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Nowcast 4th Quarter GDP Estimate 2.4 Percent vs. GDPNow 3.6%

By Ilene
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Courtesy of Mish

Last quarter (third quarter), a huge initial discrepancy between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the FRBNY Nowcast Model ultimately resolved in favor of Nowcast.

For the third quarter, GDPNow tracked as high as 3.8% with the Nowcast lower nearly every step of the way until convergence, much lower near the end. Once again, at the start of 4th quarter estimates, GDPNow is substantially higher. Will things play out the same way?

Nowcast November 18, 2016 Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.4% for 2016 Q4.
  • The current nowcast is 0.8 percentage point higher than two weeks ago, when the previous report was published.
  • The improvement was driven by large positive news from retail sales and housing starts.

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 GDP Estimate

nowcast-2016-11-18a

Nowcast 4th Quarter 2016 GDP Detail

nowcast-2016-11-18b

Synopsis

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