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Friday, February 13, 2026

US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?

Courtesy of Mish.

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey.

The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.

Is it different this time?

ISI Tax Receipts

I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI.

I added the recession bars and comments.

Each month, Evercore conducts a State Tax Receipts Survey across 16 states capturing 64% of the US population.

Although 2Q likely up vs 1Q, perhaps not as much as some are hoping as per tax receipts

Evercore ISI tax data pic.twitter.com/0f5IphfIfR

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 8, 2016

Unlike Sonders, I am not willing to state second GDP quarter will likely be up vs. first quarter.


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