Archive for November, 2016

OC Premium Small Companies Mandate October 2016 Commentary

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

OC Premium Small Companies Mandate commentary for the month ended October 31, 2016.

OC Premium Small Companies Mandate – Performance Review

Global and local markets have been in ‘risk-off’ mode in the run-up to the US Presidential election and OC was not immune to the sell-off with the OC Premium Small Companies Mandate finishing the month down 5.3%. The Mandate finished the month slightly behind the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index which returned -4.7% and in line with the S&P/ASX Small Industrials Index which also returned -5.3%, and was weighed on by some stock-specific news discussed below. The Mandate has an excellent long-term track record having returned +20.7% p.a. over the past five years. This is well ahead of both the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index and the S&P/ASX Small Industrials Index which have returned +2.7% and +11.0%, respectively, over the same time horizon.

OC Premium Small Companies Mandate

Ardent Leisure (AAD, -27.1%) – was severely impacted by a tragic incident at its Dreamworld theme park on the Gold Coast. The incident in late October claimed the lives of four customers and Dreamworld has remained closed pending investigations by relevant authorities. It is regrettable that a Mandate holding has been involved in such as heart-breaking event and there remain several unknowns about the incident. The share price reaction has been severe given the Theme Parks division represents less than 25% of group earnings in FY 2017, but is perhaps understandable in light of the tragic event and the ongoing uncertainty about AAD’s level of culpability. Ironically, AAD’s new Managing Director, Deborah Thomas, was just starting to earn her stripes with the investment community following a challenging 12-18 months, bolstered by the disposal of the Good Life Health Clubs business for a credible price and the Marinas sale entering the “final stages of negotiations with a suitable purchaser”. These two disposals would leave AAD well capitalised to focus on the growth of the Main Event Entertainment business, one of the fastest growing bowling anchored entertainment destinations in the US, which we believe will be the mainstay of AAD for many years to come. We will follow developments around Dreamworld closely, but believe the stock has been oversold.

Healthscope (HSO, -28.0%) – issued an operational earnings downgrade during the month and we have exited our position in the stock. HSO tempered earnings expectations saying it had experienced…
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Technical Alert: Ford Finally Has A Good Day

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • $12.88 – July 29 high
  • $12.86 – July 28 high
  • $12.80 – Intraday high as of 12:06 PM
  • $12.70 – Current price as of 12:06 PM
  • $12.18 – Intraday low as of 12:06 PM
  • $11.96 – Wednesday close

Posted-In: Technicals Intraday Update Movers Trading Ideas





News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Jumps Most Since February on OPEC Deal as Treasuries Retreat (Bloomberg)

Crude oil surged as OPEC ministers forged a deal to reduce production, igniting a rally in global energy stocks. Meanwhile, Treasuries fell and the dollar extended its advance as a private report showed U.S. companies hired faster than was forecast in November.

Oil, dollar and bond yields sharply higher after OPEC deal (Reuters)

Crude prices, the dollar and bond yields were sharply elevated early on Thursday after OPEC agreed to a deal to reduce output to clear a supply glut that has crunched oil prices and stoked global deflationary pressures.

What the OPEC Production Cut Will Really Mean for Oil Prices (Fortune)

Crude oil prices–and the shares of U.S. oil and gas companies–surged over 8% Wednesday as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut its output by some 1.2 million barrels a day to end a global glut.

Euro-Area Inflation Accelerates Before Key ECB Decision on QE (Bloomberg)

Euro-area inflation accelerated in November, continuing its slow improvement before a crucial European Central Bank meeting next week.

OPEC in first joint oil cut with Russia since 2001, Saudis take 'big hit' (Reuters)

OPEC has agreed its first oil output cuts since 2008 after Saudi Arabia accepted "a big hit" on its production and dropped its demand on arch-rival Iran to slash output, pushing up crude prices by around 10 percent.

Leaner and meaner: U.S. shale greater threat to OPEC after oil price war (Reuters)

In a corner of the prolific Bakken shale play in North Dakota, oil companies can now pump crude at a price almost as low as that enjoyed by OPEC giants Iran and Iraq.

Wall Street Wins Again as Trump Picks Bankers, Billionaires (Bloomberg)

After Donald Trump ridiculed Wall Street on the campaign trail, the President-elect tapped former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive Steven Mnuchin to be his Treasury secretary and billionaire investor Wilbur Ross to lead the Commerce Department. Trump even met with Goldman Sachs President Gary Cohn inside Trump Tower.


