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Monday Madness – Le Pen Victory Leads to All-Time Highs

Marine Le Pen is still in the running.

That was supposed to be a disaster but, in fact, she is polling so far behind her remaining opponent, Emmanuel Macron, that Europe has decided not to worry about the Far Right taking over France and the Euro and the European markets are staging a massive rally this morning.

As of 5am (I have to be in NYC today for the Nasdaq open), the French markets are up 4.3% with Italy right behind at 3.8%, Spain 3.4%, Germany 2.75% and even the UK, who already elected to leave the madness far behind, are up 1.8%:

The Euro has blasted 1.5% higher, sending the Dollar down 1%, back to 98.90 (where we're long /DX as that's silly) and the US Futures are up 1% so far, but that's woefully behind the reaction the European equities are showing.  Fortunately, on Thursday, in our Live Member Chat Room, we hedged the upside by going long Japan's Nikkei, saying:

Nikkei (/NKD) is now the laggard to the upside and also benefits from a rising Dollar so 18,600 is a good long line for them. 

As you can see, the Nikkei popped 400 points for us over the weekend, yielding gains of $2,000 per contract and outperforming the Dow, which also pays $5 per point, by 100%.  Fortunately, we took the short money and ran mid-day Friday and our portfolio adjustments left us less bearish than we had been (and we went long on Oil (/CL $50), Silver (/SI $17.80) and Coffee (/KC $133), so we'll see how they perform in this rally as well.

Not that anyone cares about actual news but Israel bombed a weapons depot in Southern Syria in retaliation for a mortar attack from Syria upon the Golan Heights on Friday.  That's the kind of news that used to send the markets lower but I guess war in the Middle East is the least of our worries when Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un both have their fingers on nuclear buttons…

And, of course, the US Government will shut down from lack of funding on Friday and Trump still refuses to even discuss a budget that doesn't include a big, giant wall to keep the Mexicans from raping and murdering us which, I suppose, is what he was elected to do and it's Day 93 so next Monday will officially be Day 100 and I don't think Trump wants the Wall to be another check in the loss column as the reviews begin to pour in.

We're closing out the month with economic data from Chicago, Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City ahead of Q1 GDP on Friday, which is now expected to be an anemic 1% – yet does not seem to stop the markets from rallying back to record highs.  Lots of Housing Data:  Case-Shiller, FHFA Prices, New Home Sales, Mortgage Applications and Pending Home Sales as well as Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, PMI and Michigan Sentiment will color hundreds of earnings reports starring:

Meanwhile (and again, I don't want to give the impression that Fundamentals matter in this market), looking at another kind of earnings – the Average Weekly Earnings have gone negative in 2017, coming off strong comps of the previous two years but again, how is it we're at record market highs when the GDP is in the crapper and the consumer clearly is not improving their spending power going forward?  

 

This is still very much a hope-based economy and these sort of rallies can unwind very quickly when the bubble bursts.  Though the French Revolution Part Deux is off the table, there's still North Korea, Syria, Iran, Venezuela, Japan Debt, China Housing, US Shutdown and Trade Wars to contend with so PLEASE, make sure you have some hedges in place – they are insurance, they are supposed to lose money in a bull market but that doesn't make them bad bets!  

Our Short-Term Portfolio has lost $40,000 during the Trump Rally but the Long-Term Portfolio, which it protects, has gained over $100,000 and, more importantly, that net $60,000 gain is locked in and we cashed out some major positions last week, leaving us 81% in CASH!!! and yes, we will miss out 40% of a bigger rally, if it comes – but we will sleep very well each night, knowing we are well-protected.

It's not May yet so I can't put a new hedge in the free post but you know the drill.  The Nasdaq Ultra-Short (SQQQ) at $36.89 is still my favorite hedge because stocks like Amazon (AMZN) at $900, Tesla (TSLA) at $310 and Netflix (NFLX) at $144 are ridiculously over-priced and ripe for a huge fall on any sort of earnings disappointment.  

Speaking of Tesla, both Tesla and Apple (AAPL) are going to be fighting for cobalt, which makes up 35% of a lithium-ion battery and, currently, global demand is for 885 tons but Macquarie Research projects that ramping up to 3,205 tons in 2019 and 5,340 tons in 2020.  If they are even close to being right, then Scientific Metals (SCTFF) will be my new favorite penny stock (0.58) and there are no options on them, so it's a straight play on a US supply of cobalt that the Trump EPA is likely to approve for mining.  

