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Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Election Forecast Silliness

Courtesy of Mish.

In less than a month, Nate Silver’s 2016 Presidential Election Forecast has jumped wildly.

Odds of Donal Trump winning went from 19.7% on June 29 to 47.0%. on July 24.

On July 22, I received an email from a Political oddsmaker who stated Hillary Clinton had a 74% chance of winning.

The above forecast and Silver’s June projections were ridiculous.

Online Gambling says Election Odds: Clinton v. Trump is anything but conventional.

In that article Political oddsmaker Larry Josephson projects

  • Hillary had a 74% chance of winning.
  • Trump has 49/50 odds (50.5 %) that Donald Trump wins the swing state of Ohio.
  • Clinton has 1/1 (50%) chance of winning Florida.

I find that parlay ridiculous. Hillary does not have a 74% chance of winning if Trump carries Ohio and Florida.

I will hand them one thing, the forecast was “unconventional”.  But unconventional and reasonable are not the same thing.


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