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Monday Market Madness – New Highs Amid More Turmoil

What will it take to stop this market?

Like Rasputin, the market has been Poisoned (by bad earnings), Shot (by Brexit), Stabbed (by negative economic reports including 50% reductions in GDP forecasts) and is clearly Drowning in debt – yet it will not die!!!  What is up with that?  Not even the threat of Donald Trump becoming President of the United States is enough to spook the bulls – so far.

This morning the Asian markets were flying, led by Japan gaining 2.5% off the strong US jobs report that led to a strong Dollar and a weak Yen, which makes all the Japanese exporters happy, for as long as that lasts, anyway.  Also lifting the markets are fresh rumors of an OPEC production cut, which had oil (/CL) hitting $42.50 along with $45 on Brent (/BZ) this morning and had us getting back on the Futures shorts in our Live Member Chat Room earlier

We're also shorting the Futures at Dow (/YM) 18,500, S&P (/ES) 2,180, Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,800, Russell (/TF) 1,230 and Nikkei (/NKD) 16,700 but only if 3 of 5 cross under in which case we short the next one to cross and that's then confirmed by the 5th cross under and then we stop out if ANY of them cross back over – very simple and it stops you from losing much money while letting a winner run wild.

If you are bullish you can play it the other way but I'm not and neither are:

  • Stan Druckenmiller (May 4th at the Ira Sohn Conference): “Get out of the stock market.”
  • George Soros (June 9th, as reported in the Wall Street Journal): “The billionaire hedge fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.”
  • Carl Icahn (June 9th, on CNBC): “I don’t think you can have (near) zero interest rates for much longer without having these bubbles explode on you” while also saying it’s difficult to assess when exactly that might occur.
  • Jeff Gundlach (last Friday, in an interview with Reuters): “Sell everything. Nothing here looks good.”
  • Bill Gross (in his monthly investment letter, released last week): “I don’t like bonds. I don’t like most stocks. I don’t like private equity.”

Still, so far, so wrong but this runaway market has blasted our bullish Long-Term Portfolio to 113% gains while our Options Opportunity Portfolio, which turns one year-old this very day, is up 81.3% – so our cautious outlook isn't killing us and we are well-hedged for a potential downturn – if such a thing is even possible anymore. 

We still have plenty of earnings reports to play with but, so far, not only have the 2nd quarter earnings been down 3.5% from last year (when the S&P was at 2,100 and collapsed to 1,850 in August), but it's projected to be down 1.7% in Q3 led, of course, by the energy sector.  

None of this matters, of course, as long as the free money keeps flowing and companies are able to buy back their own stock, reducing the share count that their lower earnings are being divided by to give investors the impression that all is well.  Because, after all, it's all about the way things look on the surface in this very superficial decade, isn't it?  In reality (and, believe me, you DON'T want to go there) actual S&P earnings growth has slipped from a 6% rate at the start of the year to -0.3% as of the August 5th measure.  BUYBUYBUY???

This is MADNESS folks, when a market doesn't make sense, I feel better staying on the sidelines than "giving up" and playing the trend and, given the nightmare we had last August, when the Dow fell 2,000 points in 5 days – you'll have to forgive me for continuing to be a little cautious – even as we put on new highs.  

This is the last big week for earnings and, now that we've gotten plenty of sector reports, we can look for potential winners and losers to play with – certainly we have plenty of cash in our portfolios – we may as well put some of it to work:

It's a very light data week until Friday's Retail Sales Report, so we'll be concentrating on earnings.  I'll be live on the floor of the Nasdaq this morning for an interview at 10am and here's a quick preview of Nasdaq stuff I hope to discuss, though I think we only have 8 minutes!  

Hedging:  The Nasdaq 3x Ultra-Short (SQQQ) has been devastated by this rally – so it makes a wonderful hedge with the Nasdaq at 1999 highs (5,200).  A 5% pullback in the Nasdaq would blast SQQQ up 15% from $14.31 to $16.45 and $18.60 would be the result of a 10% drop which means we can hedge with:

  • Buy 20 SQQQ Jan $15 calls for $1.70 ($3,400)
  • Sell 20 SQQQ Jan $23 calls for 0.70 ($1,400) 
  • Sell 5 GILD 2018 $60 puts for $4 ($2,000) 

Needless to say, we like GILD and would love to own 500 shares for a 25% discount at $60 ($30,000).  You can sell puts on any stock you REALLY would like to own and the net of this spread becomes $0 while the upside potential at $23 on SQQQ is $16,000, so we're picking up $16,000 worth of crash protection in exchange for promising to buy GILD for a 25% discount – not a bad deal!  

BioTech:  GILD is our favorite pharma value and we'd also use the same short 2018 $60 puts to play the 3x Ultra Long Biotech ETF (LABU), which is already our very successful Top Trade for the 2nd Half of 2016 (see our Weekend Review).  As a new trade, we like:

  • Sell 5 GILD 2018 $60 puts for $4 ($2,000)
  • Buy 10 LABU March $35 calls for $10 ($10,000)
  • Sell 10 LABU Dec $50 calls for $7.50 ($7,500) 

That spread nets out at $500 but returns $15,000+ at $50 or better in December and you have until March to keep making money if the trend is in your favor.  We're going to make this a PSW Top Trade Alert so we'll be keeping an eye on it going forward.  December options expirations are only 130 days away and making a $14,500 return on cash would be a nice 2,900% return in just over 4 months – not too shabby!  

Nasdaq short:  Our favorite stocks to short on the Nasdaq at the moment are Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) along with Google (GOOGL) at $800.  GOOGL is simply ahead of itself and TSLA is too crazy to play but AMZN is getting interesting as, just this weekend, Japanese anti-trust regulators raided their offices "on suspicion of pressuring retailers to offer products with more favorable conditions than rival sites." 

That's just the cherry on top of our shorting premise with AMZN trading at $765, which is a ridiculous $363Bn market cap or roughly 200 times their expected earnings of less than $2Bn.  It's taken them $107Bn in sales in 2015 to make $600M so, as a maturing company, let's say they grow into that $400Bn(ish) market cap with a generous p/e of 25 – that would require $16Bn in profits – 8 TIMES what they project to make this year.  Seems a bit of a stretch – doesn't it?

 

So we like AMZN short but they are very dangerous to be wrong on, so we can limit our risk with the following bear put spread:

  • Buy 5 AMZN 2018 $850 puts for $154 ($77,000) 
  • Sell 5 AMZN 2018 $650 puts for $59 ($29,500) 

That's net $47,500 on the $100,000 spread and it's in the money so you make 100% of any downward move in AMZN up to your max gain ($52,500) at $650 and, unlike shorting 500 shares, there is no margin requirement and you can't lose more than the $47,500 cash commitment.  If AMZN continues to move higher and begins to firm up over $800, we should be able to bail out without too much damage.  

And, finally, how can we talk about the markets without talking about the looming disaster that is oil?  Rumors of OPEC production cuts have blasted oil (/CL) back to $42.50 while Brent Oil (/BZ) is testing the $45 line so we took those shorts in our Live Member Chat Room (of course) this morning and I'll tell you why:

Over at the NYMEX, there are now over 1 MILLION open 1,000 barrel contracts for delivery to the US between now and December – that's 1 BILLION barrels worth of FAKE orders and yes, I said fake, Fake, FAKE!!! because those traders have no intention whatsoever of accepting delivery of physical trading – the entire thing is a gigantic scam (see "Goldman’s Global Oil Scam Passes the 50 Madoff Mark!") designed to rip of the American people at the pumps. 

Mark my words, they will end up accepting LESS THAN 20M ACTUAL BARRELS (20,000 contracts) for delivery by Aug 22nd, even though they are currently (Aug 8th) faking demand for 500 MILLION barrels for September delivery.  If that's not a scam, what is it?  

