber heists said.<p>The shortcomings made it …


  55. Japan’s massive manufacturing sector just took a turn for the worse

    Activity levels across Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted sharply in April, adding to the prospect that the Bank of Japan may add to its massive monetary stimulus program as early as next week.<p>The Nikkei-Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) fell 1.1 points to 48.0 in …


  56. But its chairman reportedly stands to get a €20 million bonus<p>Volkswagen AG vlkay announced the biggest annual loss in its history and slashed its dividend to a few token cents after taking an $18 billion hit from the diesel emissions scandal.<p>Europe’s largest carmaker, which agreed on Thursday to …


  57. A group of physicists recently built the smallest engine ever created from just a single atom. Like any other engine it converts heat energy into movement – but it does so on a smaller scale than seen before.<p>The atom is trapped in a cone of electromagnetic energy and lasers are used to heat it up …


  58. WASHINGTON — For five years, congressional Republicans have taken out their anti-tax wrath on the Internal Revenue Service, cutting its budget by nearly $1 billion, reducing its staff by about 17,000, and even threatening to impeach its chief.<p>Now they say no one at the agency receives a bonus until …


  59. Uber Settlement Takes Customers For A Ride

    Uber reached a settlement with 385,000 drivers in California and Massachusetts. The lawsuit sought to characterize drivers as employees rather than freelancers. Drivers are clearly freelancers. They work when they want to, as much or as little as they want to, and drive their own vehicle. The case …


  60. Central bankers are going to destroy the “enfeebled” global economy, and cause chaos across the world, according to notorious perma-bear Albert Edwards.<p>Edwards, a strategist with Societe Generale is about as bearish as they come.<p>So far this year he has predicted that the US stock market will fall …


  61. The Conference Board sees the economy growing slowly over the rest of the year. Corporate earnings are down. Which will the stock market follow, asks Mark Hulbert.<p>Earnings recessions and economic downturns don’t always coincide<p>CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch)—Might a recession be averted after all? …


  62. Cuba has loosened a policy banning Cuban-born people from arriving by sea, allowing Carnival Corp. to go forward with the first U.S. cruise to the island in a half-century, the Cuban government and the Miami-based cruise liner announced Friday.<p>The company at first barred Cuban-born Americans from …


  63. Based on how Americans have been investing, it appears the average citizen really hates the stock market.<p>Tom Lee of Fundstrat laid out just how much, in a note to clients on Friday.<p>”Households have not been buying equities generally since 2007,” wrote Lee.<p>”This is evident on the chart on the left …


  64. Two hundred and forty years after his country ostentatiously tore up its membership card in the British Empire, the American president is traveling to London to warn the British not to do the same with theirs for Europe. It’s a bit rich, as some Brits would put it, but Barack Obama has not merely …


  65. LONDON (Reuters) – Investors withdrew $7.3 billion from stocks in the week to April 20, the largest outflows in nine weeks, while continuing to shovel money into corporate and emerging market debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) said on Friday.<p>The equity redemptions were led by $4.2 billion …


  66. (Reuters) – Caterpillar Inc. (CAT.N) lowered its 2016 sales and earnings outlook and posted a lower first-quarter net profit on Friday as revenues declined in the company’s construction, oil and gas, mining and rail business segments.<p>The company said it expects 2016 sales in a range of $40 billion …


  67. One of the loudest and most fruitless political disputes in Washington has been about climate change. If you’re even vaguely concerned about climate change, take note: The political climate itself may be changing. Capitalism to the rescue!<p>Many progressives consider climate change an existential …


  68. Almost exactly one year ago, we wrote “Mario Draghi, Collateral Scarcity, <b>And Why The ECB Will Soon Buy Corporate Bonds</b><b>.</b>” 11 month later, the ECB …


  69. He was meant to ask about race, but he mostly wandered around asking sexist questions about Hillary Clinton<p>On The O’Reilly Factor Thursday evening, host Bill O’Reilly sent roving “reporter” Jesse Watters into Harlem to demand African-Americans explain why their community overwhelmingly supported …


