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Trump Error, Day 75 – “I Regret Nothing”

"I regret nothing

That's what Trump said this weekend in his Financial Times Interview and I wonder if Trump knows that's what Deputy Fuhrer Rudolf Hess said at his Nurenberg trial?  Among other non-regrets Trump discussed is his tweet about Obama wire-tapping his phone, which he claims "is being proven" and the TrumpDon'tCare Bill, which he claims is "still in negotiations."  Trump doesn't just not learn from his mistakes – he doesn't believe his mistakes actually happened.  

It's a very dangerous week in Trumpland as the President meets with President Xi of China at Mar a Lago because nothing says "man of the people" like a 126-room, 110,000 square foot house with 58 bedrooms (but only 33 bathrooms so a real bummer when everyone is getting ready at the same time!).  Leading up to the historic meeting with China, Trump decided to open with an ultimatum, saying: "If China is not going to solve North Korea, we will.”    

We'll see how that plays out on the World stage, there's already a rumor that North Korea is planning to test another nuclear missile to coincide with the meeting on Thursday and Friday – so expect lots of market turmoil ahead this week as the rumor mill swings into full gear.  

China is very likely to be see as a loser in these talks, even if they win because Team Trump will spin it their way, regardless of reality.  Meanwhile, China has bigger fish to fry as bond defaults are ticking up with 9 in the first quarter vs 29 all of last year.

As you can see from this Bloomberg Chart, rates have been rising fast as the PBOC has put the brakes on leverage and, like our Fed and most Central Banks is also seen on a rate-raising path. This has caused about $20Bn worth of bond sales to be scrapped in Q1 due to the "unfavorable" environment but, if the environment continues to be unfavorable – there will be a serious lack of funds and a lot of these companies are juggling the books to stay alive as it is:

“Weak companies can’t sell bonds, which adds to the pressure on their cash flow,” said Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank Co. in Shenzhen. “The pace of defaults will continue. It will be even more difficult for weak companies to sell bonds because corporate bond yields may rise further — the current yield premium doesn’t provide enough protection against credit risks.”

China's ETF (FXI) is a good way to play China short for the week.  It's April now so I can't tell you our Member play (free samples are over) but we'll probably buy a put that should make a quick 30-50% by the end of the week.  Perhaps though, we'll come up with something more creative using the China Ultra-Short (FXP) – long, of course (now $27.29).  

Our only fear is that Morgan Stanley (MS) starts working for China because whenever someone needs a boost (and has a lot of money), MS can find something bullish to say about you.  Tesla (TSLA) has been going through the roof on positive analyst spin (and they did deliver over 25,000 cars in Q1, so there's something to it) and now OPEC is getting the MS love with a favorable report saying "less visible" crude stockpiles, including China, Japan and "floating storage around the World" have declined 72Mb this year.  

Image result for morgan stanley oil market manipulationIn other words, despite the obviously massive gluts in the US and Europe, on the other side of the World in obscure and unofficial sources, there may be less oil (USO).  If MS is having trouble finding the 72M missing barrels (assuming that's not total BS in the first place), they have no further to look than our own EIA report, which shows US oil inventory jumping from 1.181Bn barrels on 12/23/16 to 1.226Bn as of 3/24 – a gain of 45Mb in the US alone in just 3 months.

We're very happy to be short on oil, just under the $51 mark at $50.75 (/CL) this morning as shuffling a few excess barrels around the globe does nothing to put a dent in our 1.2 BILLION barrels of oil sitting in inventory in the US (6 months worth of imports and 80% of our imports are from Mexico and Canada, not OPEC).  You will be reading a LOT of articles today pumping oil because they are desperate to get the price higher ahead of the April sell-off but it's the sell-off (into contract rollovers) we're betting on.

After that, we'll be happy to go long into July 4th and, after that, short again because nothing OPEC says or does will really help them address the massive supply/demand imbalance that exists in the World.  Think about it, the only way they have cut 1.5% of global production is to have 18 months worth of historic meetings that led up to a 6-month agreement and now, 3 months into it, they are declaring victory – even though they've done nothing to actually end the glut – they have merely stopped adding to it.

Image result for global oil glut"Yes, sir, your family is still drowning at the bottom of the pool but we've cut back on filling it by 1.5% so nothing to worry about, right?"  A glut is "an excessively abundant supply of something" and no one is denying we have an oil glut at the moment.  Stopping your excessively abundant supply from getting more excessive and more abundant does not solve the problem and, even as I write this – I can't believe I have to try to make this clear to people…

All that oil has to be stored and the storage eats into profits, which makes speculating on oil less profitable and speculating is about 60% of the price of oil.  That's why you are seeing so many oil-positive article this weekend and that's why firms like Morgan Stanley are pitching in to bail out their oil clients – whatever it takes to bring some money off the sidelines.  They'll promise you anything and they will say anything but, behind the curtain, there's 1.2Bn barrels of US oil they need to unload. 


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  1. Trump / Phil – What's dangerous is that many are now getting outrage fatigue which might be part of the plan. Do so many outrageous things that people lose focus so there are no consequences!

  2. I might need some of that:

    Admiral Szymanski says experiments found that operators monitoring screens reportedly maintained peak performance for 20 hours — rather than experience the usual drop-off in concentration after 20 minutes.

  3. If TSLA can stay above 287.50 today, has a good shot at hitting 300.  Extra 1000 cars is obviously worth over 1Bn to TSLA even if they lose money on each car.  And MS reiterated an overweight on them which is becoming a weekly thing.  Jonas nose is so far up Musk's ass that Musk's breath smells like shit.

  4. Good reading about Brexit:

    In truth there are precious few opportunities that Brexit will bring, and an awful lot of costs. Those of us of a certain age have got used to losing votes of one kind or another, but in the past you could generally point to some group or class that gained from our loss. What has happened over the last few years has been something quite different: a democracy voting for things that will make almost all of the people worse off, to satisfy the interests or ideology of a minuscule minority.

    The article is worth a read!

  5. this brexit stuff is so silly the uk has been resilient since the referendumspeedy resolution of political uncertainty stirling down market up massively economy running at a 2.6% clip everyone felt it was a disaster let's see how it rolls long UK..let's see where how EU fares after French and German election.

  6. Good Morning.

  7. Outrage Fatigue – I'd agree with that. It sure feels that way. Then again, If you come from a dysfunctional family as I did, you might say it's all perfectly normal, until you leave home…. :)

  8. rustle, gross language is offensive and you have lost your point. 

  9. TSLA passes ford in hope market participants will now realize how much it is inflated.

  10. TSLA why the preoccupation? he's a marketing genius and if two or three of the myriad of innovations he is working on are successes theses prices could easily double we shorted AMZN because it wasn't making money ouch MUSK is no less intelligent than BEZOS and his madness seems to have an accretive/consolidating effect on all of these moving parts. 