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Sep'16 41.99 42.47 41.81 42.35 05:36
Aug 08

 


-
0.55 64198 41.80 500623 Call Put
Oct'16 42.70 43.23 42.58 43.11 05:36
Aug 08

 


-
0.54 14449 42.57 229468 Call Put
Nov'16 43.54 44.01 43.40 43.88 05:36
Aug 08

 


-
0.50 3992 43.38 156748 Call Put
Dec'16 44.23 44.73 44.10 44.60 05:36
Aug 08

 


-
0.48 4828 44.12 253566 Call Put

As you can see, there are open orders for 1,140,405,000 barrels of oil between now and the year's end and, specifically, to a storage facility in Cushing, OK that has a handling capacity of just 50M barrels.  It's completely ridiculous and there is bound to be some very painful unwinding of positions along the way.  

If you can't play the futures, there is the Ultra-Short 3x Energy ETF (ERY) which is down at $15.05 and should do well if oil falls back to the mid $30s so we like them long and a good way you can leverage with options is:

  • Buy 10 Jan $12 calls for $4.50 ($4,500)
  • Sell 10 Jan $18 calls for $2.25 ($2,250) 

That nets you into the $6,000 spread for $2,250 so the upside potential is $3,750 (166%) in 6 months and there's no margin required and the best way to manage a trade like this is to pick a sensible stop, like a $1,000 net loss vs. the potential $3,750 reward means you only have to be right one out of 3 times to have a very nice winning percentage (profit-wise).  

That's probably all I'll have time for – we'll see how they work out!

 

 


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  1. Good morning! 

    We're right on those shorting lines but, sadly, I have to run to NYC so let me know how it goes.  Oil still shortable too at $42.48 but tight stops all around in this insane market.  

    I should be back before lunch.

    - Phil


  2. Drukenmiller bearish…so far Nazz 600 points higher from his call…


  3. Hi Guys.

    Here my report on the 24 percent return in one year.

    I was not able to make the roll on GILD and NKE on Friday, so both options where assigned.

    On GILD I spent a total of 138.62 per 100 shares on purchasing the stock and cost for rolling the call options. I received 132.62 incl. the 79.50 for the assignment.

    The stock closed at 80.41 on Friday. The loss on 100 shares is 5.99. However the drop in stock value from 88.95 at time of original purchase to Friday’s close 80.41 would have shown a loss of 8.54 instead 5.99.

    With NKE I show a credit of .75 cents even that the original purchase price was 61.50 against Friday’s closing of 55.85. This would have shown a loss of 5.65 against the small credit of .75 cents.

    I will discontinue this play on GILD and NKE and only continue with VLO and AAPL. Both stocks I had to roll early during the week, as they were 100 % ITM.

    VLO at present shows a loss of 15% but is still showing a good recovery.

    AAPL well here I am nearly home and dry to the goal of 24 % even that there are still 37 weeks to go.

    Enjoy reading. Any questions welcome.

    Yodi.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14M1S8fE4QXm3GFUb_W5js-tGx8myd-Ucu_Z6uHT7now/edit?usp=sharing

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zKO4uLrmxwaFFT9kodYPU5Qymx0V-MdwaquzlkLGO0k/edit?usp=sharing


  4. Where is Phil going to be doing his interview? Would be nice to know where to tune in…



  5. Happy Monday!


  6. I'm short /TF here, 1232.5. All the rest below lines. Oil up a bit, but tight stops. 


  7.  If you go to the NASDAQ Facebook page, I should be there about 10 o'clock or 10:10


  8. Doom and gloom Phil, don't give them a reason to rally, I'm short!!


  9. great interview Phil!


  10. I'm out of /TF 


  11. Heading back, shorts working so far.  


  12. great NASDAQ interview!


  13. I almost called that USO bottom to the day.


  14. I think CLF could break out between here and Jan 2017… 10-12 perhaps


  15. One of the characteristics that is supposed to differentiate exchange-traded funds—and other exchange-traded products, such as exchange-traded notes …


  16. Tesla disclosed $1.1 billion in third quarter cash requirements in payments and planned expenditures on Friday, about a third of the cash on hand mid-year, in a new sign of pressure on the electric vehicle maker.<p>The company is finishing construction of a massive battery factory in Nevada, the …


  17. Levitation speed

    Japan gets less stimulus than expected<p>JAPAN’S fastest trains run above the tracks, not along them, suspended in the air by magnetic forces. One of …


  18. Apricot variety Donald Trump plans to unveil his bold new economic agenda in a speech today. Many of the worst possible policies, together at …


  19. On the heels of Jet.com’s first birthday comes reports that Walmart is in negotiations to acquire the online discount retailer. Sources close to the deal told the <i>Wall Street Journal</i> that it could be worth as much as $3 billion.<p>While Walmart has struggled to translate its winning brick-and-mortar …


  20. Apple Inc. is preparing to unveil successors to the iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus as early as next month with more advanced photography capabilities …


  21. by williambanzai7 – Aug 8, 2016 9:48 AM<p>”I wonder if it’s loaded.”<p>Irish banks vulnerable in stress tests: AIB/ BofI amongst worst 5 banks in EU (see …


  22. During a conference call today, Elon Musk talked about Tesla’s progress in level 4 fully autonomous driving and while he didn’t want to make an announcement on the call, he said that it is coming sooner than people think:<p>“What we’ve got will blow people’s minds, it blows my mind …it’ll come sooner …


  23. The building pictured above is on Boyd Street in Whitechapel, east London. Last year, a flat in the former warehouse was sold to investors on …


  24. The world is not as it seems. But that doesn’t mean that anything you find on the ‘internets’ is ‘real.’ Here, we dubunk the debunkers. Stay safe!<p>The …


  25. I feel the grouchy old man part of me (about 75-percent of me, at this point) starting to complaining about how in his day throwing the old football around was enough fun and we didn’t need to, well, gamify games. But who am I kidding? We played video games, too. And hey, if you can make throwing a …


  26. “The longer that we get something for free, the less willing we are to pay for it.”<p>People like reading the news, but they don’t like paying for it ? and as John Oliver points out on HBO’s “Last Week Tonight,” that’s led to some serious problems in the field of journalism.<p>Circulation is dropping and …


  27. CREDIT: AP Photo/Susan WalshLast week, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump warned Fox News’ Sean Hannity that the “election is going to be …


  28. A biotech company called Seres Therapeutics got some bad news late last month: Its all-important infectious disease drug failed in a clinical trial, sending its stock price down roughly 70 percent. Investors took a bath.<p>But in the two days before that failure became public, three top Seres …


  29. VIX is stupidly low right now. Anyone contemplating selling SVXY puts or buying a bear call/put spread?


  30. svxy is the opposite of VXX tom.

    if you think the vix might spike then you shouldn't sell svxy puts


  31. Phil- thanks on advising against holding BMY any longer than a bounce.


  32. Great interview Phil!!    

    1st time I had any desire to go find the NASDAQ facebook page…..  Well worth it!! 


  33. So, since /ES /YM /NQ are under the lines, with /NKD just crossing below at 16685, but /TF over at 1231, we should now be short /NKD, watching /TF for confirmation.  Agree?

    We're also shorting the Futures at Dow (/YM) 18,500, S&P (/ES) 2,180, Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,800, Russell (/TF) 1,230 and Nikkei (/NKD) 16,700 but only if 3 of 5 cross under in which case we short the next one to cross and that's then confirmed by the 5th cross under and then we stop out if ANY of them cross back over – very simple and it stops you from losing much money while letting a winner run wild.


  34. Yes pardon posted too quickly, I meant to say buy, that's why I said a bear spread. The VIX doesn't go much lower than this, that's the point. I get that SVXY is short VIX short-term futures. What strategies are people using to make money off of the ultra-low VIX set-up, that's the question I have. I know Phil isn't a fan, but the odds seem pretty high that the VIX will be higher than 11.62 between now and Dec.


  35. Phil, based on what you said in the terrific Nasdaq piece, wouldn't you expect to see market rise the first business day after the first and fifteenth of the month when the dumb money needs to be invested? 


  36. Jet/WMT- I will admit  having not heard of Jet.com until a few days ago when the news reported buyout rumors. So, as the M/A guru, what is your take? WMT has a long way to go to match AMZN's online sales numbers but obviously multiples larger in bricks and mortar. What is perplexing is the fact that AMZN grows revenue but very slim net- supposedly betting on the endgame of less capex. Not sure I buy that. 

