Archive for 2016

News You Can Use From Phil’s Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. Stock Futures Retreat After S&P 500 Erased 2016 Gain Friday (Bloomberg)

The selling continued in American stocks after investors suffered the worst day since August on Friday following the U.K. referendum.

Global Economy Week Ahead: Summits in Europe, Manufacturing Data (Wall Street Journal)

The British vote to leave the European Union is likely to dominate summits of European heads of government and global central bankers this week. Here is a look at the big events.

In the Face of Turmoil, BIS Warns of Overreacting to Brexit (Bloomberg)

Monetary policy is so stretched worldwide that a radical re-think about how support is provided to the economy is needed, even at a time when the U.K.’s exit from the European Union risks placing fresh demands on central banks.

The weekend is over and stocks are falling (Business Insider)

The weekend is over, and stocks are falling all over again.

Yen Brexit Surge Seen Testing 95 in Threat to BOJ Stimulus Goals (Bloomberg)

When Mohamed El-Erian called the yen at 106 per dollar “a total nightmare” for Japan this month, few envisaged it would get even worse so quickly.

Oil extends decline as Brexit concerns linger (Business Insider)

Oil prices dropped around half a percent on Monday, extending sharp declines after Britain's vote to leave the European Union sparked a sharp selloff in global markets on Friday amid concerns over risk aversion.

If you want to know how much to worry about Brexit, watch this currency (Quartz)

Mexico’s currency has the unenviable role of serving as the bellwether for volatility in the world’s emerging markets. And Brexit is sending it for a tumble.

Kerry Urges Britain and EU to Cooperate to Calm Markets (Bloomberg)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged Britain and the European Union to work together to


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How The Pentagon Is Preparing For A Tank War With Russia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Patriuck Tucker via DefenseOne.com,

Reactive armor and cross-domain fire capabilities are just some of the items on the Army’s must-have list.

When Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster briefs, it’s like Gen. Patton giving a TED talk — a domineering physical presence with bristling intellectual intensity.

These days, the charismatic director of the Army’s Capabilities Integration Center is knee-deep in a project called The Russia New Generation Warfare study, an analysis of how Russia is re-inventing land warfare in the mud of Eastern Ukraine. Speaking recently at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., McMaster said that the two-year-old conflict had revealed that the Russians have superior artillery firepower, better combat vehicles, and have learned sophisticated use of UAVs for tactical effect. Should U.S. forces find themselves in a  land war with Russia, he said, they would be in for a rude, cold awakening.

“We spend a long time talking about winning long-range missile duels,” said McMaster. But long-range missiles only get you through the front door. The question then becomes what will you do when you get there.

“Look at the enemy countermeasures,” he said, noting Russia’s use of nominally semi-professional forces who are capable of “dispersion, concealment, intermingling with civilian populations…the ability to disrupt our network strike capability, precision navigation and timing capabilities.” All of that means “you’re probably going to have a close fight… Increasingly, close combat overmatch is an area we’ve neglected, because we’ve taken it for granted.”

So how do you restore overmatch? The recipe that’s emerging from the battlefield of Ukraine, says McMaster, is more artillery and better artillery, a mix of old and new.

Cross-Domain Fires

“We’re out-ranged by a lot of these systems and they employ improved conventional munitions, which we are going away from. There will be a 40- to 60-percent reduction in lethality in the systems that we have,” he said. “Remember that we already have fewer artillery systems. Now those fewer artillery systems will be less effective relative to the enemy. So we need to do something on that now.”

To remedy that, McMaster is looking into a new area called “cross domain fires,” which would outfit ground units to hit a much wider array of targets. “When an Army fires unit arrives somewhere, it should be able to do surface-to-air, surface-to-surface, and shore-to-ship capabilities. We are developing that


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‘Cost-Burdened-Renters’ Surge To Historic Highs As Hillbama-nomics Fails For Low-Income Faithful

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As we have discussed many times in the past, for the Average American, owning a home is increasingly unaffordable. This has led to a dramatic surge in rents, and ultimately to a significant squeeze on the cash flow of renters across the nation.

