Courtesy of Mish.
A week ago, we discussed the near-convergence of the the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for third quarter GDP (then at 2.4%) with the FRBNY Nowcast forecast at 2.2%.
We have now seen convergence, and then some.
At its maximum, GDPNow was a full percentage point higher than the Nowcast. Now, the GDPNow forecast is slightly below Nowcast.
GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.1 Percent — October 7, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 7, down from 2.2 percent on October 5. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth fell from 0.28 percentage points to 0.24 percentage points after this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of real government spending growth fell from 0.1 percent to –0.1 percent following this morning’s employment release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Huge Slide
The top to bottom decline in GDPNow went from 3.8% on August 5 to 2.1% on October 7. That’s a decline of 1.7 percentage points.
