Courtesy of Mish.
In less than a month, Nate Silver’s 2016 Presidential Election Forecast has jumped wildly.
Odds of Donal Trump winning went from 19.7% on June 29 to 47.0%. on July 24.
On July 22, I received an email from a Political oddsmaker who stated Hillary Clinton had a 74% chance of winning.
The above forecast and Silver’s June projections were ridiculous.
Online Gambling says Election Odds: Clinton v. Trump is anything but conventional.
In that article Political oddsmaker Larry Josephson projects
- Hillary had a 74% chance of winning.
- Trump has 49/50 odds (50.5 %) that Donald Trump wins the swing state of Ohio.
- Clinton has 1/1 (50%) chance of winning Florida.
I find that parlay ridiculous. Hillary does not have a 74% chance of winning if Trump carries Ohio and Florida.
I will hand them one thing, the forecast was “unconventional”. But unconventional and reasonable are not the same thing.