Like any penny stock, it's insanely risky and Matt Bohlsen at Seeking Alpha has some more traditional alternatives but none have any fun options for us to play so more fun to put a craps bet on SCTFF and see if we get a big winner.   As I'm talking about the stock, I will not be buying any until next week and I will not pay more than 0.60 and probably will pick up $600 worth for my kids at most as it's no skin off their backs if it's worthless but maybe some nice money down the road if it works out.  That's the kind of bet this is.

Get ready for an exciting week! 

 


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  51. Good Morning.


  52. As predicted, huge rally in Europe following the French elections results – basically a reverse Brexit result.

    My predictions are that Macron will win the second round. Probably not by 20%, but over 10%. Angel posted numbers this morning regarding the percentage of people who voted for pro-Europe and anti-Europe candidates. Clearly, Europe is not very popular right now in France but the 2 main anti-Europe candidates have different messages. They are both populists for sure, but there is a xenophobic message in Le Pen's program that doesn't exist in Mélenchon's. I don't see his base voting massively for Le Pen in the second round for that reason. Le Pen will get some votes from some Fillon supporters, but once again, not close to the majority IMO. Macron should keep on hammering the fact that Le Pen is Trump and Putin's favorite candidate!

    BTW, Trump is so ignorant – he is probably not aware of the anti-semitic current in Le Pen's base. Or maybe he is and he likes it! I don't know about herself as she is very careful, but the old guard is clearly there. 


  53. FU GNC!!!!


  54. SAINTY I don't think Trump is anti semite he has more Jews around him than a mohel at a bris

    I do think Le Pens strength is immdiately being dismissed by MSM in France and world wide; complacence in this envirnoment isn't good


  55. Le Pen

    Pe len

    Pe ten

    Petain


  56. Angel – I don't think that Trump is anti-semite, but I don't know about some of his associates and he doesn't seem to check much in the background of his potential allies!

    LOL Rexx!


  57. And BTW, Angel, she did worse than they expected in the first round. People around her were talking about getting possibly 30%. The polls turned out pretty accurate this time. I could be wrong, but it's still too soon for someone like her. Of course, we could have a massive terrorist attack in Paris and that would do it for her, but that's not my prediction.


  58. VIX getting hammered… Down over 15% now [spot, not the futures]. 

    BDC not getting close to winning his bet on SVXY!


  59. The power of Phil :

    SCTFF is up almost 10%.


  60. oil is getting crushed.  man. 49.10.


  61. market up 200+

    GNC,M,GILD,LB,FTR,JO,F,TGT—need flea collars for these dogs--dangit!


  62. Not good still going down on a big up day.   

    I'm in transit.   


  63. I'm up to 8 /CL long at 49.79. Anyone else long /CL?


  64. Rut broke down a bit, watch the Nas below 5,500 for a good short but very tight stops above.  

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  89. Phil, I know it's more art than science… but when you say short NQ at 5500 with tight stops – can you give an example of what do you mean by "tight" stop?


  90. Led by slower growth in employment-related indicators, <b>the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.08 in March from +0.27 in</b> …


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  93. We seriously might have the dumbest AG in the history of the US:

    Sessions: Erroneous tax credits to ‘mostly Mexicans’ could pay for wall http://politi.co/2pTrdtg&nbsp;


  94. Saw pics of the interiors of the Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt and the Bolt is way nicer.  The model 3 (unless they change it from the current view they show) is very generic looking.  Can't wait till you see what Audi, BMW, Porsche and even Ford show in the next year.  That's when I think TSLA gets destroyed.


  95. Coffee down to 1.325.

    Out of /ES short.  


  96. I'm back.

    Caught the Nas short (/NQ) trade just under the wire – I read nothing that indicates this move is anything but a short-lived relief rally but there's been nothing for a long time so need a catalyst to get a proper down move as well.

    TSLA/Rustle – Don't want to wait a year…


  97. Bought a /DX @ 99.


  98. Rustle, you’re so right. Saying that cannabis is as bad as heroin is also just mind-boggling.
    http://www.newsweek.com/jeff-sessions-marijuana-legalization-states-heroin-opioids-568499


  99. http://fortune.com/2016/08/23/tesla-elon-musk-solarcity-bonds/&nbsp;

    shocking how nobody is talking about how Musk made off like a bandit on those Solar City bonds he bought last year… what a crook!


  100. Wow, now /KC getting hit – again.

    Europe closed pretty much at highs, DAX up 3.37%, Euro Stoxx 3.9% – crazy move for a day:

    Doesn't look good for US index shorts.


  101. European markets will be influenced by French polls over the next 2 weeks. If we see tightening then we will see weakness! If they stay stable, so will the markets. Until the German elections! And some people don't want to talk about politics – look at the impact today!


