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Sunday, February 22, 2026

Convincing the Market Rate Hikes Coming is Damn Tough: Why?

Courtesy of Mish.

I frequently check CME Fedwatch for a look at market expectations of rate hikes.

When expectations rise, I typically laugh.

Given all the analysis on stunning job growth, inventory builds, Fed pontifications, and other drivel, interest rates ought to be at least 1% by now.

But here we are. Rate hike expectations are sinking fast … again.

This evening, just for grins, I decided to check what market participants thought of rates hikes.

September 2016

fedwatch 2016-08-10A

The much touted “September rate hike on the table” message is now dead on arrival.

OK, but when?


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