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Sunday, February 15, 2026

More Nate Silver Mathematical Nonsense, This Time on Hillary’s Odds

Courtesy of Mish.

I decided to check on Nate Silver’s California Primary Predictions, this time on the Democratic side.

Once again I find his analysis, and even his math absurd.

Polls-Plus Primary Odds

Nate Silver California 2016-06-03A

California Polls

Nate Silver California 2016-06-03

Somehow Silver magically assign 92% odds of Clinton winning even though recent trends are swinging heavily towards Bernie Sanders. Clinton is still in the lead, but she holds a mere 1 percentage point advantage in the most recent poll.

It’s also ludicrous for Silver to post Sanders’ polling average at 42.9%.


Continue reading here…

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