  102. Musk/Torq

    They were supposed to file an 8K last week but never did.  Think they are trying to do some magic to hide the fact that Musk was bailed out of his bonds he bought through Space X.


  103. I'm wondering at what level does Amber Heard dump Musk, if TSLA goes down to 200 or does it have to be below that.


  104. rustle – LOL she is probably waiting to see if he manages to make the milestones on time to get the options payout


    • With a deadline looming this week to avert a U.S. government shutdown, Congress returns to work today as President Trump leans on Democrats to include border wall funding and warns "ObamaCare is in serious trouble."
    • A healthcare vote could also surface this week, along with some type of tax reform announcement, while Saturday will mark Trump's 100th day in office

    • German business morale brightened more than expected in April, hitting its highest in nearly six years.
    • Ifo's business climate index rose to 112.9, from an unpwardly revised 112.4 in March, suggesting executives are more upbeat about the current state of Europe's largest economy.
    • "Germany is growing strongly," Ifo chief Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

    • China stocks tumbled overnight to record their biggest loss of the year, with the Shanghai Composite falling as much as 1.9%, before paring declines to 1.4%.
    • The country's banking regulator said late Friday it will strengthen a crackdown on irregularities in the financial sector, while the nation's top insurance official is being investigated on suspicion of "severe" disciplinary violations.

    Rough session for REITs as low-rate respite ends

    • A sizable whoosh down in longer-term interest rates over the past month had given some hope that perhaps the rate hike cycle was nearing an end, but the 10-year yield – as low as 2.16% at one point last week – has returned to north of 2.30% this morning.
    • Responsible for today's move is relief over the outcome of Sunday's French election, and European stocks are ahead 2%; the U.S. is up 1%.
    • The only sector in the red is the REITs (IYR -1.5%), (VNQ -1.8%). Another income favorite, the utility sector (NYSEARCA:XLU) is flat.
    • Realty Income (O -2.7%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -2.5%), HCP (HCP -3.3%), Vereit (VER-2.8%), Essex Property (ESS -1.9%), Simon Property (SPG -2.4%), Kimco (KIM -2.5%), Public Storage (PSA -2.3%), Government Properties (GOV -2.1%), Stag Industrial (STAG -2%)
    • Investors continue to scratch their heads over lame Q1 trading results at Goldman (NYSE:GS) when the bank's peers all saw double-digit Y/Y growth.
    • According to CFO Marty Chavez on the earnings call, clients were less active in commodities, currencies, and credits thanks to low volatility in certain markets, but that doesn't square with what the likes of Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Citi, and BofA were saying and reporting.
    • According to a report on Bloomberg, however, the bank's distressed-debt desk loaded up on paper from a number of roughed-up names in energy and retail, and incurred some substantial losses.
    • In one example, Goldman held about $200M of Peabody Energy bonds as it got set to emerge from bankruptcy, roughly 10x the amount of other major dealers. That position could have lost about $40M this year.

    Speculators look for bounce in oil

    • Amid the plunge in oil prices last week which brought black gold back down below $50 per barrel, some $45.3M flowed into the VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETN (NYSEARCA:UWT), according to Bloomberg.
    • It was the first inflow for the ETN in four weeks.
    • The non-levered U.S. Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USOfell more than 7.5% last week, and UWT tumbled 20%.
    • WTI crude this morning isn't playing along with the surge in risk assets. It's lower by another 0.6% to $49.32 per barrel.
    • Caterpillar (CAT +2.2%) reports that its retail machines sales were up 1% Y/Y in the three months ending March, with resources industries down 19% and construction industries up 7%.
    • Energy & transportation retail sales in the same period were up 1%.
    • via Bloomberg
    • Upped to Outperform from Neutral are AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) and Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD). Lifted to Neutral from Underperform are U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) and Nucor (NYSE:NUE).
    • On a high level, analyst Aldo Mazzaferro says earnings so far (STLD and NUE have reported) show evidence of improving demand, which should result in better volumes and pricing.
    • For U.S. Steel, Mazzaferro takes note of indicators showing improvement in energy and industrial markets, two area where X has good exposure.
    • +2.5%, NUE +1.1%+2.8% premarket
    • The auto sector is taking the election news out of France very well. Centrist candidate Macron's first-round victory is seen as a positive for EU trade, and thus supportive of automobile sales. In mid-day European trading, BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) is up 3.3%, Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF) is 2.6% higher, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY) trades up 2.6% and it's a 5.3% pop for Renault (OTC:RNSDF).
    • Notable gainers in U.S. trading include SORL Auto Parts (SORL +3.8%), Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU +4.3%), Ferrari (RACE +3.1%), Tesla (TSLA +1.2%), Honda (HMC +1.3%), Ford (F +1%), Autoliv (ALV +3.5%), Lydall (LDL +1.9%), Gentherm (THRM +2.1%), Meritor (MTOR +2.4%) and Delphi Automotive (DLPH +2.9%).