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The Real Reasons Why Another American Civil War Is Possible

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

You have to hand it to the regressive left, when they conjure propaganda they really know how to run with it. When their indoctrination doesn’t take, and the public stops them cold with a wall of skepticism, they don’t give up! No — the little buggers double down and go for broke!

I would point out, however, that this seemingly boundless drive to forsake all logic and reason in the name of ideology is not due to these people being special in their ambition. Rather, they are following a somewhat successful historic model; the model of communism. And by successful, I mean successfully destructive.

With Donald Trump on the way to the White House in January, along with a Republican majority in Congress and the Senate, leftists long accustomed to dominating the public narrative through the mainstream media have found themselves without leverage. Now, they must resort to ankle biting with efforts like the “fake news” meme, which is designed to undermine the alternative media through ad hominem.  Obviously this will fail.  It is far too late for the mainstream media to gain back any social capital, and they will have to adapt or die out.

With this avenue closing for the left, the next stage will be direct asymmetrics; they will use subversion at a more localized level; working to provoke “marginalized” groups into taking extreme action in order to illicit a negative and totalitarian response from conservatives.

I am rather well versed on the history of communist insurgencies, and one simple reality that consistently stands out to me is that wherever communist movements exist, war follows.  They may claim to be peaceful in their aims and methods, they may claim to want what is best for society as a whole, but when these movements are denied access to social evolution, they almost always revert to violent means.  The primary reason for this, I believe, is that they really do assume at their very core that their ideal is the ONLY ideal.

They think they are heroes, awakened to a world view that the rest of us are incapable of comprehending. In their minds, anyone seeking to obstruct them is either dangerously ignorant or a fascist hellbent on sabotaging humanity’s “natural progression” into the leftist utopia.   Therefore any and all


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China Curbs Gold Imports To Slow Capital Flight

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While all eyes were on India (as rumors swirled of an imminent gold import ban), The FT reports that China curbed gold imports in the wake of government attempts to clamp down on capital leaving the country, according to traders and bankers.

Some banks with licences have recently had difficulty obtaining approval to import gold, they said — a move tied to China’s attempts to stop a weakening renminbi by tightening outflows of dollars, the banks added.

The hit to gold imports comes as China tightens restrictions on overseas deals by state-owned companies in an effort to limit capital outflows that has seen the renminbi fall to its lowest against the dollar in eight years.

When the headline hit, gold futures legged lower, but are rebounding…

As The FT notes, quotas for importing gold have been cut during quarterly assessments this year. Banks also have dollar quotas, some of which must be used when buying gold.

The limits on imports bite as the weakening renminbi raises Chinese investors’ interest in gold. Lower gold prices have also triggered more buying.

The combination of tighter quotas and an uptick in demand caused the premium for gold in China over the international gold price to jump as high as $46 in the past few weeks, according to data from Wind Information. Normal levels are about $2 to $4.

In an effort to ease that premium, Chinese banks have been allowed to import gold under their quotas using the offshore renminbi, one banker said. Although still high, the premium for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has since fallen to $26, according to Wind data.

If the restrictions on imports are sustained that could raise questions about China’s moves to open its gold market to international traders. The world’s largest consumer of the precious metal has moved to have a greater voice over the price of gold.





Gold Slips As China Curbs Imports To Slow Capital Flight

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

While all eyes were on India (as rumors swirled of an imminent gold import ban), The FT reports that China curbed gold imports in the wake of government attempts to clamp down on capital leaving the country, according to traders and bankers.

Some banks with licences have recently had difficulty obtaining approval to import gold, they said — a move tied to China’s attempts to stop a weakening renminbi by tightening outflows of dollars, the banks added.

The hit to gold imports comes as China tightens restrictions on overseas deals by state-owned companies in an effort to limit capital outflows that has seen the renminbi fall to its lowest against the dollar in eight years.

When the headline hit, gold futures legged lower, but are rebounding…

As The FT notes, quotas for importing gold have been cut during quarterly assessments this year. Banks also have dollar quotas, some of which must be used when buying gold.

The limits on imports bite as the weakening renminbi raises Chinese investors’ interest in gold. Lower gold prices have also triggered more buying.

The combination of tighter quotas and an uptick in demand caused the premium for gold in China over the international gold price to jump as high as $46 in the past few weeks, according to data from Wind Information. Normal levels are about $2 to $4.

In an effort to ease that premium, Chinese banks have been allowed to import gold under their quotas using the offshore renminbi, one banker said. Although still high, the premium for gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange has since fallen to $26, according to Wind data.

If the restrictions on imports are sustained that could raise questions about China’s moves to open its gold market to international traders. The world’s largest consumer of the precious metal has moved to have a greater voice over the price of gold.





