Archive for 2016

Buy Ugly and Out-of-Favor Stocks | RIGP Up 120%

By Johnny Hopkins. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Back on February 22, 2016 I bought Transocean Partners LLC (NYSE: RIGP).

I picked it because it was the cheapest stock at the time in our “All Investable Stock Screener”, which you can register for here. As you can see from the chart below, the stock price had been hammered, down almost 49% at the time I bought it. This is exactly the type of ugly and out-of-favor stock that value investors love.

(SOURCE: Google Finance)

(Source: Google Finance)

Here’s what I wrote at the time:

How does it look in the Screener?

Let’s take a closer look at Transocean in the “All Investable Stock Screener”.

The company currently has a market cap of $534 million, while its Enterprise Value (EV) is significantly lower at $394 million.

The reason its EV is so low is because the company has an excess of $140 million of cash and cash equivalents once you subtract its total debt. As a acquirer, we subtract this $140 million from the current market capitalisation of $534 million, which leaves us with a total EV of $394 million.

The company’s operating earnings, which are taken from the top of the income statement, are$216 million.

In other words, we’re paying $534 million for a company with an EV of just $394 million, that is returning operating earnings of $216 million on that $394 Million.

This gives us an Acquirer’s Multiple of 1.83, when we divide the EV ($394 million) by the operating earnings ($216 million).

Why has the share price been dropping?

Transocean Partners LLC owns, operates and acquires offshore drilling rigs. Its assets consist of 51 percent ownership interest in each of the entities that owns or operates the three ultra-deepwater drilling rigs operating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The company’s operating earnings were down a staggering 533% for the 3 months ending September 2015, compared to the pcp (previous corresponding period). Here’s all you need to know:

(SOURCE: NASDAQ.COM)

(SOURCE: NASDAQ.COM)

The problem for Transocean is simply that oil prices are currently sitting around US$33 and they’re not showing any sign of recovery. That means that energy companies slash their capital budgets, resulting in fewer contracts for offshore drillers. Offshore drillers then churn through their backlog, and their revenue declines.

This is typical of any company whose share price is tied directly or indirectly to a commodity price. Offshore drillers have been hit hard by the drop in oil prices. In…
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What Is The Carried-Interest Tax Loophole Trump Wants To Close?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

What Is The Carried-Interest Tax Loophole Trump Wants To Close?

The 2016 presidential race was one of the most divisive in history. However, even though the campaign was heated at times, there actually were a handful of ideas on which Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton found common ground.

One of those ideas was closing the carried-interest tax loophole.

Trump has been very clear about his intent to significantly lower the tax burden on U.S. corporations and most individual taxpayers. However, a handful of wealthy fund managers may no longer be able to maneuver their way into a lower tax rate than the average American.

The Carried-Interest Tax

Here’s how the carried-interest tax loophole works: Most Americans earn income that is taxed at a progressive rate of up to 39.6 percent. Fund managers, on the other hand, earn the majority of their annual income based on the returns their funds generate. Typically, fund managers are paid a sizable portion of a fund’s annual returns. This payment may be around 20 percent of the fund’s profits, which can amount to millions of dollars. Because of the carried interest loophole, these payments are taxed as capital gains rather than income.

The long-term capital gains tax rate is currently capped at just 20 percent.

In other words, billionaire fund managers, such as Warren Buffett, pay a significantly lower tax rate than an American earning $40,000 in income per year.

Trump has pledged to “get rid of” carried interest. If he follows through on his promise, fund managers may be the only members of the financial community to be worse-off during the Trump presidency.

Since Election Day, the Financial Select Sectors SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLF) is up 16.6 percent.

Posted-In: carried-interest tax carried-interest tax loopholeNews Education Hedge Funds Politics Movers General Best of Benzinga





Globalstar Gets Big Bump Following FCC News

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Globalstar Gets Big Bump Following FCC News

Shares of Globalstar, Inc. (NYSE: GSAT) are soaring 30 percent on Monday after the company received some positive news from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). Earlier this year, the FCC rejected Globalstar’s proposal to use satellite signal frequencies to distribute its mobile broadband services. The FCC rejected the original plan on the grounds that Globalstar would gain a special competitive advantage. Globalstar rivals also argued that the approach could interfere with other mobile devices.

