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Saturday, May 4, 2024

The Candidate 2016? Part Two

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Continuing from Part 1… Part 2 of 3

Summary

Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:

  • Final 2016 Presidential Candidates.
  • Candidates Economic Advisory.
  • The Election as a Market Catalyst.

Vote Donald Trump?

"What is the worst thing about Donald Trump? The lies? The racist stereotypes? The misogyny? The alleged gropings? The apparent refusal to accept democratic outcomes? All these are bad enough. But they’re not the worst. The worst thing about Donald Trump is that he’s the man in the mirror.

We love to horrify ourselves with his excesses, and to see him as a monstrous outlier, the polar opposite of everything a modern, civilised society represents. But he is nothing of the kind. He is the distillation of all that we have been induced to desire and admire. Trump is so repulsive not because he offends our civilisation’s most basic values, but because he embodies them.

Trump personifies the traits promoted by the media and corporate worlds he affects to revile; the worlds that created him.  Donald Trump is not an outlier, but the distillation of our dominant values." – The Man in The Mirror 

Is there truth in that posit? Is this divisive political rancor? Is overcoming the fears of an electorate, the most convenient thing for a candidate to do? Trumps ascendance validates that even for the most unlikely of candidates, influencing an electorate is child's play.  "Get em out of here, we will build a wall and, make America great again", come to mind.
 

Above, Branco's Trump tilt, depicts each candidates perceived "biggest problem". 

Trump's Economic Brain Trust?

As for who is advising the candidates in economic matters, Trump is aligned with Larry Kudlow and Stephen Moore in an ad hoc fashion. Kudlow is highly visible on CNBC, Moore from the Heritage Foundation less so.

Kudlow has been described as, a pro Reaganomics stock market cheerleader. Aside from Kudlow's public admissions to substance abuse and addiction, and being fired from Bear Stearns for such, he seems to have a penchant of oft calling the economy and markets wrong by 180 degrees
 


When asked how Trump planned on balancing his budget [within seven years] and paying for large tax cuts, Moore responded, I’m going to press as hard as possible to [eliminate the agencies].  Moore's position is that major cabinet level agencies should be eliminated. Specifically the departments of Commerce, Education and Energy. Together, these agencies employ an estimated 150K people, and they oversee things ranging from nuclear security to federal student loans to the U.S. patent system. – Huffington Post Interview
 

Judging from Trumponomics, oft sounding like this, and other than their economic polarity shifting 180 degrees during this process, neither adviser has changed much in the past few years.  To wit, both Kudlow and Moore previously attacked Trump's economic plans, now that Trump has ascended, they are both on board.

"In August, the two legendarily libertarian-minded economists attacked Trump, focusing on what they called Trump's "Fortress America platform."… Months later, as Trump rose in the polls, Kudlow and Moore joined the ranks of Trump's biggest boosters – and not because Trump changed his views. – National Review

Is the 180 degree polarity spin of Trump's economic brain trust, cause for concern? Is Trump's economic brain trust one which will provide proper future guidance for our nation?  What consequence might their future actions have on the economy and markets?

Vote Hillary Clinton?

"We all know that Americans hate Hillary Clinton just about as much as they hate Donald Trump.  From the perspective of Trump supporters, she is “Crooked Hillary,” who used her private email server to conduct State Department business (which, Trump believes, disqualifies her for the presidency) and who apparently helped kill Vincent Foster, among numerous other criminal acts.

From the perspective of Bernie Sanders’ forces, she gave speeches to fat cats, is a military hawk who voted for the Iraq War, grovels for money, gets counsel from squirrely Wall Street bankers and rigged the delegate selection. This much we understand: To her detractors, Hillary Clinton is the devil incarnate." – Bill Moyers 

Hillary's ascendance validates that a cold calculating career politician, usually has a bifurcated nature. viz. two email services, two stories, two sides, one position private, the other public, on the same issue.

Is Bill Moyer's assertion true? Are Clinton's detractors mired in divisive political rancor? Does an electorate manage to overlook a career politicians "duplicity" in the hope, that very talent might get the job done "on the hill" to their benefit? The three biggest lies: I love you, the checks in the mail and I promise I won't… and "Director Comey said my answers were truthful" come to mind.

 

Above Heller's Hillary tilt depicts each candidates perceived "message".

