Courtesy of Mish.
Today, Nate Silver confessed that he screwed up.
Well, sort of.
While Silver admitted an error, he also tried to sweep it under the rug as a once in a lifetime event.
Nate Silver says How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump.
The title is perfect. Perhaps Silver should have stopped there. He goes on to say …
I also wonder if there’s been too much #datajournalist self-flagellation. Trump is one of the most astonishing stories in American political history. If you really expected the Republican front-runner to be bragging about the size of his anatomy in a debate, or to be spending his first week as the presumptive nominee feuding with the Republican speaker of the House and embroiled in a controversy over a tweet about a taco salad, then more power to you.
The FiveThirtyEight “polls-only” model has correctly predicted the winner in 52 of 57 (91 percent) primaries and caucuses so far in 2016, and our related “polls-plus” model has gone 51-for-57 (89 percent). Furthermore, the forecasts have been well-calibrated, meaning that upsets have occurred about as often as they’re supposed to but not more often.
Please stop the self-congratulations. Nate, please tell us how the hell you put Indiana in the “win” column.
Silver was wrong on Indiana every step up the way with poll after poll after poll after poll projecting Cruz would win.
On April 30, “Silver’s Secret Sauce” projected Cruz had a 65% chance of winning Indiana. On May 1, I reported Silver Flushes Secret Sauce Down Toilet, Now Projects Trump has 69% Chance.