Globalstar filed a revised proposal on November 9, and the new proposal seems to have addressed the FCC’s primary concerns.


“Globalstar’s Revised Proposal provides significant protections to adjacent operations, expands the nation’s broadband spectrum supply and will improve wireless broadband service for consumers in the United States,” the company said in a press release on December 16.

Despite the big Monday move, Globalstar shares are still down 4.1 percent in 2016 and significantly off 2016 highs in the $3 range. FCC chairman Tom Wheeler will be resigning in January, and the Trump administration will be tasked with filling two vacant FCC positions.

At least one options trader is optimistic about the news. Following the report, there was nearly 5,000 in volume on January 2017 $3.0 Globalstar call options. The stock would need to more than double by the end of January for those options to be in-the-money.

Posted-In: Long Ideas News Intraday Update Movers Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





Lingering Effects Of Bankruptcy Makes Valuing Ambac Financial Shares Difficult

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Lingering Effects Of Bankruptcy Makes Valuing Ambac Financial Shares Difficult

Shares of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBC) plunged more than 17 percent after MKM Partners downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral, citing difficulties in valuing the company.

“While the parent company came out of Chapter 11, its operating company remained in rehabilitation and accordingly there was no way for capital to leave the operating company to the parent, except for a small amount related to a tax tolling agreement,” analyst Harry Fong wrote in a note.

Recently, Ambac’s Wisconsin regulator said, “[A]t the present time, absent further actions, AAC has insufficient capital to demonstrate that a “durable” exit can be achieved to the satisfaction of the Rehabilitator.”

Analyst’s Commentary, Price Target

Fong set a price target of $10 versus a fair value target of $27.

Fong said he continues to have “great difficulties” assessing an appropriate value for the company. Its trailing adjusted book value (ABV) is $32.12. The analyst said he valuing Ambac at a 70 percent discount to its trailing ABV or $10.

“For comparison, Syncora that recently came out of rehabilitation trades at about a 77 percent discount to its trailing adjusted book value. Valuing Ambac at a 77 percent discount to ABV yields a price of about $7.50,” Fong added.

At last check, shares of Ambac plunged 16 percent to $21.84.

Latest Ratings for AMBC

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2016 MKM Partners Downgrades Neutral Sell
Nov 2014 MKM Partners Upgrades Neutral Sell
Mar 2014 MKM Partners Downgrades Neutral Sell

View More Analyst Ratings for AMBC


View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Analyst Color News Short Ideas Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Movers Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





Why Darden Restaurants Is A More Attractive Stock Than It Was A Year Ago

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Why Darden Restaurants Is A More Attractive Stock Than It Was A Year Ago

Stephens remains on Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI)’s sidelines ahead of the restaurant operator’s https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/12/8819047

Stephens remains on Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI)’s sidelines ahead of the restaurant operator’s second-quarter earnings release Tuesday. However, the brokerage raised its price target to $75 from $66 on improving Olive Garden results.

“[D]espite our more positive outlook on casual dining heading into 2017, we believe most of the benefits referenced in our thesis on CD are already priced into the stock (up over +17 percent since the election),” analyst Will Slabaugh wrote in a note.

Olive Garden: Positive Catalyst For Darden

That said, Slabaugh noted that the Equal-Weight rated Darden shares are now a more attractive long-term investment than they were 12–18 months ago given the improved top line at Olive Garden, which stands out among recent trends in the industry.

Following first quarter earnings, Darden maintained its FY 2017 blended SSS growth estimate of +1.0 percent to +2.0 percent (vs. consensus of +1.8 percent) and raised FY 2017 adj. EPS guidance to a range of $3.87 to $3.97 (was $3.80 to $3.90).

At last check, shares of Darden Restaurants were down 0.32 percent to $75.29.

Posted-In: Analyst Color Earnings News Guidance Price Target Previews Reiteration Restaurants Best of Benzinga





Will A Trump Presidency Be A Blessing Or Curse For American CEOs?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Will A Trump Presidency Be A Blessing Or Curse For American CEOs?

Corporate CEOs are scrambling to best position themselves and their companies under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

According to a Bloomberg report, Trump happens to be both a “champion of corporate tax cuts” while simultaneously being an “anti-free trade and a big-company bully. The characterization of the president-elect was perhaps best exemplified by comments made by Manny Chirico, the CEO of PVH Corp (NYSE: PVH).

