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Sunday, December 21, 2025

3rd Quarter GDP: October Surprise? Which Way?

Courtesy of Mish.

The consensus 3rd quarter GDP estimates show U.S. economic growth may accelerate just before election day.

This prompted the Wall Street Journal to ponder the October Surprise?

But how can stronger growth be a surprise, if that is precisely what most economist expects?

october-surprise

October Surprise?

“Less than two weeks before Election Day, American voters could learn that economic growth has suddenly accelerated to its fastest pace in two years.”

Forecasts

  • A of Friday, forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers projected a 3.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate for GDP in the third quarter.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model on Thursday predicted a 3% growth rate.
  • Oxford Economics on Friday also estimated the third quarter’s growth rate at 3%.
  • Barclays on Friday predicted third-quarter growth at a more modest 2.6% pace.

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