Archive for 2016

“Everything Is Plunging” – China Commodity Carnage Continues

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Hot on the heels of Trumpian-size tariffs imposed by The Obama administration on a desperately glutted and mal-invested steel industry, the entire panic-buying “well the market is always right”, “China is recovering” narrative based rally in Chinese commodities has crashed back down to earth with an incredible thud. As one veteran trader in the China commodity markets put it “everything is plunging… except cotton,” with Iron Ore, and Rebar down 7% today…

At least one industry executive “got it” – Baosteel’s Zhang: “The price rebound is not beneficial to the overcapacity situation…. It will delay the shutdown of (inefficient) capacity.”

How right he was…

Dalian Iron Ore has collapsed 30% in a month, down 7% today…

Steel Rebar has crashed 32% in a month, down 5% today… (it seems the brief BTFD support has completely collapsed)…

Hot Rolled Coil -28% in a month, down 6% today…

One word to describe mainland commodities: TIMBERRR???

— Simon Ting (@simonting) May 23, 2016

Makes one wonder what the world’s only marginal-buyer-of-crude could do ‘retaliate’ to a nation imposing tariffs like that which is also dependent on a bounce in oil prices to supports its ‘wealth-creating’ stock market?





S&P 500 Snapshot: Back in the Green Year-to-Date

Courtesy of Doug Short’s Advisor Perspectives.

Thursday’s -0.37% finish in the S&P 500 dropped the index fractionally into the red, down 0.19% year-to-date, but today’s 0.60% advance lifted it back into the green up 0.41% after 97 market days in 2016. The index also closed the week up 0.28%, snapping a three-week losing streak. The Dow, on the other hand, despite its 0.38% advance today, extended its weekly losing streak to four weeks. With six trading days remaining in the proverbial “sell in May”, the S&P 500 is down only 0.63% for the month.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.85%, unchanged from the previous close but up 14 basis points from last Friday.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

S&P 500

On the daily chart we see that today’s intraday high was just a tad below the 50-day moving average. Trading volume was unremarkable.

S&P 500

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

S&P 500 Drawdowns

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

S&P 500 MAs

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

S&P 500 MAs

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

S&P 500 Snapshot





Can Russia Survive Washington’s Attack?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

It is not only American generals who are irresponsible and declare on the basis of no evidence whatsoever that “Russia is an existential threat to the United States” and also to the Baltic states, Poland, Georgia, Ukraine, and all of Europe. British generals also participate in the warmongering.  UK retired general and former NATO commander Sir Richard Shirreff, Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe until 2014, has just declared that nuclear war with Russia is “entirely possible” within the year.  

My loyal readers know that I, myself, have been warning for some time about the likelihood of nuclear war.  However, there is a vast difference between me and the Western generals.  I see the war as the consequence of the neoconservative drive for US world hegemony.  The neoconservative drive for world hegemony is acknowledged by the neoconservatives themselves in their public position papers, and it has a 15 year record of being implemented in America’s many and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Africa.  Although the Presstitute media does its best to keep our focus away from the known facts, the facts remain known.

The position of the Western generals is that “Russian aggression” is driving an innocent America/NATO to nuclear war.  

Here is General Shirreff’s list of “Russian aggressions”: “He [Putin] has invaded Georgia, he has invaded the Crimea, he has invaded Ukraine. He has used force and got away with it.  In a period of tension, an attack on the Baltic states… is entirely plausible.” Shirreff is talking about make-believe happenings that even if real would be taking place inside what were until recently Russia’s long-standing national boundaries. 

General Shirreff strikes me as either uninformed or a dissembler. It is the United States and Israel who use force and get away with it. The Russian invasion of the former Russian province, Georgia, was a response to the American puppet government’s invasion of South Ossetia in which the American and israeli trained and equipped Georgian troops killed Russian peace-keeping troops and a large number of South Ossetian civilians while the Russian government was at the Beijing olympics. 