Recall, here is RealtyTrac’s Q1 2016 Home Affordability Index, which showed that 9% of the US county housing markets were less affordable than their historical levels.

The unaffordability of owning a home of course has led to a plummeting national home ownership rate, as shown by Harvard’s recent State of the Nation’s Housing report.

Not surprisingly, as millennials are making less and drowning in debt, home ownership rates for younger age groups has completely fallen off a cliff. As a reminder, more millennials live at home with their parents now than at any other time since the great depression. However, as the chart below shows, home ownership has fallen across the board.

The result of all of the above, is that rental prices for everyone have surged, and is putting more and more renters in a position of being significantly cost burdened as more income needs to be directed toward paying the rent. The number of cost-burdened households rose by 3.6 million from 2008 to 2014 to a stunning 21.3 million households. Even more concerning is that the number of households with severe burdens (ie: paying more than 50% of income for housing) jumped by 2.1 million to a record 11.4 million households. As the report states, cost-burdened renters are at historic highs.

From the report

The divergence between the rental and owner-occupied markets is evident in the number of cost-burdened households in each segment. On the owner side, the number of households facing cost burdens (paying more than 30 percent of income for housing) has fallen steadily as high foreclosure rates have pushed out many financially strained owners, low interest rates have allowed remaining owners to reduce their housing costs, and fewer young households have moved into homeownership. As of 2014, the number of cost-burdened owners stood at 18.5 million, down 4.4 million since 2008.

The decline has occurred across all age groups, but especially among younger homeowners. Homeowners age 75 and


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TRUMPism and political multi-culturalism post Brexit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Brexit, like a Trump Presidency, is yet another broken cog shaking the Elite’s machine towards global domination.  For better or worse, some are calling it a rise of ‘populism.’  But at the end of the day, social unrest can be easily predicted and scientifically quantified.  The Elite are doing a poor job running the world.  From the French Revolution to the Onion revolution in India – studies have been done that correlate the simple common sense knowledge: when people are hungry, they fight.  Very rarely, such as in the case of the Bolshevik revolution in Russia, any drastic social reform is based on intellectual concepts.  Usually people are just hungry, fed up, angry, and displeased with their owners.  Over a period of 500 years, Feudalism simply changed forms, demographics changed, technology changed the way the people are goverened.  The world’s richest lost $127 Billion on Brexit loss.  So what?  They made Trillions during the last decade.  Practically, very little has changed socially over this 500 year period – still there is a 1% of rulers that own and control the 99%.  The one percent movement should read history.  Again, with few exceptions such as Soviet Russia and a few others, the world has always been like this.  But during that time the Elite have learned a lot about people – and specifically what works and what doesn’t.  People need entertainment, so they’ve made politics a circus.  People don’t want to read books about a political ideology, or study philsophy, they want to watch TV.  Modern ‘politics’ is just another form of entertainment for the masses to keep them fat and happy.  In their lazy-boys loaded with Prozac, Alcohol, and high fructose corn syrup – they like to watch in Ultra High Definition – other people talk about their opinions.  It’s a form of voyeurism (like sports), they don’t actually want to participate in anything, that’s the idea – just press play.  But animal planet- it just doesn’t cut it.  People like drama, gossip, war, and natural disasters.  Hurricanes, Earthquakes, have great ratings.  

Tyler Durden keeps talking about how the net winner of the Brexit situation is Russia.  Well, recently, a local governor in Russia of Kirov region, has been caught ‘red-handed’ receiving a 400,000 Euro bribe.  This begs the question – how


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They Are Putting Armed Guards On Food Trucks In Venezuela

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submittted by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

Security Guard - Public Domain

We are watching what happens when the economy of a developed nation totally implodes.  Just a few years ago, Venezuela was the wealthiest nation in all of South America, and they still have more proven oil reserves than anyone else on the entire planet including Saudi Arabia.  But now people down there are so hungry and so desperate that some of them are actually hunting dogs, cats and pigeons for food.  Just a few days ago, I gave a talk down at Morningside during which I warned that someday we would see armed guards on food trucks in America.  After that talk was done, I went back up to my room and I came across a New York Times article which had been republished by MSN that explained that this exact thing is already happening down in Venezuela…

With delivery trucks under constant attack, the nation’s food is now transported under armed guard. Soldiers stand watch over bakeries. The police fire rubber bullets at desperate mobs storming grocery stores, pharmacies and butcher shops. A 4-year-old girl was shot to death as street gangs fought over food.