  70. <b>$270 Trillion In Total Investable Assets via Barry Ritholtz</b><p>The need for good money managers has never been greater. Total investable assets are …


  71. 0 0<p>Speculating what will cause our ultimate demise has been the stuff of science fiction for years—if it’s not aliens wiping out the human race, it’s …


  72. A rumor of The BoJ doing something moar (helping banks with NIRP loans) was the apparent catalyst for today’s epic USDJPY spike, but <b>the kindling was</b> …


  73. The pool of eligible corporate bonds is larger than most analysts were expecting, but a barrage of constraints may end up shrinking it considerably<p>ENLARGE<p>The European Central Bank dazzled credit markets on Thursday by announcing that it would purchase more corporate bonds than expected.<p>But a closer …


  74. All you need to know about Venezuela’s looming implosion

    Please like me. Picture: Getty Images<p>The headline at ZeroHedge back in January said it all. “This is what the death of a nation looks like”.<p>It now …


  75. If there’s one person qualified to tout the benefits of dining in the nude, it’s Seb Lyall.<p>The London restaurateur, known for opening some of the city’s most innovative dining concepts, eats his breakfast bare-bottomed each morning — assuming he’s not cooking with hot oil.<p>“It’s liberating,” he told …


  76. FOLD – I am going to try and sell some puts on this one.  Looking at the June 7 Ps for 60c or better for an entry.  Rare disease/Orphan Drug company looking for EU approval for their lead Fabry's Disease drug.  If one wants to buy a little stock, sell the May 8 Calls for 65c.  Nice little return for a few weeks.


  77. DIA June 171 Ps for 1.51….for a nice big decline in here….50 of them.


  78. SPY June 200 Ps…10 of them for 2.08….again, waterfall decline could start….


  79. GLD June 125 calls are about a $1.  10 of them….


  80. Have a nice weekend all….I will be checking in on these picks.  FOLD Stock filled at $7.40 with a covered call.  Puts are sitting for a 60c ask.


  81. BMRN moving….damn.  SNY may be interested…or maybe it was my post earlier today!


  82. Few BMRN May 100/105 BCS for $1.1.


  83. Nice recovery by the indexes into the close – even the Nasdaq only down 0.6% now.  

    Oil drifting lower and /NG rejected at $2.40 and /RB rejected at $1.55 but a pretty strong day with the Dollar up over 95 again. 

    All done with the portfolios – let me know if I missed anything:

    Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP):  Here's our 4/7 review, we're up 45.4 at $145,370 and that's up and up a very nice $20,000 in the past two weeks as we made some very good adjustments and, even better, LABU is deep in the money and will pay us $4,000 but only shows net -$250, so the portfolio is actually $4,250 better off than it shows.  

    We're only using $77,000 in margin (1/4), so we're well-positions to be flexible moving forward and we're not going to add hedges into the weekend – we'll just see how next week goes.  

    Butterfly Portfolio Update:  Here's our 4/12 update.  We jumped to +163.1% since then as the falling flat market is perfect for our Be The House strategies.  $263,052.50 and it's a very low-margin strategy, using just $98,250 (20%) for our current positions.  

    As we discussed earlier – we took a hit on MSFT but other stuff did better and we're $18,000 better off in 10 days, so nothing to complain about and this portfolio is self-hedging – though it may lose $18,000 as fast as it gained it, the point is that it does what it's supposed to do, which is drop CASH!!! to the bottom line month after month – and we have 88% cash – in fact.  

    Short-Term Portfolio Update (STP):  Here's our 4/8 review.  At this point, the STP is more like a $440,000 pile of cash on the side for the LTP.  That's really great is it's up 381.7% at $481,727 and we're only using $55,300 in margin to maintain these positions so, as I said, it's pretty much just a cash pile with a couple of hedges.  We're actually up $7,000 in 3 weeks and we shouldn't be so I do think we have to take a hard look at this portfolio and find a way to get more bearish – or we may not be protecting the LTP enough on the way back down (if we ever do go down).  

    This means we can have lots of fun playing late earnings in May! 

