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Nowcast, GDPNow Diverge Widely Again: What Happened?

By Ilene
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Courtesy of Mish.

After converging, the gap between the GDPNow Model forecast and the FRBNY Nowcast model has widened again.

Both models reported today. GDPNow says 2.6% while Nowcast dips to 1.8%.

Nowcast also released its projection for 1st quarter of 2017. That forecast stands at 1.7%.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 2.6 Percent — December 16, 2016

gdpnow-2016-12-16

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.6 percent on December 16, up from 2.4 percent on December 14. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent after yesterday’s Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

GDPNow Contribution History

gdpnow-2016-12-16a

FRBNY Nowcast December 16, 2016 Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2016:Q4 and 1.7% for 2017:Q1.
  • This week’s news had a negative effect on the nowcast, pushing down the Q4 and Q1 measures by about 0.7 percentage point each.
  • The largest negative contributions came from capacity utilization and industrial production data as well as housing data, which were only partly offset by a positive contribution from survey data.

FRNBY 4th Quarter Nowcast


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