Venezuela is convulsing from hunger.

Hundreds of people here in the city of Cumaná, home to one of the region’s independence heroes, marched on a supermarket in recent days, screaming for food. They forced open a large metal gate and poured inside. They snatched water, flour, cornmeal, salt, sugar, potatoes, anything they could find, leaving behind only broken freezers and overturned shelves.

All over the country, people are standing in extremely long lines day after day hoping to get some food.  Sometimes the food trucks don’t bring anything, and sometimes it is just scraps like fish heads and rotten fruit.  To get a better idea of what life is like in Venezuela right now, just check out this YouTube video

As people down in Venezuela get hungrier and hungrier, extreme desperation is setting in.  And with extreme desperation comes crime and violence


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Why Did the UK Enter the EU in the First Place?

Courtesy of Mish.

Looking back, one really has to wonder why the UK subjected itself to all the inane EU nannycrat rules and regulations in the first place.

I can explain. Many readers sent me this explanation, but I also used it before on my blog long ago.

Please consider this clip from the British TV show “Yes Minister”.

The clip it is amazingly funny. Play it.

Union Jack

Email Comments

From Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog.

I recently wrote this to my totally Europhile European email group, which has hedge fund managers, economists, journalists, insurance and pension fund asset managers, and even a few politicians from across Europe (every country from the UK to Latvia has a few people in the group, and a few fund managers from the US, Australia and Israel are also members).

A few days before the Brexit, they had all written paeans on the EU, and expressed both their expectation and hope that the UK would remain, while chiding the “leave” campaign for its intellectual inferiority. I was incredibly busy (still am) and didn’t find the time to properly join the debate. But one day before the referendum I felt I simply had to say SOMETHING to disrupt this love-fest.

So I wrote this (I was very polite, but it was met with speechlessness for a little moment. I did get several very friendly and well thought out replies after a while though. You must understand, these people are my friends, and I like them and they like me, generally. They know of course that my opinions on these things are very different from those of most of the European elite):

Leaving aside the “we’re doing it for peace” argument, which wily EU politicians tacked on out of the blue 40 or 50 years after the EEC was founded in order to cartelize the then state-owned coal and steel industries, what exactly are the advantages of being in the EU? If we want to have free trade, do we really need a bureaucratic Leviathan in Brussels regulating every nook and cranny of our lives? NO. We need the back of a napkin, on which we could write: “Henceforth, there will be no more tariffs between us”.

Today the EU primarily serves a tone-deaf bureaucratic and political class, which


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China Devalues Yuan Most In 10 Months As Premier Li Warns Of Brexit “Butterfly Effect” On Financial Markets, Economy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In a somewhat shockingly honest admission of the frgaility of the global financial system, Chinese Premier Li warns that a disillusioned British butterfly has flapped its wings and the entire global financial system could collapse. Responding to the plunge in offshore Yuan since the Brexit vote (down 7 handles to 5-month lows over 6.65), PBOC devalued Yuan fix by 0.9% (6 handles) – the most since the August crash – to Dec 2010 lows. Finally, we note USD liquidity pressures building as EUR-USD basis swaps plunge.

Offshore Yuan is 3 handles cheap to onshore Yuan and 9 handles cheap to Friday’s fix…

And so PBOC was somewhat forced to devalue yuugely…

  • *CHINA WEAKENS YUAN FIXING BY 0.9%, MOST SINCE AUGUST
  • *PBOC TO INJECT 270B YUAN WITH 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS: TRADER

While Chinese stocks remain ‘stable’ (despite Goldman suggesting more pain is due – regional cost of equity to rise 50-75bps as risk appetite shrinks after Brexit, equal to 5%-10% index decline), the less managed rest of the world is struggling and China knows it…

Premier Li Keqiang said an increase in instability in a particular country or region could trigger the “Butterfly Effect,” which could, in turn, affect the global economic recovery and financial market stability, according to comments posted on Chinese central govt’s website.