    Long-Term Portfolio Update (LTP):  Here's our 4/8 review.  Here's our 4/12 review, Part 2.  Wow, up 93.7% at $968,663 is almost a double in it's own right and we've powered up $83,000 in 10 days on this rally we've been complaining about.  surprise  It's been a hell of a bull market and all those materials plays we stuck with (and doubled down) are starting to pay off like gangbusters.  Of course, we expect the LTP to do the best when the market is going up – it's 100% bullish.  

    The problem is we have so many positions, these reviews are getting to be a real pain.  I had wanted to cut a lot more when we did the review but I liked them so much I couldn't.  Of course, now that we've gained $80,000 in two weeks – I'm glad we didn't cut more but jeeze, how long can this keep going?  

    So, overall, we're doing great and, as usual, I'd be happier cashing in and starting from scratch but I do love pretty much all of the remaining positions after two months of trying to cut back.  This is the curse of the value investor – it's not like there are many stocks I like better than I could replace these with so, by default – we stick with many of our longs, even after they've made huge gains.


  84. Phil/GRNBF – Their CEO has certainly done well for himself – a real wheeler dealer.  I just don't see how GRNBF or anything whose primary asset is digicurrency can get any type of regulatory blessing with the price of its major asset fluctuating so much.  Talk about possible bet cap violations – ha.

    http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/its-the-stock-price-stupid-6398325


  85. SRPT….Monday in front of the FDA.  I think they FAIL!  Puts are way expensive and one can drive a truck through the Bid / Ask, but a Put spread could be found if you can get it.  I am buying a few $10 May Ps for $2.


  86. Well that was as dull a day as expected.  

    Have a great weekend, 

    - Phil


  87. Damn, climate change could actually have a beneficial impact:

    http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/04/rising-carbon-dioxide-levels-could-actually-help-reduce-water-scarcity/

    Climate change's effects on crops are complex, with water availability, average temperature, frequency of temperature extremes, and CO2 fertilization all influencing overall productivity. Figuring out the ultimate impact will require accounting for all these influences. The new study provides some numbers on how some of the different factors interact. It suggests that elevated CO2 concentrations could partially offset global yield losses and reduce agricultural water usage by 4 to 17 percent.

    Of course, by then water might not be a problem for areas like Miami which would be actually under water.


  88. Humans rule.

    http://www.gizmag.com/metal-foam-bullets/42731/?li_source=LI&li_medium=default-widget

    We keep on making such cool stuff.  This would be awesome to use to make armor cars.  


  89. From Ron Baron's interview in Barron's

    ~~What is your best idea?

     "Tesla Motors  [TSLA]. In five years, they said they’ll do 500,000 cars a year. [Tesla is guiding for sales of 80,000 to 90,000 cars this year.] At 500,000 cars a year, that business should be doing $35 billion to $40 billion of annualized revenues and have an operating profit of $6 billion to $7 billion a year. I think that would be worth 20, 25, 30 times earnings. That makes it a $120 billion to $130 billion business now selling for $30 billion. So that’s a quadruple in five years. This can be the best, largest car company. Toyota does 10 million cars a year; Volkswagen, almost 10 million; General Motors, 9.8 million. Tesla is a better manufacturer. Their new car will cost $35,000 to $50,000 instead of $100,000. In one week, they took 325,000 orders with people putting down more than $1,000 each for a car that won’t even begin delivery until late 2017."

    Phil, you've already debunked this scenario so nothing more I could add.  But Ron, do you really think that a company doing 120-130 billion in revenue in the car business (highly doubtful forecast) will be selling for 20-30 times earnings ?  Talk about pie in the sky !   We'll see.


  90. Foam/Burr – Way cool!  

    TSLA/Albo – Aside from pie in the sky wishing, math seems to be a problem for Ron as 500,000 $35,000 cars is $17.5Bn, not $35Bn – he's extrapolating the current car prices to 500,000 cars while, at the same time, talking about how TSLA's new cars will sell because they are half the price.  So, right away we know he's an idiot.  Even if we assume TSLA averages $50,000 per car that's $25Bn and $6Bn would be dropping 24% to the bottom line – again, he's a moron because GOOGL drops 21% to the bottom line and AAPL 23% and those are two of the World's most profitable companies per employee.

