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Sunday, April 12, 2026

I am the Market and I Approve this Rate Hike Message

Courtesy of Mish.

Following today’s retail sales report, the GDPNow Forecast for fourth quarter GDP rose from 3.1% to 3.3%.

In related news, Curve Watcher’s Anonymous notes a 90.6% probability of a rate hike in December.

Latest Forecast: 3.3 percent — November 15, 2016

gdpnow-2016-11-15

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on November 15, up from 3.1 percent on November 9. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

December Rate Hike Odds

fedwatch-2016-11-15

Next Hike Expected June 2017

fedwatch-2016-11-15a


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