-3.8 C
New York
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
HomeMarkets
MarketsPerspectives

GDPNow Forecast Inches Up from 2.0 Percent to 2.1 Percent

By Ilene
0
58
psw-placeholder
psw-placeholder

Courtesy of Mish.

As expected in this corner, the net effects of economic reports of the week balanced out to much ado about nothing.

The overall result of the week’s reports was a rise in the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model from 2.0% to 2.1%.

Latest forecast: 2.1 percent — October 27, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.1 percent on October 27, up from 2.0 percent on October 19. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.15 percentage points to 0.07 percentage points after yesterday’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was partly offset by a decline in the forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.23 percentage points to 0.03 percentage points after the Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators release and its advance durable manufacturing report this morning.

GDPNow Evolution

gdpnow-2016-10-27

Gaming the Reports

Gaming the effect of economic reports on GDP and gaming the effect of economic reports on GDP estimates are two different things!

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) October 26, 2016

Yesterday, in US Trade Deficit Sinks 5.2%; Gaming the GDP Effect; Food for Thought, I estimated the advance trade report would add 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to third quarter estimates.

The actual effect on the GDPNow model was +0.22 percentage points. The overall net effect from yesterday (new home sales and the three advance reports was no change).

gdpnow-2016-10-27a


Continue reading here…

Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Stay Connected

149,836FansLike
396,312FollowersFollow
2,510SubscribersSubscribe

Latest Articles

Load more

Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Contact us: support@philstockworld.com

© Copyright - PSW, LLC.

2025
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x