“I’ve got a great deal of confidence with the new administration coming in,” Chirico told Bloomberg Television, adding in the next breath, “You have to be concerned about some of the talk and the rhetoric on trade.”

Expect The Worst?

Liz Cohen, an executive vice president for financial communications at Weber Shandwick, a public-relations strategy firm, is advising clients to undertake a vulnerability analysis just as they would for an agitated activist investor.

She told Bloomberg that under Trump’s reign, companies need to “take a look at what parts of the business could be criticized.”

Trump has already publicly criticized two companies through tweets, Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) and Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) — two companies within a sector that was expected to flourish under his administration.

“A lot of guys are thinking, ‘Oh man, I don’t want him tweeting about me and my company,’” Ken Lowe, CEO of Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNI) also told Bloomberg.

Trump Is A CEO

One of Trump’s major selling points throughout the campaign was his experience running companies, and Lowe pointed out Trump is merely using this experience in his role as president.

Lowe added that Trump is acting like any other CEO would and is publicly asking, “Why are you spending so much money?”

Image Credit: By Michael Vadon (Donald Trump) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Posted-In: Bloomberg Donald Trump Donald Trump Twitter Manny ChiricoPolitics Movers Media General Best of Benzinga





Weekly Market Recap Dec 18, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The market continues to act very well; after a big run up the week prior to this there was some consolidation needed and that is indeed what occurred.  There was some temper tantrum knee jerk reaction to the WELL TELEGRAPHED rate hike Wednesday so that was a bit amusing but all in all, the major indexes went nowhere for the week which is exactly what bulls would like to see following a major spike.    Some people wrung their hands about the idea that there will be “3 rate hikes” in 2017 (up from the previous forecast of wait for it…. 2).  Let’s rewind a year ago … “they” were telling us there would be 4 rate hikes in 2016.  Not so much.  But this year we may have Trumpflation so we’ll see if 2017 actually brings follow through.

The Federal Reserve raised its key short-term rate on Wednesday, as had been universally expected, but it also forecast three rate increases in 2017, compared with the two that had been anticipated at its previous meeting in September. While the revised outlook could be taken as a positive sign—the Fed has said it would only raise rates when it deems the economy strong enough to withstand such a move—it added an element of uncertainty to the market.  In raising rates, the Fed moved its key short-term rate to a range of 0.5%-0.75% from 0.25% to 0.5%. The Fed decision marks the central bank’s first increase in rates since last December, which itself was the first in about a decade.

“The view seems to be that Trump will deliver on his fiscal stimulus promise, the economy will expand sharply, inflation will rise, and the Fed will need to hike rates more than currently forecast, but not by enough to lead to a serious stock market selloff,” wrote Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index.

The only major economic report of the week was retail sales which only rose 0.1% vs expectations of 0.3%.

While our main focus is U.S. equities it is worth noting Monday saw the largest plunge in the…
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AG Lynch Admits She “Regrets” Tarmac Meeting With Bill Clinton

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As yet another member of President Obama’s administration desperately attempts to define their own legacy (with words other than “failed”, “rigged”, or “favoritism”), Attorney General Loretta Lynch put on her gentlest, quietest voice for an ‘exit’ interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, admitting she “regretted sitting down” with Bill Clinton because “it gave people concern” and wants to be remembered for ensuring justice to “all Americans.”

As The Hill reports, Lynch said Sunday that the fallout from her tarmac meeting with former President Bill Clinton was “painful” for her.

Lorettya Lynch on the fallout over her meeting with Bill Clinton: “It was painful for me” #CNNSOTU https://t.co/w3ewyrtBNb pic.twitter.com/bZA9V0qzrC

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) December 18, 2016

I do regret sitting down and having a conversation with him, because it did give people concern. And as I said, my greatest concern has always been making sure that people understand that the Department of Justice works in a way that is independent and looks at everybody equally,” Lynch said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“And when you do something that gives people a reason to think differently, that’s a problem. It was a problem for me. It was painful for me, and so I felt it was important to clarify it as quickly and as clearly and as cleanly as possible.”

The Clinton campaign has cited Comey’s decision to send a letter to Congress just days before the election about newly discovered emails as one of the reasons she lost.

