Archive for 2016

Should Kohl's Guidance Worry Long-Term Investors, Or Is It Much Ado About Nothing?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related KSS
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Mid-Afternoon Market Update: Kohl's Drops On Lowered Forecast; Glu Mobile Shares Spike Higher
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Investors in Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) saw some very mild relief over Monday’s trading session. After plunging nearly 18 percent on Thursday of last week amid lowered fiscal year 2016 guidance, the stock rebounded more than a percent Monday.

UBS analyst Michael Binetti issued a research note early Monday morning, certainly not helping bulls in the stock.

The analyst, in the title of the note, questioned, “Was KSS 4Q Guide Down Weather or a Signal About Longer-Term Trends?”

Binetti reduced his fourth-quarter EPS estimate from $1.95 to $1.58 and his FY15 estimate from $4.37 to $4 even. The analyst consensus estimate shows analysts have modeled for quarterly earnings of about $1.57 per share and FY15 EPS around $4.03.

Reflecting the lowered earnings estimates, Binetti trimmed his price target on shares of Kohl’s from $49 to $45.

“We believe KSS ended 4Q with high inventories, which will likely further pressure 1Q16—which, in combination with a slow exit rate from January, will likely lead to a more conservative and back-weighted FY16 EPS guide,” according to Binetti.

Latest Ratings for KSS

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2016 Atlantic Equities Downgrades Neutral Underweight
Feb 2016 Nomura Maintains Buy
Feb 2016 MKM Partners Downgrades Buy Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for KSS
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: ado kohl's much adoAnalyst Color Long Ideas Price Target Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas

Bob Peck Still Buying LendingTree, Sees $90 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Bob Peck Still Buying LendingTree, Sees $90 Per Share

Related TREE
SunTrust: LendingTree's 2016 Guidance Is Conservative
LendingTree Starts To Recover As Investors Cheer CEO's Bullish Comments

On Monday, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey issued a report on Lendingtree Inc (NASDAQ: TREE) amid concerns over the future growth of the company. Currently, analysts at SunTrust rate LendingTree as a Buy, while lowering their price target from $120 to $90.

Robert Peck and Matthew Thornton, analysts at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, wrote, “LendingTree shares have declined more than 30 percent in the year-to-date on a variety of investor concerns ranging from macro to company-specific issues [...]While we reduce PT to $90 from $120 to reflect a re-rated market, we think the risk-reward is favorable. Reiterate Buy.”

Related Link: Analysts Say LendingTree’s 25% Selloff Is Unjustified

Key Catalysts Moving Forward

Analysts at SunTrust highlighted two key catalysts that could drive the company going forward:

1. Top-Line Growth
SunTrust believes Wall Street’s estimate of 25 percent year-over-year top-line growth for 2016 is conservative given LendingTree’s 2015 revenue growth of around 50 percent. If LendingTree can grow its loans at a higher rate than estimates, the company’s stock value could increase substantially.

2. Advertising Investments
The analysts noted that LendingTree spent over $1 million on TV commercials in 2015. This investment has the potential to drive revenue growth and demand for their financial services over the following quarters, as new customers see the company’s value proposition. However, the advertising expense may put pressure on LendingTree margins, which SunTrust believes investors have to be prepared for.

At the time of this publication, LendingTree was seen trading at $54.93, down 8.53 percent.

Image Credit: Public Domain

Latest Ratings for TREE

Date Firm Action From To
Feb 2016 Northland Securities Initiates Coverage on Outperform
Jan 2016 SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Maintains Buy
Dec 2015 Bank of America Upgrades Neutral Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for TREE
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Matthew ThorntonAnalyst Color Long Ideas Price Target Reiteration Markets Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas

Why This Analyst Is Pounding The Table On Qlik Technologies

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Why This Analyst Is Pounding The Table On Qlik Technologies

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  • The share price of Qlik Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: QLIK) has declined 46.41 percent over the past six months, to a low of $21.21 on February 5.
  • Brean Capital’s Yun Kim has maintained a Buy rating on the company, with a price target of $40.
  • Kim believes all potentially negative news is already “more than fully reflected” in the share price.