    S&P talks retail defaults

    • S&P Global Ratings posts a list of the retailers seen with the highest risk of a credit default within five years.
    • Topping the S&P list is Sears Holdings (SHLD -3.5%) with a 23.84% probability of default. DGSE Companies (DGSE -1.2%), Appliance Recycling Centers of America (ARCI -1.1%), Bon-Ton Stores (BONT +1.7%) and Bebe Stores (BEBE -0.8%) are all assigned +10% odds of default. Destination XL Group (DXLG +0.7%), Perfumania Holdings (PERF), Fenix Parts (FENX-1.7%), Tailored Brands (TLRD +1.2%) and Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores (SHOS -1.4%) round out the top ten, with default probabilities ranging between 6.1% and 8.1%.
    • "The convenience of online shopping, and the downward pressure it has put on pricing, has radically altered consumer behavior. Most shoppers now browse for value online, and the younger cohort of the prized millennial demographic, some of whom may never have developed a penchant for long afternoons at the mall, clearly prefers that channel," writes S&P Global risk assessor Jim Elder in the report.
    • Hasbro (HAS +5.2%) passed Mattel (MAT -0.5%) for quarterly revenue for the first time since 2000 after a surprising 10% jump in gaming revenue. Operating profit from the entertainment and licensing business more than doubled to $11M during the quarter.
    • Stifel Nicolaus thinks the strong entertainment lineup for Habro this year will lead to more upward earnings revisions.
    • Previously: Hasbro beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (April 24)
    • Previously: Hasbro positive post Q1 results (April 24)
    • Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.
    • Shares of Hasbro carved out a new all-time high of $104.14 earlier before tracking back.

    Microsoft using LinkedIn data to challenge in sales software

    • Microsoft (MSFT +1.6%) is boosting its challenge to sales software leader Salesforce.com (CRM +0.3%) with the first major fruit borne by its $26B acquisition of LinkedIn.
    • Data from LinkedIn — particularly a salesperson's relationships on the business-focused social network — is going into Microsoft's Dynamics 365, and promises to offer ways to salvage an at-risk deal based on artificial intelligence.
    • "I want to be able to democratize AI so that any customer using these products is able to, in fact, take their own data and load it into AI for themselves," says Microsoft chief Satya Nadella.
    • The company's a small player in sales software, but says specialized applications are Microsoft's "third cloud," representing its future, he says.
    • The former chief of Dynamics said in 2015 that it was a $2B business unit, but Microsoft is fourth in sales software behind Salesforce.com, Oracle (ORCL +0.9%) and SAP (SAP +3.8%).

    Verizon launches FiOS gigabit services in East

    • Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is rolling out its FiOS Gigabit Connection, a few months after customers on its Instant Internet saw actual speeds that exceeded a symmetrical 750 Mbps.
    • The gigabit service — actually up to 940 Mbps downstream and 880 Mbps upstream — is available to more than 8M homes in the New York, New Jersey, and Philadelphia areas, as well as Boston; Providence, R.I.; Washington, D.C.; Richmond, Va.; and Hampton Roads, Va.
    • It's the result of fine-tuning Instant Internet with new firmware and diagnostics, Verizon says.
    • It's priced at $69.99/month, or Verizon is offering it as part of a triple-play bundle starting at $79.99/month, going up to $84.99 in year two.

  105. Phil, thoughts on UNG and /NG into the summer? UNG is now 7.36, under the 8P I sold for 2019.  No biggie but, is it a good time to add here?

    /NGM7 trading @ 3.18 and looks like it might touch $3.

    What are the ranges or trades you like?


  106. Hey All – Phil and I talked recently about the interest PSW has in assisting GreenCoin along. I posted a how-to on getting started in crypto trading in general. Welcome to the wild west! It may seem daunting at first, but it's really not. Like anything you just need to commit a little time to learning it and then voila, you're an expert! Feel free to ask questions in here on in the comments of that post.


  107. Phil / SCTFF – good penny stock pick! I'm in for 1000 shares…


  108. BioD –  I have a account with Coinbase and it's linked up to my checking account.  Do you think this is secure?  Or should I have a seperate checking account to link for safety?


  109. Phil/MAT.

    Phil is now the time to get back into MAT.I think you mentioned to wait until low twenties.

    Share price now $21.60 and well down from $33 last August.

