Courtesy of Mish.
Every month the New York Fed conducts a Survey of Consumer Spending Expectations covering three broad categories: inflation, labor market and household finance.
The SCE contains monthly insight about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, education and medical care to change over time. It also provides Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth, as well as their expectations about future spending and access to credit. Finally, the SCE provides measures of uncertainty in expectations for the main outcomes of interest.
Expectations are available by age, income, education, numeracy and geography.
Let’s take a look at some of the details, plus a chart that I created from their Excel spreadsheet.
Inflation, Labor Market, Finance
Inflation expectations are complete nonsense. The labor market view is likely backward looking. Respondents expect raises of about two percent despite the fact that wage growth has been averaging more than that.
The Fed left off what I believe is the most important data series: Spending expectations.
