Courtesy of Mish.
The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model’s latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be-released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS.
FRBNY Nowcast March 10, 2017
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast Model for first quarter GDP looks like this:
GDPNow vs. Nowcast Synopsis
- From February 3 to March 10 the FRBNY Nowcast Model rose from 2.9% to 3.2%
- From February 1 to March 10 the GDPNow Model fell from 3.4% to 0.9%
- Both models use many of the same data inputs
Nowcast Detail
GDPNow Detail