    Thanks,

    Dec


  110. Phil / SPG,

    Simon Property Group. What do you think would be a best short play ? There is a mall near my home owned by SPG and recently I see a lot of tenants not extending their leases. Recently PF Changs closed their store

    Thanks as always

    Pat 


  111. Burr / Coinbase, you can have  linked up to one debit card you  refill or  a credit card with a small limit., I  will  follow BDC recommendation.


  112. Burrben/Coinbase – that's a good question. I think it's probably a personal decision. I linked my checking without creating a new account a couple of years ago and have been buying/selling without any issues. Coinbase is a legitimate, US-based operation so I think personally it should be fine.

    When is your first BTC expected to hit your account??


  113. /NG/Burr – I wouldn't add as the future is not certain at the moment.  Solar and Wind have gotten very cheap very fast and it's hard to tell how disruptive that will be to Nat Gas' long-term potential.  We were not expecting a big run this year anyway, maybe $4 and maybe a hurricane to give us a pop but the real impact of LNG exports comes next year.

    GreenCoins/BDC, All – So last week we talked about making an impact in Greencoin by all going out and getting $500 (which is probably money down the drain but a good exercise) so please do your best to follow the instructions, set up a wallet and let us know how it goes (if you wish to play) in comments on that post.  Once we have enough participants, we will be able to come up with a few creative ways to spend our coins. 

    SCTFF/BDC – It's like NAK, they have the rights to a big cobalt deposit and all they need is for the EPA to ignore the horrific damage it will do to the environment if they mine it.  Under Trump, we are uncovering several of these trades that, previously, no rational inhabitant of the planet Earth would have allowed to move forward.

    Image result for strip mining animated gif

    'Merica – F yeah!  

    MAT/DM – We talked about it last week, they lost DIS and Star Wars so I no longer like them.  

    SPG/Pat – I'm leary of shorting the REITs because they've been very creative in filling their spaces.  SPG may be flat but flat is $2Bn in profits, which is a crappy p/e of 30 but, in this environment, no one is getting punished just for high p/es.  Last Q, they had a 16% upside surprise but fell off on weak guidance.  This Q, they aren't likely to guide worse and another upside surprise could squeeze the shorts.  So I'm certainly not long but I think shorting is very dangerous.



  114. Phil/SCTFF – important to remember there are many different Lithium ion battery cathode chemistries of which cobalt is only one, and which currently has the best price/performance. As Co goes up in price though this may not be the case. Also, all of the gee-whiz siliconwire nano-crap stories coming out of "MIT labs" (read: we need to release gee-whiz papers to get tenure), also focus on the inefficiencies of the cathode, so one of these could become a cost-reducing advancement in reality at some point in the future.


  115. Phil

    BHI any trades into earning? On 4-26

     Thanks


  116. I saw a post on my facebook feed "Marijuana is less harmful than McDonalds". I asked who did the study, what was their methodology and if there data was available. No reply.  I wouldn't short MCD at this point, in fact they may benefit from the Munchies effect


  117. So travelers are happier going to China Iran and Turkey? 

    One good bit of news: interest in travel form Russia to US has surged 88% during same period phew!


  118. Cobalt/BDC – Oh I agree, and new tech coming down the pike as well but cobalt is a good story for now and those research papers get a lot of play at the IBanks so, what the heck….

    BHI/QC – Lost interest in them ages ago.  They should be doing well though, not really reflected in the stock price so far but another year at least before they have profits again so not excited to be in them.  Hopefully they miss and fall back to $50 – THEN I'll be interested.

    Now American airlines got into something with a passenger.  

    MCD/CDN – I imagine they have a point but there is a bit of cause and effect to the thing.

    I caught you eatin'
    a11 my burgers and fries
    I love you, baby,
    but you'll have to die
    Ooh, ooh, the burger's mine.

    Both the patties,

    special sauce and cheese 
    pickles, onions and sesame seeds

    mmmm,  mmm put it all on a bun.

    Russia-US/Angel – Yeah but those are just Donald's handlers…  cool


  119. Mat/Thanks Phil.

    Dec


  120. Phil, you probably missed my question earlier: "Phil, I know it's more art than science… but when you say short NQ at 5500 with tight stops – can you give an example of what do you mean by "tight" stop?"


  121. Phil,

    What are your current thoughts on the US $ ? I note that the June 25 UUP call is .69 with uup@ 25.61 (.08 time premium). Also, this morning UUP touched 200dma and bounced.