Clinton's Economic Brain Trust?

Clinton appears to consult regularly with an all star advisory group. Digging down, at the core are Michael Shapiro (29) and Michael Schmidt (30), who filter the economic advice Clinton receives and help her shape policy proposals.  

Touting the theories of "secular stagnation" and a "shortage of skilled American workers", Clinton has a predilection towards importation of foreign labor. With Clintonomics oft sounding like this, do Hillary's principle adviser's lack the life experience necessary to be in such a position? 

Those two "utes" and Hillary also get informal support from Larry Summers, Bob Rubin and Gary Gensler.  Trebek queries: "What legislation does this trio have in common?"

1) Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking Act 1994, repealed provisions of the McFadden Act and the Douglas Amendment. Thus allowing bank holding companies to expand nationwide.

2) Financial Services Act 1999, repealed portions of the Glass-Steagall and Bank Holding Company Acts. Thus allowing banks to develop and sell mortgage backed instruments.

3) Commodities Futures Modernization Act 2000, repealed the 1982 Shad-Johnson Accord. Thus exempting most OTC derivatives from regulation, in particular Credit Default Swaps.

Answer: What is banking deregulation legislation which became principal factors and culminated in, the great financial collapse of 2008.  
 


Above right to left, Moe Howard, Larry Fine, Emil Sitka and Schemp Howard. Bet you don't know who the 4th stooge really is?

Add to the trio above, a dash of Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink.  This major Clinton campaign contributor and economic adviser is an advocate for budget austerity and Social Security privatization. Although Fink insists, “I don’t have the skill set to be the next Treasury secretary”, aNaked Capitalism reported, he is openly currying favor and positioning be our next Secretary of The Treasury. 

Is Clinton's economic brain trust one which will provide proper future guidance for our nation? What consequence might their future actions have on the economy and markets?

Vote the Veep?

In addition to being one heart beat away, as President of the Senate, the VP casts a vote in the event of a Senate deadlock. 

Trump's VP nominee Mike Pence advocates austerity budgeting; opposed the 2008 bailout of big banks following the GFC; criticized Dodd-Frank; voted against the 2009 Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

Pence is staunchly pro-life and has worked to diminish women’s access to abortion. Pence attempted to pass the Religious Freedom Restoration Act to allow businesses to refuse to serve people based on religious beliefs, and use this as a defense if they were sued. 

Pence on gay's in the military: “Homosexuality is incompatible with military service because the presence of homosexuals in the ranks weakens unit cohesion.” Pence called for Congress to fund gay conversion therapy rather than HIV treatment programs.

As for Clinton's VP nominee Tim Kaine, with regard to liquidity requirements he has claimed that large banks outside of the big six, were being discriminated against due to their size.  Kaine has argued that smaller banks should be exempt from new consumer protection rules, which would leave them less regulated than before the GFC.

Kaine has said that he is against abortion on a personal level, but has a pro-choice voting record. Kaine fought against a 2006 proposal to ban same sex marriage in Virginia, and said he supported gay marriage in 2013, just after Clinton voiced her support.

Vote Alternative or Andrew?

Are "Tweedle-dee and dum" looking a bit too familiar? Could third party candidates be a viable alternative? Perhaps one needs to take a closer look? This segment of Last Week With John Oliver, goes in depth on Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein. In keeping with this elections motif, the commentary made by both candidates, might leave one dazed, confused and scratching their head, as to how either is considered, a serious alternative.

If one thought the 2016 election couldn't get any crazier, they just haven't dug deep enough. Its time to ferret out an "alternative" candidate who shares his ET, Sasquatch, Mars Colony and Time Travel experiences as part of his platform. On April 30th, Esquire did a piece on Andrew Basiago called Meet the Time Traveling Presidential Candidate. Does it get any better than, a Chrononaut presidential candidate who has specific platform policy spelled out in the form of 100 proposals, for time travel, ET's etc?

Because you just can't make this kinda stuff up, this presidential elections class of candidates, might leave voters of conscience feeling as if they are "Archons" and "not of the body" or somewhat like this. Thus, the joke, if you want to get laid, call an Ancient Astronaut theorist, because they always say… YES!, truly has new meaning in this years election.

More to come tomorrow in Part 3, the finale.

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