  11. Fords 640K per quarter cars vs 25K cars is a ridiculous valuation.  

  12. @newt

    Are you serious?  It's a word, describes something, get over it.

  13. Good morning!

    Looks like TSLA wants to hit $300.  Now you know why we can't play that one in the OOP!  Meanwhile, in the STP, we have:

    We're going to roll our 3 short April $265 calls ($25.50 = $7,650) to 6 short June $300 calls ($15 = $7,500) for about even and our April $290 puts ($9) can be rolled to the June $300 ($26)/$270 ($12) bear put spread at $14 so $5 out of pocket there means we're spending net $2,500 on the adjustment and we still have a $15,000 potential spread for net $6,740.  

    I vote for first selling the new short calls and waiting to see if things calm down before buying back the originals.  We risk losing $3,000 more if $300 breaks – we can live with that!  

    Obviously good as a new trade!  

  14. TSLA is only 3.5Bn away from GM.  They put out about 10mm cars each year.

  15. /KCN7 > Burr > Hope you enjoyed the round trip :)

  16. I did.  I sold out @ 143.50, so I missed a bit of the pop.  Now waiting for 142 again to go long and then buy at the $1 lines and have…….. patience!

  17. rustle – try to be more sensitive  – words matter.

  18. @latch

    Maybe you should advise Trump on that message

  19. Back from a restful week in Cancun.  Got to try GOGO on American Air and United.  Gogo is soso.

  20. Big Chart – Now the Dow and NYSE are looking like they'll retest the 50 dma and SPX and RUT are weak-bouncing off theirs – nothing to capitulate over. 

    Outrage fatigue/StJ – Hey we certainly got it with Bush and that guy should be on Mount Rushmore compared to Trump!  

    Image result for george bush mt rushmore

    Good Lewis article, StJ but I do agree with Angel, the UK got very little benefit from the EU and a lot of headaches.  They WILL make new trade arrangements – just like every other independent country on Earth.  Where are the statistics showing the great benefits derived from the EU?  I seriously haven't seen them.  The EU is kind of like Obamacare – they never really combined their Governments and they don't act as a single nation so the whole thing is a bit dysfunctional at best.  

    Image result for benefits of eu economy

    Nice dip in /TF let me get back to 4 short with a stop on 2 at 1,380.1

    TSLA/Angel – Well now that we're shorting it I do care.  It's always been silly, now it's annoyingly silly.  Yes, Musk is a genius promoter but, one would hope, that over the long run the markets will discover that.  No luck so far…

    Serious/Rustle – I find it crude and unnecessary as well. 

    /KC/Burr, Aquila – What a wild ride that thing is!  

    GOGO/Hanj – Their old system sucks, the new system is good but it seems a lot of airlines are now giving WiFi away.  Maybe it's GOGO backbone but I'll be watching earnings very closely. 

    Rural/1020 – Another stealth crisis gathering steam.  

  21. From Bloomberg : Jeff Bezos is Now the World's Second Richest Person Last week Bezos probably added as much to his net worth as Trump is worth

    Bezos, 53, added $1.5 billion to his fortune as Inc. rose $18.32 on Wednesday, the day after the e-commerce giant said it plans to buy Dubai-based online retailer Bezos has a net worth of $75.6 billion on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, $700 million more than Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Buffett and $1.3 billion above Ortega, the founder of Inditex S.A. and Europe’s richest person.~~ Bezos remains $10.4 billion behind Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, the world’s richest person with $86 billion.

  22. I apologize for the format.

  23. Phil – I still have a /TF short @ 1371 and I didn't average up yet.  SO… I know I should have.  But, should I avg up here, or what?  Do you not think /TF will hit 1371 again?

  24. Had 5 short TF at 1381. Got back to 2 short 1383. Let it ride to 1340

  25. UK / Phil – Lots of unresolved issues still. I don't know that anyone can really tell what's going to happen. Look at the issues with Scotland and N. Ireland. There is a lot of potential for disruption. The UK benefited not from getting money from the EU although they negotiated a better deal than the rest, but mostly from the open markets and especially the financial markets. There is one reason why the majority voted against it in London. But we'll see… Remember, countries that have trade deals with the EU like Switzerland pay a hefty price for it, so the Brexit savings will at best be very minimal. And not the 300Bn promised by Nigel and Boris.

  26. the problem with the eu if you are a net payer not so good..if you're Germany not so just is a failed notion in my with the intercine strife boiling over with refugee crisis it's all getting very clugey

  27. Le Pen in Merkle out could be a tsunami

  28. FXI trade:  As discussed in the post above, it's a good time to short China and FXP is the Ultra-Short ETF, so let's try the following in the OOP:

    • Buy 10 FXP May $25 calls for $2.50 ($2,500) 
    • Sell 10 FXP May $28 calls for $1 ($1,000) 
    • Sell 3 CHL Sept $55 puts for $3 ($900) 

    That's net $600 on the $3,000 spread that's $2,000 in the money to start so not a tough bar set to make up to $2,400 (400%) in short order.  China Mobile (CHL) is my favorite Chinese stock and I would love to initiate a position on them so it's good cover in case Chinese stocks go higher and, if they don't, we can begin working on a position from there.

    In the STP, we can make this same trade with 10 short CHL puts and we'll make it 25 of the bull call spreads. 

    And wheeeeee! on the indexes!  

  29. Phil/TSLA

    Good morning!

    Will contact Greg- thanks.

    What are we doing with the short April $275 puts? Leaving them as they are and putting some kind of stop on them?

  30. /TF/Burr – Well lucky for you it's now working out however, by playing it correctly, I'm up over $5,000.  If you are not going to be able to scale in – you should use tight stops.  There's two ways to play – not doing either is simply throwing money out the window.  

    Speaking of /TF – 1,368 should be a bit bouncy (1.25% line) but, if that fails, we could be heading for a 2.5% correction.  Still, if you have more than you were comfortable with – this is a fantastic spot to lighten up and stops should now be over 1,370, of course.  

    /TF Latch – I guess it's working now.  Glad I gutter mine out but I was not happy over the weekend.  

    Brexit/StJ – OK, so savings will be "minimal" but that's not the same as damaging.  So why would they stay in and, if the UK exits and prospers – they certainly won't be the last ones out the door and, if you lose a couple of the big guys – that will be the end of it.  Even as it stands now, it's basically Germany and France bossing the rest of Europe around now.  

    TSLA/Maya – We'll leave those.  If they come in, we'll be so happy about our short calls we won't care about rolling the puts.  They are well-covered by the new spread.  

  31. /TF I stopped out at 1368.5. I'll be looking to reload 1x around 1375 and 1380 (bounces) 

  32. /TF/Phil, stopped out at 1370.  how high do you think we bounce?

