Courtesy of Mish.
On August 7, the Wall Street Journal showed results of a poll on voter discord. The Journal concluded “Voter Discord Isn’t Over Wages“.
The Journal noted that in 2008 and 2009, 80% of those polled cited the economy as the biggest issue facing the country.
In a recent WSJ/NBC poll, the number was down to 27%. Citing wage increases, the Journal concluded “[discord] isn’t really about pocketbooks anymore.”
I challenged that notion in Is Voter Discord Over Jobs and Wages?
There are more visible problems thus more problems for people to choose. Race relations have gone downhill. There have been more shootings.
Social discord is about something, most likely jobs and wages, not racial incidents. Give voters enough choices and many will pick the hot topic of the day.
Proof comes from the popularity of Trump in the US and Brexit in the UK. If voters really believed the economy was improving, Trump would not have won the nomination with his message “Make America Great Again”.
The Journal says “Thanks largely to falling gas prices in recent years, pay increases are well above inflation.”
Really? What about rent? Obamacare? Education? Student debt? Is the CPI remotely accurate? What about benefits? And how many people have to work multiple part-time jobs to make ends meet?
Are voters so angry about so many things they do not even know what to blame?
Pocketbook Theory
Please consider my ending paragraph vs. the ending paragraph of the Wall Street Journal.
- WSJ: For many voters there are very serious and grim issues in this election, but it isn’t really about pocketbooks anymore.
- Mish: People may cite race relations, police attacks, security, etc., but those concerns have their roots in something else: a feeling of slipping economically behind over a decade or longer, as the rich get richer and richer.
Why the Take II?
I bring this up because of two lines buried in today’s report on Productivity and Costs, Second Quarter 2016 by the BLS.