Analyst Yun Kim mentioned checks suggest the company would report robust results for F4Q, “driven by continued market adoption of its Qlik Sense product and solid execution across all geographies.”

Kim also expects the company to report a sixth consecutive quarter of year-on-year increase in the number of large deals, over $1 million, “demonstrating its ability to execute on large deals.”

Related Link: Tableau’s Plunge Is Killing Other Cloud Names, But Does It Indicate A Long-Term Pattern?

Following the selloff in the stock on February 5, Kim also believes the risk/reward has turned favorable going into the earnings call on February 11 and stated that a “potential modest guide down is already fully reflected in the stock.”

According to the Brean Capital report, Qlik Technologies is possibly the best positioned to benefit from the current trends in data discovery/analytics, which is likely to be entering a mass market adoption stage.

“With QLIK having invested in upgrading its sales infrastructure over the past several years, we believe it is well positioned to grab a lion share of these large deal opportunities that are emerging,” the report added.

Image Credit: Public Domain

Latest Ratings for QLIK

Date Firm Action From To
Jan 2016 Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy
Jan 2016 Nomura Maintains Buy
Jan 2016 Mitsubishi UFJ Initiates Coverage on Overweight

View More Analyst Ratings for QLIK
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Brean Capital LLC Yun KimAnalyst Color Long Ideas Reiteration Analyst Ratings Tech Trading Ideas

CTS Corp Hits A New 52-Week Low Following Q4 Miss, 2016 Guidance

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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CTS Corporation misses by $0.05, misses on revenue (Seeking Alpha)

Shares of CTS Corporation (NYSE: CTS) were trading lower by more than 7 percent on Monday and hit a new 52-week low of $12.90 after the company reported its fourth quarter results.

CTS earned $0.20 per share in the fourth quarter on revenue of $93.3 million. Wall Street analysts were expecting the company to earn $0.25 per share on revenue of $99 million.

GAAP loss for the quarter totaled $13.7 million (or $0.42 per share) in the quarter compared to an earnings of $7.0 million (or $0.21 per share) in the same quarter a year ago. The company noted that its quarterly GAAP loss includes a discrete tax charge of $0.34 per share and restructuring related charges of $0.28 per share.

Sales for the full fiscal year fell 5.4 percent to $382.3 million as currency impacted total sales unfavorably by $7.8 million. Adjusted earnings per share for the full year also fell to $0.93 per share from $0.97 in 2014.

Looking forward to fiscal 2016, CTS guided its earnings per share to a range of $0.95 to $1.05 on revenue of $390 million to $400 million. Wall Street analysts were already estimating the company to earn $1.04 per share on revenue of $397.6 million.

"CTS had a challenging 2015, and we were disappointed with our revenue performance. However, we achieved a number of significant accomplishments during the year. We improved our gross margin. We also successfully completed the transition of manufacturing from our plant in Canada, added several new customers, and acquired new technology and IP as part of our strategic plans," said Kieran O'Sullivan, CEO of CTS Corporation. "We had a record year for new business awards with an increase of 16% year-over-year. We are building backlog and staying on course towards our long-term strategic growth objectives."

Posted-In: CTS CTS Corp Kieran O’SullivanEarnings News Guidance Movers

JC Parets Is Selling Tesla Motors Inc…For GM?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have had an awful 2016. The stock, which closed last year near $240, is all the way down to the $150 range on Monday, February 8. Perhaps even worse for investors, a big name in the world of technical analysis just unveiled a bear thesis on the company in which he prefers buying General Motors Company (NYSE: GM) stock.

"The trend in the automotive industry has been buy Tesla and sell everything else," Parets wrote on Sunday night.

"This has worked for a long time but I believe this is now changing."

Parets displayed a chart comparing GM versus Tesla, which he said has been "building a massive base" over the long-term. It's possible current price movements in Tesla indicates both stocks are undergoing a "bearish to bullish reversal," as the pair broke out of a two-year downtrend line.


"The bullish divergence in momentum last year sparked this rally and now momentum is in a solid bullish range," Parets added, explaining that he wants to be long GM vs. Tesla "aggressively" as long as both are above that 2013 downtrend line.