  33. I don't think savings is the issue I think the realization is that EU is not the trade juggarnaut that was first envisioned decades ago and that on paper in might seem a set of plausible strategic alliances but in practice subject to translation.

  34. VIX showing some signs of life, but we are having a hard time breaking out of that 11-14 range! 

  35. Bounce/Lunar – Thinking is never a good idea on these things.  We fell from 1,390 to 1,368 so 22 points is 5-point bounces to 1,373 (weak) and 1,378 (strong) and if weak fails then we're probably consolidating for a move lower (most likely).  

    EU/Angel – The sum of the benefits of the EU are nothing more than a trade pact like NAFTA or TPP.  The universal citizenry is nice too but could also be legislated.  

    VIX/StJ – Oh come on, you have to be satisfied with this nice spike, right?

    At least we know it's possible for it to go higher…

  36. Phil I am not undermining your play on FXP But I see you picked on my arm chair trade CHL still good today obviously for a much relaxed return of 2.1 % per month.

    I set it up before. Buy stock at 55.36 and sell the Sep 55/55 straddle, sit back and count the dasies.

  37. Wow, there goes /TF after a failed bounce attempt.  Other indexes should follow, /NQ is the laggard but what's going to get AAPL to go lower ($143.50)?  Nothing likely intra-day so not likely the Nas has any dramatic fall either.  Sill, only down 0.38%, which is 0.2% behind the others (and 1% behind /TF).  Same 5,420 line we always short after falling from the 5,440 or fight line.  

    CHL/Yodi – I've always liked them, keep forgetting to add them to the LTP.   If China isn't failing, they are probably consolidating for a nice move higher.  

  38. RGR – big surge on news: Gun Stocks Continue Higher, Ruger Up 4.58%, American Outdoor Up 4.77%; BZ Note: FBI Background Check Data Released Earlier Show 3rd Highest March Figure Ever, 3rd Consecutive Month Sequential Growth

  39. Scottmi –  QUIK has pulled back.  Good opportunity to pick up some more, IMHO.

    Still think it's going to be a multi-bagger.

  40. Well I got out with a small profit.  I don't mind scaling into /KC or /CL but I'm cautious with the index's as I get burned.  Anyway Phil, please let us know when you are looking for a reload short


    What do you think about /NG off the 3.15 line long?  The contract has 23 days left.

  41. Phil

    Is Velocity Shares 3x Inv Natural Gas ETN (DGAZ)

    A good cover UNG?

    Maybe the buy the stock no options or a put spread on UNG

    Or what would you recommend?


  42. Panera Is Exploring Possible Sale After Receiving Interest

    Popping on this rumore. Already expensive stock.

  43. Just as a note on SBUX.  My local SBUX is always jammed.  Early morn, mid morn, after work.  

  44. Albo / QUIK,

    What's your premise they may be a multi-bagger?  Looking at a monthly chart from 2001, they do have big runups then sink back long periods of no gains.  I do see a big increase in average volume starting around 2010.  Are you thinking IoT will be the catalyst possibly?  Thx!

  45. Great chart summary of the Obama years – shows you whether or not your opinions are grounded in reality…

    Fox and Trump claim to have "blockbuster proof" that Obama was spying on him but no major paper is taking them seriously.

    In a burst of four Twitter posts starting at 5:15 a.m., Mr. Trump sought again to turn attention away from the investigation into contacts between his associates and Russian officials by pointing back at Democrats. He has argued repeatedly that “the real story” is how President Barack Obama’s administration targeted him and how Mrs. Clinton and her associates had ties to Russia, as well.

    “Such amazing reporting on unmasking and the crooked scheme against us by @foxandfriends,” Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter on Monday morning. “ ‘Spied on before nomination.’ The real story.”

    In another post on Twitter, he added: “@FoxNews from multiple sources: ‘There was electronic surveillance of Trump, and people close to Trump. This is unprecedented.’ @FBI”

    /NG/Burr – Too dicey to call short-term but I sill like /NGV7

    DGAZ/QC – Never played it, never looked at it.  A lot of those things are nightmares to play with massive decay.  I'd rather hedge UNG with UNG options I think.

    PNRA/Pstas – That's a shame, they are a very good restaurant, I hope they don't change. 

    SBUX/Burr – Lines everywhere, so crazy.  And, as I noted last month, now they are selling $80/lb coffee and those are moving too.  Their food stuff seems to do well and, best of all, I see them constantly experimenting and changing drinks – always keeping things fresh. 

  46. Rustle – "Jonas nose is so far up Musk's"

    TSLA is a poster child for speculative yield and momentum chasing. GM annual revenue $155B; annual profit $4B; employees 216K; 2015 9.8M vehicles sold. TSLA annual revenue $3B; annual profit -$900M; employees 13K; 2015 60K vehicles sold.  TSLA $291 while GM at $34 brings something to the greater economy, but the Gullible Geckos don't care, they'll get theirs, in the end.

    And if you don't already know, I recommend Montana Skeptic over at Censored Alpha. We made fast friends when I penned Tesla: The Prestige?  Montana manages a $1B trust portfolio and specializes in being uber intimate with Elon's shenanigans.

    Here is an apropos video of the Flim Flam Man sweet talking an investor and the ending which many may be headed for. The Skeptic is so far up into the cult of the Teslarians, he can tell you what ol Musky had for breakfast, lunch and dinner. In-n-Out.

  47. <b>Those who lost out on the Fed’s “wealth effect.”</b><p>Here’s a mystery: <b>Has this “wealth-effect” economy that the Fed so beautifully engineered since the</b> …

  48. MOSCOW — Two explosions were reported Monday afternoon at two subway stations in St. Petersburg, as President Vladimir V. Putin was in the city for a meeting and a speech.<p>The state-owned Rossiya 24 news channel reported that explosions had occurred at the Sennaya Square and Technology Institute …

  49. The right to protest is fundamental to American democracy. The country was born, after all, out of decades of civil disobedience by people angry about taxation without representation. (In Washington, FWIW, we are still angry.)<p>But according to United Nations human rights investigators, this very …

  50. by Capitalist Exploits – Apr 2, 2017 7:10 PM<p>This industry will explode in the next few years. Investors, keep a close eye on it!<p>by williambanzai7 – …

  51. MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. — Over the years, Google trained computer systems to keep copyrighted content and pornography off its YouTube service. But after seeing ads from Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Wal-Mart appear next to racist, anti-Semitic or terrorist videos, its engineers realized their …

  52. by Sprott Money – Apr 3, 2017 10:48 AM<p>The Trump Administration has threatened to withdraw US protection for NATO countries that don’t spend 2% of …