    Thanks


  122. BDC –  I'd guess today sometime.  I bought 1500 worth of BTC, so a little over 1 coin.


  123. VIX <= 11.  Might be a good time to go long /VX futures.


  124. Burr- I still have too  much invested in KC but I did sell a couple near 134 and bought again at 132, so hoping we don't drop much lower or I will stop out but hoping for a morning bounce again. However if I get lucky and the drop doesn't continue tomorrow, I will not be buying the dips going forward or until we see a move up that isn't followed by a sharp drop. I should have just been content today to lighten my position and take my chances with just one contract and not bought again on the dip. 


  125. TSLA – Earnings must be bad for this much news flow… How are they going to double their network that quickly.

    Tesla updates on Supercharger expansion

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) says its will double its Supercharger network this year to more than 10K locations, including adding over a thousand in California alone. Many of the new Supercharger stations will be in urban centers further from the highway.

    The company also expects to have 15K destination charging connectors globally by the end of the year, up from 9K. The destination chargers will be found at hotels, restaurants and other retail-facing spots.

    "We're moving full speed on site selection and many sites will soon enter construction to open in advance of the summer travel season," reads the Tesla blog post.



  126. FF/hanj – and out this morning. measly 21% gain after commission in 129 days. was calls so don't want to hold through any more decay. Can't believe it was 129 days, though it did seem like -forever-


  127. scott/mi  very good job!


  128. Tight stops/Ellie – It's very arty.  You'll see me doing it at the webinars when we trade the Futures but the best thing to do when you start is to pick a loss you can live with BEFORE starting the trade.  So a tight stop on /TF, for example, which is $50 per point, would be about 1-1.5points against you for a $75 loss.  Now, if you are not expecting to make $150 at least, there's no point in risking a $75 loss in the first place.

    So /TF made it to about 1,403.50 and past 1,401.50 another time so 2 $75 losses before the good cross at 9 which stayed down and made a $5 move for + $250, making the $150 loss back and a small profit.  That's how you play it when you are starting out and, as long as your rewards are better than 2x your risk, you only have to be right 1/3 of the time to make money!  

    Dollar/8800 – I think 98.50 is a very firm bottom and, in general, 100 should hold over time.  Our Fed is simply more into tightening than the other banks and that's what Dollar strength is all about.  The BOJ and ECB have statements due this week so once the euphoria over Le Pen dies down, the Euro should calm and, even if it doesn't, the effect on the Dollar has been disproportionate.  

    Superchargers/Learner – That is such BS, they may have 10,000 UNITS, but nothing like 10,000 locations,  If you read the release, it says they have 5,400 SuperCHARGERS, not stations (probably divide by 4 for the real number of stations).  Then it says they have Destination Charging and that, according to their own literature, is simply a regular (not Super) outlet, so now they are taking credit for the entire US EV-charging infrastructure.   This is why TSLA rubs me the wrong way, they have a very loose concept of the truth in their promotionals.

    Hannity/Angel – Well, the employer tried to get her to go back to the HOTEL, not the hotel room!  Not guilty, of course…  And anyway, he's part of the Fox team, who could possibly question their integrity?  

    6 More Women Allege That Roger Ailes Sexually Harassed Them

    Here Are The Women Publicly Accusing Roger Ailes Of Sexual …

    Choking, Harassing, and Loofahs: Women's Allegations Against Bill O …

    Here's a list of all the O'Reilly/Ailes accusers – Axios

    Fox News and Bill O'Reilly paid millions to women who accused him of …

    Image result for women harassed at fox cartoon

    • Albertsons (NYSE:ABS) is exploring a bid for Whole Foods (WFM +4%), according to Financial Times.
    • Sources indicate that the two companies have held preliminary talks, but no formal offer is on the table.
    • Whole Foods has Evercore Partners in the house advising it on strategy.
    • Albertsons is controlled by PE firm Cerberus Group. The grocery store chain has been on the IPO watch list for a couple of years.
    • The Fate of the Furious (NASDAQ:CMCSA) dominated the box office for a second week, in a weekend with no changes at the top and few competitive debuts.
    • The film, the eighth in Universal's racing franchise, added $38.7M to bring its two-week domestic take to $163.6M. More important, though, is its worldwide total: With foreign grosses at $744.8M, cumulative global box office sits at $908.4M, setting it for the billion-dollar mark this week — that, even ahead of a debut in Japan coming this next Friday.
    • The Boss Baby (FOX -1.7%FOXA -1.5%) held its No. 2 slot with $12.8M (four-week domestic total of $137M), and Beauty and the Beast (DIS -0.4%) stayed at No. 3 with $9.97M (six-week domestic total of $471.1M).
    • Meanwhile, Born in China (NYSE:DIS) was the best of the debut films, hitting No. 4 with $5.15M (a solid total for just 1,508 theaters); thriller Unforgettable (NYSE:TWX) opened at No. 7 with $4.81M.

