Archive for 2016

The Wedge That’s Driving Facebook’s Stock

Courtesy of Dana Lyons

The stock of Facebook has been in a rising wedge pattern for most of its lifetime – and the pattern is nearing a resolution.

Today’s Chart Of The Day takes a rare detour into single stock territory. As we do not trade individual equities for our clients, it is typically not a focus of ours. But with Facebook (FB) in the news today (along with a dearth of exciting charts) we take a look at a chart pattern relevant to FB throughout most of its history – and in particular, right now.

A “rising wedge” pattern involves a series of higher highs and higher lows on a price chart – with the lows demonstrating a steeper ascent. Given the sharper rise in the lows, the trendline connecting the highs and the trendline connecting the lows will necessarily intersect at some point, which we call the “apex”. That is where one can expect resolution to the pattern, if the wedge has not already been broken. Despite the higher highs and lows, the pattern is generally considered to be a bearish one. That is, prices more often than not resolve, or break out of, the wedge to the downside. 

In the case of Facebook, one can consider nearly its entire history as one big rising wedge. After its IPO in 2012, FB began its launch higher in earnest in June 2013. Since that point, it has demonstrated a long-term series of higher highs and higher lows. However, the lows have been rising faster than the highs, resulting in the rising wedge seen on its chart here.

image

If this interpretation is correct, the apex is fast approaching. The upper and lower bounds of the wedge will intersect before the end of the year, with the exact time dependent upon where one draws the lines. We drew them on a weekly chart and the intersection should come by the end of November. That means we should have resolution of this wedge by that time. Absent a breakout before then, the range in FB trade should continue to squeeze tighter and tighter.

Should FB break the wedge to the downside, significant support (at this time) may lie just north of 100, then just south of 90. Those


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“You’re An Idiot & A Lunatic if You Question ‘Safe Spaces’ Or ‘Microaggression’” – President Of Northwestern

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Mark Glennon via WirePoints.com,

Never mind that he’s talking about many who his university educated, including me. Any of you who question campus preoccupation with safe spaces, trigger warnings and microaggressions are idiots and lunatics. That’s what Northwestern University President Morton Schapiro told new students this past week in his welcoming address. Articles about his comments include those in CampusReform and The Daily Northwestern.

“Look for safe spaces,” Schapiro told the freshman, and he pledged that “if you can’t find them, we will help you find them.” Regarding traumatic ideas, Schapiro says, “If they say that…you shouldn’t be warned to prepare yourself psychologically for that, that somehow that’s coddling, those people are lunatics.”

Northwestern University President Morton Schapiro

The hypocrisy is breathtaking. Words like “idiot” and “lunatic” are just the kind from which the safe space crowd thinks it should be protected.

Contempt for stereotyping is also high among their pieties. Yet Schapiro told his students, “The people who decry safe spaces do it from their segregated housing places, from their jobs without diversity — they do it from their country clubs. It just drives me nuts.”

But it’s the microaggression thing that’s most interesting. Those who deny their existence are “idiots,” Schapiro says.” They “cut you to the core” and aren’t easily forgotten.

Seems to me that’s why they’re great. I like them. They piss you off. They force you to decide who you are and what you stand for.

Daislyland. Safe from the horrors of “microagression.”

Like that girl from Manhattan in the dorm at Northwestern who told me she could never see any reason to go to the south suburbs (where I am from). Or the union thug when I worked at Jewel who threatened me with retaliation for questioning the political contributions I was forced to make. Or the people in the Cook County Recorder of Deeds office who would shake you down to get a lien search done when I was a young lawyer. Or some of the comments and emails I get here.

I bet everybody who reads this – anybody with motivation, that is, in whatever direction – has their own stories. That’s what gets you out of bed in the morning.

It’s far worse for gays, blacks and certain others. I


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“I Think It’ll Be A Clown Show” – Why Tomorrow’s Debate Is So Important

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Craig Bell, a 55-year-old software engineer from Columbus, Ohio, will be one of the 100 million estimated Americans set to tune in on Monday night at 9pm for the first debate between the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees.  As profiled by Bloomberg, what he sees will be as important as what he hears. “I don’t know how to say this nicely, but I just want to see which one can act more presidential and more trustworthy,’’ Bell said at a table outside North Market in downtown Columbus.