  53. SHANGHAI — Until it became the subject of China’s latest property-buying frenzy, sending shares of construction companies soaring and leading the authorities to close local real estate offices, the area around Xiongxian County was known primarily for its donkey burgers.<p>The residential and …

  54. Trump Aides’ Disclosures Reveal Explosion in Lucrative Political Work

    Donald F. McGahn, now President Trump’s White House counsel, made $2.4 million as a lawyer with a client list loaded with deep-pocketed conservative groups, from Americans for Prosperity, backed by the conservative billionaires Charles G. and David H. Koch, to the Citizens United Foundation.<p>Mr. …

  55. U.S. developers ramped up construction spending in February to the largest amount in nearly 11 years, led by more building of homes, highways and schools.<p>The Commerce Department says construction spending rose 0.8 percent in February to the highest level since April 2006, after two months of …

  56. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shortly after the opening bell in New York, U.S., March 22, 2017. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson<p>(Reuters) – U.S. stocks reversed course to trade lower on Monday after New York and other states challenged the Trump administration for illegally …

  57. SBUX they all getting nervous about the clown!!! Drinking more coffee at what 5$ a cup??? you can buy 1/2 Kg of coffee for that!!! But no milk!

  58. No major paper/Phil – there is no major paper *I* can take seriously….

  59. Jeddah – These three articles fro SA are a good place to start your due diligence.  They are not my primary source, but tell the story pretty well.

    ~~QuickLogic: Under The Radar Semiconductor Turnaround Poised For Liftoff

    ~~Quicklogic: Technology Licensing Deal Targeting IoT Market Opens New High Margin Revenue Stream~~

    QuickLogic: Buy The Pullback




  60. Amazon this morning announced the launch of Amazon Cash, a new service that allows consumers to add cash to their balance by showing a barcode at a participating retailer, then having the cash applied immediately to their online Amazon account. The service will support adding any amount …

  61. (Reuters) – Newer cancer drugs that enlist the body’s immune system are improving the odds of survival, but competition between them is not reining in prices that can now top $250,000 a year.<p>The drugs’ success for patients is the result of big bets in cancer therapy made by Bristol-Myers Squibb Co …

  62. The U.S. is the world’s largest holder of emergency crude stockpiles, but now it’s selling off reserves, while China, the second-largest, is taking advantage of low crude oil prices to fill storage.<p>And earlier this month, for the first time in history, China bought crude oil from the U.S. Strategic …

  63. If Congress passes a law banning the EPA from regulating carbon dioxide, climate action will go to the courts.<p>When President Richard Nixon created …

  64. QUIK/Albo – FTR pulled back too…  I'm good with QUIK for now! Still seeking more weak players/short plays. MRVL and DSW were good from Friday.  SPY puts paid well (closed on kiss of 50dma). Looking to reenter SPY puts if it fails 234.50. If it recovers 235.50 (lines from my current version of the 5% rule, using weekly high/low for previous week), may close the MRVL and DSW puts.

    Separately, is it just my system or is TOS really -SLOW- today?

  65. Despite an eight-day losing streak that ended last Tuesday, the stock market has generally been buoyant in the opening weeks of the Trump administration. The bullish mood could be a self-fulfilling prophecy and lead to continuing gains for a while.<p>Yet important measurements — some of which I …

  66. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana on Sunday said he would vote against President Donald Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court, complicating Republicans’ efforts to confirm the judge without a fundamental Senate rule change.<p>In a statement, Tester called the nominee, Judge Neil Gorsuch, “a smart …

  67. Analysis for the Guardian finds changes due on 6 April will also wipe thousands off payments for bereaved families<p>A government shakeup of welfare payments being introduced on Thursday will push a quarter of a million children into poverty while wiping thousands of pounds off payments for bereaved …

  68. By Robert Guy<p>Matterhorn Asset Management’s Egon von Greyerz reckons prices for gold and silver are bargains and investors should be looking to buy …

  69. US stocks turn lower on Wall Street as automakers sink

    NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are mostly lower Monday, the first day of trading in the second quarter. Tesla is rising after it disclosed a jump in quarterly deliveries, but other car makers are slipping after reporting March sales figures that disappointed investors. Banks and energy companies are …

  70. Thanks, Scott.  You've had some good picks on Optrader's site also. 

  71. Elon taunting the shorts. The balls on this guy…

  72. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction no longer applies to US politics. Before the end of this week, Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate …

  73. The ousted national security adviser itemizes payments, revealing at least $5,000 from Kremlin-funded media network.<p>Former national security adviser Michael Flynn reported payments of at least $5,000 for a speaking engagement with the Kremlin-funded English language network RT, new documents …

  74. South Africa lost its investment-grade credit rating from S&P Global Ratings for the first time in 17 years in response to a cabinet purge by …

  75. PNRA,,, funny, last Friday someone sold 600 Jan18 $220 puts for $7.55,  now about $3.80

  76. <i>Submitted by Gordon T. Long of MATASII</i><p><b>SELF INFLICTED ABUSE</b><p>In the fall of 2015 we released a video study entitled: “The Coming Global Auto Abyss – <i>Too</i> …

  77. Earlier today, the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in February:<p>Construction spending during February 2017 was …

  78. Perhaps no one is more surprised than Jeff Gennette, 55, that he ended up working for <b>Macy’s</b> (M) , or even a retailer. When he graduated from Stanford …

  79. Those who say that Marine Le Pen cannot get past the second round are the same as those who said that Trump could never win.<p>Dan Primack<br>• 1 hr …

  80. Crude Oil Marketwire delivers vital intelligence to help you make critical decisions. Delivered daily direct to your desktop, Crude Oil Marketwire …

  81. Natty – Yes, the Teslarians are very reminiscent of the Taserians and the Applearians of yester year.  Although, both of them eventually got to cash in big.

  82. Gone with the Headwinds : Global Productivity

    Author/Editor:<p>Publication Date:<p>April 3, 2017<p>Electronic Access:<p>Free Full text (PDF file size is 1736 KB).Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view …

  83. Everyone is worried about the subprime auto market, including Neuberger Berman Group Fund Manager Steve Eisman.“Banks make mistakes on credit …

  84. Donald Trump on Jan. 11, explaining his “plan” to “separate” from his business interests before assuming the presidency.Spencer Platt/Getty Images …

  85. Numerous critics have asserted that President Trump’s promises to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US ignore the looming threat of robotic automation.<p>But the reality may be even further removed from Trump’s vision than critics believe.<p>Across the US, companies of all sizes are turning to robots …

  86. Panera Bread Co. is exploring strategic options including a possible sale after receiving takeover interest, people with knowledge of the matter …

  87. Noam Chomsky discussed Trump, Russia, history and the<p><i>The following is an</i> <i>transcript of a recent public interview at the University of Arizona with linguist and political commentator Noam Chomsky by Dr. David N. Gibbs.</i><p><b>David Gibbs:</b> The main issue on everyone’s minds is the inauguration of Donald Trump …

