Courtesy of Mish.
In the wake of a construction report that was far far weaker that it looked even with upward revisions, the Atlanta Fed GDFPNow Model for second quarter GDP dipped 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%.
Rate hike odds for June were flat at 22.5%, but July hike odds dipped a bit to 57.6%.
Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — June 1, 2016
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on June 1, down from 2.9 percent on May 31. After this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the forecast for real residential investment growth decreased from 7.9 percent to 4.2 percent, the forecast for real nonresidential structures investment growth decreased from -2.8 percent to -6.5 percent, and the forecast for real government spending growth decreased from 1.2 percent to 0.4 percent.”
June Rate Hike Odds
July Rate Hike Odds