All economies highly dependent on each other and no country can manage alone, Li said during meeting with WEF executive chairman Klaus Schwab in Tianjin.

Li called on all nations to enhance coordination and work together to address difficulties.

The shift in the Yuan Fix (red) seemed clear from the collapse in offshore Yuan… CNH > 6.65 (7 handles weaker than pre-Brexit)

Here’s why Americans might want to care about this Brexit butterfly and China crash…

Finally, we note that USD liquidty needs are getting very serious as EUR-USD basis swaps surge lower indicating major USD demand…





Is The US Locking Up Its Available Male Labor Force?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A few years ago we noted an extremely disturbing trend, namely that there was never a lower percentage of white men over 20 working in America. The decline in labor force participation rate for males ages 25-54 has accelerated sharply since 1980, and we may have an answer as to why.

Here is the labor force participation rate for men ages 25-54. Although the downward trend is clear since it topped out out 97.9% in 1954, a notable accelerated decline takes place since 1980, which as of May 1, 2016 put the rate at 88.4%.

As the WSJ points out, there is a sharp divergence in participation rates by educational attainment.

Which one could argue is evidence of the declining middle class in America, as blue-collar jobs are disappearing.

There is one more critical chart that the WSJ provides that is notable however, and is something to consider. As the decline in labor force participation for working age males has accelerated its decline since 1980, male prisoners who have been incarcerated has accelerated in the complete opposite direction.

* * *

Is the male labor force collapsing because more and more are being sent to prison? The data certainly shows that is a possibility.

Here is a look at how the US imprisonment rate has grown since 1880 – look at the pop since 1980.

And just because it has been an insane weekend, we’ll add to it by reminding readers that despite all of the above, Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) is actively advocating that the US has an “under-incarceration problem.Perhaps Cotton wishes to lock up the entire male labor force instead of just most of it.





Congressman: Only Politicians Need Firearms For Protection

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Joshua Krause via TheDailySheeple.com (h/t SHTFPlan.com),

charlie rangel wikimedia

There are millions of Americans who want to restrict firearm ownership and use by one degree or another. While you may disagree with those people, at least they’re consistent. For the most part, die-hard gun grabbers don’t own firearms, and have probably never even held a gun before. They’re not hypocrites, unlike the handful of politicians and celebrities who often lead them.

It’s been pointed out by Second Amendment supporters for years, that the wealthy and famous liberals who say they hate gun so much, are typically flanked by professionally trained and armed security guards at all times. They tell us that we don’t need firearms to protect ourselves, while they go about their lives constantly surrounded by firearms.

Unfortunately, this hypocrisy is rarely challenged in person. These people are singled out by pro-gun activists over and over again, but nobody with a microphone or a video camera has had the opportunity to question these elites over their blatant hypocrisy. We’ve never seen the right reporter with the right questions, get close enough to one of these high profile anti-gun crusaders. Clearly, having a squad of armed guards has plenty of perks for people who don’t like to explain themselves.

Fortunately, it has finally happened. An anti-gun politician has finally been put on the spot over this matter. Democratic Representative Charlie Rangel spoke to the Daily Caller on Tuesday, in regards to a recent scandal involving four NYPD officials who were arrested for accepting bribes in exchange for police escorts and gun licenses, among other perks.

When asked by The Daily Caller his thoughts on the difficulty of getting a concealed carry permit in New York City and how rare it is for such permits to be issued by the NYPD, Rangel replied, “I’m glad to hear you say that very few people get it.”

“We don’t need that many guns,” he continued. “I didn’t know that briberies were involved in getting a gun, and that is wrong, but overall, if it is difficult to get a concealed weapon permit, I’m glad to hear that.”

Rangel went on to say that his own law-abiding constituents in Harlem shouldn’t have to carry guns for their own protection. However, the same rules


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Top Ten Videos – June 27

Courtesy of John Rubino.

David Morgan on silver, Nick Barisheff, Marin Katusa and Doug Casey on gold. Max Keiser on economic anxiety. And another chance to watch Brexit, The Movie, in light of that side’s victory.

Visit John’s Dollar Collapse blog here





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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