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FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

Courtesy of Mish.

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.

November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2016:Q4.
  • Overall positive news during the last two weeks pushed the nowcast for Q4 up 0.2 percentage point.
  • Manufacturers’ shipments and ISM manufacturing survey data had the largest positive contributions in the last two weeks.

nowcast-2016-11-04a

November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Detail

nowcast-2016-11-04b

Mish Comments

The GDPNow Forecast rose from 2.1% to 3.1% since the last estimate.  0.8 percentage points was due to auto sales.

The FRBNY Nowcast report does not even factor in auto sales.


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