  88. I do believe Musk will deliver massive returns to his investors and by the way he already has

  89. Dwindling Odds of Coincidence

    We are still not conclusively able to connect the dots on the question of whether there was any coordination or collusion between members of Donald Trump’s campaign and the Russians who interfered in our election to benefit him, but those dots do continue to multiply at an alarming rate.<p>First, and …

  90. Inside every iPhone and iPad are dozens of small components made by suppliers whose businesses are tied to Apple Inc. As Imagination Technologies …

  91. It has taken three weeks, and numerous European Central Bank speakers, for the market to completely row back on its expectations for higher interest …

  92. I have an order in build another short position on /TF starting with a sale at 1375

  93. “What is most worrisome about Trump is Trump himself. He is a man so unpredictable, so reckless, so petulant, so full of blind self-regard, so untethered to reality that it is impossible to know where his presidency will lead or how much damage he will do to our nation. His obsession with his own fame, wealth and success, his determination to vanquish enemies real and imagined, his craving for adulation — these traits were, of course, at the very heart of his scorched-earth outsider campaign; indeed, some of them helped get him elected. But in a real presidency in which he wields unimaginable power, they are nothing short of disastrous.”

    LA Times:

  94. America’s factories continued to expand in March at a robust pace, demonstrating momentum in an industry that struggled for the better part of the …

  95. By EconMatters<p>We discuss the low approval ratings, and Donald Trump`s poor start to his administration in this video, and lay out what we expect gets …

  96. If Marine Le Pen convinces France to embrace her anti-euro stance, Mario Draghi will likely be called on again to be savior of the single …

  97. Pstas – I appreciate your comments re FTR last week. What do you think of something like ALG?

  98. After hitting its highest level in over two years in February, ISM Manufacturing for March saw a modest pullback. Economists were expecting the …

  99. Markets Insider<p>US automakers are sliding on Monday after reporting weaker than expected March sales numbers.<p>Ford’s stock price is down 2.19% at $11.39 and GM’s stock price is lower by 3.25% at $34.21 as of 10:05 AM EST.<p>Ford sold 236,250 vehicles in March, a 7.2% percent decline compared with March …

  100. Tesla started 2017 with its best-ever quarterly vehicle production and delivery results, in line with the guidance given to shareholders earlier this year. While that’s a positive development, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to CEO Elon Musk’s goal of quintupling Tesla production to a half …

  101. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) plans to create a specialized unit that will prioritize the agency’s investigations into claims of …

  102. Air pollution from power plants has wanderlust. It never stays still. It rides the wind, drifting far from its source, visiting homes miles away with potentially harmful effects.<p>New research released Monday documents the impact that pollution from a coal-fired plant in Pennsylvania had on four …

  103. Back in /kc @ 140.95

  104. Reports that proceeds of heist funded jihadist groups emerged after investigators ignored key witnesses in the case<p>”An OTR conversation with you is …

  105. DLPH – why were they whacked today? Bad auto numbers come out somewhere?

  106. I guess along with F, GM, etc.

  107. (and now I see Phil's news item!)

  108. ~~Democrats have enough votes to filibuster Supreme Court nominee Judge Neil Gorsuch .

    GOP to go nuclear ? 

  109. guns and ammo   as Scott said earlier, those stocks up today.  Also, lots of put selling in war stocks.

    Check out May put options in GD, RTN, and NOC

  110. of course they are going to go nuclear Harry Reid is going onto the field for the coin toss as an unofficial team captain for the GOP inaugural game of the Simple Majority Bowl 

  111. FB / Phil,

    Do you think its time to short them ? they definitely has a great platform but seems they have concurred the world and everyone is on Facebook so is there more room to grow ?

    Thanks as always


  112. Guns/Stock – positive and negative same release: ~~Watching Gun Stocks As FBI Firearm Background Data Out Showing March Checks Down 3.6% YoY, Up 8.9% Sequentially.. Make anything you want out of it. Today, it's a pop. Tomorrow…?

  113. Phil – On /NGV7 I took a long at 3.31.  Where would you DD from that entry?  

    Also what is your /NG or /KC position?  

    All done with /TF?

  114. SPY – somebody just ran some stops for shorts a few minutes ago. nice little spike.

  115. Sorry everyone – I missed the NLY trade that was recently added to the OOP (according to the April portfolio review).  I can't find as I am scrolling back through the last few articles.  Could someone post it if they know it.



  116. Volume is actually above average on the NASDAQ for now:

  117. FU FU portfolio!!!! 

  118. Hi Phil – Any thoughts on BBBY before earnings Wednesday?  

  119. Jeff – This is what I have from March 20th. There might be more. Not sure:

    NLY/Mnmarsh – Thank you!  That's the one I actually meant.  Another one we can add to the OOP but also for the LTP.  NLY is a good, solid REIT that pays a fat, $1.20 dividend on an $11.10 stock.In the OOP:

             Sell 10 NLY 2019 $12 puts for $2.90 ($2,900) 

    In the LTP: 

                      Sell 30 NLY 2019 $12 puts for $2.90 ($8,700) 

  120. AKAM/Phil   at what price would it look attractive?

  121. ACN – gap down presumably on purchase of Genfour, no terms disclosed. Like the business in general. Tiny debt (just for fun?), healthy cash and significant buybacks (from 1.6 to 2 billion per year last few years), steady growing revenue and total equity, and even a 2% dividend.

  122. ACN – now why didn't I buy in 2012 when I last did some chartwork on them?

  123. Killograms/Yodi – LOL, we get half a POUND of coffee for $4.  Doesn't stop us from going to SBUX anyway…  Convenience trumps price and, of course, there's the whole experience of going with your friends and enjoying it together.   Most people don't have that much to do with their time so killing 30 mins for $5 and getting a nice coffee is a good entertainment value.  

    These are the kind of things we should be investing in in a leisure society.  Less and less people will be working and they need cheap entertainments to fill up their days.  

    Paper/Scott – Well I guess that's Russia's job done then, they've convinced you that you can't trust the US Government or the US Media – good first step to unraveling society.  When the citizens don't know what the truth is, you can easily manipulate the population.  

    Meanwhile, I don't think it's Russia at all – I think it's China.   Russia isn't smart enough to pull this off but China could do it AND implicate Russia.  It's not Russia running around buying US companies…  In fact, Chinese immigrants are plowing into Russia as well.  And didn't we just buckle on Taiwan in 10 seconds after one phone call to the negotiator-in-chief?  