    And, of course, we're just ignoring the fact that TSLA does not, in fact, make any money at all selling 50,000 after being in business 13 years yet, just 3 years from now – they will have it all figured out?  

    Of course, he's talking his book, as he owns 1.3M shares of TSLA at $218 ($283M) but it's really just 1% of his $25Bn fund – so I don't know why he'd want to talk like a fool to protect a relatively small stake.  He also bought 24% of MANU when they floated – that's not working out too well either.  


  91. Oh, and by the way, TM makes 20M cars a year and makes $18Bn and isn't Fremont an old Toyota plant that Tesla is using?  So the underlying premise of Tesla bulls is, even though major automakers have far more experience, much more capital, many more existing staff and hundreds of similar plants with trained workers who could hit the ground running on EVs – they have a strategy to continue making cars that net $900 rather than magical $35,000 electric cars that make $12,000 in profit per car?  Or perhaps (using Occam's razor), Musk is full of crap, his projections are BS and anyone who actually manufactures cars for a living knows it?

    Why do people want to believe this story so badly?  Electric cars, even with subsidies – are not profitable to make at this stage in human history.  We should make them because it's good for the environment but the paltry 200,000 car allowance given by the Government isn't really encouraging anyone to mass-produce electric cars because there's just no money in making them.  

    Musk doesn't care whether electric cars make money, he cares whether he can jack up the price of his 35M shares of TSLA stock past $250 ($8.75Bn) until he can find an excuse to cash in $2Bn (like a Mars project he only actually puts $100M into) before the Ponzi scheme of selling unprofitable cars runs aground (see Delorean).

    FYI:

    The Delorean Motor Company (DMC) is an American automobile manufacturer formed by automobile industry executive John DeLorean in 1975.[1] It is remembered for the one model it produced — the distinctive stainless steel DeLorean DMC-12 sports car featuring gull-wing doors—and for its brief and turbulent history, ending inreceivership and bankruptcy in 1982. Near the end, in a desperate attempt to raise the funds his company needed to survive, John DeLorean was filmed appearing to accept money to take part in drug trafficking, but was subsequently acquitted of charges brought against him on the basis of entrapment.[2]

     

    John DeLorean founded the DeLorean Motor Company in Detroit, Michigan on October 24, 1975. He was already well known in the automobile industry as a capable engineer, business innovator, and youngest person to become a General Motors (GM) executive. Investment capital came primarily in the form of business loans from the Bank of America and from the formation of partnerships and private investment from select parties, including The Tonight Show host Johnny Carson and entertainers Roy Clark and Sammy Davis, Jr.. Money was also gained later through a dealer investment program in which those dealerships offering DeLorean's cars for sale were made shareholders in the company.

    DeLorean also sought lucrative incentives from various government and economic organizations to pay for constructing the company's automobile manufacturing facilities. To gain these, he looked to build his first factory in a country or area where unemployment was particularly high. One candidate was Ireland, although the country's then Minister for Industry and CommerceDesmond O'Malley, decided not to support the project. A deal in Puerto Rico was about to be agreed when DeLorean took up a last-minute offer from Northern Ireland's Industrial Development Board. Besides taking some early seed capital from Hollywood stars Sammy Davis Jr. and Johnny Carson, DeLorean Motor Company relied on the British government for about $120 million of its $200 million startup costs according to the newspaper The Times. The British government was very keen to create jobs in Northern Ireland to reduce sectarian violence by reducing unemployment. As part of this offer, DeLorean was apparently under the impression that the British government would provide his company with Export Credit financing. This would provide a loan of 80% of the wholesale cost of the vehicles (US$20,000) upon completion and delivery for shipping.

    Unit production was scheduled to begin in 1979, but engineering delays and budget overruns caused the assembly lines to start only in early 1981. Workers at the factory were generally inexperienced; many never had jobs before joining DMC. This may have contributed to the reported quality issues attributed to the early production vehicles and the subsequent establishment of Quality Assurance Centers (QAC) located at various delivery locations. QACs were set up in CaliforniaNew Jersey and Michigan where some of the quality issues were to be addressed and resolved before delivery to dealerships. Some of the issues related to the fitting of body panels, higher-output alternators, and gullwing door adjustments.