    Anyway, is WMT sort of giving a "back door" approval of that business model via the Jet acquisition?


  37. Tom / VIX

    Yes the odds that the VIX will be higher is very likely but these ETFs decay massively at low VIX readings. That's the problem.


  38. Jet/WMT –   Isn't this acquisition a huge sign that WMT is preparing to scale the AMZN mountain and conquer it once and for all?    Look out AMZN….  WMT just rode into town on a big horse called Cash Flow with Profits…..


  39. AMZN has been gaining market share for years.  Where has WMT been all this time ?  I don't think anyone is about to crush AMZN. JMHO.


  40. What a day!  And the want me to do that once a month…  angry

    Looks like a bit of a recovery as the EU closes.  They finished up half a point but doown from the opens. 

    Now comes Donald's speech on the economy – this should be fun!

    We can short /TF again at Jeff's 1,232.50 line.  

    Doom and gloom/Jeff – I tried to be fair and balanced.  

    Thanks Jabob.

    Here's the replay link in case anyone missed it:  https://www.facebook.com/NASDAQ/videos/10154325870062429/

    You're welcome Abseth. 

    Thanks GC.  I like doing interviews when it's not one of those octo-boxes or a 2min flash.  You get to have a real conversation.

    Yes on shorting logic Burr.  3 of 5 must be under to short the 4th and then you have your finger on the stop button until the 5th confirms and then, if ANY of them come back over their line, you get back out and wait for a better signal to short the next lagger. 

    At the moment, /TF is only one over so they are lagger and Jeff's adjusted target (1,232.50) is good to play short rather than our original 1,230.  RUT is very bouncy so you have to be willing to let it show you where resistance is during a trading session. 


  41. Phil/Adjustments:

    I made the following adjustments:

    TWTR: bot back the short puts and captured 48% of the premium.  Now just have the 10/18 bull call spread.

    GOGO: closed the 2017 8 calls and opened 2018 8 calls, closed the 2017 13 calls and opened 2017 short 13 calls – in the $5 spread for -.45 net

    AAPL:  closed the 2018 95 short calls and opened 2018 120 short calls, closed the 2018 95 short puts and opened 2018 95 LONG puts.  Now I have 1500 shares long and have raised my strike on the covered call portion to $120 and bot some insurance at 95 puts for a net cost of -$.85 per contact on 15, or -$1275 total.  If the mkt wants to go up, I will capture much more upside (16% annual if called) and if it goes down, like I beleive it will, I am protected on the downside from $95 on.  Perfect.  The original call and put sales all but covered these costs.


  42. VIX/Tom – Those ETFs grind down at an alarming rate.  It's not just that you have to be right, but you have to be right quickly.

    1st and 15th/Craigs – I believe you would find that those are generally bullish days.  Not sure mechanically exactly when the money comes in – I imagine it varies from company to company so really, there should be some inflows maybe 1-3 and 15-18 more likely, if you want to track that but lots of people just get paid Fridays or every other Friday, etc.  I imagine someone has done a study at some point.  

    AMZN/Pstas – Well the acquisition is really about cutting development time as they expand their web services and that does indicate WMT is a bit concerned about AMZN's growth but the reality is AMZN didn't make any money selling retail goods and made all their money selling cloud services.  It could be argued that running a break-even retail operation that covers the expenses for a cloud operation is brilliant but so does IBM an MSFT to some extent.  WMT has 5x AMZN's sales and can quickly go after them so look forward to an ugly. prolonged war.  

    And what GC said (which is why I picked a short this morning). 

    Sounds good Hanj but why do you have long puts on AAPL?  I have a lot more faith than that.  

    Trump speaking from Detroit – all 11 supporters are there.  

    Pundit Press: Obama Received Astounding 98% of the Vote in Detroit


  43. Donald Speech / Phil – Why do they need to call even write a new speech for that. Just a set of the same recycled ideas for the last 40 years – cut taxes for the top 1% and it will pay for itself like it has so many times!

    Giuliani was on CNBC this morning and they were mentioning that think-tank calculated that the cost of the tax cuts would be a $10T and he answered that these guys didn't remember what happened with Reagan and that tax cuts created great growth. And no one pushed back that he also created the biggest deficit ever! Tax cuts have never paid for themselves, not with Reagan, not with Bush, not in Kansas and not in any other places. They only add to inequality which of course doesn't matter to them!


  44. Phil – From Friday – your justified pessimism and "What will it take to stop this market?"

    I promised you an analysis on that claptrap tripe ridden BS jobs report, and you have it here...  

    As for this market, the ride up can be thrilling, but most inconveniently discover a lack of immunity to the effects of gravity far too late.


  45. I think something people don't talk about is that the kind of jobs that are being created in this economy are generally skilled jobs.   It's the poor, uneducated, unskilled workers who are still feeling the brunt of unemployment and low wages as their jobs are being threatened by machines – as well as Mexicans!    So, for that audience, Trump is hitting the nail on the head.   

    Thanks Naybob.  


  46.  LOL! Trump is getting booed at his own speech!   He said something about people below the poverty line not having to pay taxes. That did not go over well with the audience. 


  47. Phil/AAPL Faith is for priests – I am not one.  Because I fully expected a meaningful pull back in the indicies between now and end of year – so I want some protection.  Falling tide carries all ships, and all that jazz.  If not, its cost me a whopping .85 per share to protect.  Wise insurance.  

    As the market keeps climbing, i will continue to look to buy back short puts and flip them.


  48. Phil / Jobs

    I'm not sure that's the case. ZH have a piece but I haven't checked the primary data. ZH certainly has a negative bias. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-05/no-high-school-diploma-no-problem-here-are-best-paying-jobs-you&nbsp;


  49. Also for college grads unemployment is always much lower.

    http://www.macrotrends.net/2510/unemployment-rate-college-graduates

    At 2.5%, college-grad unemployment has fallen to it's historical (20-year) average. A married couple with two degrees between them each have a 1 in 40 chance of being unemployed. So the probability of both being unemployed is 1600 to 1. Most people can squeak by on one income if they have to. They might not have any extra spending money or getting ahead, but they aren't in bankruptcy.

    Trump supporters (many HS level) just feel a different pain. Not only are the probabilities of being in trouble much higher, the jobs they have traditionally pay much less, even when they have them. They feel they are stuck in a hopeless situation of stagnant wage growth and advancement prospects that is somehow Obama and hordes of illegals' fault.


  50. Wow, look at BID go.  I got caught a bit too covered, and am looking at potential adjustments.  My position started out with the official LTP position, and then I adjusted so I could roll the short calls up and out, and double down.   I currently have the following position:

    30 $23/32 2018 Call spreads

    Short 5 2018 $25 Puts (I took profits on 5 more a week ago)

    10 short October $30 calls (Basis 3.4)  (I originally had 20 shorts, and covered half during the brexit dip for a decent gain).  

    I guess I could roll the 10 October calls (currently worth $9,200), to 15 January 2017 $38 calls for $6,150, and sell 10 2018 $30 puts for $3,200. So spend $0 for the roll, sell a bunch more premium, and still be reasonably well covered while I wait for full value on my call spread.

    Thoughts?


  51. SQQQ, Bought Jan 17, strike 15 calls


  52. NAK / Phil,

    What's your thought on the run up?  Is this due to the fact that folks are jumping into "anything" gold miner or do they have some real legs.  I cannot seem to find any tangible news.  I DD'd @ .30 and will be covering with Feb 2's for 0.20 to bring my basis to 0.1.  TIA


  53. BAC- bought Feb 2017, strike 16 calls.


  54. Bought some DWTI for a scalp.  Risking 2 points.


  55. Albo- i bought USD/CAD. let see DWTI reverse


  56. tried to place the LABU Mar/Dec spread mentioned this morning and received this message back from TOS "Rejected: Mar options are closing only"  Anyone else get that reply?