It only took a small fraction of the Russian Army a few hours to roll up the American and Israeli trained Georgian Army.  Putin…
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Erdogan Nears Absolute Power With Appointment Of Puppet Premier, Stripping MPs Of Immunity

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When the news hit on May 5 that Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu would unexpectedly stand down from his post as a result of sharply escalating fighting behind the scenes over president Tayyip Erdogan’s relentless attempt to rule Turkey with virtually no checks and balances, the market was not happy, and the volatility of the Turkish Lira soared the most in the past decade.

Since then the Turkish market has modestly tamed, even if the Erdogan’s push for supreme control has done anything but, and during today’s congress of Turkey’s AKP, Erdogan confirmed an impotent lapdog, Binali Yildirim – a close ally for two decades and a co-founder of the ruling AK Party – as his new prime minister on Sunday, which as Reuters explained was “a big step towards the stronger presidential powers [Erdogan] has long sought.” In plain English, Turkey is unofficially a dictatorship, in which Erdogan is president only in title and in reality a supreme despot as there is no longer anyone who can politically challenge the president.

Concurrently, Erdogan also accepted the resignation of outgoing Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Sunday, hours after AKP elected Yildirim as his replacement.

In a speech to AKP delegates who earlier elected him party leader at a special congress, Yildirim, transport minister for most of the past decade and a half, left no doubt that he would prioritise the policies closest to Erdogan’s heart. His main aim, he said, was to deliver a new constitution and create an executive presidency, a change Erdogan says will bring stability to the NATO member state of 78 million, but which opponents fear will herald greater authoritarianism.

Yildirim, 60, said constitutional change was a necessity to legitimize the existing situation, tacit acknowledgment that Erdogan has extended the traditionally ceremonial role of the Turkish presidency. “The most important mission we have today is to legalize the de facto situation, to bring to an end this confusion by changing the constitution,” he said. “The new constitution will be on an executive presidential system.”


Erdogan meets with incoming Prime Minister Binali Yildirim.

The constitutional change would give Erdogan unlimited power over virtually every aspect of governance.

As if proof were needed of where power in the party lies, delegates remained standing through…
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Rapper Threatens To Kill Donald Trump If His “Momma’s Food Stamps” Are Taken Away

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Threats by prominent members of the black community against Donald Trump, either directly or indirectly, are nothing new.

Just under two months ago we reported about the latest social fallout incident from Trump’s rising popularity, when prominent Black Lives Matter activist and rapper Tef Poe tweeted a message for “white people”: if Donald Trump wins the presidency, “niggas” will ‘incite riots everywhere.’

“Dear white people if Trump wins young niggas such as myself are fully hell bent on inciting riots everywhere we go. Just so you know,” Poe tweeted. A screenshot of his since deleted tweet was captured below by the Daily Media.

To be sure, the antagonism among African-Americans toward Trump is well-known by now, and even CLSA’s noted commentator Chris Wood touched upon this in the latest edition of hs “Greed and Fear” newsletter.

However, a new and perhaps even more bizarre protest, not to mention death threat, against Donald Trump was revealed this weekend when Louisiana rapper Maine Muzik said during a YouTube video recording that he would kill presumptive presidential candidate Donald Trump if his “Mamma’s food stamps are taken away.” To wit:

I could go to war with whoever the fuck I want to, but I really want to go to war with Donald Trump because Donald Trump trying to take food stamps from my mamma and that’s all the fuck she’s got. As long as the motherfucking government let us keep food stamps… we gonna be good, but the first time this nigga pass a law talking about he taking Louisiana purchase, shit going to get ugly.  I swear to god on every motherfucking chain I got, bitchez gonna go down.

You gotta understand them (inaudible) love Fruit Loops. They love that shit so if you take that shit nigga it’s coming with the madness and a nigga ain’t gonna play about that.  Y’all take Donald Trump and let him know it’s up over here. We gonna declare war.

In his tirade he even went on to declare his allegiance to the Islamic State.

