Courtesy of Mish.
As readers know, I changed my mind on the likelihood of Trump winning following a disastrous first debate. I flipped back to possible, following a Wikileaks disclosure culminating in FBI director James Comey’s decision to reopen the case against Hillary.
My own case for Trump all along had been about social mood. I expected Trump to decisively win the rust belt and he did. My recent mistake was believing polls, rather than my own carefully presented thesis.
Let’s return to my May 23, 2016 article Grim Election Map for Trump? Fox Analyst vs. RCP vs. Mish just for grins (mine) to see how I felt about things back then.
Note: This is an exact repeat of the entire post until a note at the end following a label “New Comments“.
Juan Williams
To win the 270 votes needed to claim victory in the electoral college, Trump will have to keep every single state won by Romney — including Arizona and Georgia — and find 64 more electoral votes somewhere.
The question is where? If Trump holds all the Romney states and carries Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, he still loses.
“Every preliminary electoral-map forecast this spring paints a bleak picture for Donald Trump in his effort to win the presidency against Hillary Clinton,” Dan Balz recently wrote in the Washington Post.
Balz pointed to separate forecasts from three veteran political handicappers who make the same prediction: Trump is going to get crushed by Clinton in an electoral college landslide.
Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg all predict a big Clinton victory. For example, Sabato projects Clinton to win 347 electoral votes to Trump’s 191.
RCP Map Analysis 2016-05-23
What a bunch of hooey. Let’s start with an RCP Tossup Map.