  57. Abseth – Thinking the OPEC effect may not hold til the pit close.  We'll see.


  58. Yep, i don't think OPEC jawboning will be have lasting effect


  59. FRO – if you are not too concerned about potential div cut, buying the stock and selling the Jan2018 $8 calls can net you in for 6.30 for an effective 25% dividend.  If called, you get a 26% gain on the stock, plus the 25% yield during however long you held it…  I have been developing a longer term position here (just under 2% of an account), and at 1.6/year in dividend, pulling down overall cost at a nice clip. Very tempted to add a teeny bit more at net 6.30…but will just eyeball for now.  Appreciated the discussion on this last week.


  60. FRO/scott  And the $8 puts are around $4.00!


  61. FRO/Jel -oh yeah..! a full buy/write play is very tempting.  the $3 puts could be had for $1, and the $5 puts at $2… Even if cut dividend in half you can be covered down to a net $4 very easily with the $5 puts sold, and at half dividend, that is still a 20% dividend before any assignment, and ~18% if more put to you at $5 after an assignment for a net ~$4.50.  (these numbers are loose, but not far off).   if oil 'tanks' the speculators are going to at least rent out the vessels as storage, no? No ships need to be idle…


  62. HOV/Phil – earnings a month out… looks like has based through last couple qtrs. value opportunity here?


  63. /CL  – lost $500 selling short from $42.95 to $43.16.


  64. Insurance/Hanj – True, cheap enough and worth the price if it helps you sleep.

    Jobs/Enfil – Wasn't the impression I had from the spread of jobs in the last report but this chart does seem to say otherwise.

    I was thinking more about this more in-depth study from the WSJ recently.

    And this:

    And this:

    Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce recently released a report that details the exponential growth of professional oriented jobs since the recession and the abysmal recovery of blue collar and clerical jobs. The report, appropriately entitled “America’s Divided Recovery: College Haves and Have Nots,” explores the dilemma facing American workers in 2016, noting that over 95% of jobs established during the recovery period have required some college education. 11.5 million out of 11.6 million jobs created in the past 8 years have been filled by those with at least some post-secondary education.

    During the recovery, those jobs requiring a graduate degree have gained 3.8 million jobs, those requiring a Bachelor’s gained 4.6 million jobs, and those requiring an Associates gained 3.1 million jobs. Comparatively, jobs requiring a minimum of a high school diploma have gained only 80,000 jobs.

    And what BDC said!  

    BID/Palotay – Such a great cyclical business.  If you wait long enough, it will come down.  At least you have 30 long so I'd just go with your good plan and roll them up and out and see how it goes over time.  When 2019s come out, you can always cash 10 of your $9 spreads (now $7) and buy, for example, 2x the 2019 $35/45 bull call spreads (the 2018s are $4) so you'd be 40x long to the short 15.

    SQQQ/Abserth – Those spreads are exceptionally cheap.  

    NAK/Jeddah – Ah, my favorite gold gamble.  My children will be able to buy their first homes for cash if this one goes well!  This and LQMT are big speculative holdings for them.  

    That being said, I don't know if this is legitimate or not as Sprott Asset Management took a 5% stake last month and it may just be a lot of people following them in.  For Sprott, it's a very small position – probably proportional to the one the tooth fairy left for my daughters…  I don't know of any news moving it. 

    LABU/Doro – That's odd.  Maybe because they only just printed?  I meant Dec anyway as March didn't have enough strikes to make my trade.  

    OPEC/Abseth – Working so far – $43.33, Brent $45.64.

    1,230 is now the stop on /TF shorts! 

    FRO/Scott – I like dividend cuts if I'm going to be a long-term investor.  Still, as previously noted, it's a risky stock. 

    HOV/Scott – Well we have a big position and I haven't seen any reason to lose faith.  Like BID, they are a big cyclical that will go in and out of favor so I just buy them when they're out and then wait patiently for years.  

    It's not complicated to me – buy them when they are down around $2 sell some over $5 and sometimes you get to $10 or better with what's left.  In 2005 it went to $70 – that was idiotic but hey, we'll take idiotic…

    /CL/Latch – Well that's why we were only supposed to short if /CL was under $42.50 and /BZ was under $45 – gets too dangerous above. 

    If it were going to last, you would think /RB would go higher, not lower.

    Honey badger hit our long line at $2.70!


  65. Phil/401K,

    HOV and NAK, good stocks for the 401K…buy it and let it stay for years…

    Thanks as always.

    regards


  66. closed out of USD/CAD 10 pips loss


  67. Hi Phil.  Great call on the BHI 42/45 Aug BCS. Any sense in closing out or rolling the short call?


  68. Nasdaq interview- If I heard correctly , near the end you commented on earnings flattening or bottoming and the market was a bit ahead of itself. Did you mean to imply an uptick in forward earnings was in the cards or what? Given GDP projections (except the Atlanta Fed from last week) seems counter intuitive. 


  69. You're welcome Pat.

    BHI/Taihu – It's not in danger.  Why not wait two weeks and collect the full amount?  

    Uptick/Pstas – I'm not a bear, I expect a correction and then I'll be gosh-darn bullish.  It's the wages that will save the economy – they are in a nice uptrend, then comes inflation.  Takes time though.

    LOL, I went to look at BHI in the OOP and now it's up to 86.5% – up 5.4% today.  Come on – these markets are ridiculous if that can happen!  

    It's intra-day so I'm sure it will normalize but that's a crazy move in a flat market.  


  70. Sold 1/3  DWTI up two points.


  71. Phil / wages – how much of the wage inflation is due to the minimum wage of $15? Is there anyway to track that.  I know my salary is not going up except for a nominal inflation adjuster.


  72. its a no volume Monday.


  73. scottmi-phil

    What was the post last week discussing FRO as a risky stock?  Can you point me to the date and time?  This one looks awfully good to me!  Thanks.


  74. Closed out last 2/3 of DWTI up 1.60.


  75. Nice tune to wrap up the market day…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIArmP6HcZk&feature=youtu.be


  76. Wages/Latch – Well some but 30M minimum wage jobs at $15,000 out of 160M jobs isn't going to move the needle too much.  The bigger effect though (and employers know this, which is why they are so against it) is that by raising the minimum wage, there's a trickle-up effect to middle management in the very least, so all workers benefit from minimum wage increases – not just the people who were earning it.

    Volume/Stock – Why should today be any different?  

    FRO/Rvn – Thanks Scott.  Note there are several comments from that post.

    Tune/Scott – I don't know about you but I couldn't hear any words.  cool  Not my kind of music but reminds me of this:


  77. Dow made green on the closing stick but others failed.  


  78. Oil fell sharply into the close.  Guess the OPEC rumor wore off already. 


  79. /CL – this was clearly a fake move up, and I would hang in shorting especially if it pops up again. I made some $ on the move down into the close, as I was watching RB and saw that wasn't going up with oil. 


  80. No business should pay more than 15% of income in taxes, Donald Trump said on Monday, as the Republican presidential nominee called for a temporary moratorium on federal regulations.<p>In a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, Trump also proposed allowing parents to fully deduct the average cost of …


  81. It’s no secret that the US has an inequality problem.<p>But it is striking to see it compared to other developed economies.<p>In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs’ Sumana Manohar and Hugo Scott-Gall shared a chart comparing a given country’s GDP per capita to its Gini coefficient.<p>The Gini …


  82. It’s now up to phone and tablet manufacturers to plug the “QuadRooter” holes.<p>Security researchers have found a series of security holes in almost a billion Android devices that use chipsets from Qualcomm.<p>The Check Point researchers said in a blog post on Sunday that attackers could use the flaws to …


  83. HSBC analyst David Bloom and his team believe the Bank of England will cut interest rates down to 0.10% in November and that the pound will fall to 1:1 parity with the euro, and exchange for just $1.10 with the US dollar by the end of 2017.<p>The pound has not been that weak against the dollar since …


  84. Engineers have discovered a brand-new, bright-blue fire tornado that behaves unlike any flame ever before created.<p>When a fire burns yellow, it’s unclean. The warm colors are signs of an incomplete combustion reaction coughing up soot, smoke, and other emissions. When a flame glows blue, it’s a sign …