Bell, and millions of “undecideds” like him, is why tomorrow’s debate has such huge significance:  according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 34% of registered voters think the three presidential debates would be extremely or quite important in helping them decide whom to support for president. About 11% of voters are considered “debate persuadables”—that is, they think the debates are important and are either third-party voters or only loosely committed to either major-party candidate.

Slightly more Republicans than Democrats said the debates would be important to them, 37% to 31%. But voter groups that seem poised to pay the most attention include several that Hillary Clinton is counting on to win. Some 49% of Hispanics, 42% of African-Americans and 39% of voters under age 35 say that the debates will be extremely or quite important to them.

The breakdown of the millions of Americans yet to decide who they will vote for is shown below (apologies to Gary Johnson fans: he will not make it tomorrow): 


According to Bloomberg, interviews conducted in key precincts of Ohio and Pennsylvania as well as other battleground states found voters who said they’ve ruled out either Clinton or Trump but aren’t yet comfortable with the alternative. Some are considering a third party contender, such as Libertarian Gary Johnson or not voting at all for president. While they care about the issues, most say they’ve heard where the candidates stand and aren’t expecting any new ground to be broken when they meet Monday night at Hofstra University in New York for the first of three scheduled debates.

Still, they may be persuaded, and that’s what the campaigns are betting on. Indeed, as the WSJ adds, the campaigns of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton acknowledged the huge


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Anyone Believe This? : Three-Quarters of UK’s CEOs Consider Moving Due to Brexit

Courtesy of Mish.

Color me totally totally skeptical on this Bloomberg report: Brexit Leads Three-Quarters of Britain’s CEOs to Consider Moving.

The U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union has left more than three-quarters of chief executive officers saying they would consider moving their headquarters or operations outside Britain, according to a survey of 100 business leaders by the accountancy firm KPMG.

Some 72 percent of the CEOs surveyed said they voted “Remain” in the June 23 Brexit referendum , KPMG said on Monday in an e-mailed statement. While 69 percent said they’re confident Britain’s economy will continue to grow over the next year, and 73 percent expressed confidence their companies will grow, 76 percent are mulling some form of relocation.

“CEOs are reacting to the prevailing uncertainty with contingency planning,” KPMG U.K. Chairman Simon Collins said in a statement. “Over half believe the U.K.’s ability to do business will be disrupted once we Brexit and therefore, for many CEOs, it is important that they plan different scenarios to hedge against future disruption.”

The survey suggests Prime Minister Theresa May has work to do to retain businesses and jobs as the U.K. seeks a deal with the EU that curbs immigration while retaining the closest trading ties possible with the bloc’s 27 other members. Before the referendum, the then-Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said a vote to leave would endanger as many as 820,000 jobs.

Blatant Fearmongering Again

Talk of leaving is nothing more than blatant fearmongering.

The instant recession idea died immediately, so now CEOs are hoping to influence UK prime minister Theresa May into scrapping the vote.

However, it it pretty obvious Theresa May has every intention of letting Brexit happen. Thus, this renewed fearmongering is totally counterproductive.

The CEOs would be better served by getting behind the movement to get the best deal they can. Talk of leaving plays into the EU’s hands.

Regardless, where the hell are the businesses going? France? Somewhere else in the EU with inane corporate taxes and countless nannycrat rules? Please be serious.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

(Originally published here)





Bush vs Obama As Explained By Glenn Greenwald In One Tweet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Glenn Greenwald perfectly sums up the farce that is the supposed “two-party” system that rules America in one tweet…

pic.twitter.com/kw7plllbri

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) September 25, 2016

Welcome to the oligarchy.

Evildoers (New Republic.com)

Besties (CNN.com)





Dr. Lisa Bardack’s Faustian Bargain

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Jay Michaels via AmericanThinker.com,

“Oh what tangled webs we weave, when we first practice to deceive.”  Sir Walter Scott

When Dr. Lisa Bardack was asked to become Hillary Clinton’s personal physician in 2001, it had to have been a crowning moment in the career of the Mt. Kisco internist.  Dr. Bardack could have anticipated little downside.  She already had the responsibility — and legal obligation under HIPAA — to protect the privacy of her patient.  She and her staff would have to be especially scrupulous in the case of a senator with presidential ambitions, but this should not have posed a serious problem.

Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton corrupts everyone who serves her.  And this year Bardack encountered difficulties she could not have foreseen in 2001:

1.  Clinton developed serious medical issues.

2.  The candidate was being videoed, not only during campaign stops, speeches, townhalls, and the rare press conference, but before and after events — by individuals with cell phones who were under no obligation to obey orders given to servile journalists to turn off their cameras.

3.  The internet not only permitted the mass distribution of these videos and photos, but it enabled those who were curious to check Bardack’s reports against information available on reputable medical sites.  It also enabled skeptical physicians to share their doubts with hundreds of thousands of readers.

In July 2015, the Clinton campaign asked Bardack to give the candidate a clean bill of health.  She was to disclose, selectively, some of her patient’s medical history.  But the letter was not widely analyzed until after the disturbing September 11 video by Zdenek Gazda, the Zapruder of 2016.  It was no longer possible to dismiss those asking questions about Hillary’s health as right-wing conspiracy theorists, and the campaign now requested a second letter from Dr. Bardack explaining the event.  The physician duly issued a report on September 14.  Now her real problems began.

Let’s take a look at the two letters and some of questions doctors have asked about the diagnoses and treatment.

I.  The letter of 12 July 2015

Bardack’s summary revealed a couple of major health problems that had not been previously disclosed.  We had been told that Clinton


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Edward Snowden Warns, Whatever You Do, Don’t Use Google Allo

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Google Allo, the new “smart” chat app launched on Wednesday, is ‘dangerous’ and should be avoided, according to whistleblower Edward Snowden, because it will “record every message you ever send and make it available to police upon request.”

What is #Allo? A Google app that records every message you ever send and makes it available to police upon request. https://t.co/EdPRC0G7Py

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) September 21, 2016

As RT reports, Allo, designed to unseat chat pack leader WhatsApp, promises to deliver quick conversations with features like; “Smart Reply” that can guess your answers and respond to messages with just the tap of a button, and “Google Assistant”, which answers your questions and helps you search for things directly in your chat.

How does Allo plan on predicting your every word and witty emoji, you ask? “The more you use it, the more it improves over time,” which basically means they’ll collect and store as much of your data as possible and then use artificial intelligence to guess your replies.

Thinking about #Allo? Last year, our secret court approved 100% of requests for surveillance. They would cover Allo. https://t.co/oYtc3Pu8tx

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) September 21, 2016

However, the efficiency of time-saving typing may end up costing customers their already compromised privacy.

When Google first announced the introduction of Allo earlier this year they, too, had planned end-to-end-encryption in “Incognito Mode” and assured they would only store messages transiently, rather than indefinitely.

However,  it now appears that Google won’t be doing that after all. Wednesday’s announcement revealed Google plans to store all conversations that aren’t specifically started in “incognito mode” by default.

Free for download today: Google Mail, Google Maps, and Google Surveillance. That’s #Allo. Don’t use Allo. https://t.co/EdPRC0G7Py

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) September 21, 2016

As Snowden pointed out, last year every single one of the NSA and FBI’s 1,457 surveillance requests was granted by the US foreign intelligence surveillance court… and Allo’s stored data (i.e. your data) will be fair game too.

In contrast, all of WhatsApp’s chats are encrypted and unreadable – although they did announce last month that they will now be sharing your contacts and who you talk to with Facebook.





Trump vs Hillary: The Debate Of The Century… Gets Even Wilder

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

There is nothing we can say to underscore the importance of tomorrow’s debate that can come close to Goldman’s characterization of what is about to be unleashed in just over 24 hours. As Goldman’s David Kostin puts it, the “upcoming debate ranks as the biggest match-up since the Mayweather/Pacquiao bout”…

… adding that “the first US Presidential debate will take place on Monday, September 26 and viewership may approach Super Bowl proportions with an audience of perhaps 100 million.

* * *

And it may get even wilder.

As we reported over the weekend, as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump got ready to face off in the first – and perhaps most anticipated in US history – presidential debate, their campaigns were mired in a controversy over guests.  The candidates have been accused of using their debate invitations to get under their opponent’s skin — and appear to be trying to outdo each other with their potential guests.

