Archive for 2016

Buy Ugly and Out-of-Favor Stocks | RIGP Up 120%

By Johnny Hopkins. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Back on February 22, 2016 I bought Transocean Partners LLC (NYSE: RIGP).

I picked it because it was the cheapest stock at the time in our “All Investable Stock Screener”, which you can register for here. As you can see from the chart below, the stock price had been hammered, down almost 49% at the time I bought it. This is exactly the type of ugly and out-of-favor stock that value investors love.

(SOURCE: Google Finance)

(Source: Google Finance)

Here’s what I wrote at the time:

How does it look in the Screener?

Let’s take a closer look at Transocean in the “All Investable Stock Screener”.

The company currently has a market cap of $534 million, while its Enterprise Value (EV) is significantly lower at $394 million.

The reason its EV is so low is because the company has an excess of $140 million of cash and cash equivalents once you subtract its total debt. As a acquirer, we subtract this $140 million from the current market capitalisation of $534 million, which leaves us with a total EV of $394 million.

The company’s operating earnings, which are taken from the top of the income statement, are$216 million.

In other words, we’re paying $534 million for a company with an EV of just $394 million, that is returning operating earnings of $216 million on that $394 Million.

This gives us an Acquirer’s Multiple of 1.83, when we divide the EV ($394 million) by the operating earnings ($216 million).

Why has the share price been dropping?

Transocean Partners LLC owns, operates and acquires offshore drilling rigs. Its assets consist of 51 percent ownership interest in each of the entities that owns or operates the three ultra-deepwater drilling rigs operating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The company’s operating earnings were down a staggering 533% for the 3 months ending September 2015, compared to the pcp (previous corresponding period). Here’s all you need to know:

(SOURCE: NASDAQ.COM)

(SOURCE: NASDAQ.COM)

The problem for Transocean is simply that oil prices are currently sitting around US$33 and they’re not showing any sign of recovery. That means that energy companies slash their capital budgets, resulting in fewer contracts for offshore drillers. Offshore drillers then churn through their backlog, and their revenue declines.

This is typical of any company whose share price is tied directly or indirectly to a commodity price. Offshore drillers have been hit hard by the drop in oil prices. In…
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What Is The Carried-Interest Tax Loophole Trump Wants To Close?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

What Is The Carried-Interest Tax Loophole Trump Wants To Close?

The 2016 presidential race was one of the most divisive in history. However, even though the campaign was heated at times, there actually were a handful of ideas on which Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton found common ground.

One of those ideas was closing the carried-interest tax loophole.

Trump has been very clear about his intent to significantly lower the tax burden on U.S. corporations and most individual taxpayers. However, a handful of wealthy fund managers may no longer be able to maneuver their way into a lower tax rate than the average American.

The Carried-Interest Tax

Here’s how the carried-interest tax loophole works: Most Americans earn income that is taxed at a progressive rate of up to 39.6 percent. Fund managers, on the other hand, earn the majority of their annual income based on the returns their funds generate. Typically, fund managers are paid a sizable portion of a fund’s annual returns. This payment may be around 20 percent of the fund’s profits, which can amount to millions of dollars. Because of the carried interest loophole, these payments are taxed as capital gains rather than income.

The long-term capital gains tax rate is currently capped at just 20 percent.

In other words, billionaire fund managers, such as Warren Buffett, pay a significantly lower tax rate than an American earning $40,000 in income per year.

Trump has pledged to “get rid of” carried interest. If he follows through on his promise, fund managers may be the only members of the financial community to be worse-off during the Trump presidency.

Since Election Day, the Financial Select Sectors SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLF) is up 16.6 percent.

Posted-In: carried-interest tax carried-interest tax loopholeNews Education Hedge Funds Politics Movers General Best of Benzinga





Globalstar Gets Big Bump Following FCC News

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Globalstar Gets Big Bump Following FCC News

Shares of Globalstar, Inc. (NYSE: GSAT) are soaring 30 percent on Monday after the company received some positive news from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). Earlier this year, the FCC rejected Globalstar’s proposal to use satellite signal frequencies to distribute its mobile broadband services. The FCC rejected the original plan on the grounds that Globalstar would gain a special competitive advantage. Globalstar rivals also argued that the approach could interfere with other mobile devices.

Globalstar filed a revised proposal on November 9, and the new proposal seems to have addressed the FCC’s primary concerns.