  85. by williambanzai7 – Aug 8, 2016 9:48 AM<p>”I wonder if it’s loaded.”<p>The markets are beyond overbought and overstretched.<p>The world is not as it seems. …


  86. Vail Resorts is hitting the slopes north of the border.<p>The Colorado-based ski resort operator said on Monday that it has acquired Canadian resort Whistler Blackcomb for approximately $1.1 billion, or roughly C$1.4 billion.<p>As part of the deal, which the companies expect to close in fall of this …


  87. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could need as much as $125.8 billion in bailout money from taxpayers in a severe economic downturn, according to stress …


  88. Delta says flights resuming but massive cancellations still expected

    <b>New York (CNN) —</b> The week got off to a nightmarish start for Delta and its passengers.<p>Delta Air Lines flights were grounded for at least six hours early Monday by a global computer system outage, causing large-scale cancellations and stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers.<p>At 8:40 a.m. ET, …


  89. Cities around the world are starting to question if hosting the Olympics is worth it.<p>Most cities simply do not have the infrastructure required to withstand the two-week influx of athletes, coaches, fans, and media members. The money required to build state-of-the-art athletic facilities is …


  90. In yet another attempt to reboot his Presidential campaign by demonstrating that he’s really a policy guy, Donald Trump on Monday will unveil a sheaf of proposals aimed at spurring economic growth.<p>Judging from advance reports, almost all of these will be familiar to anyone who has followed …


  91. After Saying Clinton Is ‘Owned’ By Wall Street, Trump Proposes A Ban On All Financial Regulation<p>Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has …


  92. Nassim Taleb, the man who popularized the “black swan” theory, recently did a Q&A with Yahoo Finance.<p>Taleb, the author of “The Black Swan” and …


  93. MREITs have been on fire this year, especially Chimera Investment Corp.<p>However, management has only recently decided to try a new, potentially much …


  94. As expected, the big story this weekend was the debut of “Suicide Squad,” which broke the August opening weekend record by over $40 million. However, …


  95. U.S. Steel Corp., the nation’s second-biggest producer of the alloy, plans to sell 17 million shares in a public offering, which would generate about …


  96. It’s an understatement to say that the Obama administration has been dedicated to fighting climate change — with its biggest achievements including introducing the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan and negotiating the Paris climate agreement. This is surely the most that any U.S. …


  97. Below is a list highlighting the year-to-date percentage change (in local currency) for the main stock market indices of 76 countries around the …


  98. Tech writer Clay Shirky has posted an essay declaring that There’s No Such Thing As A Protest Vote. In a better world we would be able to safely set …


  99. How Trump’s Economic Manifesto Measures Up

    Donald Trump fleshed out his economic agenda with a speech in Detroit on Monday. The Republican presidential nominee said he’d roll out more details …


  100. LAS VEGAS — Steven J. Oshins, a Nevada lawyer who specializes in estate planning, has never met the wealthy software entrepreneur Dan Kloiber, but he is nonetheless intensely interested in Mr. Kloiber’s contentious divorce.<p>“I have had a Google news alert on that for a couple years,” Mr. Oshins said …


  101. An informal OPEC meeting next month is unlikely to deliver any agreement to limit production because several members including Iran are still pumping …


  102. by williambanzai7 – Aug 8, 2016 9:48 AM<p>”I wonder if it’s loaded.”<p>The markets are beyond overbought and overstretched.<p>The world is not as it seems. …


  103. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is telling clients to buy the dollar as the market is underpricing the chances for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase …


  104. Donald Trump’s response to criticisms from the Muslim American parents of a fallen Army captain last week was widely rejected by Republicans and Democrats and, according to a new poll, was overwhelmingly unpopular with the broader public.<p>A Washington Post-ABC News poll found 12 percent of Americans …


  105. Sotheby’s made it out of the second quarter with a profit even though the art market remained in turmoil.<p>The art and real-estate broker on Monday reported a 31% year-over-year rise in profits as it cut costs.<p>Meanwhile, its net auction sales fell 16%, “reflecting a comparable decline in the global …


  106. By combining SolarCity Corp. and Tesla Motors Inc., Elon Musk hopes to create an integrated renewable energy company that can sell solar panels as well as the batteries to preserve their power to homes and businesses all over the world.<p>But to achieve his vision, Mr. Musk may once again have to …


  107. As Americans begin casting the first ballots in the 2016 presidential election, neither political party is widely viewed as supportive of the middle …


  108. The cash pile at Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. climbed to a record $72.7 billion as of June 30, helped by Kraft Heinz Co.’s redemption of …


  109. Drone warfare makes more terrorists than it kills

    In April, President Obama called his 2011 intervention in Libya the “worst mistake” of his presidency, and it’s not a bad candidate for the title. But beyond any one specific conflict, Obama’s tenure has been closely tied to a tactic—drone warfare—which is at least in the running for second place …


  110. Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s <b>Closer</b> sent to Bespoke clients, we summarize today’s Final Manufacturers’ …


  111. The middle class lost ground in nearly nine-in-ten U.S. metropolitan areas examined<p>The American middle class is losing ground in metropolitan areas …


  112. More women are dying in childbirth in the US than in any other developed country. And experts say the problem is likely to keep getting worse.<p>You can see how alarming the issue is in this chart. In other countries, maternal death rates have fallen sharply since 1990. In South Korea, the rate of …


  113. Dozens of former top aides and cabinet members for President George W. Bush warn Trump would put America at “risk”<p>“None of us will vote for Donald Trump,” a letter signed by 50 of the right’s top national security officials read. Dozens of top aides and cabinet members for President George W. Bush …


  114. Natural gas futures fell as forecasts called for cooler weather in parts of the U.S. after unseasonable warmth drove demand for the fuel to a …


  115. 0 0<p>Take a look around and you’ll see evidence of the widespread adoption of wearable sensors for health and fitness, such as the Fitbit, Garmin or …


  116. ATLANTA—In an unprecedented warning to the U.S. populace, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Monday that scientists had …


  117. Crispin Odey.<p>Netflix has a problem. It’s you.<p>That’s according to Crispin Odey, one of London’s biggest hedge fund managers.<p>Voracious consumers are watching Netflix’s content more quickly than the online streaming service can replenish it, Odey said during his hedge fund’s second quarterly phone …


  118. Investors breathed a collective sigh of relief on Monday after Sotheby’s managed to buck the softening art market to report better than expected …


  119. • NOTE: Poll taken before party conventions showed Clinton leading Trump 43%-40%<br>• NOTE: Poll of 803 registered voters conducted Aug. 4-7 has sampling …


  120. A much-hyped pivot didn’t seem like much of a change.<p>After spending a week picking a fight with the parents of a fallen soldier, Donald Trump said Monday he was tearing up his economic plan and starting over from scratch.<p>In a scripted message at the Detroit Economic Club, Trump offered a milder …


  121. Hong Kong real estate shares haven’t been this hot since the city’s last housing bubble burst almost two decades ago.<p>The industry’s benchmark equity …


  122. by williambanzai7 – Aug 8, 2016 9:48 AM<p>”I wonder if it’s loaded.”<p>The markets are beyond overbought and overstretched.<p>The world is not as it seems. …


  123. The drones of tomorrow will be stealthier, faster, more computerized, equipped for electronic warfare, more lethal, more autonomous and, in some cases, able to deploy as swarming groups of mini-drones, according to the Air Force’s Chief Scientist.<p>“The ISR (intelligence, surveillance, …


  124. by williambanzai7 – Aug 8, 2016 9:48 AM<p>”I wonder if it’s loaded.”<p>The markets are beyond overbought and overstretched.<p>The world is not as it seems. …


  125. Apple has spent the last few years developing a custom Bluetooth radio chip for wireless earbuds, according to a source with knowledge of the project. It’s possible the Bluetooth device will launch in September with the first iPhone without a headphone jack (likely called iPhone 7). If Apple …


  126. Phil/GOGO  Sometimes its better to be lucky than good.  I closed the 2017 8 calls and the 13 calls on Friday morning.  Then I opened the 2018 8 long call and the 2018 13 short call today mid morning.  Result? I just about doubled my net credit from .60 to 1.25 per contract.  So, I am net +$7528 on 60 contracts on a max profit of $30,000.  Wheeeeeeee


  127. Very nice, Hanj!   


  128. Fake oil/Craig's – Don't forget, one more holiday weekend for Bulls to hang their hats on bey I'm very confident in the ERY spread.  