It started when billionaire Mark Cuban, formerly a supporter who then flipped and became an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, last week announced he had accepted an invitation from Clinton’s campaign to sit front-row at the debate on Monday night. In response, Trump threatened to bring Gennifer Flowers, a woman with whom former President Bill Clinton had an extramarital affair. The GOP nominee tweeted Saturday if “dopey Mark Cuban of failed Benefactor fame wants to sit in the front row, perhaps I will put Gennifer Flowers right alongside him.”

As reported previously, Flowers was eager to accept the invitation: “Hi Donald. You know I’m in your corner and will definitely be at the debate,” she tweeted in response. Bill Clinton testified under oath in 1998, saying he had a sexual affair with Flowers.

However, speculation that Hillary would be eyeballing his husband’s former mistress in the front row quickly died earlier today when members of Trump’s campaign on Sunday denied that Flowers was officially invited and said she will not attend. Trump’s VP candidate Mike Pence confirmed Flowers wouldn’t be at the debate, and said his running mate’s tweet was meant to mock Clinton for “trying to distract attention away from this moment in our national life where the American people are going to see a strong contrast” between both major party’s nominees.


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Weekly Market Recap Sep 25, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

It was all about the Federal Reserve as we noted it would be.  In last week’s recap we said:

From this perch there has been and continues to be zero expectation for a September rate hike as the Fed doesn’t want to be seen as “political” and trying to move the market ahead of November, but the Fed is at least trying to throw some bones out there to make the market a bit less complacent.

…and:

All eyes on the Federal Reserve with a meeting Tue/Wed and a press conference by Yellen Wednesday.   Since we expect nothing to happen Wednesday in terms of raising rates maybe the market will be in “relief” mode.  Unless there is strong language from Yellen hinting at a December rate hike.

So the market got what it wanted and we predicted.  And we saw a big rally Wednesday as is the norm when the Fed gives the market what it wants.  Which is almost always the past 2 decades.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, in a 7-to-3 vote, opted to keep rates steady in what Chairwoman Janet Yellen described as a “new normal” as central banks elsewhere around the globe embark upon quantitative-easing measures.

Everyone sat on their hands Monday and Tuesday waiting for the “all clear” signal from the Fed.  Once that was achieved a sturdy rally happened Wednesday and Thursday.   Friday gave back about half of that.

On the economic front, news releases were non events.

Here is a 5 day “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 via Doug Short.

spx-five-day

Here are the most shorted stocks in the Russell 3000 as expressed by short interest as percent of “float” (i.e. shares that trade publicly).

shorted

If you are a college student check out the thinkorswim Challenge!  Here is a review by our sister site Stockbrokers.com.  Since it’s only one month our suggestion is to go big or go home!

Students from Universities across the US form teams, register, than compete in a four-week trading competition, running October 10th to November 5th. Each


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Smoking Hot Wives, Gold, And The Dollar (+ Other Good Stuff)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

It’s been a while since I did a Q&A, and though I have a number of things I could discuss they will wait for another day for two very important reasons.

Firstly, by doing a Q&A I can reply to questions which typically takes me a bit shorter than it does to write longer articles. This is important because it’s a Friday night and my wife is looking smoking hot…

The second point. Oh, I forget what that was. Onto it then…

“Hi,


I just downloaded your US$ Bull Market Report from Dec. 2014.  It seems most of your predictions did not work out and the US$ has been in broadly a sideways to slightly up market since then.  The Yen is back to 100.


Your entire thesis on the US$ Bull Market appears to be based on the notion that US interest rates will rise whilst interest rates everywhere else will stay low or fall or even go negative.



 What is your stance on the USD/JPY? It seems the JPY is the new save haven currency which strengthens whenever there is a crisis. Do you still stand by your prediction that the JPY will weaken substantially against the USD?


Where do you buy the currency options (especially USD/JPY) you refer to in your write-up? Could you kindly let me know which exchange they are traded on? (I have market access to all major exchanges).


 Kind Regards


R.S”

Let me break the questions down one by one.

Dollar Index

Not sure what charts you’re looking at but to get on the same page here is what we said on November 13, 2014:

“A bull market in the US Dollar is underway and its magnitude and duration are likely to catch everyone by surprise. I believe it isn’t out of the question for the USD Index to advance by at least 50% within the next 5 years. If this forecast proves correct, there will be profound ramifications for the global economy and many financial markets, particularly emerging markets.”

The Dollar Report was published a few weeks later so the thesis is the same. At the time it


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Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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