    Sino-Siberia Map

    The 1.35 billion Chinese people south of the border outnumber Russia's 144 million almost 10 to 1. The discrepancy is even starker for Siberia on its own, home to barely 38 million people, and especially the border area, where only 6 million Russians face over 90 million Chinese. With intermarriage, trade and investment across that border, Siberians have realized that, for better or for worse, Beijing is a lot closer than Moscow.

    The vast expanses of Siberia would provide not just room for China's huddled masses, now squeezed into the coastal half of their country by the mountains and deserts of western China. The land is already providing China, “the factory of the world,” with much of its raw materials, especially oil, gas and timber. Increasingly, Chinese-owned factories in Siberia churn out finished goods, as if the region already were a part of the Middle Kingdom's economy.

    Not only that but what part of the World benefits most from Global warming?  

    That thing about programmers not getting Visas is ridiculous.  Just say no to being globally competitive!   You can't quantify on paper why someone from Ireland is a better programmer than someone else from Montana – just because they are both programmers doesn't mean they both fit the job.  The best and brightest live all over the World and the SV crowd has already told Trump what a disaster this would be and they go ahead and do it anyway.   Score another point for China! 

    /TF/Jeff – Tsk, tsk – and after I told you that 1,373 was the weak bounce line!  

    Come on guys, I only believe in one form of TA (granted, I invented it, but at least it works) so at least give it a chance when you are setting targets.  cool

    April 3rd, 2017 at 11:14 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    Speaking of /TF – 1,368 should be a bit bouncy (1.25% line) but, if that fails, we could be heading for a 2.5% correction.  Still, if you have more than you were comfortable with – this is a fantastic spot to lighten up and stops should now be over 1,370, of course.  

    Nas turned sharply lower right after I called it too (11:54):

    DLPH/Scott – Got caught up in the bad auto numbers.  People sell whole sectors when that kind of stuff happens.  

    Nuclear/Albo – Yes, essentially the GOP will now change the whole concept of the balance of power that is central to the Constitution by requiring just 51 votes to confirm Gorsuch.  

    "It is depressing; I'm very depressed," said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. "We're all arguing against it, but we don't know any other option."

    Gee, how about nominating a candidate who is neutral and 60 people can agree on – AS IT WAS INTENDED TO BE!!!  Wow, these people sicken me!   When the Dems lowered the threshold in 2013 for lower courts, ALL the Senators agreed the Supreme Court was off-limits.  Now that the GOP has power, they are going to break the Constitution.  

    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has publicly promised to confirm Gorsuch on Friday no matter what, which means either eight Democrats need to side with 52 Republicans to clear the 60-vote hurdle to move forward with Gorsuch's nomination, or McConnell will invoke the nuclear option to lower that hurdle to 51 votes to make it happen.

    McConnell can use the same procedural motions Reid invoked to overturn a ruling from the presiding officer in the Senate to lower the threshold — a simple up-or-down vote that will forever alter how the chamber operates going forward.

    You know what made this the greatest country on Earth – the fact that we were ruled by impartial laws and judges and people could trust the overall stability of the system.  This is just day 75 folks…

    Guns/Stock – Viva the Revolution!  Those gun guys are going to double their audience as Liberals start arming themselves…

    FB/Pat – Just like China, I don't like to bet against someone with 1.6Bn people.  FB is not outrageous, even at $140 as they are dropping $6 to the bottom line so p/e 23 for a company that was $4.23 last year, $5.40 this year and $6.60 next year?  Where do you get growth like that.  Also, go try Oculus in a proper demo somewhere, where you can play it for 15 mins and think about the additional revenue stream of 50M of those (Playstation numbers) plus licensing from the software systems and monthly subscriptions to let players do connected role-playing – not to mention THE PORN!!!! 

    These games are like movie money – 10M games at $50 each = $500M and a new blockbuster comes out a few times each year.  FB doesn't have to pick winners and losers (but they already have a studio to develop their own) – they get a buck or two from every game sold.  

    Oh, and this:

    Revenue 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014
    Total Revenue 27,638,000 17,928,000 12,466,000
    Cost of Revenue 3,789,000 2,867,000 2,153,000
    Gross Profit 23,849,000 15,061,000 10,313,000
    Operating Expenses
    Research Development 5,919,000 4,816,000 2,666,000
    Selling General and Administrative 5,503,000 4,020,000 2,653,000
    Non Recurring - - -
    Others - - -
    Total Operating Expenses - - -
    Operating Income or Loss 12,427,000 6,225,000 4,994,000

    Still want to short them?

    /NGV7/Burr – Well, figure /NG is at $3.13 and you entered around $3.15 so if I were playing /NG (I would not), I'd DD at $3.05 to avg $3.10 so the same logic applies about 0.10 lower but /NGV7 has a lower delta so I'd shoot for $3.07 to avg $3.10 but I wouldn't go down that path at all unless I was going to DD at $2.90 and HAPPILY wait until the fall to get paid.  As to what do I have – no /NG at the moment:

    Submitted on 2017/03/29 at 7:15 am

    Oil right at $48.50, Brent failing $52, /RB failed $1.65 again but Honey Badger don't care and is at $3.21 but $3.37 on /NGV7 and that's enough for me at the moment.   Hopefully we drop back to $3.25 and I'll get back in with my 0.12 cushion.

    You're a lot less patient than I am with these things I suppose. 

    As to /TF – Did it go over 1,370?  Then I'm done.  Took the /KCN7 money too and will look to get back in tomorrow – hit $1.45 today and I was in from $1.40 – I'm not a greedy person.

    Submitted on 2017/03/24 at 3:03 pm

    /KCN7/Latch – 4 @ $141.2 and, of course, I'll sell 2 near even ($139.90 at close)

    I do still have 4 /CL shorts $50, waiting for a better dip on those or $51 to add more.  

    NLY/PB – Thanks.

    BBBY/Datra – I think the same logic that's pushing HD and LOW to do well should play at BBBY because it's not really discretionary items but stuff you need like fixtures and beddings – people seem to be getting comfortable spending on "necessities".  Nonetheless, we only have 5 short 2019 $40 puts in the LTP, so just a stab at them to keep an eye out.  Hopefully they do miss and we can begin building a serious position.  But, if not, we'll keep the $2,250 we collected and move on to find another bargain.  

    AKAM/Stock – I am not a big fan of cloud companies but at least they are on the services side more so than the server side and half their revenues still come from running the online shopping backbones and another 11.5% of their revenues comes from running game backgrounds – that's an area I'm liking too (see above). 

    Unfortunately, at $58 with less than $3 in earnings, they are not too cheap but not too expensive for a tech co ($70 was too expensive and $50 would be much nicer).  They are falling because they are buying Soasta, which will dillute earning a bit and, of course, integration issues.  Also, though they are a great company, these businesses run in cycles where they spend heavily on R&D and depress margins for a couple of years and then they coast with their cool new tech for a couple of years and then back to the R&D table.  At the moment, they are early in the R&D cycle so a rough couple of years ahead for earnings.  