“Globalstar’s Revised Proposal provides significant protections to adjacent operations, expands the nation’s broadband spectrum supply and will improve wireless broadband service for consumers in the United States,” the company said in a press release on December 16.

Despite the big Monday move, Globalstar shares are still down 4.1 percent in 2016 and significantly off 2016 highs in the $3 range. FCC chairman Tom Wheeler will be resigning in January, and the Trump administration will be tasked with filling two vacant FCC positions.

At least one options trader is optimistic about the news. Following the report, there was nearly 5,000 in volume on January 2017 $3.0 Globalstar call options. The stock would need to more than double by the end of January for those options to be in-the-money.

Posted-In: Long Ideas News Intraday Update Movers Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





Lingering Effects Of Bankruptcy Makes Valuing Ambac Financial Shares Difficult

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Lingering Effects Of Bankruptcy Makes Valuing Ambac Financial Shares Difficult

Shares of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBC) plunged more than 17 percent after MKM Partners downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral, citing difficulties in valuing the company.

“While the parent company came out of Chapter 11, its operating company remained in rehabilitation and accordingly there was no way for capital to leave the operating company to the parent, except for a small amount related to a tax tolling agreement,” analyst Harry Fong wrote in a note.

Recently, Ambac’s Wisconsin regulator said, “[A]t the present time, absent further actions, AAC has insufficient capital to demonstrate that a “durable” exit can be achieved to the satisfaction of the Rehabilitator.”

Analyst’s Commentary, Price Target

Fong set a price target of $10 versus a fair value target of $27.

Fong said he continues to have “great difficulties” assessing an appropriate value for the company. Its trailing adjusted book value (ABV) is $32.12. The analyst said he valuing Ambac at a 70 percent discount to its trailing ABV or $10.

“For comparison, Syncora that recently came out of rehabilitation trades at about a 77 percent discount to its trailing adjusted book value. Valuing Ambac at a 77 percent discount to ABV yields a price of about $7.50,” Fong added.

At last check, shares of Ambac plunged 16 percent to $21.84.

Latest Ratings for AMBC

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2016 MKM Partners Downgrades Neutral Sell
Nov 2014 MKM Partners Upgrades Neutral Sell
Mar 2014 MKM Partners Downgrades Neutral Sell

View More Analyst Ratings for AMBC


View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Analyst Color News Short Ideas Downgrades Price Target Analyst Ratings Movers Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga





Why Darden Restaurants Is A More Attractive Stock Than It Was A Year Ago

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Why Darden Restaurants Is A More Attractive Stock Than It Was A Year Ago

Stephens remains on Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI)’s sidelines ahead of the restaurant operator’s https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/12/8819047

Stephens remains on Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE: DRI)’s sidelines ahead of the restaurant operator’s second-quarter earnings release Tuesday. However, the brokerage raised its price target to $75 from $66 on improving Olive Garden results.

“[D]espite our more positive outlook on casual dining heading into 2017, we believe most of the benefits referenced in our thesis on CD are already priced into the stock (up over +17 percent since the election),” analyst Will Slabaugh wrote in a note.

Olive Garden: Positive Catalyst For Darden

That said, Slabaugh noted that the Equal-Weight rated Darden shares are now a more attractive long-term investment than they were 12–18 months ago given the improved top line at Olive Garden, which stands out among recent trends in the industry.

Following first quarter earnings, Darden maintained its FY 2017 blended SSS growth estimate of +1.0 percent to +2.0 percent (vs. consensus of +1.8 percent) and raised FY 2017 adj. EPS guidance to a range of $3.87 to $3.97 (was $3.80 to $3.90).

At last check, shares of Darden Restaurants were down 0.32 percent to $75.29.

Posted-In: Analyst Color Earnings News Guidance Price Target Previews Reiteration Restaurants Best of Benzinga





Will A Trump Presidency Be A Blessing Or Curse For American CEOs?

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Will A Trump Presidency Be A Blessing Or Curse For American CEOs?

Corporate CEOs are scrambling to best position themselves and their companies under President-elect Donald Trump’s administration.

According to a Bloomberg report, Trump happens to be both a “champion of corporate tax cuts” while simultaneously being an “anti-free trade and a big-company bully. The characterization of the president-elect was perhaps best exemplified by comments made by Manny Chirico, the CEO of PVH Corp (NYSE: PVH).