And I ain’t worried about ISIS because they just called me, they want me to fuck with them now… Ya, we got them drums bitch and grenades but I’m scared to throw


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Governments Create Monopolies And Cause Worker-Exploitation, Not Free-Markets

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Richard M. Ebeling via The Future of Freedom Foundation,

The world is threatened with a renewed wave of anti-capitalism and anti-business sentiments and policies. Many who cheered the demise of Soviet communism in the early 1990s, presumed that this meant that, by default, the case for free markets and competitive enterprise had won in the battle of ideas. Over the last twenty-five years it has become clear that the same misguided arguments against free market capitalism constantly reemerge, like an ideological vampire waiting to rise from the intellectual grave and drain market freedom of its lifeblood by more government regulations and controls.

One of the most persistent of these misguided ideas is the belief that left on its own, competitive markets tend to bring about concentration of wealth, inequality of income, and “market power” to exploit workers and consumers of what justly should be theirs.

The most recent example of this is an article on, “Monopoly’s New Era,” by Joseph E. Stiglitz, the 2001 Nobel Prize winner in economics, which appeared on Project Syndicate website on May 13, 2016. Professor Stiglitz is one of those thinkers who seem to see a “market failure” at every turn and apparently has rarely found a government intervention he did not like.

Two Ways of Looking at the Market Process

He contrasts two differing views of the market economy. One view, an outgrowth of Adam Smith and those who followed in his intellectual footsteps over the last 250 years, argue that freedom, prosperity, and income equity are generally assured wherever the market is kept open and competitive, with minimal government impediments.

The other “school of thought” that he interestingly identifies with no one particular thinker of the past “takes as its starting point ‘power,’ including the ability to exercise monopoly control or, in labor markets, to assert authority over workers,” Stiglitz explains. “Scholars in this area have focused on what gives rise to power, how it is maintained and strengthened, and other features that may prevent markets from being competitive. Work on exploitation arising from asymmetries of information is an important example.”

Professor Stiglitz insists that this second approach has shown its insight and efficacy in the clear evidence of concentration of market control and income inequality in such sectors of the market such as finance…
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China Has Quietly Bailed Out Over $220 Billion In Bad Debt In The Past 2 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Two months ago we were amazed to read that according to the latest “deus ex machina” proposed by the PBOC, China would “sweep away” trillions in bad loans by equitizing them in the form of debt-for-equity exchanges. This is how we tried to explain this unprecedented move on March 10 when Reuters first hinted it was coming:

This proposal entails nothing short of a nationalization on a grand scale, one which gives China’s impaired commercial banks – all of which are implicitly state controlled – the “equity keys” to the companies to which they have given secured loans, loans which are no longer performing because the underlying assets are clearly impaired, and where the cash flow generated can’t even cover the interest payments.

In effect, the PBOC is proposing the biggest debt-for-equity swap ever seen. What it also means is that since the secured lender, which is at the top of the capital structure will drop all the way down, it wipes out the existing equity and unsecured debt, and make the banks the new equity owners, and as such China’s commercial banks will no longer be entitled to interest payments or security collateral on their now-equity investment. Finally, while this move does free up loss reserves, it essentially strips banks of their security and asset protection which they enjoyed as secured lenders.

So why is China doing this? By equitizing trillions in bad loans, it frees up the corporate balance sheets to layer on fresh trillions in bad debt, the same debt that pushed these zombie companies into insolvency to begin with.

What this grand equitization does not do, is make the underlying business any more profitable or viable: after all the loans are bad because the companies no longer can generate even the required cash interest payment – as a result of China’s unprecedented excess capacity and low commodity prices which prevent corporate viability. It has little to do with their current balance sheet.

That, however, is irrelevant to the PBOC which is hoping that by taking this step it can magically eliminate trilliions in NPL from commercial bank balance sheets in what is not only the biggest equitization in history, but also the biggest diversion since David Copperfield made the statue of liberty disappear, as instead


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Guess What Occupation Is Most Frequently Cited In The Panama Papers?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With all the anti-one-percenter rhetoric and tax-evading-evil-doer narratives spewing forth from the mainstream media mouthpieces of the establishment since The Panama Papers were exposed for all to see, it may come as a surprise to some to find out which cohort of the elites are the most populous among the tax-haven-creating documents…

The Politicians!!

Source: WikiData

Which makes us wonder if this leak was indeed a plot to blackmail/expose the West’s ruling class?

