Courtesy of Mish.
New accounting rules show Chicago has understated its pension liabilities by $11.5 billion.
At the end of 2015 the stated liability was $7.1 billion. Today it’s $18.6 billion. That’s a jump in net liabilities of 168%.
Mayor Rahm Emanuel has hopes pinned on union concessions and help from the state legislature. Neither is likely.
Out of Money in 10 Years
Bloomberg reports Chicago’s Pension-Fund Troubles Just Became $11.5 Billion Bigger.
Thanks to the defeat of the city’s retirement-fund overhaul by the Illinois Supreme Court and new accounting rules, Chicago’s so-called net pension liability to its Municipal Employees’ Annuity and Benefit Fund soared to $18.6 billion by the end of 2015 from $7.1 billion a year earlier, according to an annual report presented to the fund’s board on Thursday. The fund serves some 70,000 workers and retirees.
Decisions that are now adding hundreds of millions of dollars to its annual bills have left Chicago with a lower credit rating than any big U.S. city but once-bankrupt Detroit.
The latest estimate for the municipal fund, one of Chicago’s four pensions, will add to what had been an unfunded liability estimated at $20 billion.
A key driver was the court ruling striking down Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s plan that cut benefits and boosted city and employee contributions. Without it in place, the fund is now set to run out of money within 10 years.
That triggered another change. New accounting rules, adopted to keep governments from using overly optimistic investment-return forecasts to mask the scale of their liabilities, require them to use more modest assumptions once pension plans go broke. As a result, the reported liabilities jump.
Under the traditional way of estimating the municipal fund’s obligations, which is how annual contributions are set, the shortfall rose to $9.9 billion as of Dec. 31, based on market value of its assets, according to the actuaries report. That’s up from $7.1 billion a year earlier. The pension is only 32 percent funded — meaning it has 32 cents for every dollar it owes — compared to 42 percent last year, according to the actuaries.
“Very Good Discussions”
Emanuel claims to have “very good discussions” with the unions. That means one of two things.
- Emanuel’s mind has gone to mush.
- Emanuel is telling the unions he will hike taxes again, and again, and again.
In retrospect, those are the same thing.