    Does any of this sound familiar?  Hello…. McFly???  

    The lack of demand, cost overruns, and unfavorable exchange rates began to take their toll on DMC's cash flow in late 1981. The company had estimated its break-even point to be between 10,000 and 12,000 units, but sales were only around 6,000. In response to the income shortfall, a restructuring plan was devised where a new "DeLorean Motors Holding Company" would be formed, which in turn would have become corporate parent to DMC and each of its subsidiaries: DeLorean Motor Cars Limited (manufacturer), DeLorean Motor Cars of America (distributor in the U.S.) and DeLorean Research Partnership (a research and development company). In January 1982, due to United States Securities and Exchange Commission questions about the company's viability, the company was forced to cancel the stock issue for the holding company that DeLorean had hoped would raise about $27 million.

    In the end, sufficient funds could not be raised to keep the company alive. DMC went bankrupt in 1982, taking with it 2,500 jobs and over $100 million in investments. The British government attempted to revive some usable remnants of the manufacturing facility without success, and the Dunmurry factory was closed. DeLorean himself retired in New Jersey, and the dream with which he had mesmerized Britain's Labour government, of industry rising out of the ashes of Northern Ireland's sectarian conflict, was shattered. He claimed that the DMCL was deliberately closed for political reasons, and at the time of closing was a solidly viable company with millions of dollars in the bank and two years of dealer orders on the books.

    Here's a fun list:  Defunct US Auto Manufacturers – here are just the As:

    Here's a list of surviving ones:  F, GM 

     


  92. Phil – counterpoint to the Federal Reserve Video you posted above, from PragCap:

    Debunking “The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind”


  93. Hi Phil,

    It's been a long time away from this group for me. I lurked for a few years, but was focused on things other than investments for quite a while (good things, mostly), but realized that I needed to become more  active with my assets. I subscribed to your Top Trades for a few months and made enough to pay for  several years of a basic PSW membership, so here I am!  I will be trying to get back up to speed over the next few weeks, so forgive me if I ask about things you've covered recently.  The volume of material you put out is astounding and I can barely keep up with each day's posts, much less read back for weeks.

    Anyway, my first question is about IRA accounts.  I have a lot of assets in IRAs, so the most I can do is cash-covered puts and spreads. I want these assets to be somewhat less volatile than my main investment account, but still want to focus on "being the house".  So I have some outright high-yield stock positions (STWD, NLY), some covered calls (FTR and WPZ) and some of your recommended spreads (UCO, LABU, UNG). My main question is about calendar spreads as a higher-leverage covered call proxy. Owning Jan 17 calls in AAPL, INTC, BAC, RRD and STX and selling monthly ATM calls against them.  Seems like a high-probability and good  return (except for the occassional bump like STX recently).  How would  you recommend structuring an IRA portfolio?


  94. PHIL

     I cannot find the position on RIG sorry, would you please post.

     

    Thanks for your help

     

    phil 
    April 22nd, 2016 at 3:47 pm

    RIG/Lunar – I was going over the LTP and forgot what a big bet we still have on RIG.  Every time I run the numbers I end up deciding to stick with them.  BHI, on the other hand is one of the most mispriced stocks I've ever seen – I've banged that table into splinters.


  95. Pharm Hi, your FOLD play a bit confusing sell Jun put and May call OK but which covered call do you hold or play do you start with Jan18 3/10 at 2.65 ?


  96. Deano – Biggest Scam in History – The debunk blog post you linked to is essentially correct in the selected items he discusses in a rudimentary fashion. However one might not want to commit a fallacy of composition or division vis. all or nothing? Just because he debunks a part of the "theory", doesnt disprove any other potential salient points made in the "theory".  We tend to avoid throwing out the baby with the bathwater.  Out.