  129. Like many other investors, I was glued to CNBC yesterday as WalMart announced an earnings miss, a renewed commitment to ecommerce (to the tune of …


  130. Facial recognition already posed serious problems for privacy advocates. Used by everyone from law enforcement to churches, the privacy concerns with facial recognition are very real, and they’re about to get a lot worse.<p>The ability to identify anyone just by analyzing an image of their face …


  131. The Reserve Bank of Australia could be forced to cut the cash rate to 1% in the next 12 months and even resort to US and European-style monetary easing if global headwinds continue to weigh on the economy, experts have warned.<p>Despite already cutting the rate twice in 2016 to unprecedented levels, …


  132. The chaos that left tens of thousands of Delta passengers stuck in airports around the planet overnight was the result, the airline claims, of a power outage in Atlanta that crippled its computer systems and operations.<p>But it may not be that simple.<p>The power company that provides Delta’s …


  133. Remember Fisker’s Atlantic? It could be reincarnated in China.<p>Electric car startup Karma Automotive appears to be planning to build a factory to make some of its cars in China, and could use that facility to revive a planned two-door electric car.<p>Karma Automotive is the reincarnation of the former …


  134. The U.S. has become dependent on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to manage the economy. However, even though the Fed has kept interest rates at historic lows for the past 8 years, the economy’s growth has been anemic at best. Bruce Pile explains why Alan Greenspan and Marc Faber agree that …


  135. WASHINGTON — <i>In laying out his economic platform on Monday, Donald J. Trump made several assertions that glossed over the complexities of the domestic and international economy. Here are a few we checked out.</i><p><b>Claim:</b> “One in five American households do not have a single member in the labor force, not …


  136. E-book nerds, rejoice! More than 300,000 titles are now available for download on your smartphone, <i>for free</i> if you have a New York Public Library card.<p>The Big Apple’s biggest book lender released a new app this summer, SimplyE, that has everything from the classics to <i>A Song of Ice and Fire</i> and even …


  137. Marriott International Inc.’s proposed $13.6-billion purchase of Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. has hit a snag: China.<p>The Bethesda, Md.-based hospitality giant said Monday that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce needs up to 60 additional days to review the company’s purchase of Starwood, a …


  138. Although the exploit hasn’t been documented in the wild yet, security researchers have discovered a vulnerability in Samsung Pay that could be used …


  139. Facebook researchers examined the behavior of over 160,000 users to help put an end to the cat vs dog debate once and for all. Its findings were actually in line with long-held stereotypes that dog people tend to be friendly, outgoing and generally likable while cat people are more likely to be …


  140. RIO DE JANEIRO — Japan returned to the top of the men’s gymnastics world, beating Russia and China in the team event at the Olympics.<p>The event was a renewal of the long-time gymnastics rivalry between Japan and China. China won the last two gold medals, in 2008 and 2012. But Japan has the world’s …


  141. Intruders might have had a gateway to stealing your payment details.<p>Data thieves don’t always have to go straight to the source to swipe payment details… sometimes, they can take a roundabout route. Oracle has confirmed to security guru Brian Krebs that hackers breached a support portal for …


  142. Copper is waving a red flag.<p>”Recent movements in copper inventories highlight the lack of significant demand for the metal, particularly in the ever important Chinese market,” analysts at BMI Research wrote in a recent note.<p>The country’s demand matters because copper is used to make items as varied …


  143. Pound Slides for Fifth Day After BOE Starts Expanded QE Program

    The pound fell for a fifth day and touched its weakest level in almost a month after the Bank of England started its expanded monetary easing program …


  144. This robot can make real tattoos on your skin

    A team of students from well-known Paris design school ENSCI Les Ateliers had an idea that could change the face of tattooing.<p>The team came up with the idea during a recent design challenge hosted by the French Ministry of Culture and worked with other ENSCI students and teachers to bring it to …


  145. China’s CPI rose 1.8% in July from a year earlier, the third straight month it has lost pace<p>BEIJING—Consumer prices in China grew less rapidly in July as increases in food costs abated, giving authorities more room to ease monetary policy in the world’s second-largest economy.<p>China’s Consumer Price …


  146. BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s consumer price inflation accelerated at its weakest pace in six months as food prices rose at a slower pace, although the long decline in upstream prices continued to moderate.<p>The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8 percent in July from a year earlier, compared with a …


  147. Shutterstock photo<p>Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and <b>Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG</b> may be one such …


  148. Banks will need to compete harder to ensure savers don’t withdraw deposits in search for better yields elsewhere because that would curtail banks’ …


  149. China’s passenger-vehicle sales rose for a fifth consecutive month in July, as General Motors Co. and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. accelerated …


  150. At the very first Olympics hosted by a country from South America in the event’s 120-year history, we’ve witnessed some unprecedented things.<p>We’ve seen Gisele Bündchen walk the world’s longest runway and Michael Phelps and other Olympians dominate for the US team.<p>All of these events are happening …


  151. One year after China roiled markets by devaluing its currency, the nation’s central bank appears to be firmly back in control.<p>While the yuan has …


  152. Are Negative Rates Backfiring? Here’s Some Early Evidence

    KORSCHENBROICH, Germany—Two years ago, the European Central Bank cut interest rates below zero to encourage people such as Heike Hofmann, who sells fruits and vegetables in this small city, to spend more.<p>Policy makers in Europe and Japan have turned to negative rates for the same reason—to …


  153. The French economy is set to return to growth this quarter, the nation’s central bank said, as President Francois Hollande aims to cement a …


  154. The latest data on consumer and producer price inflation in China is out and, as with reactions to new figures on international trade released …


  155. The parents of two Americans killed in the 2012 attack on a United States diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, filed a lawsuit on Monday against Hillary Clinton, saying that her “‘extreme carelessness’ in handling confidential and classified information” while secretary of state contributed to …


  156. Whenever Mario Draghi clears a hurdle on his path to higher inflation, a new one appears.<p>Just as the 19-nation economy sends encouraging signals that …


  157. Officials with Kentucky’s state-run health insurance exchange set up at an AARP event in Jeffersontown, Kentucky, on October 23, 2013. (Luke Sharrett …


  158. 08/08/2016 Views: 0<p>After Donald Trump accuses Democrats of planning to rig the presidential election, Trevor uncovers past instances of voter fraud. …


  159. Libor is coming unhinged (for a simple reason why, click here) from other borrowing costs and that has real implications for the cost of money in the …


  160. When Chinese distressed debt investor Sheng Li goes to inspect property pledged as collateral for a bad loan, he never knows what he may encounter.<p>On …


  161. U.S. electricity consumers could end up paying more than $2.5 billion for nuclear plants that never get built.<p>Utilities including Duke Energy Corp., …


  162. Three Koch-backed groups operated so far outside the law that even the neutered FEC had no choice but to act<p>For billionaire industrialist brothers who have funded climate change denial for decades, it’s no surprise that the political groups they finance lied to the Internal Revenue Service about …


  163. Hannity cited Obama’s 2012 shutout in inner-city Philadelphia to argue the 2016 race is “rigged” against Trump<p>Fox News personality Sean Hannity caught flak recently for pushing a false conspiracy theory from the 2012 election to corroborate GOP nominee Donald Trump’s equally false claim that the …


  164. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump promised Monday to repeal a host of energy and environmental regulations, save the coal industry and lift restrictions on energy sales.<p>But many of those promises may be challenging to fulfill. A new president cannot easily cancel most regulations, which …


  165. Monday afternoon the New York Times published an open letter from 50 foreign policy hands who had served in previous Republican administrations pledging to oppose Donald Trump. The letter, which you can read at the end of this post, suggests Trump “would be the most reckless president in American …


