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Sunday, February 22, 2026

7 of Last 9 Recessions Started in Quarters with Positive GDP

Courtesy of Mish.

Think recessions begin when GDP is negative? Think 2 quarters of negative growth are required to start a recession?

If you believe either of those, you are wrong.

The NBER is the official arbiter of recessions in the US. Here’s a list of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contraction Dates by the NBER.

Using start dates I created the following chart.

Recession Starting Dates vs. GDP

Recessions Starting with Positive GDP

NBER FAQs

The NBER has a list of Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions that inquiring minds may wish to read. This is a partial list:


Continue reading here…

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