“I’ve got a great deal of confidence with the new administration coming in,” Chirico told Bloomberg Television, adding in the next breath, “You have to be concerned about some of the talk and the rhetoric on trade.”

Expect The Worst?

Liz Cohen, an executive vice president for financial communications at Weber Shandwick, a public-relations strategy firm, is advising clients to undertake a vulnerability analysis just as they would for an agitated activist investor.

She told Bloomberg that under Trump’s reign, companies need to “take a look at what parts of the business could be criticized.”

Trump has already publicly criticized two companies through tweets, Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) and Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) — two companies within a sector that was expected to flourish under his administration.

“A lot of guys are thinking, ‘Oh man, I don’t want him tweeting about me and my company,’” Ken Lowe, CEO of Scripps Networks Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNI) also told Bloomberg.

Trump Is A CEO

One of Trump’s major selling points throughout the campaign was his experience running companies, and Lowe pointed out Trump is merely using this experience in his role as president.

Lowe added that Trump is acting like any other CEO would and is publicly asking, “Why are you spending so much money?”

Image Credit: By Michael Vadon (Donald Trump) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Posted-In: Bloomberg Donald Trump Donald Trump Twitter Manny ChiricoPolitics Movers Media General Best of Benzinga





Weekly Market Recap Dec 18, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

The market continues to act very well; after a big run up the week prior to this there was some consolidation needed and that is indeed what occurred.  There was some temper tantrum knee jerk reaction to the WELL TELEGRAPHED rate hike Wednesday so that was a bit amusing but all in all, the major indexes went nowhere for the week which is exactly what bulls would like to see following a major spike.    Some people wrung their hands about the idea that there will be “3 rate hikes” in 2017 (up from the previous forecast of wait for it…. 2).  Let’s rewind a year ago … “they” were telling us there would be 4 rate hikes in 2016.  Not so much.  But this year we may have Trumpflation so we’ll see if 2017 actually brings follow through.

The Federal Reserve raised its key short-term rate on Wednesday, as had been universally expected, but it also forecast three rate increases in 2017, compared with the two that had been anticipated at its previous meeting in September. While the revised outlook could be taken as a positive sign—the Fed has said it would only raise rates when it deems the economy strong enough to withstand such a move—it added an element of uncertainty to the market.  In raising rates, the Fed moved its key short-term rate to a range of 0.5%-0.75% from 0.25% to 0.5%. The Fed decision marks the central bank’s first increase in rates since last December, which itself was the first in about a decade.

“The view seems to be that Trump will deliver on his fiscal stimulus promise, the economy will expand sharply, inflation will rise, and the Fed will need to hike rates more than currently forecast, but not by enough to lead to a serious stock market selloff,” wrote Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index.

The only major economic report of the week was retail sales which only rose 0.1% vs expectations of 0.3%.

While our main focus is U.S. equities it is worth noting Monday saw the largest plunge in the…
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AG Lynch Admits She “Regrets” Tarmac Meeting With Bill Clinton

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As yet another member of President Obama’s administration desperately attempts to define their own legacy (with words other than “failed”, “rigged”, or “favoritism”), Attorney General Loretta Lynch put on her gentlest, quietest voice for an ‘exit’ interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, admitting she “regretted sitting down” with Bill Clinton because “it gave people concern” and wants to be remembered for ensuring justice to “all Americans.”

As The Hill reports, Lynch said Sunday that the fallout from her tarmac meeting with former President Bill Clinton was “painful” for her.

Lorettya Lynch on the fallout over her meeting with Bill Clinton: “It was painful for me” #CNNSOTU https://t.co/w3ewyrtBNb pic.twitter.com/bZA9V0qzrC

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) December 18, 2016

I do regret sitting down and having a conversation with him, because it did give people concern. And as I said, my greatest concern has always been making sure that people understand that the Department of Justice works in a way that is independent and looks at everybody equally,” Lynch said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“And when you do something that gives people a reason to think differently, that’s a problem. It was a problem for me. It was painful for me, and so I felt it was important to clarify it as quickly and as clearly and as cleanly as possible.”

The Clinton campaign has cited Comey’s decision to send a letter to Congress just days before the election about newly discovered emails as one of the reasons she lost.