  166. The headline on a recent piece by Ylan Mui of the Washington Post—“Why the Fed is rethinking everything”—captured the current moment well. The …


  167. John Oliver’s 19-minute riff about what’s become of local newspapers made me laugh. Parts of it also made me want to cry.<p>But it did not make me want to complain — even for one second — about the comedian’s acerbic commentary on journalism in his “Last Week Tonight” show Sunday on HBO. Because the …


  168. TOKYO (Reuters) – Crude prices inched down on Tuesday in Asia, paring gains of nearly 3 percent from a day earlier, as worries over a global oil glut tempered speculation that OPEC would try to restrain output.<p>Qatar’s Energy Minister and OPEC President Mohammad bin Saleh al-Sada said on Monday the …


  169. Share!<p>Last week we got the “good news” that wages are rising. It has been a recurring story over the past several months. The headlines said that …


  170. by williambanzai7 – Aug 8, 2016 9:48 AM<p>”I wonder if it’s loaded.”<p>The markets are beyond overbought and overstretched.<p>How the West has created the …


  171. The New York Times wrote a ticket bot.<p>Our bot didn’t buy any tickets. And we didn’t scalp any tickets.<p>But we wanted to learn how bots worked in order to track the resale ticket prices for “Hamilton” on Broadway. So our bot simply recorded ticket inventory over time.<p>But with some additional work, it …


  172. The Olympics is all about humankind’s ability to triumph over its naturally-imposed limitations and the world around it. So why, then, has the highly-respected <i>Washington Post</i> announced that it is handing much of the reportage of individual events over to Heliograf, its robot reporter?<p>Rather than …


  173. The first Zika outbreak in the continental U.S. has spread to a third Florida county, the governor said on Monday, as health officials launched an investigation into a new case.<p>But officials believe active transmission of the virus remains confined to the square-mile Wynwood neighborhood of Miami …


  174. Janet Yellen could learn a few things from Houdini

    Harry Houdini was the greatest escape artist of the 20th century. He escaped from specially made handcuffs, underwater trunks and once escaped from being buried alive. Now Janet Yellen will try to become the greatest escape artist of the 21st century.<p>Yellen is handcuffed by weak growth, persistent …


  175. A team of German innovators has dreamt up the world’s first vertical takeoff and landing electric jet (beating Elon Musk to the punch).<p>Called “Lilium Jet,” the two-passenger plane—conceived by a group of aerospace engineers and product designers from the Technical University of Munich—looks to …


  176. The US has a “big need need for public investment, and very low interest rates” — don’t let the GOP fool you<p>In his Monday New York Times column, Paul Krugman argues that given historically low interest rates and a historically high need for infrastructure development, anyone who is still arguing …


  177. Wall Street is urging governments to invest in big-ticket infrastructure projects. Voters and public officials have a different message: not so fast.<p>Plunging global interest rates have made borrowing cheaper than ever. But instead of spending on aging roads, bridges and buildings, many state and …


  178. It’s clear from the beginning that something is different about this couch. It’s a beaten-up gray and has the word “Boosted” written across the back …


  179. SEATTLE — Amazon surprised a lot of people when its Echo, a $180 so-called smart speaker, became a hit, giving them a novel way to play music, turn on the lights in their homes and set thermostats with voice commands.<p>Amazon, though, has much bigger plans for the technology behind Echo. It wants the …


  180. /CL- Wow, what luck, that I woke up at 3AM and bought back my oil shorts at $42.50! Phil what is ERY spread you mentioned at 7PM last night? Not sure I have seen this term used before. Thanks for the reminder of another holiday weekend. I still think we should see some downside though into the contract rollover next 2 weeks.


  181. Craig's, ERY in the morning post above. 


  182. Good morning! 

    Oil setting up for another short (good job getting out Craigs), now $43.25 and Brent $45.51 and they both topped out about 0.20 higher.  Summary of the news overnight is:

    1. OPEC plans informal talks next month.

    OPEC Still Faces the Same Obstacles to Agreeing Oil-Output Limit. (video) An informal OPEC meeting next month is unlikely to deliver any agreement to limit production because several members including Iran are still pumping below capacity. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are planning to hold talks next month on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria, the group’s president Mohammed Al Sada said Monday. But the same obstacles that prevented an agreement on proposals to freeze output in April or fix a new production target in June are still there, according to UBS Group AG. “We still haven’t reached the moment when OPEC members will agree to a production agreement, as Iran has not yet recovered its pre-sanction production levels,” Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said by e-mail. “Nigerian and Libyan oil output are also currently below capacity.” 

    2. China imports slide.

    Product Glut Sees Chinese Crude Oil Imports Fall To Six-Month Low

    3. US stocks at record highs

    Stock price graphs

    Futures price graphs

    We report, you decide!  Now I'd use $43.25 with conviction and a stop over $43.50 so it would be 1x short at $43.25, 2x at $43.45 to avg $43.30 and maybe 1x more at $43.50 to average $43.37 on 3 – always looking to get back to 1x even and with a tight stop over $43.50 for a 3x 0.13 loss ($390) at risk.  Brent staying under $45.50 is encouraging – over is worrying!  


  183. /NG long at $2.70, again, of course! 


  184. Europe is up more than half a point and getting stronger on more BOE easing talk and EU turning nice on Spain and Portugal so we'll just have to see how today plays out:

    Gilt yields, sterling slide on BoE easing message

    • British 10-year government yields have slid below 0.6% for the first time on record, while the pound dropped against the dollar, despite signs of post-referendum resiliencein U.K. retail sales.
    • Writing in an Op-Ed for The Times, Bank of England rate-setter Ian McCafferty said the central bank would cut rates further and boost bond purchases if the economic downturn in the U.K. deepens.
    • Sterling -0.5% to $1.2986.

    EU cancels budget fines for Spain, Portugal

    • The European Commission has agreed to cancel budget fines for Spain and Portugal and set new deadlines for the countries to rein in their excess deficits despite them breaching EU limits in 2015.
    • Spain will now have two more years to bring its deficit below 3%, while Portugal will have until the end of the year to reduce its shortfall to 2.5%.

    Italy's rescue fund has BMPS pledge covered

    • Atlante, the fund set up to rescue Italian banks, has already raised more than the €1.6B it has pledged to buy part of the bad loan portfolio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (OTCPK:BMDPY).
    • The troubled lender poses a danger to the wider Italian banking system and the hope is a solution to its problems could mark a turning point in a crisis that has threatened to trigger contagion across Europe.
    • BMPS shares are down more than 80% YTD.

    Tuesday's economic calendar

    Bonds Bid, Stocks Skid As Crude Chaos Continues On Lowest Volume Day Of 2016

    "Zika Zone" Turns Into Ghost-Town As Planes Spray Neurotoxic Insecticide Over Florida Residents

    China inflation slows again

    • Consumer inflation in China grew less rapidly in July as increases in food costs abated, giving authorities more room to ease monetary policy in the world's second-largest economy.
    • China's Consumer Price Index slowed to an annual rate of 1.8%, putting it further below the government's 3% ceiling and marking the third consecutive month the key inflation measure lost speed.
    • Producer prices, meanwhile, extended their decline, falling 1.7% from a year ago.

    Japan Orders Military To 'State Of Alert' As North Korea Accuses US Of Seeking 'Preemptive Nuclear Strike'

    RBI keeps rates on hold as Rajan departs

    • In its last meeting under the helm of Governor Raghuram Rajan, the Reserve Bank of India left monetary policy steady, keeping the repo rate and reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.5% and 6%, respectively.
    • Rajan became a popular figure in a country where central bankers typically stay outside the limelight, winning plaudits in some quarters for nudging banks to do more about their bad debts but was criticized by some for not cutting rates aggressively enough.