“But certainly if Bill Clinton hadn’t gotten on the tarmac that time and gone to you, things might have been different,” said host Jake Tapper. “You would have had more say. You would have been able to control Comey more … It might have changed the letter that he gave at the end there.”

Lynch replied: “I don’t think it would have changed his view of what he had to say or not say to Congress.”

So to be clear, Lynch regrets the meeting only because she was caught and it caused controversy… not because it was clearly a bad judgment call!

But, as Lynch went on to explains, she wants her legacy


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Comparing Donald Trump to Hitler Is a Slippery Slope

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Throughout the presidential campaign, Donald Trump has been compared to Adolf Hitler on more than one occasion. Especially after TIME Magazine named him 2016 “Person of the Year,” linking the president elect to the German dictator, who also received the same homage in 1938, has significantly increased, as liberals try to explain the rise of the populist businessman.

Just take a look at Twitter where there is no shortage of Trump-Hitler tweets:

Hmm… pic.twitter.com/vVQMg7Na4U

— David Weiner (@daweiner) December 7, 2016

I apologize for writing dozens of tweets that compare Trump to Hitler. It should be hundreds of tweets but I just don’t have the time.

— Frank Conniff (@FrankConniff) December 10, 2016

1938: Adolf Hitler, TIME Person of the Year

2016: Donald Trump, TIME Person of the Year pic.twitter.com/uDVcTiLhtd

— Savannah L. Barker (@savannah_lb) December 7, 2016

The New York Times published a review of the television series “The Man in the High Castle” on Thursday, which depicts an alternative America where the Allies entered World War II too late, and the United States is ruled by the fascist Nazi Germany and Japanese regimes.

 Donald Trump trump hitler photo

Donald Trump no nazi

Photo by frankieleon

But the reviewer says the show isn’t too far off of what America could be under Donald Trump .

As the internet has taught us, Nazi analogies tend to crush nuance into fine powder,” the review states. “But if it would be hyperbole to treat the series like a documentary, it would be denial to say it plays no differently now than it did before. However hopeful some people may find the election results, there are also bigots who feel validated, for whom the permission to bully and strong-arm was not a sad side effect of the campaign but the whole point. And ‘The Man in the High Castle,’ a drama about finding the imagination to resist darkness, has a new relevance, asked for or not.”

Granted, there are some similarities with their rise to power and others have even gone as far as to say Trump’s rallies are very Hitler-esque. But is this a fair comparison or just political demonizing,…
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Damaging The Deep State: Trump, Russia, And China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Even before he takes office, President-elect Trump is turning the world upside down.

It has become clear his attitude towards Russia and China is very different from that of his predecessors. Amazingly, he is already wresting power from the deep state, causing it great resentment, which under Obama, Clinton and the Bushes, ran geopolitical policy. From January, barring accidents the world will not be the same, the establishment up-ended.

This short article builds on information available to date and speculates how America’s relations with Russia and China are likely to evolve, and the implications for NATO and Europe. It attempts to cut through the disinformation and noise (from all sides) to assess how Trump will change super-power relations.

Russia

President-elect Trump has signalled his respect for President Putin as a leader, and Putin, who has been careful to not comment on the US presidential election, has indicated his respect for Trump. Furthermore, Trump, who admittedly said lots of contradictory statements to get elected, clearly wishes to reduce America’s funding commitment to NATO and to reduce American involvement in the Middle East. These objectives will obviously find favour with Putin, and could form the basis of a relationship reset between Russia and the West.

The American deep state was responsible for moving missiles within range of Moscow, under cover of targeting Tehran, in this year’s escalation of a new cold war. It follows the covert destabilisation by the US of Ukraine over the last decade and American backing for various terrorist groups in Syria, following Syria’s refusal to permit pipelines from the Gulf to cross her territory five years ago. Since the fall of the USSR, NATO has moved its eastern border to within 300 miles of Moscow. Elements in the CIA, working to their own agenda, are still trying to demonise Russia without any evidence, as the Washington Post story about Russian intervention in the election demonstrates.

The Trump team dismissed this attempt to blacken the Russians as disinformation, from the same sources that came up with the fiction of Saddam Hussain’s weapons of mass destruction. The timing of accusations over Russian involvement probably has much to do with influencing the electoral college’s votes, a last stand against Trump’s election, in which case the intervention is politically outrageous. But this is


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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