  129. BDC – have you looked into the website "Kraken" https://www.kraken.com/

     

    it seems to be a crypto currency trading platform of sorts, not sure how much it differs from something like coinbase. But im new to this crypto stuff so figured you might have a more informed opinion on it! 

     

    -thanks


  130. WFM/Phil – interesting all the flogging of potential sell.. last week it was KR, now ABS.  I thought the KR rumor was not quite right – don't see how WFM would really offer much to KR…  ABS might be a more interesting possiblitly, they have a history of bad purchases.!


  131. /nq  double top or a bullish break out? 


  132.  Can't decide if I short or want or leave it alone 


  133. Pharmboy -  thoughts on SGYP?  got assigned some with average cost of 4.50, hold on and keep selling covered calls to lower cost basis and/or sell more puts?  Any advice much appreciated.  Thanks


  134. Pharm,

    any thoughts on IDRA? TIA


  135. Phil, now that banks are reporting, still feel good about shorting Jan FAS at 45 or 50?


  136. Phil/JO 

    Phil, I have Sept 17/22 BCS with sept 19 short puts.  Any adjustment needed with KC going down everyday?

    Thanks


  137. UAL – i'm still bearish. added a new put diagonal play here.  New set is long June 72.5, short May 70 put diagonals to add a little faster theta burn. (last week's put diagonal is a Sept/Jun 70/65 @ 3.73). I'll stop out on two consecutive closes over $72.


  138. Phil/TSLA,

    I have the June 300 Puts.  Should I add another short put? May be sell May 290 for 6.40? or even June 280 for 7.30?


  139. Phil,

    thanks for the dollar fundamentals


  140. Geeze.  Look at the VIX crater.  10.89 and still falling!  My UVXY trade from 4/12 (I'm currently short 2 $60 2019 calls), is showing a 45% gain.  Not bad in less than two weeks.


  141. amazing pops of SAN and FEZ on the French primaries.. such nonsense!


  142. SODA – still can't believe it's still going!


  143. Can this market continue? Interesting bullish comments from Tom McClellan in last weekend's FSN newshour.. segment starts at 10 minutes in: http://www.financialsense.com/tom-mcclellan/may-top-june-swoon


  144. esrx


  145. abx coming


  146. WFM/Scott – Well they were on our Watch List as a good bargain but that was before they popped.  M&A rumors run wild at market tops – it's a good way for the Banksters to boost sectors without actually buying shares.  

    /NQ/Japar – NYSE finally over 11,500 so we'll see if it sticks.  Too scary to short at the moment but very tempting.

    FAS/Taihu – I did until today's pop.  Nothing too exciting in earnings – they are just following today's rally.  

    JO/Rookie – I'd give it a couple of weeks and see if things stabilize before panicking.  They're at $18 and the short $22s are 0.35 so you may as well buy them back because if JO moves up, you are better off without them and if JO moves down, you'd want to roll and sell other calls anyway.  

    UAL/Scott – Very little damage so far.  

    Keep in mind, it's not like you see something other people aren't seeing – you are simply assuming something the vast bulk of UAL traders seem to disagree with.  

    TSLA/Rookie – In the STP, we now have the June $300/270 bear put spread with short $300 calls and it was all a net $14 credit (not including previous losses) with a small current loss.  Earnings are 5/3 and a bit of a crap shoot as to how people will react, so bear in mind it's a dangerous trade.  

    You're welcome 8800.

    VIX/Palotay – What, us worry?

    SODA/Scott – Way more staying power than I would have thought.  


  147. UAL/Phil – price rules, and why I have such a close stop.  Also, fuel prices may not rise for airlines, and we've already seen how CNBC will talk down the passengers and praise the heroic efforts of airline management to, you know, do what they do in the face of the unwashed plebian hordes.


  148. CL- long day for anyone long oil futures. After a bit of a pop early this morning which I used to lighten up we had another big move down where we have been just about all day. I averaged my price down here, and will just wait and watch as it seems the news isn't telling us anything. Patience is my mantra, with tight stops at 49 and an avg of 49.42.


  149. Weak dollar and oil is still stubbornly low, so I am a bit nervous with my long positions but I am not throwing in the towel just yet. Perhaps later this evening?


  150. amen Craigs on CL -  We need some OPEC announcement, Nigerian rebel attacks or a nice bullish inventory report as we head into warmer weather


  151. abx down 2percent ah


  152. 3%


  153. ESRX getting torched.  Down 15%!


  154. crs101010 – actually haven't used Kraken before, though I have heard about it before. I'll check it out though, thanks!


