Courtesy of Mish.
In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.
November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Highlights
- The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2016:Q4.
- Overall positive news during the last two weeks pushed the nowcast for Q4 up 0.2 percentage point.
- Manufacturers’ shipments and ISM manufacturing survey data had the largest positive contributions in the last two weeks.
November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Detail
Mish Comments
The GDPNow Forecast rose from 2.1% to 3.1% since the last estimate. 0.8 percentage points was due to auto sales.
The FRBNY Nowcast report does not even factor in auto sales.