  97. Phil – Speaking of scams – TESLA – Posted up a missive on Friday at SA, Illene posted my latest here – http://www.philstockworld.com/2016/04/24/tesla-the-prestige/&nbsp;

    In the comments section the Teslarians rained down on my head.  Like Freddie Blassie, I swatted em like flys, and discovered they have a anthem even… https://youtu.be/b1LmuCf3aJY

    In denial, which ain't a river, one guy just kept repeating over and over that I had claimed they were losing a barrel of money on each car, when I clearly had not, and all he had to do was stop and actually read what I had wrote.  

    He was so mentally poor, he could not pay attention, so I gave him a smack down: "An excessively steady diet of parrot food and ritalin are obviously not helping."  SA thought police deemed it a personal attack and deleted it. All I can say is, what a bunch of ADD, sound byte and elevator version afflicted cultists, on par with PO crowd.

    The Tesla cult is in denial of the facts, what else would one expect from such rabid acolytes. Probably one and the same as the peak oil theorists, birds of a feather you know.

    These cultists become apoplectic when one dare question their gospel intoning the sanctity of King Musk.  After a mass of idiotic vitriol, I finally posted this for their mass consumption…

    Cognitive biases can make one allergic to facts at variance with one's deeply held beliefs. From our experience, belief, hope and irrational blind faith are the commodities or currency of houses of worship and cults.

    Cultists tend to keep chanting or repeating, over and over, a mantra which is based in their own belief system. That faith based mantra may seem perfectly clear to the cultist, and yet be quite illogical to all others as it is clearly not fact based.

    Seeing the light from either side,  there is not enough time in the day to waste,  going in circles with irrational cultists.  We know Jonestown did not end well, the lesson, don't blindly follow and don't drink the kool-aid.

    This is not an argument, as anyone who is not blinded by the fog of bias can see, read and understand, both Montana Skeptic and I have empirically proven our points beyond a shadow of a doubt.

    Therefore, this discussion merits no further effort on my part as its continuance would constitute beating a dead horse in a circle.  So I bid you adieu, wish you luck, and shall leave you where you are. Good day. 

    Out.


  98. Counterpoints/Deano – Mostly what Naybob said – of course it's tilted, "fair and balanced" views don't get traction so almost any decent content tends to have a bias – I just like stuff that makes good points and the fact that this one gets conversations going is useful.  Cullen's a good guy but he manages money and has skin in this game and you score points with Top 1% clients when you debunk Socialist claptrap that makes it seem like the Financial system is rigged to transfer money from the Bottom 99% to the Top 1%.

    To say the banking system doesn't create money is true but disingenuous – the Fed is not really a bank and it does create money (in several ways).  Now, clearly Cullen knows this so why would he make such a blatantly misleading statement to "debunk" the video?  The next part really pisses me off, when people say "the National Debt isn't so bad because we owe it to ourselves."  That's idiotic.  If my lifestyle is too extreme and I pile up debts and then I pay off those debts, not with my earnings but by borrowing money from my Mom and Dad and brothers and sisters and my kids and I give them all IOUs – how exactly are those an asset if I can no longer afford to pay the debt without default or seriously devaluing the currency I'm paying them back with?  The debt is an asset???  Well, my wife likes to think so when she shops!  cheeky

    Hola Jet!  Wow, that's a big question but it sounds like you have a decent mix.  Since the IRA is tax-advantaged, 10% is a fantastic annual return (same as 15% taxed) so there's no reason to take a lot of risks.  I still prefer our LTP or Butterfly strategy (if your broker considers the short puts and calls covered by the longs – butterfly plays are great for IRAs) as the key is to be low-risk and let sold premium do the work for you.  

    Also, with IRAs – you may want to consider the fact that you can sell short put legs in your regular portfolio and take your tax-deductible losses there on a downturn while reaping profits in the IRA.

    RIG/QC – See the review post, it's in the LTP, under R, between OIH and SLW.

    TSLA/Naybob – Yep, they went nuts on me a few weeks ago when I dared to call TSLA a short at $250.  I wish people defended AAPL with such vigor when it goes down.  

    OK – let's move comments to the new post (Portfolio Review) – thanks!  


  99. Thanks Phil

    RIG/QC