    Still, you can sell the 2019 $50 puts for $5.80 and I'd keep an eye on those.  Best case (presumably) is AKAM hits $50 and the delta is 0.28 so figure $7 would be great for those puts while a break back over $60 would only cost you the 0.80 (not even) and then it's still a nice sale so literally no harm at all in waiting to see where they end up.  

    ACN/Scott – Nice steady moves along the rising 200 dma – seems to be a good floor ($115) but I'd hope for a nice market sell-off to drag them lower and then jump in.  They had two $15 dips and 2 $12 dips in the past 18 months so it's not likely you'll never see them low again.  This is just a $9 dip.

  124. LB – Huge April $45 puts sales/buys today, as it continues to "slip slide away"

  125. Phil,

    SBUX 5$ For that price I can invite half the campsite to drink coffee with us. You just have the American way of thinking. Getting together with friends does not mean you need to spend 20 cups of coffee 100$ for 20 friend to get together.

  126. O sorry I forgot the tip so 125$

  127. SBUX/Yodi – No we are not as frugal as you Europeans because we know our Government will be taking care of us in our old age, so why save money?  blush

  128. China / Phil – I have been saying it for a long time and mention it to my Russian colleagues all the time. There will be a time soon when China will make a play for the resources in Siberia. It's just too tempting and Russia is not getting any stronger – just looks that way. Heck, Putin would sell Siberia to China for $1T! 

  129. Just look how twisted things are in the US TSLA up 18$ while the car industry in the US is tanking. BMW MBENZ Audi, VW you just name them, they all showing fantistic profits here!!!!!

  130. ~~How Trump and China’s Xi could stumble into war.

    This article is from a very well respected expert on China.  Scary stuff, and pretty easy to imagine given Trump's personality.

  131. Nothing like a good war to rally the base Albo :-)

  132. Phil and just to top it, I do not see a SBUX around here but on my bike round in the morning, I stop at one of the super coffeerias buy two super cups of coffee two cognacs, penuts and olives on the house for 5€.

  133. If TSLA hits 309-310, it becomes our largest US car company and the only one losing money.

  134. Albo – that well respected expert also has a book to sell:  Graham Allison is director of Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and author of “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?"

  135. Phil tf barely made weak bounce today so why stop out completely? You had said somewhere that if it didn't make the strong bounce that you thought it might be consolidating for. 2.5% drop, so why not hold a short or two? Would you short tf again if you see some continuing downside movement? 

    I made over $2k shorting tf today, still have one left and looks like I'm going to regret not having more. Also $1200 on CL , unfortunately I had the May 280/300 TSLA put spread which I rolled to June 270/300. Getting killed on that one today.

  136. I think we need to transfer Musk to GILD to spin some straw in to gold!!!!

  137. Scott- ALD

    Not sure it was me who posted on FTR but thanks anyway.

    As to ALD looks like a good solid company without the debt overhang so many others have. However, seem fully priced with projected 11% earnings increase for coming year and now at a 21 p/e. Also, very limited on options. 

  138. /ES /YM /NQ all bounced up, but not /TF.  Odd?

  139. $1Tn/StJ – If he could put it in his pocket – for sure!  

    VW/Yodi – Amazing how little damage they took from widespread fraud.  The World has gotten very strange that we accept some things with a shrug. 

    War/Albo – Trump is nothing but a prep-school bully.  Very tough talk when surrounded by his friends but raise a hand to him and he curls up on the floor and offers you anything to leave him alone.  We're not going to war.  He folded on Taiwan and he'll fold on anything once pressure is applied.  We're only 75 days in, by day 150, the World will be walking all over us with our weak, inexperienced leader.  It's amazing that, after all these years of tough talk from the GOP, they elected a guy who's going to make America a global pussy.  

    Olives/Yodi – With coffee?!?  You Europeans are strange!  

    TSLA/Rustle – $298.50 baby!  

    /TF/Craigs – Because I was up over $5,000 so why risk anything overnight?  When I see something else that's obvious, I'll trade that but my /TF premise played out over the weekend.  Not to mention the other indexes bounced so maybe /TF will bounce so why risk a penny when there's no particular fundamental reason to short it between today and tomorrow morning?  As I said earlier, the Nas is way stronger (almost flat) and if /TF fails to hold 1,368 then I'll look for a fresh horse – but first I'd like to at least get even on oil before I start throwing more money around.  

    Musk/Yodi – He should rent himself out to any company needing a boost.  I bet you in a single quarter he could put together some BS that would boost almost any company.  

    Odd/Burr – Well /TF is the broadest and hardest to manipulate but can't read much into anything on a Monday.  

    Russell making a bearish W pattern, caught in downtrending top and bottom:

    Nikkei too:

    Nas and DAX are the new honey badgers:

  140. TF/Phil- Well, when you put it like that it makes such good sense . Thanks .

  141. Musk / Phil – We used to say the same thing about Bezos… The guy can make any quarter look good no matter what the results are. It's a gift! And that has worked out well for him.

    And I remember Chambers at CSCO who would always snatch defeat from the jaws of victory! Clearly the guy was a good CEO, but could use some BS lessons from the 2 masters.

  142. And it looks like Trump could also use some lessons from them as well! He is still at BS 101 and that works only on a limited set of people.

  143. i also exited early at around 1365 and got back in when it looked like weak bounces were all we got. Stopped out now at 1368.50 and will look forward to seeing your calls tomorrow if there is a trade. Would make my day if the market would realize that Tesla is a bit overvalued and my bear put spread would make a buck.

  144. Scott – Good point !   It's still a considered opinion, book or no book.

  145. TSLA- Phil it seems that unless the market tanks we have nothing to help our shorts of TSLA until earnings on 5/2 and we will just need to be patient, would you agree? 

