Courtesy of Mish.
Real Clear Politics has Clinton ahead in Colorado. So does Nate Silver. So does the Washington Post.
I dove into the real story, and I conclude otherwise.
First, let’s take a look at how they see things.
- Real Clear Politics: Clinton +3.7
- Nate Silver: Clinton 64.5% Chance of Winning
- Washington Post: Clinton +3.7 (Citing RCP)
On September 19, Washington Post writer Chris Cillizza proclaimed Map is Moving Toward Trump. But Not Enough. Not Yet.
Two things are now true about the 2016 political map:
- Donald Trump is making polling gains in key swing states.
- Hillary Clinton remains in the driver’s seat.
That analysis essentially concludes the shift in momentum doesn’t matter yet. Even worse, Cillizza accept a poll averages by RCP as representative of facts, without any investigation.
Meme of the Day
The meme of the day (campaign actually), espoused by Cillizza and many others, is that Trump needs to hold every state he has, then pick up more states in Hillary’s column.
What if that meme is ass backwards?