For its part, GM isn't having a great 2016 either, but it is outperforming Tesla. The latter is down 36 percent year-to-date, while GM has fallen 16 percent this year.

Posted-In: General Motors GM JC ParetsAnalyst Color Short Ideas Movers Tech Trading Ideas

Buckingham Sees 36% Upside in Virgin America

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Virgin America -5% as sentiment sours (Seeking Alpha)

Buckingham Research slashed its price target and fourth-quarter earnings outlook Virgin America Inc (NASDAQ: VA) on the back of its recently released cost per available seat miles (CASM) outlook. However, the brokerage sees 36 percent upside on the stock, driven by the airline’s fundamentals and attractive valuation.

The company's CASM excluding special items, fuel and profit sharing increased about 4.6 percent for the fourth quarter versus the same period last year. CASM is a key metric in airline industry used to measure how much it costs to operate each offered seat mile.

Analyst Daniel McKenzie cut his fourth-quarter profit forecast by $0.20 to $1.10 a share and price target by $11 to $40, which still represents 9.6 times the company's estimated 2016 earnings of $4.16 a share.

The low-cost carrier attributed the nonfuel CASM due to higher-than-expected marketing costs, lumpy maintenance expense that was moved forward from the first quarter 2016 and crew training costs.

"We've set aside mgmt.'s 2016 cost guidance and separately, adopted a more cautious stance on revenue, both largely offset by fuel which softens the EPS impact, hence the nickel trim to our 2016 EPS," McKenzie said in a note. "While competitive capacity remains elevated in 1Q16, industry capacity growth in VA's market nonetheless slows by 200 bps sequentially to roughly +5% in 1H16 (leap-year adjusted). Competitive capacity in its most affected market, Dallas, however slows to +2% (vs +10% in 4Q15)," the analyst added.

However, the airline has room to grow its ancillary revenue. It currently earns $24 per passenger in ancillary revenue versus peers at $32-33 per passenger. Virgin Airline has upgraded its systems and is targeting similar kinds of revenue production.

"We estimate the combined initiatives over time are worth $0.90/share ($10 to the stock)," said McKenzie, who has a Buy rating on Virgin America shares.

The company's shares are down 18 percent this year and trade at about 7x the analyst’s revised…
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Tesla Motors Inc's Stock Continues To Fall As Bearish Sentiment Rises

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Shares of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) were trading lower by more than 3 percent at $157.68 early Monday morning. Monday morning's price action implies the stock could open for trading below its 52-week low of $157.74.

One possible explanation for Monday's decline in Tesla's stock is an overall rise in bearish sentiment. According to StockTwits, 52 percent of investor sentiment is bearish.

Related Link: Could Tesla Motors Inc Stock Be Headed For Double Digits?

StockTwits' data shows that the bearish sentiment of Tesla's stock heading into 2016 was just 22 percent.

Investors and traders appear to also be shrugging off as report from analysts at Credit Suisse, which suggested that the company's slower-than-expected Model X ramp is not due to any fundamental issues. The analysts added that Tesla's slowed production could be attributed to addressing quality issues.

The company is scheduled to release its Q4 earnings report on February 10.

Posted-In: Credit Suisse stocktwits Tesla Tesla Model X Tesla stockNews Pre-Market Outlook Movers

BlackBerry Falls 2% As Company Confirms Job Cuts

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Shares of BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ: BBRY) were trading lower by more than 2 percent early Monday morning after the company confirmed it plans on initiating large-scale job cuts.

Mobile Syrup, an independent media source that covers mobile technology news in Canada, reported on Friday that BlackBerry has fired approximately 1,000 employees in both Canada and the U.S.

BlackBerry confirmed in a statement over the weekend that approximately 200 employees, not the previously suggested 1,000 figure, have been impacted by a headcount reduction as part of a turnaround plan.

"As BlackBerry continues to execute its turnaround plan, we remain focused on driving efficiencies across our global workforce," BlackBerry said in a statement. "This means finding new ways to enable us to capitalize on growth opportunities, while driving toward sustainable profitability across all parts of our business. As a result, approximately 200 employees have been impacted in Canada and Florida. It also means that BlackBerry is actively recruiting in those areas of our business that will drive growth. For those employees that have recently left the company, we know that they have worked hard on behalf of our company and we are grateful for their commitment and contributions."