  146. I’m not sure what lesson I’m supposed to take away from the Washington Post’s revelation that Mike Pence does not dine with women alone, nor attend events where alcohol is served unless his wife is present.<p>Option A: That more enlightened people, with sound liberal values about sex and gender, have …

  147. <i>Authored by Matt Taibbi Of Rolling Stone</i><p><b>Putin Derangement Syndrome Arrives</b><p>So Michael Flynn, who was Donald Trump’s national security adviser before …

  148. Americans’ daily self-reports of spending averaged $100 in March, about the same as their $101 average in February. This is the highest spending …

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  150. Is the ice beginning to crack beneath Bill O’Reilly? Mercedes-Benz has told <i>CNNMoney</i> that it has “reassigned” its advertising away from Fox News’ ratings juggernaut <i>The O’Reilly Factor</i> after the <i>New York Times</i> published details over the weekend of five settlements that O’Reilly or Fox News has made …

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  162. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority board voted Monday to approve a $477 million contract for work to repair New York City’s L train tunnel, a major project that will close the tunnel between Manhattan and Brooklyn for 15 months.<p>The project on what’s known as the Canarsie Tunnel is needed to …

  163. GDPNow Bumps First Quarter GDP Estimate to 1.2% Following ISM Report: A Mistake?

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  164. A day after Tesla reported its best quarterly production and delivery results in company history, shares of Elon Musk’s clean transportation and power company shot up to their highest since its public listing and boosted the company’s market value beyond that of vastly larger Ford Motor Co.<p>Tesla …

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  166. What Brexit Means

    Author: , Senior Online Writer/Editor, Economics<br>Updated: March 24, 2017<p>Global Conflict Tracker By Center for Preventive Action<br>• The Sunni-Shia Divide …

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  183. Phil/TF/bounces

    All good. For the record, I was following the 5% rule, I just rounded down to 1365 to make the move a full 25 points. So, 5 point bounces would put us at 1370 and 1375 for weak and strong respectfully. Looking now, it looks like that would've been fine. We didn't hit 1375, so my order never filled. All in all I'm perfectly fine if you want to tell me being 2 points off of your call for bounces is off…that's pretty freaking close in my book so I'm happy! Makes me feel like I've caught on a little bit. 

  184. Copper is at the 2.60 line.  It's been a good play if it holds.  

    Phil, where do you like copper?

  185. 75 days in and the city where i am presently ensconced is sick of Trumps kleptocracy  75 days including Thanksgiving Christmas and New Years have things ever gotten surreal. 

    Amazon Brexit Trump nomination Trump election Renzi out 

    Le Pen in? Merkel out?

    Obama did spy? Trump did collude?

    How's that all look

  186. Still don't think that Le Pen wins Angel… Could be wrong, but still too soon.

  187. Oh and I almost forgot!Tesla Musk might be our a present day Edison..or as many believe a charlatan

    What's real? What do you believe? 

  188. Sainty the fact that everything is changing at this rate is already incomphrehensible

    What is Barack did all that shit and Trump did too?

  189. We are getting down to the short strokes

  190. Did Obama spy on Trump… not directlty, hell until he was elected it was the best joke going, nobody thought he would win. The dems WANTED him, what a joke, they would beat him handily! remember? Now did the NSA record every phone call? Aren't they recording everything? Is Trump included in everything? He freaking won! Get over it, he simply never left campaign mode. Can't imagine why anyone would be surprised at that, it's all he's got.

  191. Good morning!  

    Oil tested $50 but popped back to $50.50.  I missed it so still at 4 short.  angry

    I don't know why it went down and I don't know why it went up yet.  I think Libya production was why it went down.  

    I actually like /CL short here ($50.50) but I'm not adding unless we get to $51.

    BS/StJ – It's a real talent but I guess you have to either believe your own BS or be willing to lie to the people who trust you.

    TSLA/Craigs – If $300 doesn't make people realize $260 is a healthy pullback, nothing will.  And yes, I have great faith in earnings waking people up, hence the roll to June. 

    /TF/Jeff – Ah, well 1.25% and 2.5% and of course 5% moves trump everything.  The rounding is something we do when that would be the normal move (like on the Nas, which has a base of 4,000 so 100 points is the normal 2.5% move, which breaks down to 50 and 25, so we use 25-point lines as significant all the way up.  On the Russell, 1,200 is the Must Hold so 2.5% is 30, so 15 and 7.5 moves become significant.  We don't just pick 25 for any index.  For the Dow it's 440, 220 and 110 but those we use 100s on as the Dow does tend to like it's 100 lines.  S&P bases at 1,850 (though we will soon have to capitulate to 2,000) and that's 46.25 so again, we go to 50 and 25 and 12.5 when looking for significant moves on that index.  So yes, you have caught on and I wasn't chastising other than to say I said 1,373 for a reason (I didn't think 1,375 would be made if we were weak bouncing).  

    That's where I would start scaling back in with a tight stop over /TF 1,375 (or a break below 1,368) and then try again at the strong bounce line with a stop over the next 5-point line.  

    Copper/Burr – I love $2.50 but you'd be lucky to see that again so $2.60 with tight stops is a good long.  I'm just worried about China this week so tight stops!

    Spying/Angel – Good summary for those caught in the Faux News Bubble, which has grown massive this year:

    The phony Susan Rice story, explained

    Sadly, there's very few places left where you can actually get the real story as the Billionaire boy's club MSM is very happy to get their tax cuts if all it costs is the truth.  Editors "don't want to hear about" anti-Trump articles because "it's not what the readers want" – I get that a lot from things we submit.  You don't even know all the things you don't get to read – the system is designed so that there's a casual censorship and people who write for a living (most of the good writers) simply don't get to eat if they don't learn to play ball.  

    If the Washington Post hadn't paid Woodward and Bernstein for months while they chased down Watergate – there never would have been a Watergate.  That's all it takes to silence the press and that lesson was learned in 1972 and 45 years later, they've fixed the problem.  

    HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT – Everyone watch "All the President's Men

    Le Pen/StJ – Didn't we say that about Trump?

    Musk/Angel – I believe he's a real visionary.  Not much of an inventor himself but, like Jobs, able to drive people to achieve his vision but, unlike Jobs, his vision is not a profitable one and, also unlike Jobs – he doesn't care and is willing to sacrifice all the investor cash in the World to get what he wants.   That's the difference.  Do the ends justify the means?  A lot of great things were accomplished by people who drove their companies to bankruptcy – I love Musk for building a solar future as well as pushing us back into space but that doesn't mean I'd be dumb enough to invest in a car company that has no chance at all in making the kind of money it's priced for before we make contact with aliens.  

    NSA/Mkucs – Yes, everything is recorded somewhere but did Obama order the spying of Donald Trump – apparently not other than MAYBE Trump was caught up in spy operations that were keeping tabs on Russian operatives and Trump and his team were meeting with Russian operatives and were subsequently recorded doing their illegal crap.  In fact, Trump's ploy re. Obama may be an attempt by the target of an ongoing investigation (Trump, not Obama) to have an excuse to have his people go through the evidence before the FBI is done with their investigation.  Clever actually. 

  192. Told you I didn't like the way they were shifting:

    • Shareholders of Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) should expect to "receive minimal recovery for their existing shares" as the company prepares for potential bankruptcy proceedings to restructure debt and liabilities of $14B.
    • "We currently believe that a comprehensive restructuring plan… will require losses or substantial dilution for other stakeholders," Seadrill said in a statement.
    • SDRL -39% premarket

  193. Yup, got it Phil. Thanks.

  194. Kc at 139 and added 1. 

  195. sdrl – nice call Phil