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Wednesday, December 17, 2025

FRBNY 3rd Quarter Nowcast 2.8%, 4th Quarter Forecast 1.7%; Should the Fed Hike?

Courtesy of Mish.

The large divergence between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast and the New York Fed Nowcast remains.

The former upped its forecast today from 3.2% to 3.5% while the Nowcast remains at 2.8% from a week ago.

In addition, the initial Nowcast for 4th quarter is a not so robust 2.0%.



Nowcast September 2, 2016 Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2016:Q3, unchanged from last week.
  • The Nowcast for 2016:Q4 is around 2%.
  • News from this week’s data releases provided mixed signals. The largest negative contributions came from a lower than expected ISM manufacturing release and lower than expected imports. Positive contributions came from higher than expected consumer spending and exports.

3rd Quarter Nowcast vs GDPNow

Nowcast 2016-09-02A

GDPNow updates far more frequently, but has not started to project 4th quarter. I did not place all the data points for GDPNow.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter Detail

Nowcast 2016-09-02B


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