  155. ESRX-  looks as if their contract with a major customer is kaput- ANTM. That is 17% of revenue so a big hit. No position but has been on my list to watch. Now need the dust to settle.  


  156. Phil,  

    ESRX, thoughts on this?  This is perhaps most worrying.. Until rolloff in 2019, the Anthem contract is going to increase as a % of profitability for ESRX.  Replacing 15-17% of revenue (higher) by 2019, might be a tall order.   Market is pricing in part of this roll off immediately.

    The co's Anthem contract generated approximately $2.2 billion and $1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA, or approximately 31% and 26% of its total adjusted EBITDA, in 2016 and 2015, respectively. Under the terms of the contract with Anthem, Anthem's contribution to the co's profitability, as a percentage of total EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, has grown and the co expects it will continue to increase and exceed its contribution to revenues, as a percentage of total revenues, and that revenues, EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA attributable to Anthem will increase as the contract nears its termination in 2019. The contribution of the Anthem business to the co's financial results reflects the underlying structure of the 10-year contract, which was negotiated and executed as part of Express Scripts' $4.675 billion acquisition of NextRx, Anthem's in-house PBM, in 2009.


  157. Meanwhile ATI is up 7% today on an upgrade and Trump's steel imports antics… pluses and minuses…


  158. I just followed the price action on /CL today and shorted at the 49ish line after the break of 50 and drop below, keeping a .20 trailing stop hidden.  Worked down to 49.10 where I bought the short back.

    If /KC stablizes for another day, I'll add around 1.32 hopefully and then scale in and out working the basis down from my 1.39 long.  

    Long /DX


  159. let's hope that tax on softwood doesn't include Christmas trees 

    this benefits lot's of lumber ops in us but not liking effect on consumer

    who lobbied for this



  160. Noam really pulls out all the stops, proclaiming the Republican Party's attitude of calculated denial to our rapidly-developing climate catastrophe (and possible apocalypse) as worthy of bearing the label of the most dangerous political organization in all of human history.

    When everyone in your party is just swell with risking the future of everyone and everything on the planet -up to and including the potentially permanent interruption of the complex of planetary biogeochemical processes responsible for Earth's ability to sustain life- simply to safeguard the current and future economic welfare of your donors, whether out of psychopathic self-interest or because of some demented worldview extolling the virtues of "freedom", "liberty", "patriotic duty" (and whatever other bastardized terminology that's being bandied about these days on the right) then there is no floor to the party's criminality in its service to financial capital. Worse than the Nazis and ISIS? Yes, the GOP may very well be.


  161. Most dangerous: I think I am going to stick with the Nazis for the time being….


  162. Reading some negative news about FTR this evening.  This article had me thinking I should buy more FTR.  http://www.nasdaq.com/article/3-top-telecommunications-stocks-to-buy-in-2017-and-1-to-avoid-cm774713

    Anyone have good sources for reliable news? 

    Learning to be a value investor – thanks PSW! 


  163. Good morning! 

    Things a little calmer this morning but still trending up, DD, MMM, CAT all had good earnings so nothing to derail things.  KO was bit off but their drinks are out of favor and ops, spoke too soon, Dow just popped 100 points while I was writing this paragraph.

    What an insane friggin' market!  

    As to ESRX, now down about 8%, we knew they lost ANTM when we bought them, that's why they were cheap.  We sold the 2019 $65 puts for $7.50 for a net $57.50 entry.  Here's a great article on their business model.  ESRX was at $90 before the lawsuit, now $67.50.  Anthem is 25% of their earnings so it's a fair haircut to $65 but that also assumes ESRX will not get a new client to replace ANTM.   Not only that, but they still have the business in 2017, 2018 and 2019 – while they look to replace their client.  

    Meanwile, they beat and earned $1.33 per now $60 share so p/e down around 15 and up to 20 without ANTM, still a good business in 2020 and a great business now.  

    Wood/Angel – You'll never know who lobbied because the White House no longer releases visitor logs.

    Real estate/01 – It's like a frog in boiling water, too slow for anyone to care – especially no.  Maybe in a decade or two things will change attitude-wise but most people buying homes there, especially the coastal ones, will simply move to the next shoreline if the first house washes away.   

    FTR/Joseph – I really can't get my head around why people hate them so much.  It's like they've never seen a phone company before.  It's an investment-heavy model with a long-term payback – something people just don't have patience for these days but, as a long-term hold, it can be very rewarding.


  164. /KC-getting crushed again. Phil – did you add 2 more at 1.31?