Posted-In: Blackberry BlackBerry Job Cuts BlackBerry Turn Around Mobile SyrupNews Movers Tech

Why The ‘Sultan Of Chaos’ Is Freaking Out

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted Op-Ed at,

Picture sleepless nights at ‘Sultan’ Erdogan’s palace in Ankara. Imagine him livid when he learns the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed by Russian air power, started a preemptive Battle of Aleppo – through the Bayirbucak region – cutting off Ankara’s top weaponizing corridor and Jihadi highway.
Residents inspect damage after airstrikes by pro-Syrian government forces in Anadan city, about 10 kilometers away from the towns of Nubul and Zahraa, Northern Aleppo countryside, Syria February 3, 2016. © Abdalrhman Ismail / Reuters
Who controls this corridor will control the final outcome of the war in Syria.
Meanwhile, in Geneva, the remote-controlled Syrian opposition, a.k.a. High Negotiations Committee, graphically demonstrated they never wanted to meet with the Damascus delegation in the first place – “proximity” talks or otherwise, even after Washington and Moscow roughly agreed on a two-year transition plan leading to a theoretically secular, nonsectarian Syria.
The Saudi front wanted no less than Ahrar al-Sham, Jaysh al-Islam and all Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria, collaborators at the table in Geneva. So the Geneva charade, quicker than one can say “Road to Aleppo!” was exposed for what it is.

And forget about NATO

Notorious Saudi intel mastermind Prince Turki, a former mentor of one Osama bin Laden, has been to Paris on a PR offensive; all he could muster was an avalanche of non-denial denials – and blaming the whole Syria tragedy on Bashar al-Assad.

The bulk of the Syrian ‘opposition’ used to be armchair warriors co-opted by the CIA for years, as well as CIA Muslim Brotherhood patsies/vassals. Many of these characters preferred the joys of Paris to a hard slog on Syrian ground. Now the ‘opposition’ is basically warlords answering to the House of Saud even for bottles of water – regardless of the suit-and-tie former Ba’ath Party ministers handpicked to be the face of the opposition for the gullible Western corporate media.

Meanwhile, the ‘4+1’ – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah – is now winning decisive facts on the ground. The break down;

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Catch Up On The Latest Chinese News With These Seven Bullets

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With China offline for the next seven days as its celebrates its Lunar New Year, here are 7 bullets from Evercore ISI to get everyone up to speed on the latest developments in the world’s most troubled “growth” economy.

Evercore ISI China Weekly Summary

No one can remember (and we can’t think up) more than 7 bullets on anything.  Here, this week’s top China 7.

  • Lunar New Year, Feb 7 – 13.  All markets, business and gov’t closed the entire week.  There will be little news.  All on vacation; many headed home.  Jan-Feb data are always fouled up.    
  • Beijing says 6.5 – 7.0% is the 2016 Real GDP growth target.  In China — targets ‘set’ are targets ‘met.’  But actual economic growth this rapid — implausible to us.     
  • We have seen a giant rise recently in cheerleading stories in China’s media by many officials - claiming all is OK in the economy, finance and currency.  This is jawboning up confidence.  Not convincing to anyone.      
  • China’s domestic equity markets remain broken.  Friday close 2763 — down 21.9% YTD; down 46.5% since Jun 2015 peak of (5166).  The State is in charge; not investors.            
  • The Chinese citizenry can’t find enough attractive destinations for their savings.  So, creative new instruments are arriving just in time to fill the vacuum in an environment of — doubtful regulation, unsophisticated investors, a weak economy and a leadership elite with little ‘appreciation of’ or ‘experience with’ market forces.   
  • CNY is still on a downward path, albeit with interruptions.  We are using 6.80/USD year-end 2016; now 6.53/USD.  Forex Reserves Jan, down $99 bln, vs. Dec, down $108 bln.  We are not alarmed.        
  • New housing stimulus this last week.  A five percentage point reduction in minimum down-payment for both first home and second home buyers.  Small help.  


Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...

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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?


Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?


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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped


more from Bitcoin


D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...

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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>