Courtesy of Mish.
Five of the last eight polls taken on Brexit were in favor of “leave”, two in favor of “remain”, and one was neutral.
In the wake of those polls, odds on Brexit have shifted. But “remain is still heavily favored”.
Did the odds shift enough?
Betfair 28% Leave
The Financial Times reports Betting Odds Tilt Towards Brexit.
Following a raft of new opinion polls swinging towards ‘Leave’, the betting markets are the latest to send jitters to the UK’s pro-EU camp.
The probability of a “Brexit” vote has increased to 28 per cent according to bookmakers Betfair – a jump from 19 per cent seen at the end of May.
Although the Remain camp is still in a comfortable lead with a 72 per cent chance of victory, the latest set of odds show “the outers have gained momentum” said Betfair.
A survey of Daily Telegraph subscribers, carried out by the newspaper, showed 69 per cent of its 19,000 readers, intended to vote ‘Leave’.
Ladbroke 32% Leave
The Week reports Brexit Betting Odds Narrow as Remain’s Economic Lead Withers
A poll by Sir Lynton Crosby shows In camp’s lead on the economy has fallen from 21 to just eight points.
Two recent polls – including, crucially, a telephone survey for the first time – have put the Leave campaign in front. In response, bookmakers are repricing bets on Brexit, especially as the vast majority of money being gambled is for an Out vote.
Coral is now offering 7-4 on Leave, down from 5-2, says the Daily Express, as 90 per cent of bets in recent days have been on a Brexit.
Ladbrokes’s referendum tracker has the chances of a Leave victory at 32 per cent, up from 27 per cent.
This means that Remain is still a clear favourite and in most places it remains odds-on, but bookies’ confidence is being eroded.
Elsewhere, the latest weekly survey conducted by respected analyst Sir Lynton Crosby shows Remain still has a lead, but this has fallen to just one point at 48 to 47 per cent among those who will definitely vote.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Crosby says Remain is seen as best for UK economic prospects, ahead by 45 to 37 per cent. But it is worth noting that as recently as 23 May, its vote share on this issue was 54 per cent and its advantage 21 points.
Another poll earlier this month by Ipsos Mori found seven in ten voters believe they would be no worse off five years after a vote to leave the EU.
A new poll by Opinium for The Observer put Leave ahead on 43 to 40 per cent, while a YouGov poll for ITV will show it having a lead of four points on 45 to 41 per cent. A poll of the most recent six polls has shown Remain’s long-term lead narrowing markedly to just two points, on 51 to 49 per cent, the FT says.
Bookie Confidence