“But certainly if Bill Clinton hadn’t gotten on the tarmac that time and gone to you, things might have been different,” said host Jake Tapper. “You would have had more say. You would have been able to control Comey more … It might have changed the letter that he gave at the end there.”

Lynch replied: “I don’t think it would have changed his view of what he had to say or not say to Congress.”

So to be clear, Lynch regrets the meeting only because she was caught and it caused controversy… not because it was clearly a bad judgment call!

But, as Lynch went on to explains, she wants her legacy


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Comparing Donald Trump to Hitler Is a Slippery Slope

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Throughout the presidential campaign, Donald Trump has been compared to Adolf Hitler on more than one occasion. Especially after TIME Magazine named him 2016 “Person of the Year,” linking the president elect to the German dictator, who also received the same homage in 1938, has significantly increased, as liberals try to explain the rise of the populist businessman.

Just take a look at Twitter where there is no shortage of Trump-Hitler tweets:

Hmm… pic.twitter.com/vVQMg7Na4U

— David Weiner (@daweiner) December 7, 2016

I apologize for writing dozens of tweets that compare Trump to Hitler. It should be hundreds of tweets but I just don’t have the time.

— Frank Conniff (@FrankConniff) December 10, 2016

1938: Adolf Hitler, TIME Person of the Year

2016: Donald Trump, TIME Person of the Year pic.twitter.com/uDVcTiLhtd

— Savannah L. Barker (@savannah_lb) December 7, 2016

The New York Times published a review of the television series “The Man in the High Castle” on Thursday, which depicts an alternative America where the Allies entered World War II too late, and the United States is ruled by the fascist Nazi Germany and Japanese regimes.

 Donald Trump trump hitler photo

Donald Trump no nazi

Photo by frankieleon

But the reviewer says the show isn’t too far off of what America could be under Donald Trump .

As the internet has taught us, Nazi analogies tend to crush nuance into fine powder,” the review states. “But if it would be hyperbole to treat the series like a documentary, it would be denial to say it plays no differently now than it did before. However hopeful some people may find the election results, there are also bigots who feel validated, for whom the permission to bully and strong-arm was not a sad side effect of the campaign but the whole point. And ‘The Man in the High Castle,’ a drama about finding the imagination to resist darkness, has a new relevance, asked for or not.”

Granted, there are some similarities with their rise to power and others have even gone as far as to say Trump’s rallies are very Hitler-esque. But is this a fair comparison or just political demonizing,…
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Damaging The Deep State: Trump, Russia, And China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Even before he takes office, President-elect Trump is turning the world upside down.

It has become clear his attitude towards Russia and China is very different from that of his predecessors. Amazingly, he is already wresting power from the deep state, causing it great resentment, which under Obama, Clinton and the Bushes, ran geopolitical policy. From January, barring accidents the world will not be the same, the establishment up-ended.

This short article builds on information available to date and speculates how America’s relations with Russia and China are likely to evolve, and the implications for NATO and Europe. It attempts to cut through the disinformation and noise (from all sides) to assess how Trump will change super-power relations.

Russia

President-elect Trump has signalled his respect for President Putin as a leader, and Putin, who has been careful to not comment on the US presidential election, has indicated his respect for Trump. Furthermore, Trump, who admittedly said lots of contradictory statements to get elected, clearly wishes to reduce America’s funding commitment to NATO and to reduce American involvement in the Middle East. These objectives will obviously find favour with Putin, and could form the basis of a relationship reset between Russia and the West.

The American deep state was responsible for moving missiles within range of Moscow, under cover of targeting Tehran, in this year’s escalation of a new cold war. It follows the covert destabilisation by the US of Ukraine over the last decade and American backing for various terrorist groups in Syria, following Syria’s refusal to permit pipelines from the Gulf to cross her territory five years ago. Since the fall of the USSR, NATO has moved its eastern border to within 300 miles of Moscow. Elements in the CIA, working to their own agenda, are still trying to demonise Russia without any evidence, as the Washington Post story about Russian intervention in the election demonstrates.

The Trump team dismissed this attempt to blacken the Russians as disinformation, from the same sources that came up with the fiction of Saddam Hussain’s weapons of mass destruction. The timing of accusations over Russian involvement probably has much to do with influencing the electoral college’s votes, a last stand against Trump’s election, in which case the intervention is politically outrageous. But this is


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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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