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GDP Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% for 3rd Quarter, 1.22% for 4th Quarter

By Ilene
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Courtesy of Mish.

GDP estimates for third and fourth quarter are now in a free-fall.

Last Friday the FRBNY Nowcast was in a blackout period because of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Today we see estimates tor the last two weeks. Let’s also take a look at my guess of the estimates vs. how the estimates came in.



September 23, 2016 Nowcast Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% and 1.2% for 2016:Q3 and 2016:Q4, respectively.
  • Negative news since the report was last published two weeks ago pushed the nowcast down 0.5 percentage point for both Q3 and Q4.
  • The largest negative contributions over the last two weeks came from manufacturing, retail sales, and housing and construction data.

3rd Quarter Nowcast vs. GDPNow

nowcast-2016-09-20a

GDPNow is still strongly divergent with the Nowcast. However, the current GDPNow estimate of 2.94% is down from the initial August 3 estimate of 3.64% and the peak estimate on August 5 of 3.80%.

3rd Quarter Nowcast Detail

nowcast-2016-09-20b


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