Courtesy of Mish.
Four new polls show comedian Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S) ahead of prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party (PD) were an election held today.
The next election will be no later than May 23, 2018. Renzi promised to step down if he fails a constitutional reform referendum later this year.
The reform referendum will likely be held no later than this October.
Beppe Grillo – Comedian Founder of Five Star Movement
Renzi Rocked Yet Again
Please consider Renzi Rocked as Five Star Surges in Polls.
The populist Five Star Movement has emerged as Italy’s leading political party, overtaking Matteo Renzi’s ruling Democratic party (PD) in four separate opinion polls that have exposed the growing vulnerability of the country’s centre-left prime minister.
The primacy of the Five Star Movement, which is led by the sardonic comedian Beppe Grillo and has called for a referendum on ditching the euro, reflects a shift in public opinion against Mr Renzi that will heighten fears of a return to political instability and uncertainty in the single currency’s third largest economy.
“A government collapse is more than just a possibility, it is a scenario that we are looking at very closely,” said Federico Santi, an analyst at the Eurasia Group consultancy. “The trend has been clearly bad for the ruling party and favourable to the Five Star Movement, driven by issues — like migration, the banking troubles and corruption scandals — that are not going to go away. It’s hard to see what it could take for Renzi and the PD to make a comeback at this point.”
According to polls released on Wednesday by Ipsos, the Five Star Movement is supported by 30.6 per cent of Italians, compared with 29.8 per cent for the PD. Similar polls in January had Mr Renzi’s party leading the Five Star Movement by nearly six percentage points. In the 2014 European elections, shortly after Mr Renzi took office, the PD defeated the Five Star Movement by nearly 20 percentage points.
Three other surveys taken after the Brexit vote also showed the Five Star Movement ahead, with the next national elections due in early 2018.
One by Demos released on July 1 showed the party ahead by a margin of 32.3 per cent to 30.2 per cent over Mr Renzi’s PD. Others by Euromedia and EMG showed the Five Star Movement with narrower leads of 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points. Another poll showed the Democratic party hanging on to a narrow lead.
The polls look even darker for Mr Renzi if the likelihood of a run-off between the two largest parties — which is called for under Italy’s new electoral law if no party exceeds 40 per cent — is taken into account. In those scenarios, the Five Star Movement would defeat the PD by as much as ten percentage points, as right-wing voters would coalesce around the protest party.
Beneath the surface, there is increasing talk of what might happen should his efforts fail. Most likely, said Mr Santi, a technocratic government would have to take charge, rather than a quick move to fresh elections. But no clear candidate has yet emerged who would take the reins.
Credibility of the Italian Political Class at Stake.