     

    These Are the Red Lines Europe Won't Cross in Brexit TalksU.K. Prime Minister Theresa May faces a daunting array of demands from European Union nations when the time comes to negotiate Britain’s future relationship with the bloc, an analysis of the region’s 27 other members shows. The survey, based on responses from ministries, public comments from government officials and interviews with policy makers, reveals European leaders are laying down their own red lines as May’s team weighs what it wants to seek in the Brexit talks. The result is a complex patchwork of priorities — from an insistence on freedom of movement to the sovereignty of Gibraltar — that may run counter to what the U.K. wants to achieve and that it will have to seek to satisfy if May is to meet her commitment of making a success of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

    Are Negative Rates BackfiringHere’s Some Early Evidence. Economists worry that people and businesses are saving more, instead of spending.

    JIM GRANT: 'Central bank acrobatics' could result in a banking crisis

    A Crisis Of Intervention

    Why Morgan Stanley Still Expects The 10Y Treasury To Drop To 1%, In 4 Charts

    Tech Giants at the Debt Buffett

    Ignore The Latest Jobs Data Hype: The Worst Expansion In 30 Years Continues

    U.S. Steel to launch 17M-share offering

    • U.S. Steel (NYSE:X-2.1% AH after announcing a public offering of 17M common shares – ~11.5% of total current shares outstanding – with an underwriters option to purchase up to an additional 2.55M shares.
    • U.S. Steel says it plans to use the proceeds for financial flexibility, capital expenditures and other general corporate purposes.

    Aluminum Seen Falling Another 11% as China Boosts Supply: Chart

    In First Autopilot Crash In China, Tesla(TSLA) Model S Driver Crashes In Beijing With Autopilot Engaged

    EV marketing digs ratchet up a level

    • new advertisement from BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) airing during the Olympics takes an indirect shot at Tesla Motors (TSLA -0.9%).
    • "You will wait, and wait and wait some more — all before that electric car company's new model ever even arrives," laments the voiceover in the spot before the German automaker's 330e is unveiled.
    • Earlier this year, Nissan referred to the Tesla Model 3 launch in print ads that indicated no EV customers should have to wait for a reservation to be fulfilled.
    • General Motors (GM +0.1%) has stuck to the basics with its early discussion on the all-electric Chevy Bolt, driving home the 200-mile range and $30K sticker price (after the federal tax credit).
    • The marketing battle escalation arrives amid quite a bit of debate on the impact of the ~400K Tesla Model 3 pre-orders on demand for current EV models.

     

    Kandi Technologies discloses subsidy from Hainan government

    • Kandi Technologies Group (NASDAQ:KNDI) announces that wholly-owned subsidiary Kandi Electric Vehicles has reached an agreement with the Hainan Provincial Government for Kandi Hainan to receive a 300M renminbi ($45.1M) subsidy to support its research and development expenditures on a new model of electric vehicle.
    • The subsidy payment schedule is based on the progress of Kandi Hainan’s new model development and the initial payment of 100M renminbi (~$15 million) has already been received.
    • "We very much appreciate the Hainan government’s generous support. We will use the funds to develop the best possible electric vehicle products that also satisfy market needs," says Kandi CEO Hu Xiaoming.
    • KNDI +4.24% premarket to $7.62.
    • Source: Press Release

    Gap(GPS) Shares Drop as Dismal Store Traffic Drags Down July SalesGap Inc., the biggest U.S. apparel-focused retailer, fell in late trading after posting July comparable sales that missed analysts’ estimates and indicated that foot traffic at its stores might not improve as much as expected later in the year. Same-store sales — a key benchmark — dropped 4 percent in July, the San Francisco-based retailer said in a statement Monday.

    Tasty Burger takes on Chipotle over burger concept

    • Boston-based Tasty Burger has sent a cease and desist letter to Chipotle (CMG) over its planned Tasty Made restaurant concept.
    • The six-store chain says the logo and trademark procured by Chipotle infringes on its rights.
    • Chipotle spokesperson Chris Arnold states the company is on solid footing and will move forward with the burger chain roll-out.

    Burger King to try Tex-Mex spin

    • Burger King is introducing a new burrito item on its national menu on August 15.
    • The Whopperrito features beef, tomatoes, onions, lettuce, and pickles surrounded by a flour tortilla.
    • The company says the Whopperito initiative is in response to a positive test of the concept, not competitive activity.
    • BMO Capital keeps an Outperform rating on Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD) on a favorable view of the impact of wing pricing
    • Wing prices fell modestly last week to mark the 12th consecutive week of lower prices.
    • The investment firm thinks the setup for wing prices looks attractive for BWLD over the next 12 to 18 months.
    • BMO sticks with a price target of $165 on the restaurant chain.
    • The positive outlook on wing pricing is also of interest to Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING) shareholders.

    Monster Worldwide gets eaten up by Randstad

    • Dutch human resources provider Randstad Holding (OTCPK:RANJY) has agreed tobuy Monster Worldwide (NYSE:MWW) for about $429M and intends to finance the acquisition through existing credit facilities.
    • The $3.40 per share in cash offer, representing a 22.7% premium to Monster's closing stock price on Monday, will see Monster continue operating as a separate and independent entity under its current name.

    'Suicide Squad' sets August record with $135M opening

    • (Anti)-Hero film Suicide Squad (TWX -0.4%) led the box office as expected, setting an August opening record with $135M, but facing what could be a steep drop after a critical savaging.
    • The film broke 2014's August record of $94.3M set by Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy by logging $135.1M in grosses, and bested second-week films Jason Bourne(CMCSA -0.4%, No. 2 with $22.7M) and Bad Moms (STX, No. 3 with $14.2M).
    • The top five was rounded out by The Secret Life of Pets (NASDAQ:CMCSA), with $11.6M in its fifth week ($319.6M cumulative) and Star Trek Beyond (VIA -2.5%VIAB-2.2%), with $10.2M in its third week ($127.9M cumulative).
    • Suicide Squad has just a 25% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a mixed 40 rating on Metacritic, but a B+ CinemaScore.

    Hulu focusing on subscriptions, ending free TV offering

    • Coinciding with the extension of its deal with Yahoo, Hulu is bringing its free TV viewing service to an end.
    • The streaming service — co-owned by NBCUniversal (CMCSA -0.6%), Disney (DIS+0.2%), and Fox (FOX -0.8%FOXA -0.7%), being joined by Time Warner (TWX -0.5%) — will make its free content available through distribution partners including Comcast, and Yahoo (YHOO -0.1%) will host ad-supported content on Yahoo View.
    • It's an unsurprising next step from Hulu, which has made its free content all but impossible to locate on the service as it promoted its subscription tiers (ad-light and ad-free for $7.99/month and $11.99/month respectively) and pushed its competition with Netflix and Amazon Prime.
    • That new offering from Yahoo -- essentially a relaunch of its recently shuttered Yahoo Screen — will serve as the destination for recent episodes of key programs that used to be available on Hulu as well. It will feature the five most recent episodes of shows from ABC, NBC and Fox (eight days after original airing).

    Survey: T-Mobile, Sprint to benefit from building iPhone demand

    • Swelling demand for a new iPhone is likely not only to boost Apple, but also to send subscribers to T-Mobile (TMUS -0.2%) and Sprint (S +0.6%), according to a survey from New Street Research.
    • Some 10% of the firm's respondents suggest they plan to switch carriers in the next few months, suggesting industry churn of about 2.5% in Q4, it said.
    • And switching activity benefits the "share takers" vs. the share losers — AT&T (T -0.6%) and Verizon (VZ -0.1%).
    • Those two sector leaders have been focusing on more profitable customers, whereas Sprint and T-Mobile are trying to take customer share from the big two.
    • Some 22% of respondents said they would buy the new iPhone upon release or within the next few months; of those 5% plan to switch carriers in doing so. And 25% of respondents are specifically waiting for a new iPhone to upgrade their device.

  185. /CL- That was a nice $250 Phil! I stopped out at $43.02 and am waiting to see if it can break below $43 before I do anything else, especially since the indices are climbing. I had a long earlier at about 5:50 am when it popped $43 and I rode that up to $43.20 before stopping out, so it's been a decent morning and I'm off to get my McMuffins. Also long on NG now at $2.699, so hoping that one will pay off as it has been! 


  186. /NG not a conviction play – keep that in mind.  Quick stop below $2.70 and $2.675 would be the next long line.