$1 Trillion Money Manager Downplays The OPEC Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The market should not be overly enthusiastic over today’s oil price surge on reports that OPEC has managed to reach some kind of a deal to reduce supply, David Hunt, chief executive at asset manager PGIM, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday.

Hunt, CEO of the asset management group that manages US$1 trillion in assets, said the oil price surge today is “probably not” sustainable.

Earlier today, OPEC managed to reach the much-hyped agreement to cut output in a bid to boost oil prices. The ministerial meeting in Vienna is said to have clinched a deal to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day, but the deal may come with a condition that non-OPEC producers also cut production, by some 600,000 bpd.

Oil prices are soaring on the OPEC deal news, and as of 10:50 AM (EST), WTI Crude was surging 7.21 percent at US$48.49, and Brent Crude was soaring by 7.65 percent at US$50.94, staying above the US$50 mark for a couple of hours now.

“For us who are long-term investors, we tend to look at the group of people who are gathering in Vienna and say ‘they’re fighting against history… The cost of producing crude, largely due to fracking technology, has dramatically changed the marginal economics of oil,” Hunt told Bloomberg Television.

According to Hunt, long-term investors like PGIM see the longer-run market fundamentals and sentiment as “much more important than whether we get a bounce of a couple of dollars on Brent today or not. Fundamentally the economics of oil have changed and we now need to work that through how different industries are pricing, and how commodities are priced on the basis of that”.

Hunt also cautioned against investors being too optimistic in the long run about equity indexes’ continued rally since Donald Trump was elected U.S. President.





Obama Still Can’t Process Hillary’s Loss; Blames “Fox News In Every Bar And Restaurant”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Obama apparently still hasn’t come to terms with Hillary’s stunning loss on November 8th.  When asked about the 2016 election by Rolling Stone magazine in a recent interview, Obama relayed his view that “Fox News in every bar and restaurant in big chunks of the country” was a big part of the reason democrats lost the White House.

In this election, [they] turned out in huge numbers for Trump. And I think that part of it has to do with our inability, our failure, to reach those voters effectively. Part of it is Fox News in every bar and restaurant in big chunks of the country, but part of it is also Democrats not working at a grassroots level, being in there, showing up, making arguments. That part of the critique of the Democratic Party is accurate. We spend a lot of time focused on international policy and national policy and less time being on the ground. And when we’re on the ground, we do well. This is why I won Iowa.

Yes, because Fox News didn’t exist in 2008 and 2012 in the MidWest and CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, NYT, Reuters, AP, etc., etc., etc. are all extremely impartial news outlets…not extensions of the democratic party. 

Pres Obama blames ‘Fox News being in every bar and restaurant’ as to why Democrats lost the election pic.twitter.com/eaquFLdkP5

— FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) November 30, 2016

No, it certainly can’t be that the following memo, revealed by WikiLeaks that was sent to pretty much everyone in the mainstream media and intended to “give reporters there first thoughts” and “frame the HRC message and race”, implies any sort of bias in the overwhelming majority of the media outlets in the U.S.  God forbid that reporters be allowed to form their own “first thoughts”…no, first impressions are too important and had to force fed to the press by Hillary’s team.   

But sure, Obama, Fox News is definitely the problem…

Hillary

Oddly, we would note that Fox News was the one major media outlet excluded from Hillary’s invite list…hmmm





Philadelphia City Attorney Linked To Anti-Trump Grafitti

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Philadelphia police have launched an investigation into an assistant city attorney in connection with anti-Trump graffiti found on the side of an upscale supermarket in Chestnut Hill on November 25th, according to the Inquirer; meanwhile an angry local Republican Party wants him fired.

Surveillance footage released overnight, shows two men walking along in Chestnut Hill, around midnight on Friday by the Fresh Market located at 8200 Germantown Avenue. One wears a blue blazer, khakis and a rakishly-tied scarf, and carries a glass of wine. What at first appeared like a calm end to a night out in an upscale part of the city, changed when the second man was seen spray painting a message on the wall of a newly-constructed grocery store: “Fuck Trump.”

The damage is estimated at between $3,000 and $10,000.

While the sprayer remains unidentified, the man in the blazer turns out to be Assistant City Solicitor Duncan Lloyd. No charges have been filed and as of Wednesday evening, the city was awaiting more information before taking any administrative action.

According to Philly.com, First Deputy City Solicitor Craig Straw confirmed Lloyd, who has worked for the law department since 2011, is one of two men in the video. “We do not condone this type of behavior from our employees,” Straw said. “To my knowledge, Mr. Lloyd has already contacted the Philadelphia Police and is cooperating with them. We will decide on a course of action once we obtain more information about the investigation.”

