Best Performance?
Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob
Summary
- Discussion of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
- July 20th market inflection; Latest BLS Jobs Report.
- Demographics of the Job Market; Federal Witholding Taxes.
- Miscalculated Modeling; NILF's.
Excerpt:
The Demographics of Cheap Labor?
Ah, but it gets better, as it always does… from Table A-9: Married men -162K + Married women -287K = -449K less married people employed.
However, some of that slack was taken up by single women who maintain a family +267K; specifically 25-54 yrs +13K; and 16-19 yrs of +205K, so most of those single women supporting a family were teenagers.
It seems we have found those "self employed" who quit their "other part time job", which was reported as "non economic", to take "better paying" private sector jobs.
So in essence, the flash number provided for the "best job market in decades" MSM narrative of +255K, is comprised of 86% teenagers, the majority of which were unwed teenage mothers, and 14% seniors, while prime earners or REAL JOBS declined +120K. Quite the performance by the "best job market in decades".
Better paying jobs means wages were reported on the rise. Establishment data summary table B showed a +0.8% monthly increase in payrolls. Doubting Thomases might say it's time to play Truth or Consequences or just avoid stepping in the BLS BS?
Taxes?
Above note, Federal with-holding taxes, Yoy Roc (Rate of Change – red line) trending down since mid 2013 and currently negative. In point of fact…
July 2015 179,344 m
June 2016 180,617 m
July 2016 177,501 m
Decreasing Mom [month over month] and Yoy [year over year], this means growth is in contraction or declining, which is the opposite of growing, so the wage increase claim is pure BS, er BLS statistical modeling nonsense. Proving that perhaps that "best performance" might be a charade of sorts?
Birth and Death?
Pouring salt in the wound, the estimated number +255K is pulled out of the rear end of someone's model. Unfortunately not a Hollywood or runway model, but a birth death model to be exact.
More bad news, +140K, or 55% of the +255K new jobs, are jobs arbitrarily added to the number by the birth-death model. If you neutralize the birth-death model's contribution, new jobs were actually, a paltry +95K.
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