Courtesy of Mish.
On December 24, 2016, Ukraine Rebels Agreed to a New Indefinite Truce. It is the latest in many truces that neither side has honored since the Minsk Protocol, was signed on 5 September 2014.
The Minsk ceasefire agreement completely collapsed in January 2015, with renewed heavy fighting across the conflict zone, including Donetsk International Airport and Debaltsovo. A new ceasefire, called Minsk II, was agreed to on 12 February 2015.
Minsk II largely held if you don’t count near-daily artillery fire and periodic small-unit actions that have killed many hundreds on each side. However, there are numerous signs another major outbreak might be at hand.
Speculation on a renewed major outbreak comes from an April 9 Website Post by Alexander Khodakovsky.
That poster, from the preceding link, is reminiscent of a WWII call to arms. The message on the poster translates as “Join the Peoples’ Militia!”
Wikipedia notes Alexander Khodakovsky is the commander of the pro-Russian Vostok Battalion formed in early May 2014 during the 2014 insurgency in the Donbass. Khodakovsky is a former commander of the Alpha special unit of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). During the 2014 insurgency in the Donbass, he left Ukrainian state service and became the leader of the pro-Russian “Patriotic Forces of Donbass” in Donetsk Oblast, and later (until July 16, 2014 when he was replaced by Vladimir Antyufeyev) the Security Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).
Reader Jacob Dreizin emailed that other warning signs of a potential offensive include an intense barrage of warlike statements from Ukrainian officials including the Interior Minister and the National Security Council chief, as well as social media chatter from individuals claiming to be local residents, about unusually intense Ukrainian military aircraft activity to/from the Kramatorsk airfield (about 30 miles from the frontline) and other locations in the Ukraine-controlled part of the Donbass.
In other posts, Khodakovsky speaks of unusually heavy concentrations of Ukrainian material near the front, and warns that Ukraine is likely to launch an offensive soon, with an eye to victory before or around May 9th, a day which has symbolic significance as it is not only the start of the Eurovision contest (hosted in Kiev this year) but also “Victory Day” in Russia and the former USSR, such that deciding the war on Kiev’s terms around this date would deliver a major psychological blow to the Russian government and to all pro-Russians in Ukraine.
