Netherlands Vote Wednesday: Analyzing the Turkey Effect; How Many Parties Will Take to Form A Coalition?

Citizens in the Netherlands will vote on Wednesday for a new government.

It’s going to be a mess forming a coalition.

The above from Dutch Opinion Polls.

Political Party Explanation

• VVD is the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy. VVD is led by prime minister Mark Rutte.
• PvdA is the Labour party. PvdA is in a current coalition with VVD.
• PVV is Partij voor de Vrijheid, Geet Wilders’ annti-immigraton eurosceptic Party for Freedom.
• SP is the Socialist party. SP is in opposition against the Second Rutte cabinet.
• CDA is the Christian Democratic Appeal party. From 2010 to 2012 the CDA was a junior coalition partner in a right-wing minority cabinet with the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), supported in parliament by the Party for Freedom (PVV).
• D66 is the Democrats 66 party whose main objective is to democratize the political system. It seeks to create an American-style presidential system.
• CU is the Christian Union. The CU holds socially conservative positions on issues such as same-sex marriage, abortion, and euthanasia. It is Eurosceptic while maintaining progressive stances on economic, immigration and environmental issues.
• GL is the GroenLinks (green) party. GroenLinks describes itself as “green”, “social” and “tolerant”
• SGP is the Reformed Political Party. The term Reformed is not a reference to political reform but is a synonym for Calvinism. The party favors the re-introduction of the death penalty in the Netherlands. They base this on the Bible, specifically on Genesis 9:6, “Whoso sheddeth man’s blood, by man shall his blood be shed: for in the image of God made he man.” The SGP opposes feminism, and concludes, on Biblical grounds, that men and women are of equal value (gelijkwaardig) but not equal.
• PvdD, Partij voor de Dieren, is the Party for the Animals. Among its main goals are animal rights and animal welfare, though it claims not to be a single-issue party. The party does consider itself to be a testimonial party, which does not seek to gain political power, but only to testify to its beliefs and thereby influence other parties.
• 50+, 50 Plus, is a pensioners’ interests political party.

Coalition Math

1. It takes 76 seats to form a coalition.
2. All of the parties have ruled out entering a coalition that contains Geet Wilders’ PVV.
3. Take away Wilders’ 24 PVV seats and another 14 seats from SP and it gets rather problematic coming up with 76 seats given the varying views.
4. VVD+PvdA+D66+GL = 27+9+16+19=71
5. VVD+PvdA+D66+CDA = 27+9+16+21=73

In regards to point number 3, is the CU or SGP likely to agree with the socially tolerant GL Green party?

At Least Four to Tango

In a  Bellwether to European Populism, Bloomberg reports that it will take at least 4 to tango.