Lloyd, 32, is a University of Pennsylvania and Temple’s Beasley School of Law graduated, according to his Linkedin page and makes $63,207 a year, representing the city mostly in federal and state discrimination lawsuits. On his Linkedin page he wrote of the job, “As a result of these responsibilities, I hear the craziest stories – ones regularly driven by the unreasonable mores of lust, anger, passion, and envy.”

This incident is hardly news: The Inquirer reports that since election day, anti-Trump graffiti has been reported throughout the city. In early November, spray-painted swastikas, racist graffiti and references to Donald Trump and Nazi Germany appeared in South Philadelphia. Anti-Trump graffiti has been reported on bus shelters and on the exterior wall of City Hall, where “Not my President,” was spray painted and removed Nov. 12. Mayor Kenney


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A MeSSaGe To SaNTa TRuMP…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

SANTA TRUMP





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

 

How Does the Stock Market Bottom?

Courtesy of 

Despite the recent selloff, things are still relatively fine. I know nobody wants to hear this right now, but the S&P 500 is still up double digits over the last year and 36% over the last three years. What has people shook, understandably, is the speed of this decline.

Depending on where stocks close today, we could be looking at a 10% haircut in just five sessions. Over the last 20 years, this only happened during the Yuan devaluation in 2015, the Eurozone crisis in 2011, the GFC (global financial crisis) in ’08 and ’09, and the dotcom bubble in ’00, &rsqu...



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Zero Hedge

NYSE Announces Disaster-Recovery Test Due To Virus Fears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In a somewhat shocking sounding move, given administration officials' ongoing effort to calm the public fears over the spread of Covid-19, The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will commence disaster-recovery testing in its Cermak Data Center on March 7 amid coronavirus concern, Fox Business reports in a tweet, citing the exchange.

During this test, NYSE will facilitate electronic Core Open and Closing Auctions as if the 11 Wall Stree...



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ValueWalk

Cities With The Most 'New' And Tenured Homeowners

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Homeownership is a major investment. Not just financially, but when a person or family purchases a home, they’re investing years – if not decades – in that particular community. 55places wanted to find out which real estate markets are luring in new homebuyers, and which ones are dominated by owners that haven’t moved in decades. The study analyzed residency data in more than 300 US cities and revealed the top 10 cities with the most tenured homeowners – residents who’ve lived in and owned their home for more than 30 years – are sprinkled across ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Financial Crisis Deja Vu: Home Construction Index Double Top?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Most of us remember the 2007-2009 financial crisis because of the collapse in home prices and its effect on the economy.

One key sector that tipped off that crisis was the home builders.

The home builders are an integral piece to our economy and often signal “all clears” or “short-term warnings” to investors based on their economic health and how the index trades.

In today’s chart, we highlight the Dow Jones Home Construction Index. It has climbed all the way back to its pre-crisis highs… BUT it immediately reversed lower from there.

This raises concerns about a double top.

This pr...



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Insider Scoop

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Plunge Amid Coronavirus Fears

Courtesy of Benzinga

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. South Korea confirmed 256 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, while China reported an additional 327 new cases. Data on U.S. international trade in goods for January, wholesale inventories for January and consumer spending for January will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Chicago PMI for February is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET, while the University of Michigan's consumer sentime...



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Biotech & Health

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

 

Could coronavirus really trigger a recession?

Coronavirus seems to be on a collision course with the US economy and its 12-year bull market. AP Photo/Ng Han Guan

Courtesy of Michael Walden, North Carolina State University

Fears are growing that the new coronavirus will infect the U.S. economy.

A major U.S. stock market index posted its biggest two-day drop on record, erasing all the gains from the previous two months; ...



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The Technical Traders

SPY Breaks Below Fibonacci Bearish Trigger Level

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we ...



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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Chart School

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.

We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.






There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it ...

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Members' Corner

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

 

Threats to democracy: oligarchy, feudalism, dictatorship

Courtesy of David Brin, Contrary Brin Blog 

Fascinating and important to consider, since it is probably one of the reasons why the world aristocracy is pulling its all-out putsch right now… “Trillions will be inherited over the coming decades, further widening the wealth gap,” reports the Los Angeles Times. The beneficiaries aren’t all that young themselves. From 1989 to 2016, U.S. households inherited more than $8.5 trillion. Over that time, the average age of recipients rose by a decade to 51. More ...



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Digital Currencies

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

 

Altcoin season 2.0: why bitcoin has been outgunned by crypto rivals since new year

‘We have you surrounded!’ Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

When bitcoin was trading at the dizzying heights of almost US$2...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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