Nevertheless, one thing is very clear, as Luis Guillermo Valez explains via PanamPost, officials are hypocritically denouncing the strategies they practice themselves…

Why can’t tax evasion be a legitimate form of self defense? In some countries and circumstances, it is.

Despite what politicians want us to believe, tax havens exist because some countries have been turned into tax hellholes by officials bent on “social justice” and “income redistribution.” Sometimes, those same politicians top the list of “offshore” account holders trying to evade taxes.

“The Wealth of Nations” by Adam Smith had something to say about this kind of government revenue, namely that taxes are a lesser evil overall than other forms of paying for public services.

But to prevent taxes from harmful excess, Smith left to posterity the four principles of good taxation, which have been almost completely forgotten by politicians concerned with legislating taxation. Here is Smith’s wise warning:

Excessive taxation is a powerful stimulus to evasion, so penalties to offenders grow proportionally to the temptation that causes it. Contrary to the principles of justice, the law first raises the temptation to infringe it and then punishes the violators.

And if corruption and overspending is added to excessive taxation, the motives for tax evasion are complete. Once again Smith:

In all countries where there is a corrupt government, and where there is suspicion that it incurs in great expense and government revenue is improperly used, very often these laws that protect contributions are little respected

In the 1970s, I met a Canadian man called Bryan O’Connor. He used to deliver pizzas in Toronto and always carried a little notebook in which he religiously wrote down all the tips he received in his work, preventing the risk of missing a penny in his tax return.

I’ve never met anyone else like Bryan. I think he and Immanuel Kant are probably…
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The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started taking notice of Bitcoin. Here’s a hedge fund manager who has been known to investigate some of the more out of the box investment opportunities around and Bitcoin is on his radar.

He figured out pretty quickly how to buy, store, and trade the currency. It’s extremely simple and certainly much easier than opening a typical brokerage account. But I wondered if the broader market saw it the same way?

What about Joe Sixpack who’s seen the Bitcoin checkout option on Amazon and thinks it’s another version of PayPal? Or the desk jockey who’s heard about it from his wayward teenage son and thinks it’s the domain of terrorists and crack dealers? What would it take to provide legitimacy to Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency in the eyes of the masses?

To answer my curiosity I googled it and found an article where some know-all was saying that Bitcoin isn’t a “real” currency because it’s not issued by an authority. This may strike a chord but I think the last time someone was so wrong he was standing in front of a tank in Tiananmen Square.

What gives Bitcoin value is largely the very fact that its NOT issued by any such “authority”.

But being an ardent student of history and lover of psychology I understand that there’s a fair few (the majority actually) among us who find comfort in a man in a uniform with a fluttering flag behind him. If it can’t be ISSUED by an authority, then would some such authority ostensibly legitimising it perhaps do the trick? The local government of a…
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Can Someone Find Me A Borrow For This Crazy Investment, Please?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Capitalist Exploits.

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started taking notice of Bitcoin. Here’s a hedge fund manager who has been known to investigate some of the more out of the box investment opportunities around and Bitcoin is on his radar.

He figured out pretty quickly how to buy, store, and trade the currency. It’s extremely simple and certainly much easier than opening a typical brokerage account. But I wondered if the broader market saw it the same way?

What about Joe Sixpack who’s seen the Bitcoin checkout option on Amazon and thinks it’s another version of PayPal? Or the desk jockey who’s heard about it from his wayward teenage son and thinks it’s the domain of terrorists and crack dealers? What would it take to provide legitimacy to Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency in the eyes of the masses?

To answer my curiosity I googled it and found an article where some know-all was saying that Bitcoin isn’t a “real” currency because it’s not issued by an authority. This may strike a chord but I think the last time someone was so wrong he was standing in front of a tank in Tiananmen Square.

What gives Bitcoin value is largely the very fact that its NOT issued by any such “authority”.

But being an ardent student of history and lover of psychology I understand that there’s a fair few (the majority actually) among us who find comfort in a man in a uniform with a fluttering flag behind him. If it can’t be ISSUED by an authority, then would…
continue reading





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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